Good win by Souths, warriors were gallant
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Guys, for the TDF today I have:
Valverde @ 13
Rui Costa @ 67 (its lower now on live, but still value)
Bauke Molema @ 34
If anyone wants to throw some low stakes...Comment -
Great few days in AFL + NRL, Westcoast and Under were money all the way tonight. Sando pulling off some amazing plays again
Few thoughts on WNBA tomorrow
WNBA +2.46
San Antonio Silver Stars VS LA Sparks
LA sparks have been one of the best home sides going 7-0 at home, but still have not won an away game. They boast a much higher shooting percentage and concede a lot less points at home. San Antonio have ben struggling everywhere, but they are getting up to 3 players back this week which could help things. -13 Is a big line here, but well deserved after their last encounter was a blow out 87-48. I think this week we will see better offence from San Antonio but wont be a match for LA at home. LA game totals have gone under at home the last 7/9 times, but has gone over 4/5 times they have played San Antonio. Based on season stats Ive got this game at approx 95 - 69 giving us 3 or 4 points value on the Over. But if the inclusions of the 3 San Antonio players give the team a lift then we could be in for more scoring which is the only reason Im staying away from the line of -13.
OVER 161.5 @$1.91 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.36 UNITS
Seattle Storm VS Washington Mystics
Ill start out by saying the play here is take the OVER. These teams have a pretty poor style of defence and this game will turn 2 poor scoring sides into a shootout style game. Washington have been playing an awesome style of offence at home as of late and think they will take this game and cover the line as well. The last time these teams played the score line was 78-78 (before it went into OT period) This was earlier in the season before Washington found their offensive groove.
Washington - 6.5 @$1.91 X 1 UNIT to Win .91 UNITS
OVER 145 @1.91 X 2.5 UNITS to Win 2.28 UNITS
Connecticut VS Indiana Fever
Staying away from Fever line tonight, but I do have a slight lean on the Under in this match. Connecticut is still horrible in my opinion and Fever still allowing the fewest points in the comp with a slow offensive pace. In Fevers last 7 games at home, 6 totals have gone under. When these two sides met last the score line was 73-61. Only a one unit play due to both teams stinging me at some point this season.
UNDER 145 @$1.91 X 1 UNIT to win .91 UNITS
Yet another bad day in WNBA. We were unlucky on San Antonio and LA Sparks game not going over, poor shooting performance from SA killed us. Washington let a big first half lead disappear in the second half, and both teams played a much slower style of offence than normal, each quarter it seemed as though one struggled to score.
This takes my Record into the Red. -1.63 UNITS
Hopefully if Im on the right track with statistics on our side by the end of the season I'll will be on the right side of varience and come out with a profit and not a loss.
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Phoenix Mercury VS Minnesota Lynx
2 top performing teams here, especially on the offensive end of the court. Minnesota has taken two double digit wins this season against Phoenix, both on the road and at home. The bookies have put out a monster line of 175.5. I have not seen anything so high yet this season. Phoenix will be looking at breaking the Lynx tonight, and Im expecting more structure and smarter basketball on both ends of the court. Lynx seem to have a far greater advantage at home on defence, in turn their last 2 games they have managed 15-20 more shot attempts over Phoenix which is usually a big shooting team. Lynx have kept the powerhouse Mercury to 79 and 69 points in the last two contests. There are no injuries or line up changes for either side this match. Hence I think there is too much value on the under in this game.
