AFL opening spreads

[Gee]

bleh.

Tough night last night.

Crows -18.5 3x and Melb 42.5 3x tonight. c'monn! lets get it today.

need shogun and silva here too. square a fuk, but they should win.

[GroundnPound]

I am all over Richmond +19.5 they can win this outright 4x

[Gee]

Nope, I hope not. One of us wins big or loses.

Upped both Crows and Melb bets (at 44.5) to 5.5x each.

[binomial]

i think richmond could keep it close, took adelaide 1-39 $2.30.

thinking GC may keep it within 40 points. melbourne fielding a weaker team and GC a stronger one. melbourne have been pretty hideous and GC should be able to put up a decent score against there token defence.

[brettels]

I'm having a play at first goal kicked 1-2 minutes. over 189.5(rich/adel) richmond win(fan pov)

[Lookingtostart]

I've upped the Crows as well.

Does anyone know what the lines closed at?

[donkson]

lol, I like the Crows bet, I was going to take it as well but I forgot.

I think they closed -19.5.

[Gee]

buried

[brettels]

am i the only one happy here??

[Ace_of_Spades]

Essendon/Port Over?

[Lookingtostart]

I managed to hedge most of my losses on this Port game, Crows were my most confident bet this week and it's the only one I lost!

[donkson]

lol, I like the Crows bet, I was going to take it as well but I forgot. I think they closed -19.5.

lol awesome.

Motivation played a huge part in this week's results.

[benrama]

What a crazy ass round of AFL, I made a live bet on Port at +49 when they were ahead in all categories in the 1Q, seemed too easy. Of course Essendon then went up about 20 points but turned out to be the right bet. Funny thing is the guy on the line was originally going to place my bet on Port Adelaide at 9:1 to win. Would have been throwing shit around the room in that last quarter.

I think the lesson from this round is that if a top-8 team is not fighting for a meaningful change to their top-8 position then don't assume they will bring their A-game. For next week, I think this puts an asterisk on Hawthorn and West Coast; and of course, fade those sorry ass Cats. I'll be placing probably my biggest bet of the year on the Pies to win on the ML, as long as I get at least $1.30 or better odds.

[donkson]

Must resist urge to bet Port next week. Will be tempting though.

[Lookingtostart]

Then maybe you should fade Hawthorn and West Coast? I might think about that if the spreads are humongous

[Lookingtostart]

Must resist urge to bet Port next week. Will be tempting though.

The Power have never lost a game at the Adelaide Oval.




I like Port for that game if the lines are close. Melbourne hasn't been convincing since they sacked Bailey.

[Lookingtostart]

[benrama]

I'll be on the Pies spread at -22.5, and expect it to go higher prior to game time unless there's some significant team changes (we already know Thomas is out). Have watched enough Cats games the last month or so - they are not going to win the flag this season, and are regressing to the type of team I thought they'd be at the beginning of the season.

Since Round 14, Cats have:

Lost to Essendon
Lost to WCE
Trailed to the BL for most of the game till 3Q time
Flogged Richmond, Melbourne, GC (irrelevant)
Beaten Adelaide by 11 points
Lost to Sydney

Meanwhile Collingwood is in prime form and played one of the best games I have seen them play against Fremantle on the weekend. If you watched it you know that Fremantle gave 100% in that game, only the Pies could have beaten them by that score.

The only concern I have with the Pies is they can have some off games with their kicking accuracy (e.g. against Carlton which they should have won by 40, not 19), but if they are on song on Friday night I expect them to win by 6 goals or more.

My other likely play for the weekend is:

GC +71.5 (last home game for GC, Hawthorn no motivation for a blow out and will play safe, avoiding injuries and with less than 100% effort)

And a multi on:

Collingwood/Sydney at $1.50

[kingsr]

It's a long season, teams are entitled to take foot off the pedal during the year (Geelong)

I wouldn't touch that game!

[benrama]

It's not a case of taking the foot of the pedal - all the teams do that, and the Pies seem to do it for a spell nearly every game - Geelong simply aren't playing good football. One telling statistic is that they are now 13th in the league in tackles per game, and 2nd last in clearances - the top 4 for the latter are Sydney, Carlton, Collingwood and West Coast. That will hurt them come finals time.

And for the game coming up, we have the following discrepencies in key stat categories, Collingwood vs Geelong:

Contested possessions: 2 vs 7
Tackles: 5 vs 13
Clearances: 3 vs 16

Inside 50's they are 2nd in the league, but who's number 1 - Collingwood.

I think this game will be an easy winner for Collingwood, who would have a much bigger challenge at this stage from Sydney or Hawthorn.

In fact, I think Sydney have incredible odds at 66:1 to win the title - I'll be posting on that shortly.

[Gee]

Horrible weekend last weekend.

