"70% math play" system tracking

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  • cruyff
    SBR MVP
    • 08-09-08
    • 1041

    #141
    Good looks on this system so far, definitely gonna keep an eye on it. I'm a firm believer common sense comes first and living and dying by a system is the wrong way to go, but when instincts match the system let it riiiiiiiide
    Comment
    • nick2060
      SBR MVP
      • 10-28-08
      • 1051

      #142
      ok well i hope you remember my theory about home/away records being used and tommorrow is a perfect day to test that theory. ok now im not sure so im sure mundane will make corrections if necessary, but the lakers are a play i believe if you use the normal system. With the home away record systems it comes out to be a negative, so memphis is a play. Also i believe portland is a play, because they have the same records and once you add 3 and then subtract 3.5 its -0.5. If you use home away records its a no play. Orlando is a play in both systems im sure. so in short
      Normal system:
      Lakers
      Orlando
      Portland
      Altered System:
      Memphis
      Orlando
      Denver

      So it should be interesting, there might be more plays but i g2g so well see how it plays out tommorrow
      Comment
      • pubster77
        SBR High Roller
        • 04-25-08
        • 215

        #143
        lakers and orlando both arent plays because both spreads are double digits.

        So for your altered system memphis/orlando both should not be played unless you altered the double digit filter.
        Comment
        • porkchop817
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 11-29-08
          • 531

          #144
          There are actually no plays tomorrow.

          If Portland is +3.5, this is a no play. If you plug Denver into the formula as the selection, you get -0.5 like nick says. The play is at less than -1, so according to the formula -0.5 is not a play. If the spread is +4, then Portland would be the play according to the formula.

          However, since the selection for the formula is based on which team has the better winning record, I would consider equal records a no play until we can see some examples. If its considered a play in your book, GL to you...but I would like to see how it plays out a few times before I put some money on it.
          Comment
          • mundane
            SBR MVP
            • 02-25-08
            • 3592

            #145
            yep 12/22 no plays

            ytd: 9-1 90%
            Comment
            • willpies
              SBR High Roller
              • 12-18-08
              • 128

              #146
              I reckon that line will move and there will be a play xD
              Comment
              • SportsLockPicks
                SBR MVP
                • 12-03-07
                • 3386

                #147
                interesting
                Comment
                • nick2060
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-28-08
                  • 1051

                  #148
                  damn my bad, you guys r right, oh well maybe next time
                  Comment
                  • SportsLockPicks
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-03-07
                    • 3386

                    #149
                    does the higher the # you get on a "Play" over 10 or under -1 signify stronger plays?
                    Comment
                    • nick2060
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-28-08
                      • 1051

                      #150
                      you would think so because that just means a combination of a bigger difference in winning percentage, home field, or a lower spread, but i guess in gambling who the hell knows lol
                      Comment
                      • mundane
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-25-08
                        • 3592

                        #151
                        Originally posted by SportsLockPicks
                        does the higher the # you get on a "Play" over 10 or under -1 signify stronger plays?
                        yes. safe to assume dat.
                        Comment
                        • NBA Hero
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-05-08
                          • 1886

                          #152
                          you dont post your picks anymore
                          Comment
                          • mundane
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-25-08
                            • 3592

                            #153
                            Originally posted by NBA Hero
                            you dont post your picks anymore
                            my picks? or system plays u mean?

                            well there are no system plays for tomorrow that's why i didnt post anything.
                            Comment
                            • The_Kid
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 02-09-08
                              • 5049

                              #154
                              Thanks for keeping this thread up, mundane. It looks like it's doing very well so far.
                              Comment
                              • willpies
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 12-18-08
                                • 128

                                #155
                                5k+views and at 9-1 why wouldnt u want to view it
                                Comment
                                • NBA Hero
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-05-08
                                  • 1886

                                  #156
                                  mundane,
                                  system picks i mean.
                                  none tomorrow. too bad, lot of teams looks good. like houston, denver which has 3 losses from good teams. and finally a reasonable -10 for lakers
                                  Comment
                                  • willpies
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 12-18-08
                                    • 128

