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and 70% target? good luck!Comment -
02/07
WIth the move to -4, BOS now qualifies at exactly 10.0
But, Shaq is out, possibly for awhile. This will be Perkins 3rd start at center. He's only played 7 games, missing the first half of the season due to a knee injury.
When do we start counting BOS games w/o Shaq?
NOR has injury issues.
DAL is a double digit line.
UTA has injury issues.
So, no plays.Comment -
BOS is also a btb game, so no play regardless of injury questions.Comment -
I think you've got to play it 'by ear', but wait at least 3-5 games in any case.Comment -
Guys I hate to be a hater but I have to do it. I'm all for math based systems but this one has huge holes. All this system is actually saying is that a team with a significantly better record will crush a team with a bad record, basically by more than 10 pts, and any time vegas lists its spread at less than 10 you should bet.
The only other factor it takes into consideration is it adds a set amount for home and away.
When vegas makes its odds they take 100x more factors into consideration.
This system takes none of the following into consideration:
1. Some teams play better/worse than others on the road/home (this system simply adds a constant for everybody, but not everybody is the same)
2. The eastern conference loses 2/3 games to the west over the past 5 years. (this is a big deal because it means the eastern conference records are inflated because they play weak teams 66.666% of the time)Take the cavaliers for example this season. They have 8 wins but 7 came against weak eastern teams. This means they actually suck even worse than their record shows when compared with a west team
3. Streaks, teams get hot and cold but it takes a while for their overall records to really reflect a change in performance
4. some bad teams will actually rise up and play to the level of their competition and keep things close, while others will be defeated and roll over and die from the tip off. The same goes for great teams....some will fall asleep and play down to their competitions level and just squeek out the win when they really should have crushed the comp.
5. Sometimes coaches will rest their starters more vs terrible teams.
and a whole bunch of other stuff.........
Please don't come back with the 70% over the past 2 season reasoning (not including this year). The sample size is tiny, so it does not hold much weight. This system is too simple and takes only a teams overall record into consideration. I'd guess at best it is a 52-53% accurate system if it has any merit at all. I really hate being a nay-sayer but this system could have been created by a 10 year old, while vegas odds makers crunch numbers and real life factors for a living. This system simply isn't going to hold water. sorryComment -
Okay, for this completely worthless, don't know why people pay attention to it, probably will lose forever going forward system, I get 1 play today:
SAS -6.5Comment -
So you'd be willing to give me +190 (should be getting +200 according to your numbers) if I take the Eastern conference team any time an Eastern conference team plays a Western conference team?
Let me know, I might be interested.
I might even be able to be talked into doing it going back those 5 years you mention.Comment -
Still waiting to hear about an offer on East vs. West teams.
What do you know, the system happened to luckily squeak out a win.
record update:
3 in a row
7-3 last 10
Definite plays 17-22
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss
01/17 UTA -4.5 (10+) loss
01/17 CHA +5 (fade of PHI -1 or worse) win
01/19 UTA -6 (10+) loss
01/19 IND +4.5 (fade of GSW -1 or worse) win
01/21 SAS -8.5 (10+) win (possible push at -9)
01/24 SAS -5 (10+) win
01/26 OKC -5 (10+) loss
01/29 SAS -8 (10+) win
01/29 NOR -6 (10+) loss
01/31 DAL -9.5 (10+) win
02/02 CHI -1.5 (10+) win
02/08 SAS -6.5 (10+) win
Possible plays 9-6
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) win line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.
01/17 ATL -9.5 (10+) loss lineup changes / Williams has been out for 7 games, CHI is 5-2
01/22 DAL -4.5 (10+) loss Nowitzki hasn't looked good / Pavlovic has played in 6 games, and started the last 2
01/24 CHI -7.5 (10+) win Boozer second game back, had a double double his first game back.
Tied record plays 0-1
12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) lossComment -
Keep 'em coming Barts!Comment -
You may be right, but we're only tracking this to see how it goes. Nobody's betting the farm as far as I know. Call it a hobby.
Only on the road. Record for Eastern conference playing on the road at a Western Conference team for 2006/7 season to present is 385-686 SU (35.9%). Overall East vs. Western opponent is 952-1167 SU (44.9%), which might be a significant trend, but it's kinda meaningless to talk about SU records with NBA where we are betting on pointspreads isn't it?Comment -
Since I'm willing to gamble, and since the West is supposedly SOOO much better than the East, tell you what.
I'll take the East when they are at home hosting a team from the West and I only want +125.
I mean, if the West wins 2/3, you can't pass that offer up, right?Comment -
Let's have some winners todayComment -
Barts you are taking one small aspect of my post and running wild with it because that is the only thing you have. Is the rest of my post accurate? Does the system account for any of those factors that I listed? Sorry I stepped on one of your testicles, I was just pointing out the obvious shortcomings of the system. The west is obviously the stronger conference which this system makes no adjustment for.
Do you not agree with my example of the Cavs? They have 7 wins against the east and 1 against the west. Compare all the conference records. Everybody beats up on the east. This means the guys that get to play the east more ie boston and miami actually have their records inflated compared to the best in the west: spurs, dal, lal etc. Im not saying boston and mia are no good....just saying their records are not a true representation of how good they actually are when compared with teams that are playing better competition and have similar records.
