NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

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  • Cougs
    SBR Rookie
    • 03-30-14
    • 15

    #1016
    despite queries suggesting a play tonight....i'm sitting out. this team has some notorious habits of sitting key players for the sake of the playoffs and their coach could care less about a win tonight (i would think).
    Comment
    • FortySix
      SBR High Roller
      • 02-18-14
      • 134

      #1017
      Fellas, I was going thru the thread last night and there are 2 very good plays leaning towards the Spurs for this game. Are you guys jumping on Spurs today as +2 dogs?
      Comment
      • Tillos
        SBR High Roller
        • 03-28-14
        • 179

        #1018
        Originally posted by FortySix
        Fellas, I was going thru the thread last night and there are 2 very good plays leaning towards the Spurs for this game. Are you guys jumping on Spurs today as +2 dogs?
        I take that back
        Last edited by Tillos; 04-10-14, 06:05 PM.
        Comment
        • Tillos
          SBR High Roller
          • 03-28-14
          • 179

          #1019
          I love this one tonight fading the the public's lean on a total tonight that's moved the total only 2 points


          F and p: points>105 and line <=-10 and total>214 and total<222 and season>=2012
          Comment
          • JMon
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 12-11-09
            • 9800

            #1020
            About jumped on the spurs, but laying off tonight. GL guys
            Comment
            • Cougs
              SBR Rookie
              • 03-30-14
              • 15

              #1021
              congrats for those of you that jumped on the Spurs! I'm long San Antonio for the championship (for a variety of reasons) but just don't trust Popovich enough in a game that has little meaning to his team. Even though they won, it wouldn't of surprised me had they lost by 10+. And it's stuff for which statistics most definitely can't account! I'll be interested in playing them - if the queries suggest so - come playoff time, because then you can be sure they'll be playing the best they can!
              Comment
              • Wojo
                SBR MVP
                • 03-19-10
                • 1764

                #1022
                Originally posted by Mako-SBR
                No, for the reasons Wojo mentioned.

                As we've talked about before, there are a variety of touts and tout services using SDQL to provide 'picks' to clients, and not one of them is above 52.4% lifetime in any sport where there are 200+ picks provided. Not a single one.
                Just saw your post. I have bet sports and followed cappers since the late 90's. I can't entirely agree with your statement I quoted. Of the two NBA cappers that I have mentioned in posts over the years that I do follow and have bought, who are both consistent winners, one of them, Jim Kruger, does use SDQL trends and has won in multiple sports with them. I have never seen anything from Erin Ryning that he uses SDQL, but he still is very good.

                I have subscribed to Statfox before, which a lot of cappers do and quote in their write-ups, but they don't realize that Statfox trends aren't always accurate. Kruger does quote fundamentals a lot so I don't think he only uses SDQL. Sportsbookbreakers on Killercappers claims to be winning a lot but when I have bought them, I usually don't like their SDQL trends. Cajun Sports from that website is more to my liking, but unlike Rynning and Kruger, I have never seen him monitored anywhere. A guy who seems to be good with SDQL is Doug Fitz or Fitzpatrick, he's in the Vegas newspaper with picks sometimes.

                I don't think many cappers use their own SDQL, they are just quoting Statfox trends or maybe others that they get from Sportsinsights or other sites. Big Al uses a database similar to SDQL, along with Mark Lawrence, and they have had good success.
                Last edited by Wojo; 04-11-14, 11:30 AM. Reason: added a couple of other handicappers
                Comment
                • 19th Hole
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 03-22-09
                  • 18925

                  #1023
                  Originally posted by Tillos
                  I love this one tonight fading the the public's lean on a total tonight that's moved the total only 2 points


                  F and p: points>105 and line <=-10 and total>214 and total<222 and season>=2012
                  ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`

                  Very nice result.
                  Favored the dog nicely also.

                  How much weight do folks put on the sample size.

                  Thanks for getting me off of the over but I didn't pull the trigger
                  on the Nuggs.
                  Comment
                  • green7
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 10-21-10
                    • 190

                    #1024
                    Contrarian play on the Celtics....I am not feeling it with them, but would get me off Bobcats if I was so inclined.

                    game number>70 and HD and tA(W)<.4 and total<200 and oA(W)>.5 and division!=o:division and rest>0 and o:rest>0 and p:L and op:W

                    12-28 (-5.05, 30.0%)
                    24-16-0 (2.70, 60.0%) avg line: 7.8
                    20-19-1 (1.15, 51.3%) avg total: 190.3
                    Comment
                    • green7
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 10-21-10
                      • 190

                      #1025
                      game number>70 and playoffs=0 and HF and division!=o:division and line<=-12 and total>200 and tA(W)>.55 and rest>0 and o:rest>0

                      Under in the OKC/NO game.

