Just a quick heads up, got some big plays this w/e on what is one of the best looking w/e sports cards I have seen this year, so I am going to post them here (mainly NRL) probably tomorrow morning. I guess I can't stay away from this place after all.
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Ill only be posting up two plays for this weekends games!
1unit - Warriors +8.5 (1.96 centrebet pick your own line) - I've had a look into the game and the super hot warriors have a good record against the rabbitohs winning 4 from the last 6 and only lost by 2pts in their last game in round 5! They have proven that they can keep up with the big boys and I expect their form to continue up against what I believe is probably the best team in the comp this year! It is in Perth and it is an afternoon game which doesn't favour the warriors but the line at above 8 is too much value to pass up!
2 units - rooster -11.5 ($1.91 centrebet) the rooster are I believe the second best team in the comp closely behind the rabbitohs! They are such a great all round team they don't have many if any weaknesses! Sonny bill Williams is such a talented player! Last two weeks without Maloney he has played half back and absolutely killed it! Is there anything this bloke can't do? Maloney is back this week and most importantly to take back the kicking duties so they should be converting most tries! This is a simple pick in my opinion! The dragons struggle to score points and have very little creativity, now take away josh Dugan and you don't have many points, on the other hand the roosters haven't had any trouble putting points on any side this year!
Lets cash them both in this week! I had a couple of small leans but I said I wouldn't force plays after last week! For those who may want to have a bit of fun in some parlays I like the Panthers vs titans and storm 1-12!Comment -
I like the Dogs purely from a situational perspective - the Knights were massive last start winners, while the Dogs will still be smarting from that shithouse performance against the Chooks the week before the bye. The line is a little steep for my liking, I have this game at around -2 - However you can get -4.5 at Luxbet.
Not sold on the Warriors guys - they only just managed to beat a Broncos side that is clearly struggling. I have this line as double digits, so anything under is a play on the Rabbits. My only concern is that it is being played in Perth and the Rabbits have been on fire the last 3 weeks, so this may be a let-down spot. Looking at Rabbitohs -8.5.
i'll be posting my plays tomorrow morning......Comment -
This is the best looking round of AFL there has been all season in terms of match ups, ins and outs, form and the posted lines. Here are my thoughts on the games I like.
Carlton VS Collingwood
I love Carlton in this spot. You can tell a teams desire to win a match when they bring back their skipper 2 weeks early from a broken cheek bone. The ins for Carlton are more appealing than the ins for Colingwood with big guns Marc Murphy, Andrew McInnes and Andrew Carrazzo all named back in the squad. There is also headlines around Harry O'Brien having and coach Nathan Buckley not seeing eye to eye. Harry O'Brien is a big time defender who can tag big or small players and has been a good match on Eddie Betts in the past. Without Harry O'Brien they will also miss his explosive style of getting the ball out of half back. His absence will be massive tonight. I think Carlton will get ontop of this game and win comfortably. I would even suggest staying away from the 1-39 line as Collingwood will be unpredictable in this game.
Carlton -5.5 @$1.91 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.37 UNITS
GWS VS Western Bulldogs
Bulldogs have skipper Boyd out this week, who is one of the few senior guys who provide any form of leadership within their squad. Sheedy has come out and stated this week that this is a game they have had marked on the calendar as a winnable game. I got a feeling Bulldogs will be challenged big time by GWS. Look for GWS to come out and play the same style they did against Geelong.
GWS +29.5 @$1.91 X 1 UNIT to win 0.91 UNITS
North Melbourne VS Richmond
Not in love with this game, I think North will have some new found confidence after their big win last week against GWS. This is also a make or break game for North, if they don't win this game it will be very unlikely they will make a finals birth. Although North are ranked a lot lower than Richmond on the ladder, North have been robbed in about 5 games this year which they easily could have won. Richmond have a strong squad this week but without their main ruckman for the second consecutive game. North will be without star forward Lindsay Thomas after he got suspended for 2 weeks for a stupid head butt. Line seems accurate to me at Richmond -16.5, if I was to play this Id look at Richmond 1-39 points.
Brisbane VS Gold Coast
Big showdown for the two QLD teams. Brisbane has been in form as of late, being competitive against Hawks and beating Geelong. They will be without former brownlow medalist Simon Black for this game and have made 4 other changes. The desire is their for both teams to win. Goldcoast will be celebrating Campbell Browns 200th game and only have two changes this week including Luke Russel coming in to replace injured Karmichael Hunt. 3/5 of their last games between these two sides have been decided by less than 11 points and I think a line of +12.5 is a bit generous from the books.
