Good looks on this system so far, definitely gonna keep an eye on it. I'm a firm believer common sense comes first and living and dying by a system is the wrong way to go, but when instincts match the system let it riiiiiiiide
"70% math play" system tracking
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cruyffSBR MVP
- 08-09-08
- 1041
#141Comment -
nick2060SBR MVP
- 10-28-08
- 1051
#142ok well i hope you remember my theory about home/away records being used and tommorrow is a perfect day to test that theory. ok now im not sure so im sure mundane will make corrections if necessary, but the lakers are a play i believe if you use the normal system. With the home away record systems it comes out to be a negative, so memphis is a play. Also i believe portland is a play, because they have the same records and once you add 3 and then subtract 3.5 its -0.5. If you use home away records its a no play. Orlando is a play in both systems im sure. so in short
Normal system:
Lakers
Orlando
Portland
Altered System:
Memphis
Orlando
Denver
So it should be interesting, there might be more plays but i g2g so well see how it plays out tommorrowComment -
pubster77SBR High Roller
- 04-25-08
- 215
#143lakers and orlando both arent plays because both spreads are double digits.
So for your altered system memphis/orlando both should not be played unless you altered the double digit filter.Comment -
porkchop817SBR Wise Guy
- 11-29-08
- 531
#144There are actually no plays tomorrow.
If Portland is +3.5, this is a no play. If you plug Denver into the formula as the selection, you get -0.5 like nick says. The play is at less than -1, so according to the formula -0.5 is not a play. If the spread is +4, then Portland would be the play according to the formula.
However, since the selection for the formula is based on which team has the better winning record, I would consider equal records a no play until we can see some examples. If its considered a play in your book, GL to you...but I would like to see how it plays out a few times before I put some money on it.Comment -
mundaneSBR MVP
- 02-25-08
- 3592
#145yep 12/22 no plays
ytd: 9-1 90%Comment -
willpiesSBR High Roller
- 12-18-08
- 128
#146I reckon that line will move and there will be a play xDComment -
SportsLockPicksSBR MVP
- 12-03-07
- 3386
#147interestingComment -
nick2060SBR MVP
- 10-28-08
- 1051
#148damn my bad, you guys r right, oh well maybe next timeComment -
SportsLockPicksSBR MVP
- 12-03-07
- 3386
#149does the higher the # you get on a "Play" over 10 or under -1 signify stronger plays?Comment -
nick2060SBR MVP
- 10-28-08
- 1051
#150you would think so because that just means a combination of a bigger difference in winning percentage, home field, or a lower spread, but i guess in gambling who the hell knows lolComment -
NBA HeroSBR MVP
- 12-05-08
- 1886
#152you dont post your picks anymoreComment -
The_KidSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-09-08
- 5049
#154Thanks for keeping this thread up, mundane. It looks like it's doing very well so far.Comment -
willpiesSBR High Roller
- 12-18-08
- 128
#1555k+views and at 9-1 why wouldnt u want to view itComment -
NBA HeroSBR MVP
- 12-05-08
- 1886
#156mundane,
system picks i mean.
none tomorrow. too bad, lot of teams looks good. like houston, denver which has 3 losses from good teams. and finally a reasonable -10 for lakersComment -
willpiesSBR High Roller
- 12-18-08
- 128
#157Maybe as part of this thread we should say that we buy a +0.5 point and make a note that we did that in context of portland. Unless of course the line changes. Maybe we can just buy +.5 points (maximum) to make a bet for the system. Also at pinnacle the line for lakers is -10 but if you buy half a point it can be -9.5 and it works for the system. Making 2 plays. Any thoughts Mundane Porkchop or others?Comment -
SexyMitSBR Hall of Famer
- 10-12-06
- 6139
#158Good to see the system is working to bad I didn't catch it and make some of the plays, will definately start following it and hope the percentage stays high and GL the rest of the season.If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!
I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!Comment -
Rio DiNeroSBR MVP
- 11-03-08
- 2010
#159I have been follwing and playing this system, from what I see it is key to get in on the right number. I have been tweaking it slightly, if a game is a double digit fav, I have been using teasers, and second half bets to get in on a better number. For example, yesterday Bos and Clev both qualified as plays even as double digit fav's, I teased them together. Today Orl qualifies as a play even as high as -17. I will monitor this game, and make bet in second half if I can get the right number.Comment -
mundaneSBR MVP
- 02-25-08
- 3592
#160never mind! it works either way.i was just being anal!
