Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

**Grinder12000** · 12-06-13, 10:56 AM

New Personal Chase's - let me explain.

this was an idea I was testing in MLB and I've tweaked it for the NBA - using RPI which is sort of a power rating I'm taking the HOTTEST and COLDEST teams and chasing wins or losses. It's just seems so obvious when I see teams hot and cold - why not jump on the bandwagon.

I just went through the season to date using a 10 hame moving average for the RPI - as of today it's 21-0

"A" 15-7
"B" 6-1
"C" yet to be played

Today
"A" Portland
"C" Oklah
"A" fade Milwaukee
"B" Denver
"A" fade Philly

NOT part of a system but I'm playing these for a small amount

and the beauty is I can backtest this one day at a time for previous years!

**Afterimage** · 12-06-13, 11:49 AM

Interesting idea. I'll ride along and risk a few $$$. Just to be completely clear, to fade you mean take the opponent of the listed team? Thanks Grinder! Sweet win on Chicago last night.

**Mako-SBR** · 12-06-13, 12:05 PM

I like it Grinder, but there's a conflict on the OKC game tonight where NO is already an H3 B pick?

**Grinder12000** · 12-06-13, 01:28 PM

Well - let's hold on here a second - it's not working out very well using LAST years numbers. Perhaps I was a little too excited!

I'll play those "A" chases but then that is finished!! It's working out rather poorly. Weird - this year the numbers are great - last year up to December 18th I've lost 3 out of 5 "D" games .

Still - there has to be a way I can do this. I mean you look at teams like Indiana and Milwaukee - The Bucks SUCK - they have over cover 5 times this year and the Pacers have only NOT covered 5 times! I can see those teams going on a 4 game streak.

**Numbersneverlie** · 12-06-13, 02:38 PM

isnt charlotte also an O4 play? Philly last game was an overtime game

**Grinder12000** · 12-06-13, 02:41 PM

charlotte is not on the new and improved Overtime list!

S4 Overtime
Play	Fade
Boston 48-0	Toronto 56-1
NYKnicks 54-1	Miami 57-0
Brooklyn 49-1	Atl 56-0
Phoenix 39-0	LAClippers 44-0
Dallas 45-0	Sac 52-0
N.O. 49-1
Portland 55-1

**bgilic** · 12-06-13, 06:48 PM

What happened with #50 series?

**Mako-SBR** · 12-06-13, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by bgilic

What happened with #50 series?

What happened to you responding to Grinder's question about your avatar?

**bgilic** · 12-06-13, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

What happened to you responding to Grinder's question about your avatar?

I missed his question due to traveling a lot in last week or so and was just trying to keep head above water.

What if I am gay?

**miczz14** · 12-07-13, 04:40 AM

are there any plays for tomorrow?

**Grinder12000** · 12-07-13, 09:10 AM

*************************

**Grinder12000** · 12-07-13, 09:53 AM

12/07/13 47W-38L +28.14

Results

44C O4 Sac fad LALakers 4.85 to win 4.41u WIN
49B H3 N.O. 2.31 to win 2.10u LOSE
51A H3 Orlando FADE - NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00u WIN
52A S1 Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00u WIN
53A S1 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00u WIN

Saturday

54A S1 Mia fade Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00 * The Heat keep going north getting colder LOL temp at game time will be -5F (-20C)

for all of you guys in other countries America is in the middle of what we call a Siberian Express. Freakish cold for this time of year over most of the U.S.

Sundays known games

None.