UNDER 175.5 X 2.5 UNITS to win 2.27 UNITS
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C'mon Djokovic, hold a fkn service game!!!!!!!Comment -
I hope the under hits for you trigga. Moved against you but i think that might be squares pounding the over. It's now at 176.5.Comment -
yeah I think public are hammering the over, fingers crossed. Im annoyed I didn't pull the trigger on Chicago earlier, They are up 11 points at half time when the line was -1.5 for the game earlier. I didn't play it because Fowles was day to day, and she is by far their biggest defender and rebounder. Her absence hurt us a few plays ago when Chicago went down vs Seattle.Comment -
Id be interested to hear from the rugby guys on tonights mnf game. I think sea eagles have been dissapointing over last few weeks on the road and they could be in a good spot at home for a big victory against parramatta. Line is 18 points though...Comment -
Eels +18 is so Fade tonight
I'm an eels fan through and through and I see this being like 30-4 or something I will most def still have a minor play on the ml as a friend of mine who can smell upsets like a dog smellin shit said it will most Likely happenComment -
Sando, re sweetjones55, he's a low life tout, I wouldn't go saying anything positive about him. He can write big write ups but his record is fabricated and based on lines that basically no one can ever get. He was like that before he went tout too.
Re: MNF, 18 points head start is pretty crazy, that'd be the highest handicap all season?? Hayne is back but I can't see Parramatta scoring more than 2 tries here so the question is can Manly score 6? Truth be told I think that Manly have been pretty underwhelming offensively this year, lots of one out runs close to the line and lacking a bit of creativity. Reminds of the problems that Sharks have had in 2012-2013.
For props I'd be looking at the over for Minichello and Tuivasa for metres gained, I think Sandow will do a lot of 4th tackle kicking and will try for a number of 40/20's.
For the game itself, I think I'm going to just make an action play on the ML on Eels. The ML is stupid in a game such as NRL where a few fortuitous kicks and bounces can have such a big impact.
Eels were within 2 of the Roosters with 6 minutes to go (yes at their home ground), and were even with the sharks on their home ground till nearly 60 minutes in. So you never know.Comment -
Lynx win 91-59! Cash the under! Thanks mate, this play literally saved my weekend.
Looking at MNF, I think +18 is way too many points. The Parra/Manly rivalry goes back decades and regardless of form or ladder position it should be competitive for most of the game. It's the one game Parra will get fired up about. Combine that with Manly's lacklustre offense it could be a backdoor MNF classic.Comment -
Im a Parra supporter, and i just feel like the the close losses by Manly recently and the return of Brett Stewart is going to be a big game for them and they might blow Parra off the park but i wouldn't take them -18pts. A small stake on Parra 1-12 might not be a bad idea, they have to start turning things around soon and if they do it's great value.Comment -
You guys may be interested to know - I've tracked the M/L odds in excel for every NRL game since 2004.
A bet on any team paying more than $3 is ridiculously profitable, and goes up exponentially as the odds get bigger. Don't have it in front of me, but from memory betting on any team paying over $4 has an ROI of about 30%.Comment -
I originally liked Manly -16, my line has the game at around 19.
However, they have not been playing particularly well recently, and their record at Brookvale this season is not that great.
They are 3-3 H2H and 1-5 ATS, with their only blowout win coming against the Knights in round 2.
After going 5-1 to start the season, they have gone 2-1-5 since the ANZAC test weekend and are riding a 3 game losing streak.
The Eels on the other hand have been terrible away from Parramatta Stadium.
They are 0-9 H2H and 1-8 ATS, with only 2 losses being by single digits.
In their last 5 away games, they have lost by 18 points or more.
I have included their away "home" games in this record to highlight their awful away form.
The Eels were meant to be boosted by the return of Hayne from injury, but i'm hearing that he is more than likely to be ruled out of tonight's game so he can be fit for Origin.
This is one of the classic grudge matches in the NRL, dating back to the seventies.
The rivalry has only grown, with Manly continuously pouching Parramatta's best players (Lyon, T Williams, Horo, etc)
The problem is that the Eels severely lack depth and quality this year and if Hayne doesn't play, you'd expect them to get towelled up accordingly.
I am eyeing this game as a statement game for the Eels - they have no hope of making the 8 and will be viewing this as one of their "Grand-Final" games in order to avoid the wooden spoon and get one over their fiercest rivals.
The line movement seems to confirm Hayne's absence - but on current form, the Eagles are really struggling to put points on the board, but the Eels are playing everyone they meet into form.
The Stewart brothers should be better for the run last week, even though they are still out of sorts.
