70% math plays 2009-10 tracking

barts185 · 01-26-10, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by aoz1122

Bart - I think you need to re-check your math on GSW/SAC game. My sheet has Kings -1.534, which would make GSW a play if not for Ellis being DTD.

You're right. I wish I had saved it when I ran it earlier to see definitely what changed, but my guess is that the line was off since it wasn't up in a lot of places.

In any event, running it now, with a line of -6.5, I get -1.55 (I only round the win percentages to 3 places).

Also, Ellis gets added to a long list of GSW injuries, which definitely eliminates them for tonight, but it also goes to my prior post - are plays considered plays after starters have been out for a week, or only after starters return and you then wait a week?

thenry2289 · 01-26-10, 12:27 PM

So that makes it no plays for tonite correct???

Welt446+ · 01-26-10, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by barts185

One question that I have.

When I read the rules for the initial system, my understanding was that if a starter is out, you don't play on that team, for however long the starter is out. Once the starter returns, you also then wait a week before they become eligible to be a play. In this thread, that seems to have been changed to if a starter is out, wait a week, and then the team is eligible to be a play, even though the starter is still out. Does anyone have any thoughts on which one is correct?

Thanks,
Bart

That's how I understood it too and that is the only method that makes any sense to me.

Welt446+ · 01-26-10, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by aoz1122

It has been brought to my attention Barbosa has only started a few games. In looking at it, Richardson has started a lot more games. Barbosa really has only started for about a week now, and is now out 4 weeks ago for a wrist surgery. Personally I am not counting this one as a play, but for sure see the argument for counting it. This system can be both subjective and objective at the same time it seems. Good luck to everyone whether you play it or not.

I stayed away from it for two reasons. Barbosa has been starting recently and the Suns are 6-9 when he does not play at all. I'm glad I stayed away from it too for the most obvious reason (it lost)

Welt446+ · 01-26-10, 12:37 PM

Originally posted by thenry2289

So that makes it no plays for tonite correct???

Due to questionable injuries, it definitely looks like there won't be any. We might not know til game time and that is too late of notice.

barts185 · 01-26-10, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by thenry2289

So that makes it no plays for tonite correct???

If Artest plays, the Lakers -8 are a play.

Right now, his status is listed as probable. The Orange County register is saying that he is going to play.

HoulihansTX · 01-26-10, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by barts185

If Artest plays, the Lakers -8 are a play. Right now, his status is listed as probable. The Orange County register is saying that he is going to play.

I hope he doesnt play. He really hurts this team, and Bill Simmons called it the day after the trade went down. He is horrible in the set offense, and his defense is no better than Ariza's. Watch this team play better without him.

Already booked Lakers -8.

barts185 · 01-26-10, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

I hope he doesnt play. He really hurts this team, and Bill Simmons called it the day after the trade went down. He is horrible in the set offense, and his defense is no better than Ariza's. Watch this team play better without him.

Already booked Lakers -8.

I think he's been a lot worse lately as well. Seems like Phil Jackson wants him to change shoes, but I'm guessing he can't because of endorsements. Officially of course, Artest says the shoes aren't the problem. But his performance lately has definitely made me not worry if he's in the lineup.

og4667 · 01-26-10, 01:05 PM

yea Phil said Artest looks like he is clunking up down the floor with his heavy shoes. funny shit, Artest so far doesn't seem like a good fit on this team. Wish we could have kept Ariza as he has so much more upside and just seemed to fit better. Whenever I look at Artest his eyes look lost, I think he is on a bunch of pills or something to calm him down. Just doesn't look right. ANYWAY...Lakers -8 is the play per the system.

barts185 · 01-26-10, 01:59 PM

Just saw that Jamison is now questionable for Washington. I think he's a bigger loss than Artest for LAL.

Hawk007 · 01-26-10, 02:53 PM

Great worK Bart!

I think we found our leader.

