Sawyer's NBA Totals Thread 2010-2011 Season

blackbox · 11-12-10, 04:55 PM

SAWYER thought you lived in Lodi- or were you foolin me?

sporx · 11-12-10, 04:56 PM

From third world

dieschlange · 11-12-10, 05:44 PM

Good luck Sawyer

Greetings from BK

yassen28 · 11-12-10, 05:59 PM

Just got it Under 49.5 at Sportingbet and it moved down to 48.5

sweetjones55 · 11-12-10, 06:02 PM

Good luck tonight on your plays.

taraftar · 11-12-10, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by nskoex

Sawyer what country are you from?

Kahtalı Miço...

Luttrrt · 11-12-10, 06:26 PM

Hey Sawyer,

I'm a newbie to the forum but I have been following you for a while. Thanks for all the tips! Much appreciated.

Just to let everyone know that the 1Q Total for the Atlanta is at 51.5 on Betfair.

sapidoc · 11-12-10, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by Luttrrt

Hey Sawyer, I'm a newbie to the forum but I have been following you for a while. Thanks for all the tips! Much appreciated. Just to let everyone know that the 1Q Total for the Atlanta is at 51.5 on Betfair.

What odds though. Unless its 51.5 for -110 then not the same thing

Luttrrt · 11-12-10, 06:38 PM

Good point. There is only $50 on the market so it is young but at the moment the odds are -180 so not as good as -110.

Dark Horse · 11-12-10, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Well, I love being on the other side actually. When I have a pick market rejects, I feel more confident. A friend of mine is keeping stats about it and according to these numbers, I have a much better record when line moves against us. When line moves down by 2 points, it doesn't mean that sharps are pounding under. There's so many sharps on world. All sharps can be on Under? Hell, no. Some of them will pick Over. Line movement can be misleading. Unfortunately, many bettors are effected by line movement too much. I know people who change their bet because of line movement.

You say your bet becomes stronger when the line moves against you. Typical price for 1/2 pt is 10 cents. So 2 pts is worth somewhere around 40 cents. That's the same as buying -110 at -150. Where is the value?

Do you know the ATS winning percentage you would need to break even at such a handicap? A single bet may win, which always seems to be your argument, but if you repeat that type of investment over the long run, how could you expect to win?

Couldn't hurt to brush up on some very basic math. Nothing advanced. GL.

Luttrrt · 11-12-10, 07:04 PM

I agree the extra 3 Points cushion is definitely not worth it at that price. I managed to get 75% of my bet Matched at -128 so that's not too bad.

Sawyer · 11-12-10, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by yassen28

Just got it Under 49.5 at Sportingbet and it moved down to 48.5

Very good line! I guess you picked it at 1.91 (-110)

Originally posted by Luttrrt

Hey Sawyer,

I'm a newbie to the forum but I have been following you for a while. Thanks for all the tips! Much appreciated.

Just to let everyone know that the 1Q Total for the Atlanta is at 51.5 on Betfair.

Yes, it's 51½ in Betfair but odds are so low. It get matched at -130 and -150 but volume was very poor.

ScottLocke · 11-12-10, 07:28 PM

GL...i'm on ur Phx/Sac over play tonight!

MrTop · 11-12-10, 07:28 PM

lots of points in orlando

Stevedore · 11-12-10, 07:36 PM

OUCH!! Williams with a three ball to go over the total with 2 seconds left. Bad beat..

twarby · 11-12-10, 07:36 PM

well on target for another loss.

spankmythighs · 11-12-10, 07:39 PM

Eat shit Williams you

.

spankmythighs · 11-12-10, 07:41 PM

Can`t have another 3 and out tonite. Tired of my hockey picks making up for basketball.

spankmythighs · 11-12-10, 07:44 PM

61 pts in the 1st qtr for the Craptors game. Ya, not good. We could be f`d again.

Nookx · 11-12-10, 07:45 PM

-----sums up my week

erkanua · 11-12-10, 07:50 PM

Looks like 2 lost already..I don't believe there will be a 7 play loosing streak and I guess Suns game will be over and take a winner anyway..

wquine · 11-12-10, 07:51 PM

bad bad mojo sawyer... this is a lesson in money management 4 sure

twarby · 11-12-10, 07:55 PM

no one should be risking 5% per play at this time of the season on a system only proven in the 2nd half of the year..
you shouldnt be finding an edge 18 times a week in november, and continuing to find 18 a week through february

Stevedore · 11-12-10, 07:56 PM

Originally posted by wquine

bad bad mojo sawyer... this is a lesson in money management 4 sure

Have a little faith.. Sheesh, That Raptor game is far from out of the woods yet. The brick fest is coming!!

MrTop · 11-12-10, 08:00 PM

orlando total is a stone cold loser

JR007 · 11-12-10, 08:06 PM

Two books that may of value (if anyone is interested)...Conquering Risk ...in the SBR Bookstore...which I have read ../.and Smart Money Michael Konik...I haven't read...Justin...one of the mods contributed to the former....ex-linesmaker for pinnacle...smart dude

bradnowell · 11-12-10, 08:09 PM

Just got conquering Risk so much great info

smallbluedonkey · 11-12-10, 08:11 PM

Originally posted by Stevedore

Have a little faith.. Sheesh, That Raptor game is far from out of the woods yet. The brick fest is coming!!

Heh. I like your optimism!

Stevedore · 11-12-10, 08:18 PM

Originally posted by smallbluedonkey

Heh. I like your optimism!

Starting to lose it.. 10 three pointers and both teams shooting over 55%?

Seriously though, a correction is coming in the 2nd half, but will it be enough?

riskyProps · 11-12-10, 08:22 PM

There may be hope. They scored less in the second than the first!

This over/under stuff really eludes me!

hockeynut · 11-12-10, 08:22 PM

I didn't like this game under. 6 of the last 7 went over. Glad I went with my instinct and layed off this one.

smallbluedonkey · 11-12-10, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by Stevedore

Seriously though, a correction is coming in the 2nd half...

probably

Originally posted by Stevedore

but will it be enough?

probably not

sapidoc · 11-12-10, 08:40 PM

Originally posted by hockeynut

I didn't like this game under. 6 of the last 7 went over. Glad I went with my instinct and layed off this one.

Dude where was this stat 2 hours ago? We need people to share this kinda info

Don't feel embarrassed putting up facts that go against the plays. The more information we have the better.

saints7011 · 11-12-10, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by sapidoc

Dude where was this stat 2 hours ago? We need people to share this kinda info

Don't feel embarrassed putting up facts that go against the plays. The more information we have the better.

#1743 , GL on your under play...

Nookx · 11-12-10, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by sapidoc

Dude where was this stat 2 hours ago? We need people to share this kinda info

Don't feel embarrassed putting up facts that go against the plays. The more information we have the better.

The problem is that this info means absolutely nothing by itself because of variance. The under could have been a better play in every game but sometimes even when your favored long term your not gonna get the result you want in the short term. This information is worthless by itself.