                                    #157
                                    Maybe as part of this thread we should say that we buy a +0.5 point and make a note that we did that in context of portland. Unless of course the line changes. Maybe we can just buy +.5 points (maximum) to make a bet for the system. Also at pinnacle the line for lakers is -10 but if you buy half a point it can be -9.5 and it works for the system. Making 2 plays. Any thoughts Mundane Porkchop or others?
                                    Comment
                                    • SexyMit
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 10-12-06
                                      • 6139

                                      #158
                                      Good to see the system is working to bad I didn't catch it and make some of the plays, will definately start following it and hope the percentage stays high and GL the rest of the season.
                                      If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                                      I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                                      Comment
                                      • Rio DiNero
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-03-08
                                        • 2010

                                        #159
                                        I have been follwing and playing this system, from what I see it is key to get in on the right number. I have been tweaking it slightly, if a game is a double digit fav, I have been using teasers, and second half bets to get in on a better number. For example, yesterday Bos and Clev both qualified as plays even as double digit fav's, I teased them together. Today Orl qualifies as a play even as high as -17. I will monitor this game, and make bet in second half if I can get the right number.
                                        Comment
                                        • mundane
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-25-08
                                          • 3592

                                          #160
                                          never mind! it works either way. i was just being anal!

                                          but i'll leave this attachment behind!
                                          Attached Files
                                          Comment
                                          • mmike032
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 09-11-08
                                            • 8905

                                            #161
                                            invalid attachment?
                                            Comment
                                            • mundane
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-25-08
                                              • 3592

                                              #162
                                              try again.
                                              Comment
                                              • mmike032
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 09-11-08
                                                • 8905

                                                #163
                                                worked that time, thanks
                                                now I just have to figure out how to use it. I guess the instructions are in previous posts
                                                Comment
                                                • mundane
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 02-25-08
                                                  • 3592

                                                  #164
                                                  it actually was working even with >-1. i guess i was just being anal. :P

                                                  yeah, go through all my previous postings explaining how to use this excel file i made. u'd be happy how easy it is. no thinking on ur part, just plug in 6 numbers. and that's it! the file will tell u if it's a play or not. =)
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Jumpman2
                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                    • 12-19-08
                                                    • 2

                                                    #165
                                                    I m new to this forum. I have been watching and tracking this system for awhile, I am wondering if anyone has tested it on college basketball and if so what the winning percentage is? Thanks
                                                    Comment
                                                    • EBDOG
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 09-30-08
                                                      • 517

                                                      #166
                                                      Originally posted by Jumpman2
                                                      I m new to this forum. I have been watching and tracking this system for awhile, I am wondering if anyone has tested it on college basketball and if so what the winning percentage is? Thanks
                                                      well they only play about 25 games in college so im guessing no one would use it
                                                      Comment
                                                      • porkchop817
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 11-29-08
                                                        • 531

                                                        #167
                                                        Originally posted by Rio DiNero
                                                        I have been follwing and playing this system, from what I see it is key to get in on the right number. I have been tweaking it slightly, if a game is a double digit fav, I have been using teasers, and second half bets to get in on a better number. For example, yesterday Bos and Clev both qualified as plays even as double digit fav's, I teased them together. Today Orl qualifies as a play even as high as -17. I will monitor this game, and make bet in second half if I can get the right number.
                                                        Originally posted by willpies
                                                        Maybe as part of this thread we should say that we buy a +0.5 point and make a note that we did that in context of portland. Unless of course the line changes. Maybe we can just buy +.5 points (maximum) to make a bet for the system. Also at pinnacle the line for lakers is -10 but if you buy half a point it can be -9.5 and it works for the system. Making 2 plays. Any thoughts Mundane Porkchop or others?
                                                        While both of these strategies sound like solid and sound advice, I can't seem to get my head wrapped around them . I keep telling myself "don't mess with the numbers, just play the picks." Perhaps its because after reading all the other threads from people who used this system before us, I can't believe someone hasn't thought of this, and mentioned it. Keep up the good work guys
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Rio DiNero
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 11-03-08
                                                          • 2010

