Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

[sando]

Great weekend again Sando.

How come you dont post your tennis picks? Not complaining, just curious

I used to, that's how this thread got started. I was red hot in tennis and decided to start my own thread on SBR and never realized it would grow so exponentially, the plays were doing well and people seemed to love to bet on tennis. Anyway it all got out of hand and I started posting too many plays, and lost my system (due to buying some new tennis software that would constantly clash with my own analysis/opinions) and my judgement got clouded and everything went to shit - before, during and after the Australian Open, so I stopped posting the tennis plays and just stuck to NBA. My record had gone from up about 30+ units to back down to zero and probably closer to -5 units by the time I stopped. Now I've ditched that software and back to my old routine of selective plays. You can afford to be really fussy with tennis, because there is 10-200 matches on every day of the year. I guess tennis is the only sport I have "failed" on SBR and couldn't even be bothered grading my final 30 or so plays, which is a shame as tennis is what started it all for me as far as sports betting goes, back 17-18 years ago. If you want tennis plays, sign up to tennis insight. All the serious tennis bettors hang out on TI, even SBR's own tennis legend Shari occasionally drops in and there are 3 guys on there who post regularly and are guns, buts it's a paid forum, not free.

[OZnBa Fan]

I used to, that's how this thread got started. I was red hot in tennis and decided to start my own thread on SBR and never realized it would grow so exponentially, the plays were doing well and people seemed to love to bet on tennis. Anyway it all got out of hand and I started posting too many plays, and lost my system (due to buying some new tennis software that would constantly clash with my own analysis/opinions) and my judgement got clouded and everything went to shit - before, during and after the Australian Open, so I stopped posting the tennis plays and just stuck to NBA. My record had gone from up about 30+ units to back down to zero and probably closer to -5 units by the time I stopped. Now I've ditched that software and back to my old routine of selective plays. You can afford to be really fussy with tennis, because there is 10-200 matches on every day of the year. I guess tennis is the only sport I have "failed" on SBR and couldn't even be bothered grading my final 30 or so plays, which is a shame as tennis is what started it all for me as far as sports betting goes, back 17-18 years ago. If you want tennis plays, sign up to tennis insight. All the serious tennis bettors hang out on TI, even SBR's own tennis legend Shari occasionally drops in and there are 3 guys on there who post regularly and are guns, buts it's a paid forum, not free.

Mate if u get the time or if u can be bothered I'd love to tail some tennis picks?

[trigga50]

Phoenix Mercury VS Minnesota Lynx
2 top performing teams here, especially on the offensive end of the court. Minnesota has taken two double digit wins this season against Phoenix, both on the road and at home. The bookies have put out a monster line of 175.5. I have not seen anything so high yet this season. Phoenix will be looking at breaking the Lynx tonight, and Im expecting more structure and smarter basketball on both ends of the court. Lynx seem to have a far greater advantage at home on defence, in turn their last 2 games they have managed 15-20 more shot attempts over Phoenix which is usually a big shooting team. Lynx have kept the powerhouse Mercury to 79 and 69 points in the last two contests. There are no injuries or line up changes for either side this match. Hence I think there is too much value on the under in this game.

UNDER 175.5 X 2.5 UNITS to win 2.27 UNITS

Cashed on the Under. Game total came well under at 150points! Game went exactly to plan although was surprised Phoenix didn't put up more of a fight. They coughed up 21 turn overs resulting in easy points for the Lynx.

Back in the positive.

WNBA
+0.64 UNITS

[RedDevil89]

Made a couple of unexpected big plays ... fingers crossed, here they are in order

D Lussick O 30.5 tackles
D Lussick O95.5
Brett Stewart O97.5
Ken Sio O105.5

I have never bet the tackle count, but I am going for Lussick to have a big game for a number of reasons. Firstly, he is playing his former club for the first time ... so thats always a huge personal motivation. Also, this is only his second game on the run on side, he was used as a prop off the bench but last game and today he is starting at lock. That has affected his playing time .. he played 65 mins last game compared to a max. 44 mins for the rest of the season. He also came up with 40 tackles and 98 meters. The meters are obviously not great (still above the line set) but I think he will lift a bit more against his former club. Last game was against the Bunnies so it was a very tough forward pack.

Brett Stewart is a gut play, second game after injury and should be finding his feet more. Risky play but you would think he will come up with one clean break against a pretty ordinary defence like parra.

I liked Ken Sio over, and he has exceeded that line 5 out of his last 6. His numbers are vastly better when Hayne is out. The other winger Williame has only played 3 games and Mullaney is reasonably inexperienced too , so it looks like he chips in more when Hayne is out. Also he is playing opposite Williams which would be a much more attractive proposition that Williame against Tafua, so I would guess that his side will be the one they go to more often.