                      SU: 34-3 (14.68, 91.9%)
                      ATS: 20-16-1 (0.54, 55.6%)
                      avg line: -14.1
                      O/U: 14-23-0 (-5.43, 37.8%)
                      avg total: 210.9
                      Last edited by green7; 04-11-14, 04:56 AM.
                      Comment
                      • green7
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 10-21-10
                        • 190

                        #1026
                        Another contrarian play....can't stomach this one.....though Smith being doubtful is addition by subtraction.

                        game number>70 and playoffs=0 and HF and division=o:division and tA(W)>.55 and 180<total<200<total<200 and="" oa(w)<.5="" p:aw="" op:l<total<200="" op:l


                        SU: 16-5 (7.81, 76.2%)
                        ATS: 6-14-1 (-3.07, 30.0%)
                        avg line: -10.9
                        O/U: 11-9-1 (2.48, 55.0%)
                        avg total: 189.2</total<200>
                        Last edited by green7; 04-11-14, 11:01 AM.
                        Comment
                        • green7
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 10-21-10
                          • 190

                          #1027
                          game number>70 and playoffs=0 and HF and division!=o:division and tA(W)>.6 and total<200 and oA(W)>.6 and rest>0 and o:rest>0 and line>-7 and p:L and op:W

                          SU: 7-8 (0.73, 46.7%)
                          ATS: 6-9-0 (-2.63, 40.0%)
                          avg line: -3.4
                          O/U: 12-3-0 (11.00, 80.0%)
                          avg total: 188.1

                          Interesting call on the over for Miami/Indy.

                          All of these plays are verrrrry contrarian, be careful over the next week in the NBA guys.
                          Comment
                          • dmitean
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 03-30-11
                            • 364

                            #1028
                            I really like Killersports trend on Over in Memphis:
                            p: ou margin >= 18 and op: ou margin >= 24 and season > 2002 and playoffs = 0 and site = home and p:site = home and op:site = away
                            p: ou margin >= 18 and op: ou margin >= 24 and season > 2007 and playoffs=0

                            If we take this season only, we still get very good results...
                            Comment
                            • dmitean
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 03-30-11
                              • 364

                              #1029
                              This one is for March and April (better for March), but still very good one and delivers the state of mind of a good team off a home loss.
                              p:site=home and site=home and 20121015<=date and p:L and WP>50 and month=3
                              p:site=home and site=home and 20121015<=date and p:L and WP>50 and month=4

                              It supports nicely Dallas play on Saturday perhaps...
                              Comment
                              • green7
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 10-21-10
                                • 190

                                #1030
                                month=4 and n:rest=0 and division!=o:division and AD and playoffs=0 and division!=o:division and total>195 and line<6
                                Last edited by green7; 04-11-14, 11:13 AM.
                                Comment
                                • Wojo
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 03-19-10
                                  • 1764

                                  #1031
                                  Originally posted by 19th Hole
                                  ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`

                                  Very nice result.
                                  Favored the dog nicely also.

                                  How much weight do folks put on the sample size.
                                  The bigger the sample size the less chance of it being just a random result.

                                  I think it was Mako who has a great post on how to determine if a trend is good or not, somewhere in the first few pages of the thread.
                                  Comment
                                  • dmitean
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 03-30-11
                                    • 364

                                    #1032
                                    Originally posted by dmitean
                                    This one is for March and April (better for March), but still very good one and delivers the state of mind of a good team off a home loss.
                                    p:site=home and site=home and 20121015<=date and p:L and WP>50 and month=3
                                    p:site=home and site=home and 20121015<=date and p:L and WP>50 and month=4

                                    It supports nicely Dallas play on Saturday perhaps...
                                    p:site=home and site=home and 20121015<=date and p:L and WP>50 and month=3,4 and o:WP>50

                                    And here if they play a good team as well (short line probably is a big factor).
                                    Comment
                                    • Mako-SBR
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 10-15-13
                                      • 492