Gold Coast +12.5 @$1.91 X0.75 UNITS to win 0.68 UNITS
Geelong VS Hawks
Hard game to pick. Both sides have very dangerous squads. On recent form and the inclusion of Rioli and Paul Popoulo this week, I think Hawks may have a bit too much run for Geelong and Id have to take Hawks. I think there is a bit of value in the 1-39 option as I don't think it will be a blowout.
Adelaide VS West Coast
Im not sure what the books are thinking on this one. Being a big Crows fan (but also a realist) I don't see how WestCoast will loose this one. West Coast welcome back Embley, Josh Hill (celebrating 100th game) and Jacob Brennan. Crows will also be without their best defender in Reilly missing with a shoulder injury. Adelaide has been hammered by showers over the last 24hours and there will be more showers coming over the next 3 days. The under 176.5 could be worth a look once more in depth weather reports come in for the weekend. I would also be interested in seeing the prop markets on Kennedy. I think he will kick 4-5 goals against Adelaide. I don't think they have the backline to defend Kennedy, Cox and LeCras successfully
WestCoast ML @ $2.30 X 2 UNITS to win 2.6 UNITS
Fremantle VS Saints
Fremantle probably have the best looking set of inclusions returning from injury that any team has seen this season. Coming back are Aaron Sandilands, Mathew Pavlich, Alex Silvagni, David Mundy and Michael Barlow. Saints on the other hand welcome back Lenny Hayes but loose key players in Nick Reiwoldt and Justin Koschitzke. Theres no doubt that Fremantle will want to be looking at getting into the Top 4 before finals, and to give themselves a good chance at what will be a tight finnish, they will need to boost their percentage. I think this game presents a great chance for Fremantle to get up big and get some serious points on the scoreboard. Fremantle is also renowned for its defensive pressure, which sparks the question how will Saints score? Saints only managed 55 points last week against Richmond who are not exactly known for their defensive pressure. Without Reiwoldt, Justin Koschitzke and Milne this could seriously be the lowest score posted by a team this season.
Fremantle -58.5 @$1.91 X 2 UNITS to win 1.82 UNITS
Saints team total UNDER (total not released yet but keep your eye out for it on centrebet and bet365)Comment -
Agree with most of those trigga, Carlton is my POTW for sure. Something is not right in the Pies squad right now, and who better to take full advantage than Malthouse.
I like the under in the Freo game as I think Saints could possibly score one of their lowest ever totals here. But I prefer to take game under to win this, as the team total line will be stupid low.
Will be on opposite side in the QLD derby - the G is a different place than Metricon and if they can beat Geelong there they can beat the Suns soundly. This is probably one of the last meaningful games for the Lions and I think they give a strong effort here.Comment -
I completely disagree on:
O'Brien has been matching up on Betts the past few years, but Betts has killed him for pace, kicking bags of 4 and 5 goals on him last year. O'Brien isn't a great defensive player, but his rebound is very good. This year he has been on the wing, and his last few weeks haven't really been great. Betts on the other hand hasn't really come back from injury the same player yet, and Marley Williams looks like a good match up without either Toovey or O'Brien in the side. The problem will be the other smalls and trying to cover all of them, and the lack of an AFL standard ruckman (Hudson and Witts have been smashed this year).
But I agree with:
The 1-39 is dangerous, as we're prone for a blow-out here if Carlton get on top. Collingwood's fade-outs have been pathetic, once the margin gets to 3-4 goals in the last quarter, they throw the towel in. Either side over 15.5 is great value I think, so it is no wonder the books are offering money back specials on the margin being below 20.
I agree with all of the other picks except for the freo/saints game, that line is very high. But big value on West Coast ML, GC line and tigers 1-39, hopefully there will be some nice hits there, I'll be playing most of those myself
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Haven’t done any totals yet. Just crunching spreads. Will probably have some totals plays in NRL/AFL later and will add some comments on my AFL plays too.
NRL
Tigers @ Sharks
3.3* Sharks -5.5 ($1.94 Luxbet)
With 5 or 6 former Tigers in the Sharks line-up they will be primed for a big game against their former club. No Gallen – No problem. Sharks forwards Lewis and Fifita are in rare form and the Sharks boast one of the best bench’s in the NRL with Gibbs and Bukuya both coming off the pine as impact players and wait until they start bringing Fifita's "little" brother off the bench as well. Carney has publicly stated his frustration at being snubbed for Origin and in these situations you would usually expect him to come out and have a big game. Playing at Sharks stadium is a big plus, the Sahrkies are very tough at home. Also Gordon and Ryan big in’s for the Sharks. The Tigers run ends tonight.
