New nba power rating system

[Bookman]

You are a patient and understanding person, Wiz.

People, the Wiz isn't running a service here where you can just log in to request today's winners. This thread is about the new system he's introduced us to and there are some of us who are truly trying to track it. So for those who just want a random pick of the day, please start a new thread.

[Data]

=IF(ABS(VLOOKUP(X2,B$2:M$152,12,FALSE)-VLOOKUP(Y2,B$2:M$152,12,FALSE))>1,IF(Z2<=-10," ",IF(Z2>=10," ",IF(AB2<-2,IF(VLOOKUP(X2,B$2:M$152,12,FALSE)-VLOOKUP(Y2,B$2:M$152,12,FALSE)<0,Y2,IF(Z2>0," ",Y2)),IF(AB2>2,IF(VLOOKUP(X2,B$2:M$152, 12,FALSE)-VLOOKUP(Y2,B$2:M$152,12,FALSE)>0,X2,IF(Z2<0," ",X2))," "))))," ")

Per PM request, the formula above allows dogs with higher PR, which makes sense but contradicts with rule 3. The formula below complies with rule 3.

=IF(W2<>TODAY()," ",IF(Z2*AA2>0," ",IF(ABS(AA2)>1,IF(Z2<=-10," ",IF(Z2>=10," ",IF(AB2<-2,Y2,IF(AB2>2,X2," "))))," ")))

[Formulawiz]

Per PM request, the formula above allows dogs with higher PR, which makes sense but contradicts with rule 3. The formula below complies with rule 3.

=IF(W2<>TODAY()," ",IF(Z2*AA2>0," ",IF(ABS(AA2)>1,IF(Z2<=-10," ",IF(Z2>=10," ",IF(AB2<-2,Y2,IF(AB2>2,X2," "))))," ")))

Does not work

[Cranium]

Wiz,

I want to thank you for taking time to post the plays and the PR Chart. You're patient and helpful. Good luck today and in the future!
Cranium

[tiojeta]

Locked CAVS -4.5 +100

[jtnguyen79]

so far Orlando looks good

[tiojeta]

CAVS -4.5 WIN
Thank you

[DaChozen1]

wiz,

How does the power ranking web site from sportstrends differ from the spreadsheet? Just was curious. Sorry if it's a dumb question.

[Data]

Does not work

[Formulawiz]

Todays plays in NBA

Based on early lines
MEM + 4.5 or >
LAK - 7.5 or <
CHA + 5.5 or >

Wins with CLE and ORL

Record 44 - 24 = 64.7

[Formulawiz]

Todays NBA PR Chart

NBA PR Chart

[mmike032]

whats the record since introducing the system on this forum?
last I seen was about 50%, any change

[Formulawiz]

Looks like its working
Thank you Data

[Formulawiz]

whats the record since introducing the system on this forum?
last I seen was about 50%, any change

I don't know. Why not ask your buddy Football Jesus, I am sure he is well informed as you are. If you have nothing to offer please keep your ignorant comments to yourself.

[casinojack]

Nice formula !! I was thinking the same thing..And thanks again for bringing this to us !!

[tiojeta]

LA -5.5
POR +4.5

And, I'm too scared about

SAC +13.5

LAC +10.5

What do you think?

[NBA Hero]

if you have doubt cause those are very poor teams right now. either leave it alone or bet very small. but whatever you do, decide on your own, so you can save your sanity.

im leaning on sac myself but decided not to go through cause of injuries and B2B. clips could have a field day for camby, magloire is no match for the defensive player of the year, but this is the clips, and secondly, i think ten times before going against wade. enuf said

[mmike032]

I don't know. Why not ask your buddy Football Jesus, I am sure he is well informed as you are. If you have nothing to offer please keep your ignorant comments to yourself.

I could give a shit about football jesus or any other tout.
just curious about the record since it has been brought to the forums attention jack ass.
you said it was something like 18-4 before posting.
and than after posting it was hitting at about 50%
so why not keep an accurate record with documented plays

[Bookman]

I believe you are mistaken on the Lakers, Wiz. Their difference is 10 (based on the above PR list) so they are a play at -7.5 or less.