                                      #1033
                                      SO much juicy action tonight, particularly from the older queries in the thread that were posted previously. BOL to all, big card for sure.
                                      Comment
                                      • Cougs
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 03-30-14
                                        • 15

                                        #1034
                                        any ideas why the Houston/Minnesota line shifted all the way from Hou -2 to Min -1.5?? I'm not liking my bet already! lol
                                        Comment
                                        • Wojo
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-19-10
                                          • 1764

                                          #1035
                                          Originally posted by Cougs
                                          any ideas why the Houston/Minnesota line shifted all the way from Hou -2 to Min -1.5?? I'm not liking my bet already! lol
                                          James Harden is not going to play, apparently. Howard also out.
                                          Comment
                                          • JMon
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 12-11-09
                                            • 9800

                                            #1036
                                            Originally posted by Cougs
                                            any ideas why the Houston/Minnesota line shifted all the way from Hou -2 to Min -1.5?? I'm not liking my bet already! lol
                                            Haven't even look at NBA yet,,been at MLB all day today (more time consuming). IMO and personal success, I wait, as a SDQL user, until the line movement settles before I play. Just my personal preference. I am not worried about grabbing an early line. If the situation still applies I will consider. Most of my situations are line filtered, if it shifts, no reason to play it. In fact I don't see it as the database changes its lines.
                                            Comment
                                            • JMon
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 12-11-09
                                              • 9800

                                              #1037
                                              Originally posted by Wojo
                                              James Harden is not going to play, apparently. Howard also out.
                                              this is a perfect example. And the reason, I've stated before, a situation is a situation...I pay no attention to injuries or who is playing or not playing, the line adjustment will do it for you in most circumstances.
                                              Comment
                                              • 19th Hole
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 03-22-09
                                                • 18925

                                                #1038
                                                Originally posted by Wojo

                                                The bigger the sample size the less chance of it being just a random result.

                                                I think it was Mako who has a great post on how to determine if a trend is good or not, somewhere in the first few pages of the thread.
                                                Originally posted by JMon

                                                this is a perfect example. And the reason, I've stated before, a situation is a situation...I pay no attention to injuries or who is playing or not playing, the line adjustment will do it for you in most circumstances.

                                                ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

                                                Wonderful to have the help and knowledge....
                                                Thanks....
                                                Comment
                                                • Mako-SBR
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 10-15-13
                                                  • 492

                                                  #1039
                                                  Originally posted by JMon
                                                  this is a perfect example. And the reason, I've stated before, a situation is a situation...I pay no attention to injuries or who is playing or not playing, the line adjustment will do it for you in most circumstances.
                                                  Yes, this x100.

                                                  People always ask about how injuries are factored in the second they first grasp how we go about betting using SDQL-researched scenarios and the answer is exactly what JMon posted.

                                                  The late line is your friend, you're not trying to jump on the earliest possible line when using these situation-based plays as you might be when looking for EV via other handicapping methods. Not only because the injury news during the day may turn you off of a game completely as it did for many of us with Houston tonight, but also because the overreaction might also give you a few points as a gift on a game that you're staying with.

                                                  Same thing happened a week or two ago with MIN having a few queries highlighting them and Love being out screwing anyone who didn't see it and bet the system blindly.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JMon
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 12-11-09
                                                    • 9800

                                                    #1040
                                                    Originally posted by Mako-SBR
                                                    SO much juicy action tonight, particularly from the older queries in the thread that were posted previously. BOL to all, big card for sure.
                                                    Holy crap! you are not kidding...tonight appears to a make or break of sdql'ers... I see a landside or breakeven.. but I will list my games I am playing for the sake of it. Hope others may follow and list their games!!!!!. By all means do not follow me; as I don't need the sob story of a loss. No lines listed..you know why.

                                                    Det
                                                    Phil
                                                    Lal
                                                    Wash
                                                    Atl
                                                    Hou ML
                                                    Clev
                                                    Char

                                                    Comment
                                                    • green7
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 10-21-10
                                                      • 190

                                                      #1041
                                                      My plays for tonight.

                                                      Portland -7'
                                                      Phoenix +2' Dragic is listed as questionable and that is a BIG loss, but Duncan and Ginobili are out for SA. I expected Parker to be out and probably will regret this play.......the line has moved against me, as it should have.

                                                      Wanted to play Houston, but can't with both starting guards and Howard out, will delve deeper and if Jeremy Lin is starting for Houston may go with the T'Wolves. The difference of Harden not playing and Lin starting in his place should be about 7 points in my opinion.