* #50 was canceled so I'm just skipping that number

grinders experimental chases.

yesterday

"A" Portland WIN
"C" Oklah WIN
"A" fade Milwaukee LOST
"B" Denver LOST
"A" fade Philly WIN

Total 24-11 +19.49

Saturday

"B" fade Milwaukee - Brooklyn
"C" Denver
"A" Portland

**Grinder12000** · 12-08-13, 12:30 AM

12/08/13 47W-39L +27.04

Results

54A S1 Mia fade Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSS

Sunday

55B S1 Mia fade Det 2.31 to win 2.10

Known Monday games
55A O4 Sacramento fade Dallas 1.10 to win 1.00
Experimental games
"B" Portland 2.31 / 2.10
"A" fade Philly 1.10 / 1.00

grinders experimental chases. total 26-11 +24.90

"B" fade Milwaukee - Brooklyn WIN
"C" Denver WIN
"A" Portland Loss

Sunday
"A" Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00
"A" Oklahoma city IS a pick - so these two cancel each other .

**bgilic** · 12-08-13, 07:01 AM

55B S1 Mia fade Dallas 2.31 to win 2.10

I think that is suppose to be 54B and Detroit not Dallas. Other than that its perfect

**Grinder12000** · 12-08-13, 10:03 AM

Hopefully when people put money on Dallas they would notice that Dallas was not playing LOL Also took out Ohkahoma - I think tha twas a left over from the previous chase and since they play Indiana . . . (in the unofficial experimental chases that are crushing it!)

**miczz14** · 12-08-13, 10:14 AM

any games on monday? hope ucan post early plays coz bookies here close early

**Grinder12000** · 12-08-13, 12:26 PM

Yea, I'll post them later today I think there are a few.

**KC Needs Hockey** · 12-08-13, 01:46 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Yea, I'll post them later today I think there are a few.

Thanks for all your help man I am so hungover season ticket SKC fan and we won the cup at home last night got to take a sip of beer out of the cup in the members section. Party lasted till 5 am in the Members section with a majority of the regulars from the team with us there. I placed the Det bet going back to bed till tomorrow lol!

**Grinder12000** · 12-08-13, 10:59 PM

12/09/13 47W-40L +24.73 [B]

Results
55B S1 Mia fade Det 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSS

Monday

56A Sacramento fade Dallas 1.10 to win 1.00
grinders experimental chases.
"B" Portland 2.31 to win 2.10
"A" Philly fade LAClippers

------------------------

grinders experimental chases. total 27-12 +24.80

"A" Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
"A" Oklahoma city 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

Known games Tuesday

55C Mia fade

**Grinder12000** · 12-09-13, 11:33 PM

12/09/13 47W-41L +23.63

Results
56A O4 Sacramento fade Dallas LOSS
experimental
"B" Portland 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
"A" Philly fade LAClippers WIN

Tuesday
55C S1 Mia fade Indiana4.85u to win 4.41u * Miami has played the easiest schedule in the NBA
experimental 29-12 +29.00
"A" Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00
"B" Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10 correction
"A" Milwaukee fade Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00
-------------------------------------------------
Wednesdays known games
49C H3 N.O.
57A H3 Boston

** A quick check - I feel I'm letting you down! The record for ALL teams in S1 is 62-1. A monkey could do this! LOL

**bgilic** · 12-09-13, 11:44 PM

Good work Grinder. Thanks as always. You are still not big time until trolls start to appear and mock you but give it few more months

**miczz14** · 12-10-13, 07:00 AM

why fade ind? they are good ATS

**BuckeyeKaptn** · 12-10-13, 07:21 AM

Originally posted by miczz14

why fade ind? they are good ATS

It's not Ind fade....it's Miami fade, (play) Indiana.

..just saw the second one..Ind fade, Miami...it's the system, not ATS spreads, how good at home etc.

**Grinder12000** · 12-10-13, 08:13 AM

CORRECTION = experimental is NOT fade Indiana - you are correct,

Should read "B" Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10

I gotta stop doing that late at night during football games

BTW - the lack of trolls does concern me!

I appreciate you guys spotting errors. I'm trying to get the plays up early and it looks like I have to slow down and be more careful.

**KC Needs Hockey** · 12-10-13, 12:14 PM

Keep up the good work and thanks for the post.

**bgilic** · 12-10-13, 05:02 PM

Well I ****** it up. Made a mistake and put money on the Heat.

