On it!
Thanks a lot.
You have a model you use for any other sports?
Thanks a lot.
You have a model you use for any other sports?
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On it BOL - If you had to take a side which one would you take? Thanks TG- you are the rugby kingComment -
editComment -
took the MLComment -
updated: NRL / Finals Season 2012 117-1-97 +42.32
Finals 5-2
Play #8
Bulldogs vs Rabbitohs OVER 40.5 2x 1.90
These two sides will be pumped and the elimination of one side adds to the value on the OVER. We have two of the best attacking sides facing off in what should be a try fest. The history between these sides is heavily skewed towards 40+ and that's where the value lies.. you get the feeling one side could run away with this match. Model has it at 46points and the last time they met it hit 42+Rolling with the OVER 40.5 at 2x 1.90. GL
Bonus play
Toyota Cup: Dragons +4.5 vs Raiders 2x 1.95
Dragons have been on fire the past few weeks and have clicked big time. They have a great record against the Raiders both at home and away from home. Dragons should be way too strong for the Raiders pack who have been just scraping thru their last few games.
Great value in my opinion. GL
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updated: NRL / Finals Season 2012 117-1-98 +40.32
Finals 5-3
Unfortunately we were just 1 point off the win tonight.. Adam Reynolds leaving the game took the bite out of South Sydney and changed the game. Very very unlucky.... Still at 40+ profit for the season with hopefully an added unit or two on the last play of the year next week. GLComment -
NRL / Finals Season 2012 117-1-98 +40.32
Finals 5-3
Play #9
Bulldogs vs Storm UNDER 36.5 1x 1.90
Books are very sharp on this game as you'd expect and there doesn't appear to be much room to move.
Given the recent points overload from both of these sides you'd expect the total to be leaning OVER but that's not the case. Both sides defensive efforts have been spot on and the history between these teams trends UNDER big time.
Model has this game at 34points and with so many totals around you could pick 34.5 at 2.10 for some value. However I'm rolling with the extra 2 points factoring in the field goal potential. Expecting a tight game with one team to break away in the final 10mins..
To finish the season 40+ units up we'll need this to hit. Can't go all year without a play on the big GF and rolling 1x UNDER 36.5 at 1.90
GL until April next year
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GL today TG. Congrats on a great season and look forward to next season!Comment -
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GL.
great season, congrats.
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went with bulldogs +1.5/over 36.5 points double @4.00Comment -
Storm win, dont throw your money awayComment -
glad to see we're on the same side GnP
good luck old mate, let's go stormers
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Great season whichever way this games result falls. go STORMComment -
Appears you'll finish off an excellent season with another winner, thanks for this summer (winter for you!), hope to see you around next season.Comment -
Well done mate, great seasonComment -
End of Season: NRL / Finals Season 2012 118-1-98 +41.22
End Finals 6-3
Ending the season up 41 units after a goal of 30units is a positive result - no crazy big unit plays, just consistent grinding week after week. Making money off the NRL can be done and the market is ripe for the taking without the sharps / big syndicates we see in the US.
Hoping to return bigger and better next year + exceed the 41unit profit.
GL till then and thanks for all the feedback / comments.
Still back-testing an NBA model and may look for that to fill the void. Unsure at this stage..Comment -
Congrats TG on a very profitable season..
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Fantastic season TG.
Have tailed you many times this season for collects.
Your tips and write ups are much appreciated here...
Cheers and hope to see you back for NBA.
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Not long to go now.... getting pumped working on some NRL models and early plays on All Stars / World Club Challenge.Comment -
Cowboys top 8 again?Comment -
and..... we're back!
Play #1 for the year to come within the next 48hrs for the All Stars gameComment -
NRL 2012 Record - 41units profit
This year we step it up a notch and concentrate almost entirely on TOTALS which was the big winner last year. It is what the model is geared towards and what I specialise in. The market is soft and is a great setup for the savvy 'sports investor'.
NRL 2013 - The goal: 55units profit
This is a highly achievable number and as anyone who has read this thread will know - there are NO crazy bets or double downs to achieve this goal. Most plays are 0.5 to 2units with the rare play above 2units. The aim is to invest in beating the books, not generate instant funds overnight. The history of plays and wins / losses are all in this thread to see.
Please feel free to post any insight or feedback so we can all work towards making some decent cash this year.
Pre-season plays
These are not counted in NRL totals stats but are treated as a dry run to the regular season.
First play for All Stars match on Saturday coming soon - books slow to open and will post as soon as they release totals figures. GLComment -
Good luck mate !!
Are they still trailing that 10 min period where the team takes a player off from the other team in the AllStar game ?
If thats the case the bookies will need to put a huge total for me to smash the over.Comment -
Cheers mate.. you too
Doesn't seem that rule exists this year. NRL want a fast flowing game and rules (below) seem to indicate that.. however if that results in a mass of points is still to be decided.
No power play this year. Last year the total was 64 but sides look a little weaker this year with a few big names missing.
Ruck Penalties
- For infringements in the ruck area by the defending team (holding down, leg pull, hand on ball etc.) which does not result in the breakdown of play (i.e. drop ball), the referee will indicate the infringement by blowing his whistle and signaling the infringement. The match referee will then immediately signal the restart of the tackle count which shall occur at the point of the infringement with a zero tackle.
- There will be no kick for touch for these infringements. Play will continue immediately from the point of the infringement via a play the ball.
- Any foul play in the ruck area by the defending team will result in a traditional penalty.
- Any infringement by the attacking team in the ruck area will result in a traditional penalty.
Quick Restarts
- This will see an extension of the quick restart from the 20m, with players allowed quick penalty tap kicks/restarts (apart from ruck penalties) from the point of the offence. Captains questioning decisions will be restricted to when they are in possession and scrums.
Restarts from Kicks
- For any attacking team that kicks the ball from the outside the opponents 30m line (30m from try line) and the ball goes dead in-goal, the opponent will receive the ball via a handover (tap restart) from the point where the kick originated once the match officials are in place.Comment -
NRL All Stars vs Indigenous All Stars
Play #1
All Stars vs Indigenous All Stars TOTAL OVER 51.5 1x 1.90
Waiting for the other books to open has paid off.. watching the total drop from 55.5 to 51.5.
Early reports of rain tonight might have driven it down, but the weather looks fine. The big names missing tonight are workhorses in defence and will be sorely missed. The NRL is promoting this game as being a try-fest and with more interchanges plus no rest time during kicks for touch / scrums it should be nice and fast.
Have this game at 58points which gives us 6 bonus points and makes it a play. Locking in the OVER at 51.5 1x 1.90.
First play of the year. Good luck!
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any lean on a side? thinking all starsComment -
I don't know what to thinkComment -
The AllStars were disgraceful in attack !!
I actually felt the Indiginous would get up but liked the Over more, Oh well.Comment
