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Big w/e coming. It’s do or die time. Lining up 3 big plays (3+ units), 1 in NRL and 2 in AFL. I don’t normally like to make plays before teams are selected (Thursdays), however may jump the gun on a couple of these in order to get the best lines…Comment -
Sando! Sando!Comment -
Just found Swann 2 or more wickets in first innings at 1.98 odds, any thoughts?Comment -
Even on a turning wicket, 2 wickets is probably par for the course for the first innings. However, if Australia were to struggle against the likes of Anderson and have a top order collapse, then he may not get a huge chance to get enough wickets.
The odds seem fair to me, if anything I'd potentially have it a little shorter at about $1.90, but not too far off.Comment -
Can't wait for these plays sando would love to know your leans on the afl ??Comment -
Paul Roos looked a little uncomfortable on last night's "On The Couch" show....
Healy and Sheahan kept dropping lines about him signing as the Dees coach and he looked a little hesitant.Comment -
I was going to do a bigger write up, going more in depth but I was stuck at work on my mobile which makes life hard. The reason I was still confident in the play was when Seimone Augustus got injured it was only early in the second quarter against Phoenix and Minnesota were still able to blow them out in the remaining quarters of the game. Looks like they have got the bench to back it up and they also remain consistent at keeping teams to a low score at home. My original play before seeing Seimone Augustus as doubtful was going to be 2 or 3 units on a parlay of the Minnesota line and total going over. But as you said we have been stung big time before when just one player is added or removed from the lineup, so decided to play it safe today with the two ML's.Comment -
Yeah I'm burning I put it in a very nice parlay and it was the last leg! Wish I never put it in! I was going to either put that or Min ML! Ohh well shit happens! I took NY and under as part of that parlay which went well under and easy win for NY!
Were you going to put up your plays tonight or tomorrow sando?Comment -
Soccer - U20 World Cup
France v Ghana
1.5* France -1 & -1.5 (+125 Pinnacle)
The Frenchies getting better with every game and now clear favorites to win the tournament. The Africans should consider themselves lucky to be in the semi's. Frenchies have put on 4 goals in each of their last two knockout matches and they also beat Ghana 3-1 in their 1st pool match of the tournament.Comment -
WNBA +2.01 UNITS
Seem to be on the right track again couple of games, thoughts and plays for tomorrow. These are afternoon games in US so start fairly soon (early hours of morning for aussie guys)
Washington Mystics VS Chicago Sky
Alright so we have Washington visiting the hot Chicago Sky team. Chicago have been impressive all season, and have been profitable for us thus far. They seem to have the right mix of offence and defence, boasting a mixture of veterans and rising rookies. The way I see this game played out is Chicago will score and score well. At home Chicago average 86.2 and allow 73 points. (both those stats do not include the game that Sylvia Fowles was a late withdrawal and they got out played by the visiting Seattle). Chicago also tend to have good pace at home, it isnt unusual for them to jack up 80 shot attempts in a home game. Although Washington have made a few improvements to their season by having a couple of home wins against the lowly Seattle and Tulsa teams, I don't think they will have the answer for Chicago tonight. Washington have showed signs of being a streaky team and can put on points fast if their 3 pointers fall, but that statistic mainly applies to poor defensive teams.