Also, Orlando was not a play yesterday because several books had them at -6.5 and they needed -6 or less based on their -8.5 PR difference. Therefore, the only play yesterday by my count was Cleveland, and they were a winner.

For those who want to know how this system is actually working, let me just say the jury is out but it does show promise. I've been tracking the true picks (based on STRICT interpretation of the original rules) and it is 6-2 the last three days (I would be happy to list each game if necessary) and for the purposes of accurately evaluating the Wiz system I will begin with that record and add the games from here out. I know the running total is 44-24 or something like that, but that is not accurate (and if it includes the 16-4 pre-thread record then is 28-20 since the thread began). The problem is that for the first several days two rules were being violated: no plays if there is not a greater than 1-point difference in PR (Rule #4....it says GREATER than 1, not 1 or more) and no PK games (because the higher PR team has to lay more than 0 points....that was a rule explained by the Wiz himself). Even the Wiz is being liberal with these rules, but if it is a true system the rules must be hard and fast.

The Wiz has been a real sport by posting the PR list every day but one (1/21) and now that enough of us know the rules lets track this thing for real. It is off to a good start since Friday (6-2) with up to three plays tonight. I think the Wiz truly believes in his method, and I don't mean to doubt any past success using it; furthermore, if it works in the long run it shouldn't matter when we start tracking it. So, for those who are skeptical, let me definitively say this system is 6-2 since Friday (1/30) and I will track it here from that point.

[DaChozen1]

I manually entered the final scores from over the weekend because i couldnt update the spreadsheet... i didnt enter the closing lines just the scores and got the same 3 plays you did but it also put on portland too +3.5 over NO Did you get that one also?

[Willie Bee]

Let's keep the jack ass comments out of this thread. Thanks.

[Formulawiz]

I believe you are mistaken on the Lakers, Wiz. Their difference is 10 (based on the above PR list) so they are a play at -7.5 or less.

Also, Orlando was not a play yesterday because several books had them at -6.5 and they needed -6 or less based on their -8.5 PR difference. Therefore, the only play yesterday by my count was Cleveland, and they were a winner.

For those who want to know how this system is actually working, let me just say the jury is out but it does show promise. I've been tracking the true picks (based on STRICT interpretation of the original rules) and it is 6-2 the last three days (I would be happy to list each game if necessary) and for the purposes of accurately evaluating the Wiz system I will begin with that record and add the games from here out. I know the running total is 44-24 or something like that, but that is not accurate (and if it includes the 16-4 pre-thread record then is 28-20 since the thread began). The problem is that for the first several days two rules were being violated: no plays if there is not a greater than 1-point difference in PR (Rule #4....it says GREATER than 1, not 1 or more) and no PK games (because the higher PR team has to lay more than 0 points....that was a rule explained by the Wiz himself). Even the Wiz is being liberal with these rules, but if it is a true system the rules must be hard and fast.

The Wiz has been a real sport by posting the PR list every day but one (1/21) and now that enough of us know the rules lets track this thing for real. It is off to a good start since Friday (6-2) with up to three plays tonight. I think the Wiz truly believes in his method, and I don't mean to doubt any past success using it; furthermore, if it works in the long run it shouldn't matter when we start tracking it. So, for those who are skeptical, let me definitively say this system is 6-2 since Friday (1/30) and I will track it here from that point.

I use SBR and 12 out of 15 casinos they follow had -6 on ORL yesterday. As I expressed several times if the majority of casinos are in agreement with the same line thats what we use. Secondly The PR's are usually good for 2 days before they change slightly. The record that is posted presently is accurate and correct at 44-24 and its quite a bit higher since I have been using it since the begining of the season. Again no one is forcing anyone to use the system, it was made available for those who want to follow it. It is also important this system be used in conjunction with other systems for confirmation of plays. I believe when we first started the record was being kept for plays on teams with a lower power rating laying points and this became very confusing so I decided to keep my own records.
And by the way PR is a good play if there is a difference of 1 point or more. EX: MIL PR 100 and POR PR 101 is fine for a play if the conditions permit. I think your interpreting rule 4 incorrectly.

[Bookman]

Rule #4

"4. Only play games where PR's in any matchup are more then 1 pt apart."

