Yeah that sucks mate, it always happens when you feel like you have it in the bag
Coopertrooper's 2013 AFL thread
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johno35SBR MVP
- 10-19-11
- 1123
#351Comment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#353
Killer of a round, with the big play on Port Adelaide somehow losing and turning a very promising week into a shocker. Have to cop a week of terrible luck after a good week last week.
YTD: 49-68 +23.78 units
Units risked: 143.5
ROI: +16.57%
Big drop in ROI this week, will have to work hard to build it back up. Hopefully people have been tailing for a while and not just this week, apologies for the big play going under!Comment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#354ROUND 18 LINES:
Essendon +18.5 / Hawthorn -18.5
Gold Coast +14.5 / Carlton -14.5
Melbourne +54.5 / North Melbourne -54.5
Collingwood -86.5 / GWS +86.5
Geelong -49.5 / St Kilda +49.5
Fremantle -24.5 / Adelaide +24.5
Port Adelaide -15.5 / Brisbane +15.5
Western Buldogs +23.5 / West Coast -23.5
Sydney -26.5 / Richmond +26.5Comment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#355Round 18:
Play #1 - Parlay:
-Hawthorn 1-39, $2.25
-Carlton 1-39, $2.20
-Fremantle 1-39, $2.10
-Port Adelaide 1-39, $2.15
TOTAL: $22.35 X 0.5
Play #2 - Hawthorn 1-39, $2.25 X 2
Some very sharp lines this week I feel, I don't like any line plays at this stage. Hawthorn are up against a fired-up bombers outfit, but the hawks are still the best team going around. Franklin likely to be back this week, while Essendon are still without Watson, which sures up the hawks for this match. Should be a good match to watch, playing 2 units on the line being accurate here with the hawks 1-39.
Throwing in Carlton, Fremantle and Port for the parlay, all at 1-39. All lines are in the mid 10's or 20's and look to be very sharp. Carlton are up against the suns, who exposed Collingwood for poor execution. Carlton will take a lot out of seeing that match and are now a very viable chance for the finals, so absolutely must win here. Fremantle will be fuming after a loss to the tigers, and return home to play against the crows, who upset the cats this week. Don't be surprised to see the crows put in another strong performance, but hard to see that beating the dockers at home. Finally, Port will need to fire up after a scare against the saints. Brisbane are playing some good football, and port must not lose this game, or will face fierce pressure for 8th from Carlton. Expecting port to be good enough to scrape in, especially with the game at their home ground.
Comment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#356Play #3 - Port Adelaide/Brisbane Over 175.5 (BET365), $1.91 X 2
I really like the look of this play. These 2 sides have reasonable ppg's; Port Adelaide (179) and Brisbane (186). They are ranked #3 and #4 for playing on from marks, so they should give this game every opportunity to go over with open and free-flowing play. Both sides are capable of putting together high-scoring periods, so I would think the only concern would be accuracy and weather (which currently looks like it will be okay). Hanley is a big out for the lions, and he is usually very good at repelling opposition attacks with a good kick and a cool head. At the same time, Brisbane have been finding forward targets in Staker and Merrett, with Brown returning. Both sides should have plenty of fire power up forward. Playing this for 2 units.Comment -
trigga50SBR Sharp
- 03-01-12
- 326
#357Play #3 - Port Adelaide/Brisbane Over 175.5 (BET365), $1.91 X 2
I really like the look of this play. These 2 sides have reasonable ppg's; Port Adelaide (179) and Brisbane (186). They are ranked #3 and #4 for playing on from marks, so they should give this game every opportunity to go over with open and free-flowing play. Both sides are capable of putting together high-scoring periods, so I would think the only concern would be accuracy and weather (which currently looks like it will be okay). Hanley is a big out for the lions, and he is usually very good at repelling opposition attacks with a good kick and a cool head. At the same time, Brisbane have been finding forward targets in Staker and Merrett, with Brown returning. Both sides should have plenty of fire power up forward. Playing this for 2 units.Comment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#358
Hey mate, keep up the picks! Just thought Id let you know that I also checked out this game total tonight. The thing that scares me a bit is the weather. Although we have no rain forecast, its going to be very windy down at Westlakes on Sunday. 32km/h North Westerly winds in mid to late afternoon. I know its 3 days out, but could prove to be a poor goal kicking day. Closer to the day if we get a more accurate weather forecast it may be worth while looking at a wire to wire any other result bet.Comment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#359EDIT: Near a computer now so can update after last night:
Play #4 - Carlton 1-39, $2.20 X 2
As mentioned above, I think this is a must-win for the blues, an they will get it done, playing them for 2 units.
Play #5 - Parlay:
-Carlton 1-39, $2.20
-Fremantle 1-39, $1.95
-Port Adelaide 1-39, $2.10
TOTAL $9.01 X 0.5
I still want to give this parlay a chance. The odds have been reduced on both freo and port, but the parlay is still healthy at $9, so going to roll with half a unit.Comment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#360
Wow, another terrible bad beat. Carlton kick 3 goals in the last 5 minutes to sink it, with the Gold Coast stuffing up a kick-in with 17 seconds left, resulting in the goal that killed it in the last couple of seconds of the game. That one really sucked, can't buy luck this past fortnight!Comment -
lordkai35SBR High Roller
- 07-20-13
- 202
#361right there with you on carlton unbelievable.Comment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#362Across the AFL and NRL there have been some ridiculous beats this year!