but i'll leave this attachment behind!Attached FilesComment -
mmike032SBR Hall of Famer
- 09-11-08
- 8905
#161invalid attachment?Comment -
mundaneSBR MVP
- 02-25-08
- 3592
#162try again.Comment -
mmike032SBR Hall of Famer
- 09-11-08
- 8905
#163worked that time, thanks
now I just have to figure out how to use it. I guess the instructions are in previous postsComment -
mundaneSBR MVP
- 02-25-08
- 3592
#164it actually was working even with >-1. i guess i was just being anal. :P
yeah, go through all my previous postings explaining how to use this excel file i made. u'd be happy how easy it is. no thinking on ur part, just plug in 6 numbers. and that's it! the file will tell u if it's a play or not. =)Comment -
Jumpman2SBR Rookie
- 12-19-08
- 2
#165I m new to this forum. I have been watching and tracking this system for awhile, I am wondering if anyone has tested it on college basketball and if so what the winning percentage is? ThanksComment -
EBDOGSBR Wise Guy
- 09-30-08
- 517
#166well they only play about 25 games in college so im guessing no one would use itComment -
porkchop817SBR Wise Guy
- 11-29-08
- 531
#167I have been follwing and playing this system, from what I see it is key to get in on the right number. I have been tweaking it slightly, if a game is a double digit fav, I have been using teasers, and second half bets to get in on a better number. For example, yesterday Bos and Clev both qualified as plays even as double digit fav's, I teased them together. Today Orl qualifies as a play even as high as -17. I will monitor this game, and make bet in second half if I can get the right number.Maybe as part of this thread we should say that we buy a +0.5 point and make a note that we did that in context of portland. Unless of course the line changes. Maybe we can just buy +.5 points (maximum) to make a bet for the system. Also at pinnacle the line for lakers is -10 but if you buy half a point it can be -9.5 and it works for the system. Making 2 plays. Any thoughts Mundane Porkchop or others?. I keep telling myself "don't mess with the numbers, just play the picks." Perhaps its because after reading all the other threads from people who used this system before us, I can't believe someone hasn't thought of this, and mentioned it. Keep up the good work guys
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Rio DiNeroSBR MVP
- 11-03-08
- 2010
#168While both of these strategies sound like solid and sound advice, I can't seem to get my head wrapped around them. I keep telling myself "don't mess with the numbers, just play the picks." Perhaps its because after reading all the other threads from people who used this system before us, I can't believe someone hasn't thought of this, and mentioned it. Keep up the good work guys
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willpiesSBR High Roller
- 12-18-08
- 128
#169Hey Rio I like your thinking as well. So are you saying you bet in play as the line changes? like with bet365, which bookmaker? cheersComment -
losturmarblesSBR MVP
- 07-01-08
- 4604
#170
like tonight, orlando would be a play if it wasnt a dd fav. (orl -12)
so hes saying that if orlando is down at the half, lets say by 5 points and the 2nd half line is orl -8.5, then orlando only has to win the game by 4 to cover the second half bet.
or it would be equivalent to a full game line of orl -3.5 which would have been a system play.Comment -
Rio DiNeroSBR MVP
- 11-03-08
- 2010
#171you could but he was saying he bets the 2nd half line if it shaves enough points off the full game margin of victory.
like tonight, orlando would be a play if it wasnt a dd fav. (orl -12)
so hes saying that if orlando is down at the half, lets say by 5 points and the 2nd half line is orl -8.5, then orlando only has to win the game by 4 to cover the second half bet.
or it would be equivalent to a full game line of orl -3.5 which would have been a system play.LOOKS LIKE U STILL HAVE YOUR MARBLES! Maybe you explain it better
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willpiesSBR High Roller
- 12-18-08
- 128
#172U can go nets +10.5 points now and thatd be a play probably misleading tho
now 20-9 +11
21-9 +12
23-9 +13
31-14 +14Comment -
SportsLockPicksSBR MVP
- 12-03-07
- 3386
#173this is why systems like this don't work for some people..everyone is trying to skim here and there by taking the dd fav's and halftime bullshit...follow the parameters that originally work, otherwise just go back to picking for yourself....i am really interested in this, but i wouldn't tweak itComment -
willpiesSBR High Roller
- 12-18-08
- 128
#174Yeah your right im just meddling with my own experimental formula.Comment -
pubster77SBR High Roller
- 04-25-08
- 215
#175this is why systems like this don't work for some people..everyone is trying to skim here and there by taking the dd fav's and halftime bullshit...follow the parameters that originally work, otherwise just go back to picking for yourself....i am really interested in this, but i wouldn't tweak it
but maybe we can test 3/4 systems at the same time.
Define exactly what the variation is and keep track of it in a seperate thread. Maybe we can make some good discoveries =)Comment
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