The line of -8.5 seems to be a gift considering Chicago have beaten better teams by double digit figures at home. Both these teams are currently carrying a full roster and don't have any injuries that will effect the game. Washington are ranked very evenly over the 4 major stats, 7th, 7th, 8th and 9th (ppg, rpg, apg and pa) Because of their low ranking in points allowed and Chicago's impressive record at home, Im predicting Chicago to both cover and the over. Currently both these plays are against line movement, but in saying that quite a few plays such as the under in the Phoenix and Minnesota game have also been against the line and come out on top. (Prediction 92-73 total points 165
Chicago -8.5 @1.91 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.36 UNITS
OVER 157.5 @1.91 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.36 UNITS
San Antonio VS Phoenix
This is an interesting game considering the game total. Phoenix are the best scoring team but the worst points allowed team. They give up 85.5 points per game. That statistic is mainly due to being blown out 3 times this season by the Minnesota Lynx. These two teams played back on the 25/6 in San Antonio end result going 83-77 with Phoenix coming away with the win, thus giving us a 160 point total. Interesting fact is San Antonio have not played a game this year away from home where the total has exceeded 159 points. So the books have currently set this line at 167.5. The public seem to be all over Phoenix on this game, which I think is a bad move considering Phoenix's style of defence, it could easily be a game with both teams trading baskets in turn keeping the game close. Im actually backing the Over on this one. When Phoenix went to San Antonio, they only shot 29/68 (42%) compared to SA 30/8 (36%). Surprisingly SA got alot more shot attempts. If you combine the pace factor of this game and look at the ppg from Phoenix at home this season, I think the Over holds alot of value. Phoenix should easily post 90-100 points, the only danger factor being if San Antonio have an offensive slump like they have a couple of times this season. But I don't see them doing it here against the worst defensive team in the comp, and they should post 70-80 points. SA have also had some players return from injury recently, so could find some extra form on the offensive end. Ive got the game set out at 173 giving the play 6 points of value. Once again this is against the line movement but I think its a clever game total the bookies have posted, which will have public on the under.
OVER 167.5 @1.91 X1.5 UNITS to win 1.36 UNITS
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Kangaroo's, Eagles and the Hawks are the teams I am focusing on.
Will also be posting 3 NRL plays with write-ups about 7-8 hours from now. Spent so much time looking at stats today I nearly fell asleep...
Im surprised you haven't posted any more AFL plays yourself? The few you did post were very good. I guess the plumbing business must be keeping you busy.Comment -
Sando the bombers are the play at the line this week.
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Mate I barley have more then 5 mins to spend on here everytime I jump on, I had a realy good weekend last week ill try and jump on and do a few this week, with ur intial leans I really like north this week and I actually think they will go on a bit of a run but I just simply don't trust them on the road outside of ethihad, there is an interesting stat you should look at before you make a play on the eagles game, look at the previous results recently and I think you will find that more times then not who ever is the actuallHOME team usually gets the W regardless of ladder position id love for you to get back to me on that one???Comment -
2/3 today in WNBA got lucky on the SA and Phoenix game total coming in at 168. SA actually won the game by 8 points so in glad I didnt make any plays on Phoenix to win.
Chicago had a couple of bad quarters today so they were unable to cover the 8.5 points winning by 4.
+1.22 Units for the dayComment -
Todays MLB Picks
1 unit - LA dodgers v ARI diamondbacks under 8.5 ($1.90)
1 unit - TOR Bluejays v CLE indians under 8.5 ($2.00)
Also have them in a 0.25 unit parlay ($3.80)Comment -
Dodgers are on fire lately, averaging 6.4 runs over their last 8 games and going 6-2. Only problem is they have played 8 in a row without a break, however it is baseball and they do spend most of their time sitting and standing. I'm playing this too, been on the 1st 2 games against the D-Backs and the Dodgers won both 6-1. Fully expecting them to complete the sweep today with Ryu (7-4). 2* Dodgers (+104 Pinnacle)Comment -
I am on the LA Dodgers too, my only concern being they dont bat as well vs left handers. Skaggs pitched well last game only allowing 3 hits 0 runs. But i'm hoping the Dodgers keep it rolling and sweep the Dbacks.Comment -
NRL – Favourites to dominate. Dog’s be damned…
Most bettors slow down during the origin period. So much uncertainty surrounding teams and how they will perform with their big names out. For me I see it as a golden opportunity, and I tend to speed up during the Origin period. As long as you have a solid knowledge of a team’s depth, then you can still quantitatively estimate how a team will perform, accepting that as always there are unknown variables involved. Regardless you will find the most speculative lines during the origin period. Sports book traders don’t necessarily have any more NRL knowledge than many of us here in the more sports forum, what they do have is access to superior software and models, but that of course does not mean they cannot be beaten. Many new stars are born during the Origin period. The books have nailed the totals this week in my opinion. All three totals for the games discussed below are within two points of my own estimations.