I was leaning under 120 for Loko, considering he is up against Lyon who is a great defensive player, but his numbers have been too good lately.

We'll see how that goes

Ken Sio run meters is 95.5 on centre bet at 1.87!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Manly carving them up already....3 tries after 20 mins.

Lucky for the Eels that Lyon has missed a couple of kicks.

Eels look shot to bits.

[benrama]

This will end up 50-0, training run for Manly.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Phuck yeah, Mitchell Allgood

What a shot on Matai - couldn't have happened to a better bloke!

[benrama]

Mitchell won't play again in 2013 that's for sure, not with all the recent focus on the biff. Haven't seen a cold punch to the head in a while, usually they at least try to turn it into an air swing.

[RedDevil89]

Well done s2230011 looks like all ur player bets came through! Lussick made 31 tackles haha

[aussieH]

What site are you using for NRL match stats.

[Johndrama]

gentlemen, regarding the wakfield vs widness game, what's the play?

[trigga50]

Got on board Manly for half a unit just before the game started and glad I did.

Well done to s2230011 coming up with some decent form in player bets!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Mitchell won't play again in 2013 that's for sure, not with all the recent focus on the biff. Haven't seen a cold punch to the head in a while, usually they at least try to turn it into an air swing.

Surely no more than 4 weeks, especially if he has a clean record and takes the EGP.
If anyone deserves it in the NRL, it's Matai, closely followed by Warea-Hargreaves.

[RedDevil89]

Matai is a mutt! He deserves every bit of what he got! He's done much worse!

[benrama]

I wouldn't argue re Matai I'm just saying that I think Mitchell is ****** here! Easy fall guy, no SOO star no marquee player this will be NRLs attempt to show they are "getting tough" on the biff - you watch.

[benrama]

Sando - just read your reply on tennis - I'm a member of TI who do you think there are worth following? I've found it mostly a bunch of rabble but haven't put the time in to find decent members - use it more for the stats.

[RedDevil89]

First time I've heard of this Tennis Insights site, is it worth joining up? Are there any decent tipsters on there?

[trigga50]

gentlemen, regarding the wakfield vs widness game, what's the play?

Couple of guys in here have said widnes is a chance to win, so take the 12.5 points

[rohan22no]

Just saw the o/u total points in the super league game is 57 points. Wtf? Do they have different rules or something?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Just saw the o/u total points in the super league game is 57 points. Wtf? Do they have different rules or something?

Yeah, focus is on attack in the ESL, defence isn't a priority, so you end up with common scorelines like 48-24.

[trigga50]

I got on the Widnes +12.5 for 1 unit, and had a stab at Any team to score 3 unanswered tries, (No) paying $3.00 for half a unit. (available at bet365)

[Rugby21]

I'm on the Vikings here they have averaged 29 points in there last 6 games but only have one win and a draw which shows you what their defence is like.

I've done widnes +12.5 1.91
small play on widnes to win at 4.00
finally over 58.5 points. The weather here is perfect. Great conditions for lots of tries

[RedDevil89]

Widens +12.5 cashes...just. I though those missed conversions were gonna cost them!

[Rugby21]

Widens +12.5 cashes...just. I though those missed conversions were gonna cost them!

Aye was a poor game. Glad it just came in

[sando]

Sando - just read your reply on tennis - I'm a member of TI who do you think there are worth following? I've found it mostly a bunch of rabble but haven't put the time in to find decent members - use it more for the stats.

First time I've heard of this Tennis Insights site, is it worth joining up? Are there any decent tipsters on there?

Yeah TI is handy for stats, however the main thing I appreciate are the write-up's. I couldn't care less who the guys tip seeing as TI $$ are of course not real $$, however I am a sucker for a good write-up. Whether I agree with a play or not I love to hear other people's analysis, it's one of the main ways that you can improve your own handicapping, and no matter how thorough you are, it's hard to cover every angle yourself. Others will inevitable find something you may have overlooked.

Our old mate "MakinitHappen" from this thread here on SBR posts under "Reader of the Game" he's pretty sharp, also the greatest tennis gambling mind "theDestroyer9" was seen posting some big write-ups during Wimbledon. He hadn't been around in a long time and was the original reason I joined TI years ago was because of the Destroyer and his rediculously in depth write-ups and knowledge of the game, way above my own level. There are a couple of others who consistently post winning plays (Grrace, MoneyMay) but not analysis, just tips.

It's not overly expensive, I think I paid just under $100 for the year, can't really remember? I have so many god damn money eating sports subscriptions...

[s2230011]

Got on board Manly for half a unit just before the game started and glad I did.