Like I said in my earlier post the only thing this system accounts for is overall record and a basically worthless adjustment for home court. Its too simple, you really might as well flip a coin. I'm sorry I am being a hater, but its just really plain to see if you actually sit down and look at the parameters of the system.
The 2/3 I threw out was a generality. What I was saying was that the west is way better than the east, which is trueComment -
Sorry I apparently stepped on one of your testicles.
I was just having fun with someone who "isn't a hater" but comes in here hating
And then says something which is very wrong.
Is the West better? Yes.
Does the West win 2/3 games against the East - not even close. More like 55%. For someone whos not a hater, I'd have expected a more realistic figure, even for a generality.
The current Cavs are one of the worst teams in NBA history.Comment -
smallbluedonkey its not meaningless to talk about one conference being weaker than the other because this system uses overall record as its main component. The overall records of the best teams in the east are inflated because the =y get to play basically "sure thing" games 2/3 of the time. East plays the east 2/3 of the time. West plays west 2/3 of the time. This system takes none of that into consideration. It really takes almost nothing into consideration actuallyComment -
And, if you had looked through the thread (even as far as the prior page), you'd see where I tell people not to ever follow this, or anything, blindly.
You may feel that this has no value.
I have no objection to you having that opinion.
Others may feel differently.Comment -
02/09
Looks like nothing todayComment -
Being serious.
lets use boston as the example. They are a good team but their record is inflated because most of the time they are playing clev and the other horrible teams in the east.
When boston plays clev this is an example of a "sure thing" for boston.
Bostons win % against the east is 79.4%
Bostons win % against the west is 61%
That is a big difference.
Ask yourself this question. When you use your system to predict a game with boston and the worst in the west: minn., and you are using overall record as your only component shouldn't you at least use the teams overall record when they play the same teams? Because most of the time they are not playing the same teams.
Use boston's record against the west and compare it to minn's record against the west and then you have a true comparison because then they are playing the same teams.
This only fixes one of the many holes in this system thoughComment -
Barts - widebody comes in here and instead of basically hating on the system and being abusive, he offers constructive criticism - which is rare on a forum where everybody loves calling everybody a c*nt with a retarded system.
Sorry I apparently stepped on one of your testicles.
I was just having fun with someone who "isn't a hater" but comes in here hating
And then says something which is very wrong.
Is the West better? Yes.
Does the West win 2/3 games against the East - not even close. More like 55%. For someone whos not a hater, I'd have expected a more realistic figure, even for a generality.
The current Cavs are one of the worst teams in NBA history.
Take the ideas he puts forward as a tool to tweak a system perhaps, don't go all obnoxious "Sorry I apparently stepped on one of your testicles." Makes you look like a 5 year with sand in your vaginaComment -
Barts - widebody comes in here and instead of basically hating on the system and being abusive, he offers constructive criticism - which is rare on a forum where everybody loves calling everybody a c*nt with a retarded system.
Sorry I apparently stepped on one of your testicles.
I was just having fun with someone who "isn't a hater" but comes in here hating
And then says something which is very wrong.
Is the West better? Yes.
Does the West win 2/3 games against the East - not even close. More like 55%. For someone whos not a hater, I'd have expected a more realistic figure, even for a generality.
The current Cavs are one of the worst teams in NBA history.
Take the ideas he puts forward as a tool to tweak a system perhaps, don't go all obnoxious "Sorry I apparently stepped on one of your testicles." Makes you look like a 5 year with sand in your vaginaComment -
Here's a better question to ask:
You make it sound like I am saying that this is the only thing to consider when deciding whether or not to make an investment on a game. I've never said that and, as I just pointed out, have said exactly the opposite.
I look at many things, this is just one.
To repeat myself: You feel this is worthless. I have no issue with that.
I don't feel that it's worthless, but it's far from the only thing I look at when deciding on whether or not to invest.Comment -
I heard you the first time
The "stepped on one of your testicles" was his line, I just repeated it but apparently it was okay when he said it.
If we want to start having a conversation about different things to consider when deciding on whether or not to play a game, that's fine.
It's not what this thread was about. I was just posting the plays, and sometimes making comments.Comment -
I'm not talking about things you personally consider. I am talking about the system and the holes in it. I just gave you a real way to fix one of those holes.
Go back, read my fix, and think about if it makes sense or not. If you have any brains which I think you do, you will agree that it makes senseComment -
smogs thank you. For a minute I thought I was the duescheComment -
Also, I just want to make one point here in case it isn't clear.
This isn't my system.
I feel like I've been put in the role of defending something which I think has marginal value because I started out helping post the plays and then made a spreadsheet so that there wouldn't be arguments over the math.Comment -
Not my system...ITS YOURS lol
all kidding aside if it doesn't improve the system it really just means the system is based on nothing but luck (which it may be). Being serious
you put yourself in the role of the defender. Instead you could have just had an approach more like bluedonkeymanComment -
02/10/11
No plays
GSW are on back-to-back.Comment