Sea Eagles @ Cowboys
Cowboys missing their 5 of their best players to origin and injury , including 2 of their 4 “key positions” in JT and Matty Bowen. Bowen has been “set” for a return this round against the Sea-Eagles but not only has he been down on form, he is now coming off a long injury lay-off, so whether he plays or not, I am not convinced he will have much bearing over the game. Manly in scintillating form after they demolished the Eels 50-10. Yes it was against the worst side in the comp and the Eels are great at playing teams back into form, however regardless the Sea Eagles will have their tails up after that effort, and with Tafua, the Wolfman and Snake all having big games and running for 150+ metres, as well as Matai being primed for a big one after he was owned by Allgood, you can expect the Cowboys ¾ line to get dominated by the Manly backs, especially with Tate away on Origin duties and Bowen with injury and form issues. The Cowboys have the world’s best front row, with Scott running for 151 mpg, and Tamou running for 144 mpg, placing them both in the top 10 metre eaters this season. A combined loss of 295 metres per game is a massive hole to fill, especially against the league’s second best defensive unit in the Sea Eagles, who only give up 13.7 ppg. With no Scott and Tamou, the Cowboys pack go from being a V8 down to a 4 cylinder. On the other hand, the Manly pack can absorb the loss of Watmough to Origin without too many dramas, with fellow NSW origin player Jamie Buhrer slotting straight into the 2ndrow, also big Glenn Stewart appears to be back in form and with super-sub Georgie Rose and exciting young prospect Ligi Sao coming off the bench, Manly still has a clear advantage in the forwards (both Rose and Stewart are expected to play). Cherry-Evans will be missed at h/b, however Foran is more than capable of running the show by himself, especially with the young beast Peta Hiku (who is a junior kiwi and Warrior’s U20 player of the year last season) likely to partner Foran in an all Kiwi halves pairing. The Cowboys playing without their origin contingent in round 12 (Origin I) were crushed 31-14 by the Titans. In game II they were lucky and escaped with the bye during the Origin period, and now here we are coming into game III again without JT, Tate, Tamou and Scott. I have no idea what’s going on in NQLD at the moment, but something is not right? They have the 2nd best list in the NRL “on paper” (behind the Warriors) and yet have been far and away the biggest disappointments this season. Part of the reason I had such a rough start to the NRL season was because I was so bullish on the Cowboys early on and kept losing on them every week. I had them marked as a top 4 team pre-season and now they have almost no chance in hell of even making the finals. I mean who the hell lets a talent like James Segeyaro walk when he was so cheap? ?
The Cowboys have lost 6 of their last 8 overall and in their last game without the “big 4” they got demolished by the Titans. The Sea Eagles might only be 2-3 from their last 5 themselves, however stats can be deceiving as this includes a 2 points loss to the Warriors in NZ, a 2 point loss in a high scoring game against the ‘doggies at Brookvale, and a 6 point loss away to the hot Roosters - all respectable results against those teams. Manly’s form hasn’t been too bad and they will have more than enough firepower to sort out a woefully out of sorts Cowboy’s team missing both their captains (Scott and JT), which includes their unstoppable front row, their #1 playmaker and their two best backs, whilst Manly has two very exciting young kiwi’s (Hiku & Sao) to step in and cover for the losses of Watmough and DCF. Manly are a very experienced and disciplined team with a no nonsense coach and playing on the road does not faze them. They are 3-3-1 on the road this year with a draw against the Storm in Melbourne and a 2 point loss to the Titans and Warriors (all tough away games) and a 6 point loss to the Roosters.