Having said all that, I have no clear lean either way.
If the Eels were playing the Roosters or Rabbitohs, then I'd take the start as they have been lethal in attack.
But Manly have been stagnant in attack and that is a massive line for a game of NRL.
Good luck whichever way you go.
BENRAMA
I don't think Mini and Shrek managed to beat the June 30 transfer window..... wasn't even aware that they were interested in leaving the Roosters for Manly???Comment -
The Eels also have a look-ahead game next week against the Panthers, who touched them up big time that last time they met.
Interesting fact you raise Rohan - let's see what happens tonight!Comment -
Updated Record - All Sports
Well the “action junkie” parlay was a stupid idea, missing 2 of the 5 legs, but otherwise a solid if not spectacular w/e for me. Finished with a 4 unit play on the Murray m/l last night at Wimbledon so definitely a great end to the w/e.
Up +5.45 units on the w/e across all posted plays, however more importantly went 4-0 on my big plays (2.5 units and higher). Perhaps a lot of the losing 1 unit plays should have been left as the “leans” they were, but oh well, like everyone else I am constantly learning as I go.
Won’t be posting any MNF plays tonight.
Hot Sports – NRL, Soccer, Netball
Cold Sports – Rugby Union, MMA
Active Sports
NRL +18.73 units (+2.17 units for the w/e)
AFL -6.74 units (+5.08 units for the w/e) -So happy to have a big w/e in AFL, does a world of good for my confidence.
Netball +5.02 units (+1 unit for the w/e)
MMA/Boxing +17.14 units (-2.8 units for the w/e)
Soccer +6.2units
Rugby Union -7.16 units
Dormant Sports
NBA +51.4 7 units
MLB +6.92 unitsLast edited by sando; 07-07-13, 10:04 PM.Comment -
Great work as usualy Sando, Good to have you back mate.
For anybody putting anything on tonights NRL. Hayne has been ruled out for the Origin decider and wont be playing tonight.
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Great weekend again Sando.
How come you dont post your tennis picks? Not complaining, just curious
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Yea mate, good observations and stats. Hayne is ruled out which is why the line has jumped to -18. The more I look at this game the more it has "stay away" written all over it. I'll probably have a small play on the under, because the Eagles defense has been world class, and as long as Parra can give 90% effort they should hopefully keep Manly below 30-32.
And yea bit of a Monday morning special with that player mix up!Comment -
Sorry that's BS, you just have to look at his archived public thread on SBR to know he would consistently post the best possible lines available anywhere that were unattainable by most betters - kind of like RAS but even worse. He'd often be buying up to 3 points or more as well, which greatly inflated his record. In fact, right now why don't you go onto the service plays forums and ask people what WNBA lines he is playing lately vs what people are able to get on the market? He's a fraud like the rest of the low-life scum of the tout world, and I can't stand people like you shilling for him.Comment -
I'd believe this 100%. I've seen something similar for NFL as well. Rugby League - like NFL - is a game of usually 6-8 "major" scoring events in the game. Every team - no matter how bad - has players capable of creating these events, and also creating situations where luck can go your way as well. Eels tonight will 100% have some chances when Manly drop the ball, or Sandow kicks a 40/20 or they make a line break, and they'll have bombs in the air that could drop anywhere, 2 or 3 pieces of luck and all of a sudden they are more like a 50/50 proposition.
Anyone betting a -900 ML in a Rugby League game is a bookies dream, the problem is people rarely have the patience to keep betting the big underdogs to get that long term ROI.
As I said though, I'll almost certainly put an action wager on the Eels tonight, betting 0.25 my regular units to win nearly 2 is worth it for entertainment alone.Comment -
Well if you made money this NBA season of SJ55 I'd suggest you call yourself lucky and get out while you can. If you must blindly follow there's plenty of smarter people on SBR and Covers that will give out plays for free.
I've been in this game too long and seen too many touts, with maybe 1 or 2 exceptions amongst 100's they are the bottom feeders of society preying on gullible people.Comment -
I'm with Benrama here only because i've been around long enough to see what SJ55 was like on here.