Not much room for interpretation there, Wiz. That's rule #4 copied from page 1 of the thread. If it is not a rule, then let us know for certain.

Also, in a previous post you passed on a game because just one or two books crossed the overlay line, yet now you play Orlando because the majority of books held at -6. Now, there is definitely room for interpretation here, but please be consistent in how you describe your approach when the line straddles the overlay.

I'm not flaming here, just want to stay objective. Since you explained your reasoning for Orlando I will update my records to indicate a 7-2 record for this system since 1/30. All the better, as far as I'm concerned, and certainly valid because you provided the range prior to the game and many books offered it at a playable line. But it is just such games that could make or break people in this system, so again I beg for consistency.

[losturmarbles]

i believe he said he was 14-2 before he started posting, so an accurate record would be 30-22?

[Bookman]

Clarification

And Wiz, I don't mean to dismiss your 44-24 record, its just that up until the 28th you guys were counting games that 1) violated rule#4, and 2) were PK at gametime....that is why I mentioned the accuracy of the record. OTOH, the plays have been pretty cut and dry since 1/30 so I choose to begin with that date. If the system works, it shouldn't matter.

[cgars1]

Is it possible to list the formula/rules again...i would like to grasp this system and track as well...vs picking thru the threads and trying to find them...much obliged!

[cgars1]

Well the dude looked at the first post...

[Formulawiz]

Post #1, Rule clarifications

I added rule #7 about casinos and closing lines with respect to record keeping and also clarified rule 4.

It would be more helpful if people had some good ideas as how to improve the PR logic then worrying about what the win/loss record is. When everyone posts their own win/loss records it causes confusion.
Also we don't need wiseguys posting and trying to stir up the pot.

[Formulawiz]

And Wiz, I don't mean to dismiss your 44-24 record, its just that up until the 28th you guys were counting games that 1) violated rule#4, and 2) were PK at gametime....that is why I mentioned the accuracy of the record. OTOH, the plays have been pretty cut and dry since 1/30 so I choose to begin with that date. If the system works, it shouldn't matter.

For the 5th time, a pickem game is no play unless the team with the higher PR is laying pts.
The win/loss records have been tallied properly and consistently and in accordance with the closing lines published by the majority of casinos. Rule # 4 I admit was unclear but it has been clarified.

[MJAZER]

NBA PR Chart

Hi Formulawiz

When i went to the website http://www.sportrends.com/team_pr_pbb.htm and copied todays ratings 02-02-09 they do not match your figures plus they have only updated them within the past 30 mins??

Where do you get your figs from (need them early) +5 hrs where i come from.

PLEASE let me know it would help because the site http://www.sportrends.com/team_pr_pbb.htm figs are way out

Many thanks

[Bookman]

Okay, now I'm the idiot. How can a team with a higher PR be laying points if the line is PK? Aren't both teams laying 0 in an even line?

[Formulawiz]

Hi Formulawiz

When i went to the website http://www.sportrends.com/team_pr_pbb.htm and copied todays ratings 02-02-09 they do not match your figures plus they have only updated them within the past 30 mins??

Where do you get your figs from (need them early) +5 hrs where i come from.

PLEASE let me know it would help because the site http://www.sportrends.com/team_pr_pbb.htm figs are way out

Many thanks

Their NBA PR ratings are different then the spreadsheet PR's we are using. I have no idea how they come up with their PR's but it is generated by their software. You have to use our NBA -PR spreadsheet or the Chart I put up every morning

[Formulawiz]

Okay, now I'm the idiot. How can a team with a higher PR be laying points if the line is PK? Aren't both teams laying 0 in an even line?

You pass on any game thats a pickem. The rules state that a team with a higher PR of 1 or more must be laying points and in a pickem game the team with the higher PR is not laying points.

[gameday10]

When I turn my macros on and try to update scores i get an Visual Basic runtime error '91', but it updates the scores to the schedule tab but does not update all the games on the stats or lines tab. Like for 2/2 it only had 1 game up on the lines.

[Formulawiz]

NBA Plays yesterday and today

Yestreday the system went 2- 1

overall 46 - 25 = 64.8%

Plays will be posted a little later when the lines settle out.
If I make an error with the lines min/max values let me know.