4* Sea Eagles -7.5 ($1.95 Pinnacle)
Panthers @ Eels – The battle for the West…
Panthers have been the surprise packet of the season with a bunch of off season signings that nobody even noticed (James Segeyaro, Lewis Brown, Sika Manu, Wes Naiqama, Jeremy Latimore, Mose Masoe, Dean Whare) turning out to be just the thing the club needed to turn things around after the high profile departure of their star Jennings. NSW’s loss is Penrith’s game as big Timmy Grant has been overlooked for Origin selection. I must admit in my pre-season analysis I had the Panthers finishing last, however I am happy to say I was very wrong on this one. The Eels without both of their two play makers in Hayne (injured) and Sando (dropped). So the eels struggle to score points with these two in the team, averaging 14.9 ppg (equal 2nd worst in the league) and now what the hell are they going to do to create points and keep pace with the high scoring Panthers, who average 22.4ppg, which is the 3rdbest offence in the league, behind only the powerhouse Rabbitohs and Roosters. Parra lost their last 5 by an average of 25 ppg. No Hayne, no morale, no belief, no teamwork, etc, etc. The only thing going for the Eels is that they have played their best football at Parra stadium this year, with all 3 of their wins coming at home. However they have only won once in the last 5 against the Panthers @ Parra stadium. Panthers have been playing great since the bye, smashing the Dragons by 15 and then the Titans by 22. Might be tight in the 1sthalf, however in the end the Panthers should run away with it. 13+ in a high scoring game.
2* Panthers -6.5 ($1.70 Sportsbet)
1.5*Panthers -8.5 ($1.92 Sportsbet)
1* Panthers (to win by) 13+ ($2.30 Sportsbet)
Bulldogs v Storm
Melbourne without their 5 best players, with 4 missing to Origin (Cronk, Smith, Slater,Hoffman) and one to injury (Widdop). Let me say it again – Melbourne are without their 5 best players, think about that for a second…? The Storm have been the dominant team over the last 5 years and as important as “the big 3”are, it has been the support provided by their second level of stars that truly made them so dominant. This team is changing. First they lose their #1 enforcer Adam Blair to the Tigers, then key centre Nielson and also Todd Lowrie to the Warriors, and another enforcer Sika Manu gone to the Panthers, Fa’aoso gone to the Sea Eagles, and this is quite a different team to the core group of players this Storm team has revolved around for so long. Don’t get me wrong, they do have some exciting young talent emerging, guys like Fonua and Harris, but I for one am not fooled by the bygone "aura" that no longer surrounds Melbourne. They have been surpassed already this season by the Roosters and Rabbitohs and with teams like Cronulla and Canberra on the rise, and the ever dangerous Bulldogs, Warriors and Sea Eagles around, I think we have seen the best of Melbourne for now. Even their big 3 are probably slightly past their best, with Smith – 30, Cronk -29, and Slater – 30 and Billy the kid seems genuinely past his form of 2007-2010 when he was the game’s best player. Anyway I’m getting off track. Here’s what matters…
<!--[if !supportLists]-->- <!--[endif]-->Grand Final rematch for the doggies means no shortage of motivation going into this game.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->- <!--[endif]-->Doggies far less affected by Origin, with only 5/8 Josh Reynolds and centre J-Moz missing for this game, but still with the ever dangerous Inu and Barba in their 3/4 line.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->- <!--[endif]--> No Smith and no Hoffman for the Storm pack, coinciding with the return of the 122kg monster Sam Kasiano and also Greg Eastwood for the doggies, giving the Bulldogs forward pack a massive advantage over the Storm.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->- <!--[endif]-->Home game for the ‘doggies at ANZ stadium.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->- <!--[endif]-->Storm have a terrible record without their big 3. Throw in the added loss of Hoffman and Widdop and I can only see this game going 1 way.
The Bulldogs need this game bad as they have fallen outside the 8. They will have plenty of motivation having lost last year’s g/f to the Storm and coming off a pathetic effort last w/e against the Knights which included one of the most horrible two minutes of football I have seen as the Knights desperately held the Bulldogs stuttering attack at bay on their own 5m line in the dying minutes. Kasiano and Eastwood are big in’s and I expect the Bulldogs forwards to completely and utterly dominate the smaller Storm pack.
2* Bulldogs -10 ($1.92 Sportsbet)Comment -
great write up. I'm all in on the Eagles and Panthers.Comment -
Great write ups sando... Lets cash theseComment -
Crusaders and Magpies, what do you think Sando? Need straight up wins to finish off a parlay.Comment -
Not sure about this one mate.