He was posting lines that were long gone or never existed. He was called out on a fraudulent record and was denying going tout even when someone found his website under construction.Comment -
Couldnt have said it better myself Benrama. At the end of the day League is 13 (not particularly bright) humans running against each other for a bit over an hour with a funny shaped ball bouncing around. The amount of Luck in League (and similar sports) is Unfathomable.
eg for tonight...Manly make a few mistakes, a couple of 50/50 decisions go Parra's way, holy shit, their up 12-0. All of a sudden the players start firing up and playing with confidence. The Coach gives them a rev up at half time. The Manly heads drop. Manly launch a comeback in the last quarter of the game but its not enough...Parra hang on to win 18-12 (or whatever).
Does the above scenario happen more than 12% of the time? Yes.
My bet on Eels tonight is at 8.10, meaning I need them to win 12.3% of the time to break even.
Any team paying above $4 in NRL is free money (lets call them team B). No matter how much you hear on the footy show, on the forums, in the papers, and by "experts" saying that team B has "no chance" of winning. Dont worry, after the game, 1 of 2 things will happen.
1. Team A wins, as expected - you will hear things such as (Yeah, as predicted, team B had no chance, it was just a matter of by how much team A would win by)
2. Team B wins. You will hear (Team A were favourites, BUT - team B played out of their skin, team A didnt show up, blah blah etc).
Its result and confirmation bias at its finest. Its a win win for the tippers - its either "we picked right we are the best", and if not - There is always an excuse ready, and 30 seconds later their talking about the next game. The prediction and pre game comments of "team B has NO chance" are instantly forgotten.
A few days later you'll see the same "experts" are back on TV, saying without a hint of shame, and with absolute 100% confidence, that team D has "no chance" against team C.Comment -
I am not touching that -18 point line .. why? cause Manly have been struggling lately ... but it is also the same reason I wouldnt bet against Manly too.
Manly have been dropping a heap of points lately, do you really think they will be lackluster against anyone ? I would be very very surprised.
I would lean towards Parra+18 but they will need to play well for it, I dont think Manly will play poorly.
Stewart doesnt generally is not a meter eater so he will probably have a lowish line, so could be good value if you think he will play well.
I will have a look at those player numbers, been finding decent value on those lately.Comment -
Just to make the game a little more interested im going to put a very small parlay.
Parlay 2 legs;
- Holden Cup - Parramatta eels 1-12
- NRL - Parramatta +18.5 / Under 41.5 ($11.60 Centrebet)Comment -
Made a couple of unexpected big plays ... fingers crossed, here they are in order
D Lussick O 30.5 tackles
D Lussick O95.5
Brett Stewart O97.5
Ken Sio O105.5
I have never bet the tackle count, but I am going for Lussick to have a big game for a number of reasons. Firstly, he is playing his former club for the first time ... so thats always a huge personal motivation. Also, this is only his second game on the run on side, he was used as a prop off the bench but last game and today he is starting at lock. That has affected his playing time .. he played 65 mins last game compared to a max. 44 mins for the rest of the season. He also came up with 40 tackles and 98 meters. The meters are obviously not great (still above the line set) but I think he will lift a bit more against his former club. Last game was against the Bunnies so it was a very tough forward pack.
Brett Stewart is a gut play, second game after injury and should be finding his feet more. Risky play but you would think he will come up with one clean break against a pretty ordinary defence like parra.
I liked Ken Sio over, and he has exceeded that line 5 out of his last 6. His numbers are vastly better when Hayne is out. The other winger Williame has only played 3 games and Mullaney is reasonably inexperienced too , so it looks like he chips in more when Hayne is out. Also he is playing opposite Williams which would be a much more attractive proposition that Williame against Tafua, so I would guess that his side will be the one they go to more often.
I was leaning under 120 for Loko, considering he is up against Lyon who is a great defensive player, but his numbers have been too good lately.
We'll see how that goesComment