DaProfessor23 · 01-26-10, 04:40 PM

lakers -8 = straight cash tonight .... good luck everyone

losturmarbles · 01-26-10, 05:03 PM

i'm pretty sure the way the injury filter works is if a starter is out, the team is ineligible to be a play for (i believe) one week. going forward after that, they are eligible until an injured starter comes back from injury, where again the team is ineligible for a week.

barts185 · 01-26-10, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

i'm pretty sure the way the injury filter works is if a starter is out, the team is ineligible to be a play for (i believe) one week. going forward after that, they are eligible until an injured starter comes back from injury, where again the team is ineligible for a week.

I was just going by the post that started the thread.

"Don't play if one or more starters are OUT. Allow one week for return starters."

losturmarbles · 01-26-10, 06:38 PM

i'm just going by the original system. you may have to dig and find last year's threads about it.

Profit · 01-27-10, 01:26 AM

Another winner! Does anyone have a running record for this guy?

ol'Tex · 01-27-10, 01:48 AM

interesting system... ill have to look into it!

JohnAnthony · 01-27-10, 01:53 AM

Too many guys using too many different systems, some guys are just posting their picks. This (thread) is going to become a failure.

PatrickBateman · 01-27-10, 08:29 AM

Just make plays as you see fit...the thread can just be a discussion of the picks I suppose

HoulihansTX · 01-27-10, 08:38 AM

Here huys I did the Calculations using Barts excel sheet. You guys figure out who is injured, B2B, needs to be filtered out.

Lakers -5.5
Portland +2.5

Hornets -2.5
Clipps -5.5

aoz1122 · 01-27-10, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Here huys I did the Calculations using Barts excel sheet. You guys figure out who is injured, B2B, needs to be filtered out.

Lakers -5.5
Portland +2.5

Hornets -2.5
Clipps -5.5

What were your final calcluation numbers? I don't agree with your numbers

aoz1122 · 01-27-10, 11:30 AM

LA Lakers -5.5; Calc: 11.50 (NO PLAY b/c back to back game filter)
Cleveland -13.5; Calc 17.76 (NO PLAY b/c D.D. Spread)
LA Clippers -5.5; Calc 10.74 (PLAY!, All filters satisfied if you feel Thornton has been back and ok long enough)

No other plays according to my math.

barts185 · 01-27-10, 12:23 PM

I want to make sure that everyone who is using my spreadsheet is CHECKING THE SPREAD.

This is taking the spread off a website, but they at times are slow to put up the spread on today's games.

I didn't know how else to do it and make it simple.

Also, as I said when I posted it, this is a first version. I think it's correct, but won't be shocked it there are errors. I hope to make it better over time, but thought it was good enough to send out with the caveats that people still need to be checking the other parameters.

Selected team / opening line / final calc number for games on 01/27/10:

Heat / +3 (home line is -3) / 0.6

Lakers / -6.5 (home line is +6.5) / 10.5 (back to back, no play)

Cavaliers / -14 / 17.25 (line too high, no play)

Clippers / -5.5 (home line is +5.5) / 10.75 (Eric Gordon questionable, line is now 6.5 in some places, which would be too high to qualify, but opening line was 5.5)

Grizzlies / -1.5 (home line is +1.5) / 5.95

Thunder / -5 / 0.85

Bucks / +3 (home line is -3) / 3.9

Hawks / +3.5 (home line is -3.5) 5.15

Nuggets / +2 (home line is -2) / 5.85

Jazz / -3 (home line is +3) / -5.8 (Roy is out for Portland)

Hornets / -2.5 (home line is +2.5) / 6.65

aoz1122, curious what you came up with on the Jazz / Trailblazer game

Jazz 591
Trailblazers 587

Jazz are selected team.
591-587=4
4/20=0.2
Jazz on road, 0.2 -3 = -2.8
Line is Jazz -3, so -2.8 + ( -3 ) = -5.8

Thanks.

Welt446+ · 01-27-10, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by aoz1122

LA Lakers -5.5; Calc: 11.50 (NO PLAY b/c back to back game filter)
Cleveland -13.5; Calc 17.76 (NO PLAY b/c D.D. Spread)
LA Clippers -5.5; Calc 10.74 (PLAY!, All filters satisfied if you feel Thornton has been back and ok long enough)

No other plays according to my math.