The Eels are 3-2 H2H and 5-0 ATS this season at Parramatta Stadium.
Huge derby game for the Eels and they will be looking for revenge against the Panthers who pumped them last start at Penrith.
The Eels have responded well the following week after getting touched up.
In round 4 against the Roosters, they lost 50-0 then beat the Sharks 13-6 the following week.
In round 7 against the Panthers, they lost 44-12, then lost against the Cowboys 10-14 the following week, covering the spread.
In round 11 against the Titans, they lost 42-4, then lost against the Roosters 24-38 next start (after their bye), again covering the spread.
The Eels are a perfect 3-0 ATS coming off a rout loss when playing at home next start.
Surely they lift for this game?
If they can't win this (or at least keep it close) they are basically guaranteed the wooden spoon.
Derby game, revenge, wooden spoon, playing for contracts, team due for a win.
Too many factors to ignore in this spot.
Eels out to +10 now, they are a bet for me.Comment -
Rumors buddy might miss this weekend sandoComment -
You make some very valid points mate, however I have spent over 2 hours on this game including analyzing every Parra home game this season and I remain confident in my plays. Parra are garbage and it's only getting worse. 1 key fact that needs to be mentioned - Parra had both Hayne and Sando for all 3 of those "bounce back" games you mentioned. Neither one of them will pull on the blue & yellow on Saturday night. Who is going to create for them this week? Kelly? Roberts? Please... you know they are NSW cup level players. This wasn't mentioned on league teams or AFL rumours. What's your source mate?Comment -
Sandow is terribly out of form and deserved to get dropped.
Roberts is garbage and he'll be like an 18th man for Penrith with his poor options and woeful handling.
If it was against any other team, i'd back the Panthers, but against the Penny Panthers, who knows?
I do agree that Hayne is a massive out for them, but he hasn't played for so long, so it's not like their training has been affected.
Re the Bulldogs play - you realise the Storm have only lost 1 game by more than 6 points this season?
That was the game a few weeks ago against the Tigers in torrential conditions where they lost 22-4.
The Dogs looked very ordinary against the Roosters where they played without their Origin players.
They have only won 2 games by more than 10 points, one against the Sharks and the other against the Tigers - hardly inspiring form.
I expect them to win, but they've been struggling to put teams away after getting out to early leads.
One game that comes to mind was against the Dragons.
The Dogs totally dominated and had the Dragons under the pump for most of the game.
However after scoring early points, they fell to the Dragons' level of play and basically stopped playing.
The Dragons got a few calls, a lucky bounce and all of a sudden they got to within 2 points and if the game had gone on for 5 more minutes, probably could have won the game.
I really hope the Dogs can put a score on the Storm and kick-start their run to the finals.Comment -
Betting on the Coleman at sportsbet has been taken of the board. Points to franklin being out.Comment -
WNBA +3.23
Minnesota Lynx VS Indiana Fever
This game looks to easy to me so could very well be a bit of a trap but Im going for it none the less. These two sides have a bit of history in last years finals, Indiana winning the series but suffering many injuries since. They still have 4 players out whilst Minnesota have got off to a flying start. Minnesota have played their best basketball at home and struggled against some teams on the road. Going off Minnesota's recent games I have to back them in this spot visiting Indiana based on form from this season. There are a few things at play which are making the line so low. 1. Being the History of the two sides 2. Minnesotas second leading scorer is a 50/50 for the match 3. Indiana have won 3 straight at home and are on their best run of the season. My opinion is I don't think history will be a big part due to the different roster Indiana have, Minnesota have played really well without their injured star in Seimone Augustus and the 3 wins that Indiana have had at home are from arguably the bottom 3 teams of the comp this year (tulsa, connecticut and seattle). Sometimes you take these games which look too easy and they bite you in the ass, other times when you leave it your sitting on the couch wondering why you didn't place a bet.
Minnesota -4.5 X 1 UNIT @ $1.91 to win 0.91 UNITS
This game is kicking off shortly, for the Aussie guys around 1.30-2AM in the morning.Comment