**raangeman** · 12-10-13, 06:15 PM

Need help-- New to SBR.. Have been reading this forum... I "kind of" understand it, just not sure when to fade a team or take them.. If I was to start "Chasing" tonight, say OKC 1) is this the right time to start chasing them and 2) should I fade them or not.. Any help would be appreciated..

Raangeman

**bgilic** · 12-10-13, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by raangeman

Need help-- New to SBR.. Have been reading this forum... I "kind of" understand it, just not sure when to fade a team or take them.. If I was to start "Chasing" tonight, say OKC 1) is this the right time to start chasing them and 2) should I fade them or not.. Any help would be appreciated..

Raangeman

Hey mate,
Welcome to the forum and this thread. I would recommend starting with A series games which are brand new chases. If the series is games B or C it means it already started and you can still join but you missed first bet (which was a loss so not a bad thing either). Hope that helps.

**raangeman** · 12-10-13, 06:51 PM

Thanks bgilic.. Will keep following.. I took OKC -4..

**Grinder12000** · 12-10-13, 09:05 PM

Bgilic you are certainly not the first person to make a mistake. If it's any consulation, in your life it mistakes should all even out. You will only remember the losses though. It's how God intended it to be.

raangeman - this is a high risk high reward betting system. We hope to win MANY small bets but can lose BIG ones

Each "chase" is 4 games.
Lose the 1st game bet the amount you lose PLUS 1 unit.
Lose the second game bet what you lost the 1st game PLUS what you lost the 2nd PLUS 1 unit!

See below

Risk	Win
"A" 1.10u	1.00u
"B" 2.31u	2.10u
"C" 4.85u	4.41u
"D" 10.19u	9.26u

Chases are picked in various ways which I'll explain as we go plus a new experimental system when I have a few things I look for.

Each chase has a number such as 55A which means chase #55 A pick, also the system used such as O4 and S1 which I'll explain in coming days.

The main thing is I post how many units to risk and win each game. PLAY CONSERVATIVE until you see how a "D" bet feels and you are risking 10 units!

**bgilic** · 12-10-13, 09:54 PM

I am just glad that series is over. I messed up game B by over betting thinking it was game C and placed 4 units bet and today was 4.85 units. Just glad it is done.

**Grinder12000** · 12-10-13, 10:11 PM

Sorry for your loss. I truly know how that is. It's happened a few times for me this year. That's why I try to NEVER look at the other team playing. I had a ton on that Indiana game between the Mia FADE and the experimental Indiana chase.

I'm so freaking glad Nashville won on Wallcos NHL - whew that was 16 units!! Now if San Jose and NYIslanders can middle :-)

Bulls/Milwaukee - Chicago has 4 starters out! GREAT!!

**Grinder12000** · 12-10-13, 10:25 PM

12/11/13 48W-41L +28.04u

results
55C S1 Mia fade Indiana 4.85u to win 4.41u WIN
experimental
"A" Oklahoma WIN
"B" Indiana WIN
"A" Milwaukee fade Chicago (missing 4 starters) LOSE

Wednesdays games
49C H3 New Orleans 4.85 to win 4.41
56B O4 sac fade Utah 2.31 to win 2.10
57A H3 Boston 1.10 to win 1.00
experimental 31-13 +31.00
"B" Milwaukee fade San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.1
"A" Philly fade Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00
"A" Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00

Thursdays known games
known at the moment

*H3 = Whenever a team starts a home stand chase for one WIN ATS for 4 games (all teams)
*O4 = Whenever a team had an OT game start the 4 game chase (certain teams)
*experimental = Just handicapping using my brain and instincts in a 4 game chase.

**KC Needs Hockey** · 12-10-13, 10:54 PM

Nice to close a couple of series in one with the Indiana win. Just need to burry the new orleans game tomorrow and really recoup some of these bigger units! Keep up the great work.

**bgilic** · 12-10-13, 11:01 PM

If anybody else mentioned Indiana today I am going to lose it