Gordon has been out for a few days for the Clippers and is questionable for tonight. The clippers are 4-7 when Gordon does not play.

aoz1122 · 01-27-10, 01:01 PM

You are right, I did not see that one. Oh well, I wont count it as a play on this system, but I still like the play. I got it at -5.5 before the line started moving, it is now up to -6.5 anyhow,

Welt446+ · 01-27-10, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by aoz1122

You are right, I did not see that one. Oh well, I wont count it as a play on this system, but I still like the play. I got it at -5.5 before the line started moving, it is now up to -6.5 anyhow,

Yeah, I'm surprised that a team playing the nets is favored by so little.

Hawk007 · 01-27-10, 01:23 PM

Gordon has been out for the past 3 games. Even if he returns tonight this should be a NO PLAY.

PacmanJr_00 · 01-27-10, 02:20 PM

exactly. gordon needs to be back for a full week to qualify as a play. no official plays tonight.

cashil · 01-27-10, 02:35 PM

thanks guys, was very close to taking that because of the LOL nets LOL

aoz1122 · 01-27-10, 02:59 PM

I agree completely, I missed that injury my first time around, but I still loved the play at -5.5 so I am taking a shot at it.

Good luck to anyone else taking it regardless.

Hawk007 · 01-27-10, 04:12 PM

Other forum has Heat a play at +3'. Line is currently +3. Not sure if his calculations are correct?

barts185 · 01-27-10, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by Hawk007

Other forum has Heat a play at +3'. Line is currently +3. Not sure if his calculations are correct?

Raptors 511
Heat 523

Heat is the selected team

523-511 =12
12/20=0.6
Road team, subtract 3, 0.6-3.0 = -2.4
Add the line
If you use 3, -2.4 + 3 = 0.6, No play
If you use 3.5, -2.4 +3.5 = 1.1, No play

What other forum?

og4667 · 01-27-10, 04:59 PM

thanks for keeping track barts!

balls2wall · 01-27-10, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by barts185

I want to make sure that everyone who is using my spreadsheet is CHECKING THE SPREAD.

This is taking the spread off a website, but they at times are slow to put up the spread on today's games.

I didn't know how else to do it and make it simple.

Also, as I said when I posted it, this is a first version. I think it's correct, but won't be shocked it there are errors. I hope to make it better over time, but thought it was good enough to send out with the caveats that people still need to be checking the other parameters.

Selected team / opening line / final calc number for games on 01/27/10:

Heat / +3 (home line is -3) / 0.6

Lakers / -6.5 (home line is +6.5) / 10.5 (back to back, no play)

Cavaliers / -14 / 17.25 (line too high, no play)

Clippers / -5.5 (home line is +5.5) / 10.75 (Eric Gordon questionable, line is now 6.5 in some places, which would be too high to qualify, but opening line was 5.5)

Grizzlies / -1.5 (home line is +1.5) / 5.95

Thunder / -5 / 0.85

Bucks / +3 (home line is -3) / 3.9

Hawks / +3.5 (home line is -3.5) 5.15

Nuggets / +2 (home line is -2) / 5.85

Jazz / -3 (home line is +3) / -5.8 (Roy is out for Portland)

Hornets / -2.5 (home line is +2.5) / 6.65

aoz1122, curious what you came up with on the Jazz / Trailblazer game

Jazz 591
Trailblazers 587

Jazz are selected team.
591-587=4
4/20=0.2
Jazz on road, 0.2 -3 = -2.8
Line is Jazz -3, so -2.8 + ( -3 ) = -5.8

Thanks.

This is the first day I have been back to this thread in a while. I just downloaded your new spreadsheet. I was manually doing the original one earlier in the season and am grateful to see an automated version.

Just wanted to say thanks for your efforts

AzNDooM · 01-27-10, 07:40 PM

Thanks for the info Barts185, but i think ill wait for Bustabook's version to to the stats.