                                                      Still possible: Under OKC/NO

                                                      Still possible: Boston +4....I posted a query earlier favoring the Celts, now that Kemba Walker is listed as not starting, I am pretty interested, as point guard injuries, especially if they are excellent players are the most significant injuries to a team.
                                                      Last edited by green7; 04-11-14, 06:02 PM.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JR007
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 02-21-10
                                                        • 5279

                                                        #1042
                                                        enjoy your weekend, guys
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Wojo
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-19-10
                                                          • 1764

                                                          #1043
                                                          I didn't have time today to look at much SDQL. I did play Charlotte under 194, and Houston +1.5, and Cleveland -4.
                                                          Good luck to everybody tonight.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • dmitean
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 03-30-11
                                                            • 364

                                                            #1044
                                                            Originally posted by Mako-SBR
                                                            Yes, this x100.

                                                            People always ask about how injuries are factored in the second they first grasp how we go about betting using SDQL-researched scenarios and the answer is exactly what JMon posted.

                                                            The late line is your friend, you're not trying to jump on the earliest possible line when using these situation-based plays as you might be when looking for EV via other handicapping methods. Not only because the injury news during the day may turn you off of a game completely as it did for many of us with Houston tonight, but also because the overreaction might also give you a few points as a gift on a game that you're staying with.

                                                            Same thing happened a week or two ago with MIN having a few queries highlighting them and Love being out screwing anyone who didn't see it and bet the system blindly.
                                                            I think you are saying the opposite of what JMon said. You agree that injury can be a reason for you to stay off the game competely, while JMon claims that an angle is an angle no matter what.

                                                            I agree with your side.

                                                            Angle, if it's not just an angle, but a reasonable one and especially JMon usually has a reason for a query and as such, injury is a huge factor.

                                                            For example, if you look at good team off a home loss as an angle playing B2B and see that it's a good angle (just an example) - but that team plays many with many players out and the other team needs the game a lot more - that is a reason to change your mind.

                                                            If, like JMon posted - betting on good rebounding teams against bad rebounding teams in the end of the season = money, but you learn before the game, that both best rebounders of the team are out - the query means nothing, regardless of the outcome of the bet (win or lose).

                                                            But that's just my opinion...
                                                            Comment
                                                            • dmitean
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 03-30-11
                                                              • 364

                                                              #1045
                                                              Originally posted by dmitean
                                                              I really like Killersports trend on Over in Memphis:
                                                              p: ou margin >= 18 and op: ou margin >= 24 and season > 2002 and playoffs = 0 and site = home and p:site = home and op:site = away
                                                              p: ou margin >= 18 and op: ou margin >= 24 and season > 2007 and playoffs=0

                                                              If we take this season only, we still get very good results...
                                                              Really easy Over, never in doubt even...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • JMon
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 12-11-09
                                                                • 9800

                                                                #1046
                                                                Originally posted by dmitean
                                                                Really easy Over, never in doubt even...
                                                                good work, myself didn't spend the time on research and had a losing day
                                                                Comment
                                                                • green7
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 10-21-10
                                                                  • 190

                                                                  #1047
                                                                  game number > 55 and division!= o:division and HF and rest=0 and o:rest = 0 and oA(W)<.33 and day=Saturday
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • dmitean
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 03-30-11
                                                                    • 364

                                                                    #1048
                                                                    Originally posted by green7
                                                                    game number > 55 and division!= o:division and HF and rest=0 and o:rest = 0 and oA(W)<.33 and day=Saturday
                                                                    It also works great if instead of Saturday, you enter April:
                                                                    game number > 55 and division!= o:division and HF and rest=0 and o:rest = 0 and oA(W)<.33 and month=4

                                                                    5-21-1 (-5.87, 19.2%) avg line: -9.4
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JMon
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 12-11-09
                                                                      • 9800

                                                                      #1049
                                                                      p:date == t:date -1 and 208 >= total >= 200.5 and P:L and P:margin <= -30
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • JMon
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 12-11-09
                                                                        • 9800

                                                                        #1050
                                                                        I believe this is one of Mako's

                                                                        H and (p: D or p:HFL) and (rest + pp:rest + ppp:rest) = 1 and game number >= 15 and op:rest <= 1 and o:rest < 4 and conference = Eastern
                                                                        Comment
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