Well done to s2230011 coming up with some decent form in player bets!

Thanks Trigga50, all 4 plays hit .. Ken Sio and Lussick were Parra's top Meter gainer for Parra at 142 and 108 so reasonably comfotable there. Lussick also scrapped through 31 tackles ( although I could of sworn the nrl app had him at 33 tackles at one stage ) and Stewart cashed easy with 127 meters.

The back three for Manly had a field day ... I think Benrama mentioned something about them, and they had a field day.

I think there is value in those player props especially around Origin-time and when there are injuries. I am pretty sure the lines are set without that in mind. A couple of examples that got my attention was Parker when Hannant was out (although now his stats have driven his line so high), Bailey around Origin one had the same line .. but he played longer and chipped in more.

Obviously there is a higher risk with injury to the individual so its a bit of a different kettle of fish

[benrama]

Thanks Sando will check them out, TI is dirt cheap really if you are betting any meaningful $, no brainer.

And quality work again s22, you're officially the player props SBR guru. I'm thinking that it's an auto play on the back 3 every Eels away game from here on in. Looks like I missed out on my Minichello and Tuivasa props though

[RedDevil89]

I just signed up for TI, and wow you guys aren't wrong about stats, the site is so overwhelming with the amount of stats available.

Where about do you see peoples write ups? I couldn't seem to find any forum or anything like that?

[s2230011]

Interesting on back 3 V Parra ... but in general if the player lines will be set around the average then you would bet on every Parra opposition player ... there were 10 Manly player with over 100 meters !!! Thats insane !!

I have had a go twice on Mini and hit both times, I think Warriors game was one and cant remember the other. Never played Sheck because his line is always set very high.

I am a bit vague on which game but I really think Sheck is so impressive that we are starting to see sides avoid him and kick to the other wing (I think Uate a year or two ago had that effect too). I wouldnt bet against him but I think there maybe more opportunities for Topou to get his numbers up.

[benrama]

That's an interesting angle actually, betting that teams adjust to Sheck especially if we see this happen in one game, begging other teams to take notice. The thing is that a lot of his runs actually come from him getting the ball passed from Mini/Topou or him really going actively seeking the ball, particularly on the second tackle after a kick to their end. He loves running from dummy half and catching the defense off-side. Just a quality player all around.

I'm hoping we get some juicy player prop lines for the Raiders against Eels in Round 19. Storm in Round 24 lines will probably be unbettable. Also circled last round against the Knights, particularly if Knights need the win for a top 8 finish or positioning.

[s2230011]

Thats correct, fielding a long kick often one winger will field the ball brings back towards center field, the full back will get into dummy half and the other winger will be taking the first hitup.

Sisa Waqa from the Storm does that continuously for the Storm, I have seen him also randomly take a hit up on tackle 4. He is literally an extra forward for them.

Either way I feel there will be an adjustment coming to his game in the next few weeks.

We'll watch out for these games and see what happens from now till then

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Mitchell won't play again in 2013 that's for sure, not with all the recent focus on the biff. Haven't seen a cold punch to the head in a while, usually they at least try to turn it into an air swing.

Looking like 2 or 3 weeks mate....

[trigga50]

WNBA

Late Post, I was going to make a big play on Minnesota today, but their second highest scorer will be out this game with an injured ankle. Got a small Parlay going today though. Minnesota should still beat Atlanta, although Atlanta have some really good stats they have played some pretty average teams so far this year, giving them an impressive 10-1 record. As we whitnessed a few days ago Minnesota are unstoppable at home and should win. NY should also knock over Seattle today, Im expecting to be a low scoring affair but Im not game enough to take the under as NY has posted higher numbers over their last few games.

Parlay Minnesota ML + NY ML X 1.5 UNITS @$1.91 to win 1.37 UNITS

[OZnBa Fan]

Tim Watson said on radio this morning he has information from very reliabe source that the dees are getting closer and closer by the day of landing Paul Roos as coach

[RedDevil89]

WNBA

Late Post, I was going to make a big play on Minnesota today, but their second highest scorer will be out this game with an injured ankle. Got a small Parlay going today though. Minnesota should still beat Atlanta, although Atlanta have some really good stats they have played some pretty average teams so far this year, giving them an impressive 10-1 record. As we whitnessed a few days ago Minnesota are unstoppable at home and should win. NY should also knock over Seattle today, Im expecting to be a low scoring affair but Im not game enough to take the under as NY has posted higher numbers over their last few games.

Parlay Minnesota ML + NY ML X 1.5 UNITS @$1.91 to win 1.37 UNITS

I like Atlanta +5.5, i think they will keep this close and push Minnesota all the way. Plus we all know how much an important injury can affect a team in WNBA.