                                                          #168
                                                          Originally posted by porkchop817
                                                          While both of these strategies sound like solid and sound advice, I can't seem to get my head wrapped around them . I keep telling myself "don't mess with the numbers, just play the picks." Perhaps its because after reading all the other threads from people who used this system before us, I can't believe someone hasn't thought of this, and mentioned it. Keep up the good work guys
                                                          In other threads I have seen, the guy posts a filtered record(not playing DD fav's, injuries, and off btb game)and he posts a non-filtered record. The non-filtered was also hitting at a high clip. I don't want to confuse anyone so I will clarify a bit. With playing team in second half, I will not run system formula again with half time score, I will only play if system number is over 10 or under-1 based on closing line for game. For example, tonight Orl qualifies as a play, but they are double digit fav's so you filter them out. Now I will watch game at end of first half, if I can bet the second half and get a cover on Orl(in second half) with them winning the game by less then 10 I will play. It has been working well so far with dd fav's.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • willpies
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 12-18-08
                                                            • 128

                                                            #169
                                                            Hey Rio I like your thinking as well. So are you saying you bet in play as the line changes? like with bet365, which bookmaker? cheers
                                                            Comment
                                                            • losturmarbles
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 07-01-08
                                                              • 4604

                                                              #170
                                                              Originally posted by willpies
                                                              Hey Rio I like your thinking as well. So are you saying you bet in play as the line changes? like with bet365? cheers
                                                              you could but he was saying he bets the 2nd half line if it shaves enough points off the full game margin of victory.

                                                              like tonight, orlando would be a play if it wasnt a dd fav. (orl -12)

                                                              so hes saying that if orlando is down at the half, lets say by 5 points and the 2nd half line is orl -8.5, then orlando only has to win the game by 4 to cover the second half bet.
                                                              or it would be equivalent to a full game line of orl -3.5 which would have been a system play.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Rio DiNero
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 11-03-08
                                                                • 2010

                                                                #171
                                                                Originally posted by losturmarbles
                                                                you could but he was saying he bets the 2nd half line if it shaves enough points off the full game margin of victory.

                                                                like tonight, orlando would be a play if it wasnt a dd fav. (orl -12)

                                                                so hes saying that if orlando is down at the half, lets say by 5 points and the 2nd half line is orl -8.5, then orlando only has to win the game by 4 to cover the second half bet.
                                                                or it would be equivalent to a full game line of orl -3.5 which would have been a system play.
                                                                LOOKS LIKE U STILL HAVE YOUR MARBLES! Maybe you explain it better
                                                                Comment
                                                                • willpies
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 12-18-08
                                                                  • 128

                                                                  #172
                                                                  U can go nets +10.5 points now and thatd be a play probably misleading tho

                                                                  now 20-9 +11

                                                                  21-9 +12

                                                                  23-9 +13

                                                                  31-14 +14
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • SportsLockPicks
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 12-03-07
                                                                    • 3386

                                                                    #173
                                                                    this is why systems like this don't work for some people..everyone is trying to skim here and there by taking the dd fav's and halftime bullshit...follow the parameters that originally work, otherwise just go back to picking for yourself....i am really interested in this, but i wouldn't tweak it
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • willpies
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 12-18-08
                                                                      • 128

                                                                      #174
                                                                      Yeah your right im just meddling with my own experimental formula.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • pubster77
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 04-25-08
                                                                        • 215

                                                                        #175
                                                                        Originally posted by SportsLockPicks
                                                                        this is why systems like this don't work for some people..everyone is trying to skim here and there by taking the dd fav's and halftime bullshit...follow the parameters that originally work, otherwise just go back to picking for yourself....i am really interested in this, but i wouldn't tweak it
                                                                        I completely agree. We cant properly test this system if we allow exceptions etc.

                                                                        but maybe we can test 3/4 systems at the same time.

                                                                        Define exactly what the variation is and keep track of it in a seperate thread. Maybe we can make some good discoveries =)
                                                                        Comment
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