Roosters @ Dragons
1.5* Roosters -11.5 ($1.94 Pinnacle)
No Dugan, no Cooper, no form, no confidence, no chance . The question is simply how much do the Bondi boys win by? Maloney returns, SBW is unstoppable at the moment, key enforcer JWH is back to lead the Roosters pack. The Roosters with a massive advantage in the halves with origin pairing Pearce/Maloney taking on no frills duo Fien/Stanley with Fein usually playing hooker and Stanley usually playing in the centres. The roosters have the best 1-7 in the league, star studded at every position through the ¾ line and the halves and with the games next super-star getting better and better every game – 20 year old Roger Tuivasi-Sheck – the next big thing in the NRL and you heard it here first.
Rabbitohs v Warriors (Perth)
2.5* Rabbitohs -8.5 ($1.93 Bet 365)
Rabbitohs the #1 attack in the league with a full strength squad taking on the in form Warriors who have the 3rd worst defence in the league. There will be points in this game. The weather is expected to be fine for football and should not play a major factor. I will be having a good look at the total in this game as well, despite being set rather high at 44, I still have an early lean towards the Over. I have been riding the Warriors current hot streak, having played them at the m/l as a big dog against the Roosters and also the m/l against the Sea Eagles. I am always intrigued by this Warriors team and follow them closely, however this Souths squad at full strength are just fearsome with a significant advantage in the forwards and a massive advantage in the halves, as Sutton and Reynolds just move from strength to strength every week and read/understand each other so well and have probably surpassed Foran/Cherry-Evans as the league’s best halves pairing. Only through the ¾ line do the Warriors have a slight advantage with game breakers Hurrell and Vatuvei, however the Beast is struggling with leg injury and is unlikely to be at 100% and also as great as the Hurricane (Hurrell) is on attack, he is a continuing defensive liability and I can guarantee you Coach Maguire will be sending big boppers at Hurrell all day down the left edge to test his defence and tire him. The Warriors have a very nice pack, however their key enforcer Packer is also under an injury cloud and when you have to deal with not just one of the world’s most dangerous forwards leading the Souths pack in Sam Burgess, but also both of his twin brothers – 120kg behemoths George & Thomas coming off the bench (for the first time) and just charging at the defensive line again and again allowing no respite for the Warriors forwards, who also have to deal with Origin forwards Ben T’eo, Chris McQueen, and the super dangerous Issac Luke constantly bursting out of dummy half and looking to earn offside penalties and the Warriors will find themselves doing a lot of defending in their own half, with Reynolds pin-point kicking game pushing them back and earning repeat sets. Of course there is also Sutton and Inglis, who are both built like second rowers and will test the Warriors line in their red zone plenty themselves. Why do you think Souths look so good this season? It’s the same old story in Rugby League, the forwards do all the work and the backs get all the glory. Greg Inglis is just 1 man, and who the hell are Everingham, Goodwin, Walker, have you ever heard of these guys? It is because the Souths forward pack is SO dominant that these backs look SO good, as the halves and the ¾ line have so much time and space to think and hence to create. When you watch South Sydney play you are watching one of the best forward packs ever assembled - that is why they are so dominant, not because of GI and his mates, they are simply the “icing onthe cake”.
Warriors to get bought back down to earth this week by a Souths team that is at FULL strength for the first time in quite a while and everybody is playing hard for their spots such is the depth coming through at Redfern at the moment.
AFL
Carlton v Collingwood
1.5* Carlton -6.5 ($1.93 Pinnacle)
Suns @ Lions
2.5* Lions -11.5 (Pinnacle $1.96)
0.5* Lions (to win by) 25+ ($2.70 Bet365)
0.25* Lions (to win by) 40+ ($4.50 Bet365)
Sydney @ Melbourne
1.1* Swans 1st Quarter -13.5 ($1.90)
1.5* Swans -59.5(Pinnacle $2.02)
West Coast @ Adelaide
1.1* Eagles +9.5 ($1.92 Luxbet)
1* Eagles (to win by) 1-39 ($2.85 Luxbet)
Gelong v Hawthorn
2* Hawks 1st Half -3 ($1.88 Luxbet)
1.1* Hawks -6.5 ($1.90 Bet365)
Netball
Firebirds @ Vixens
1* Firebirds m/l ($2.00 Centrebet)Comment -
Just thought i would mention that sportsbet have a promotion on the AFL tonight, if your team lose by less than 20pts they will refund H2H (ML) bets. So maybe pound the Carlton ML ?Comment -
I'm looking at playing every single one of those plays this weekend too (apart from Netball which I cannot bring myself to bet on). Roger Tuivasi has been amazing all year, he's 25th in tries scored, 4th in linebreaks, 10th in runs (!), 11th in run metres, 6th in tackle busts. The guy is going to be a phenom I completely agree.