Its taken until today for me to bring my sorry ass in here.

I don't really know about this weekend yet and kinda feel sick that I gave so much money back on Sunday, when I promised myself I wouldn't at this time of year. Its make me think I should just take my profits for the year and run... whatever the case - no more big bets this season and won't be bothered putting anywhere near the same amount of work this final round and for finals. Profit is locked in

[benrama]

Mate, don't worry about it, shit happens - I lost a months worth of profits betting on Geelong in a multi for fks sake, no matter how much you tell yourself you won't make rash money management decisions we all enjoy the adrenalin rush and it gets the better of us from time to time.

Good idea to bank the profits, I did that, and thank goodness because I was on monkey tilt after Geelong lost, betting on Japanese baseball and all sorts of shit.

Now I'm calm again and ready to make more rational decisions. I reckon still leave yourself money to make meaningful bets - you know you're going to want to, and you're good at making picks so pointless going back to betting for peanuts - no fun in that.

[kingsr]

Seems to me you're still tilting. You're trying to find reasons why Geelong can't win just beacuse they lost a meaningless match against Sydney. Geelong are seasoned team, they will lift come finals time.

[benrama]

I've made my money back (thanks Bodio on covers forum), so no tilt any more; and if you looked at my analysis of Geelong I've looked at their season stats and games since Round 14. I've also watched their games against Brisbane, Adelaide, Essendon and Sydney - which is why I was an idiot for betting on them against Sydney - I let the Skilled stadium record sway my thinking.

Yes they could lift for the finals, but I'd be betting against rather than for it right now.

[Gee]

Ben: Yeah, I'm not too worried about it. I'm more annoyed that I up my betsize so much when I shouldn't have (and i was a bit drunk, looking over stats and far too overconfident after UFC). It is a bit sickening, but, more to the point, I just feel really stupid about it.

Oh, I didn't mean take my profits and run literally. I bet all year around and on most days I meant that I won't be having too many more bets on AFL, so I don't have the chance of losing much of it.

There are only 8 regular season game and 9 finals games left for the season anyway. Thats right, only 17 more games and its all over. I have never been great at capping finals, because I think this requires a much more analytical approach to each player, which isn't the way I cap AFL. The final round is also traditionally a very difficult time to bet, so my taking it easy is for the best and probably should have started last weekend!

[benrama]

I swear the sportsbook industry would have it's profits cut in half if we were only allowed to bet sober! I once bet on a Hungarian water polo match after one too many, so at least you are sticking to things you know.

I personally find finals time to be the best time to bet, as teams give 100% so you don't have motivation as an unknown variable. You take advantage of tight lines by using PYOL and multi's carefully - it's what I did last year anyway.

For example, I'm pretty sure you'll be able to bet on the Pies -12 and Hawthorn +30 (give or take) at about even odds for the 1st week of finals.

[donkson]

There's no value in Collingwood at all, stats or no stats, 1st v 2nd priced at $1.30 is laughable.

[benrama]

1st vs 2nd means nothing, value comes down to a simple equation, would Collingwood win this game more than the odds imply. I think they win this at least 8 times out of 10 so yes $1.30 actually does have value IMO, and with Sydney almost certainly winning at home, it gives $1.50 for both - that is playable. My strategy works for me and I make a decent amount employing it - each to their own.

[donkson]

Interesting.

[kingsr]

But you're betting a game where the result means nothing! What if Coll decide to rest key players for conditioning before finals?

[benrama]

The Pies game against Fremantle meant nothing (in theory) and look what happened there - they played perhaps their best game of the season. The reason I trust the Pies in this spot is they have a healthy dynamic - competitive tension for spots in the team - they are the deepest team in the comp, by far - and Malthouse's perfectionism. So the result may mean nothing for the ladder, but it means a lot for the players in the team.

Don't get me wrong, I won't be going large on this game, but do I think a Pies/Swans parlay at $1.50 warrants a 1.5 Unit bet (to win 1 unit) - absolutely. I may lay off the Pies spread as they could let the Cats in the backdoor late in the game, but I still think they win convincingly.

[rjc]

Keep your head up Gee, you've been killing it. One bad week in ten ain't bad it's just unlucky you took a shot and went a little bigger than usual.
P.S. Picked up madden 12 today f@$king sick!!!!!!!!!
Everyone, go grab yourself a copy.

[Lookingtostart]

There's been massive line movement on the Hawthorn/GC game since the announcement of resting about 7 players. Hawks line looks much better now.

[brettels]

Got a good feeling about Richmond again! Low stakes weekend! Barely any bets, will be more vocal during finals!

[benrama]

Holy shit, knew I should have locked in Gold Coast early, line is unbettable now. I'm liking Richmond too the Pies and Swans and not much else. Would usually fade my Saints in this spot but they have everything to play for.