Carlton is going to smash Collingwood tonight, I have to suffer through all the Pies games as my in-laws are mad Pies supporters, their team is woefully out of form while Carlton are just a few missed kicks and a bit of luck here and there from beating the likes of Sydney. Pies have made some strange decisions in the last few weeks (Swan as a full forward in the last game when they are getting crushed in midfield??), and I think Buckley is a shi.thouse coach. Malthouse will expose all the Pies weaknesses tonight.
The only game I probably disagree with is Geelong, yes it's at the MCG (as a Cats home game) but Geelong just have the mental wood over the Hawks, it's an intangible that you have to factor in here. I like Hawks for first half but I see Geelong coming home strong in the 2H and taking the game. It should be a close one.
Completely agree on the Lions too, this could be a flogging. With Maloney and McGrath hitting some form and this being at the Gabba I can see a convincing win for the Lions here - IF they show up with 100% motivation, which they should given it's a derby.
BOL mate for the weekend.Comment -
Carefull boys it's only a max of $100Comment -
Good luck this week Sando, love the plays and good luck to all other fellow Aussies (And Hawley haha). For whatever reason the number of NZ migrants to Perth has been huge these last few years so expect lots of support for the Warriors, not that I think it will change anything - just thought it would be interesting trivia.
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I thought he would play despite the concussion, just confirmed via the same link you posted. This RTS plays a unique blend of wing and front row, he loves taking the hit ups and breaks a lot of tackles doing so. He won't stay under the radar for long.Comment -
I think he has been noticed for a while now, he will takeover Fullback duties once mini retires ... what a replacement
Player props:
Parker Over 150.5 ... Hannant is still out and Parker will rack up the meters again, he registered 181 meters when Hanant away and in general he hits that number anyway.
Bromwich over 115.5 .. He should have got there last week, Ryles out so potential more minutes
Todesco over 115.5 ... busy player, will get alot of touches
BTW whisper has Beau Ryan out for the sharksComment -
Bet365 nrl super coach most points h2h specials, some good value here
Michael Gordon ML
Wade Graham MLComment -
Strong line movement to Tigers late, now sharks -4. If its due to Beau Ryan than then someone has a way inflated view of his importance. Never like going against the steam at Pinny though ...Comment -
And Michael Gordon out!Comment -
Going for Melbourne -10 vs Brisbane. After back to back defeats Melbourne will surely win this and cover coming back their home ground. Not a huge play but a small flutter for a Friday morning.Comment -
Stuart Mills doom his best to Phuck us over!Comment -
Sharks 36 Tigers 22
What a fascinating game.
1st Half – Cronulla were irresistible behind Fifita and Carney. Tigers were garbage. Sharks 24-0
2nd Half – Sharks defence was like tissue paper.The Tigers were unstoppable and scored pretty much every time they got into the Sharkies red zone.
Literally two different teams turned up in each half. To lose and fail to cover from 24-0 at HT would have been horrendous.Comment -
spewing michael gordon didnt play, would have been a lot more solid under the high ball than mills, and his h2h opponent tedesco only managed 23 points where as michael gordon averages 53 for the season
wade graham should edge out a win currently with a 5 point margin over his opponent but the scores fluctuate so this will take some time to finaliseComment -
Boxing (Green/Alvarez fight card)
Featherweight
Billy Dib v Mike Oliver
(Live – ESPN 2 1030 CST)
2* Under 8.5 rounds ($1.50, -200 Bet365)
This fight has been cherry picked by promoter 50cent to get Dib back on the winning track and set up his IBF rematch with Evgeny Gradovich. Oliver a very experienced fighter (25-3) but 5 years past his prime. All three losses were via KO and his last fight was nearly two years ago when Juan Manuel Lopez made short work of him in two rounds. This is just a pay-day for him, a boxer’s gotta eat. Dib (35-2) with a 60% KO will be looking to make a statement after he dropped his IBF title via split decision to the Russian last fight ending a 14 fight win streak that included 10 wins inside the distance.Comment -
any of you guys betting the federal election?Comment