I remember the gold coast doing the opposite to a bet I had last year, but got the 7 point play themselves, with Ablett kicking a goal from 65m on the siren. Now they kill it the other way! Unbelievable. Just have to take a deep breath and count the losses I guess.Comment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#363Play #6 - Fremantle 1-39, $1.95 X 1
Again I mentioned the reasons for this play above in the original parlay. Just playing 1 unit after being cut deeply this week, just need to stem the bleeding.Comment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#364
Round 18 (1 pending): 1-4 -4.05 unitsComment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#365Play #7 - Port Adelaide 1-39, $2.15 X 1.5
Port will need to fire up after a scare against the saints. Brisbane are playing some good football, and port must not lose this game, or will face fierce pressure for 8th from Carlton. Expecting port to be good enough to scrape in, especially with the game at their home ground, while Brisbane has a new attitude of finishing off games in recent times. playing it for 1.5 units.
Play #8 - West Coast 1-39, $2.30 X 1.5
West Coast are without some very big names this week (Glass, Naitanui, LeCras, Shuey, A Selwood) with an eye to resting players for next year, after a disappointing season. They would need a miracle to make it. They have some guys playing for a spot, with the rest of the team playing for some pride and confidence. The dogs get Boyd back. So, why play west Coast in what looks like a perfect let-down spot? Simply, the hunger of the squad should be greater. The dogs have been competitive in the past month, but played 2 poor/close games against the GWS and Melbourne (Beat GWS by 4, lost to Melb by 3), but came within 30 and 20 points of the bombers and hawks. They are trying to focus on keeping games close, while still scoring, but they don't have the ability to beat sides outside of the bottom 4 regularly. That is why I like them to keep it to under 39, but West Coast to still get the win. 1.5 units here as well.Comment -
hedgejobSBR MVP
- 12-21-09
- 2561
#366Bit of wind around in AdelaideComment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#367Everything conspiring against the over so far, even without looking at the wind. Port missed 3 easy goals from 10-15m out, as well as 2 shots that went out on the full, on top of ordinary kicking outside of that from the blustery conditions which is expected. Hopefully a high scoring second quarter can put things back on track...Comment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#368Sorry guys, I'm just cold this week. Brisbane now missing shots from 15m out, with port not scoring a goal from about 12 inside 50's this quarter. Unbelievable wastage for the number of attacking opportunitiesComment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#369
Painful fortnight, with things not clicking, as well as some very unlucky plays which have compounded the bad run.
YTD: 51-74 +17.95 units
Units risked: 154.5
ROI: +11.62%
Profit has been eaten into a fair bit. Should just be a down patch which was blown out by some shocking results, hopefully profit will remain healthy by year's end.Comment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#370ROUND 19 LATE MONDAY LINES:
North melbourne +22.5 / Geelong -22.5
GWS +3.5 / Melbourne -3.5
Hawthorn -28.5 / Richmond +28.5
West Coast -15.5 / Gold Coast +15.5
Carlton -2.5 / Fremantle +2.5
Brisbane -29.5 / St Kilda +29.5
Western Bulldogs +42.5 / Sydney -42.5
Adelaide +4.5 / Port Adelaide -4.5
Collingwood -4.5 / Essendon +4.5Comment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#371Round 19
Play #1 - Parlay:
-Geelong 1-39, $2.30
-Melbourne 1-39, $2.45
-Fremantle 1-39, $2.55
-St Kilda +29.5, $1.92
TOTAL: $27.59 X 0.5
Play #2 - Geelong 1-39, $2.30 X 1
Play #3 - Melbourne 1-39, $2.45 X 1
Play #4 - Fremantle 1-39, $2.55 X 2
Getting on quite a few plays early this week. Starting with the cats 1-39; Geelong are looking to sew up a top 4 spot against the roos. North Melbourne gave up a big lead to the cats early in the year and will still be stinging from that match - it ended up being the story of their season. North Melbourne have continued to be flat-track bullies with a belting of Melbourne last week, but have continually been competitive against top sides, yet not good enough to win. They also lose their captain, Swallow. Geelong should be too strong, with the roos likely to have their last match-up well and truly in their minds. 1 unit here.
After last week's results, Melbourne look weak with GWS looking competitive. But don't be fooled - last week's matches will have little bearing here. The roos belted Melbourne, but as flat-track bullies that means little, while GWS were in the contest against Collingwood for some time, in a game where Collingwood had had some of it's edge taken (after it's loss the week before) and where a tough last month was the main focus. Collingwood just didn't show up until they had to. So onto this week, and GWS have their best chance to notch up a win for 2013. They will come out with plenty of fight, which they showed recently against fellow struggler the bulldogs. Melbourne, on the other hand, need to gain as much momentum going into next season as they can, so a loss to GWS just won't cut it. Both sides have a lot to play for, despite the result having no real bearing on the ladder, so the value is going with the (slightly) better team - Melbourne. 1 unit here too.
Fremantle sit in 5th place, with a desperate need to win here to be in the race for the top 4. Lose, and they open themselves up to, at best, a home elimination final. They must travel and take on Carlton, who simply must win if they want their finals hopes to remain in their own hands. Both sides will show plenty, so this should be close. Fremantle are the better side, while Carlton are struggling for form at the moment, with the side being unable to click. Fremantle should be too good despite the travel, and there is great value at the 1-39 right now, jumping on for 2 units.
I'm also adding St Kilda +29.5 to the parlay. The saints have come off a bad loss down at skilled stadium, to travel up to the Gabba to take on the lions. The lions are strong favourites to win, but I am not convinced by them at the moment, despite a good patch of form. I think the saints are defensive enough to keep this game from blowing out, so I'll also be looking at the under later in the week.
Comment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#372Interesting that Collingwood are favourites against Essendon. As I've mentioned, I got the feeling over the weekend that Collingwood were focusing on this match and put little effort into the GWS match, so I think they are a sneaky chance, but to be installed as favourites? Anyone else find this surprising?
I saw that sportsbet had put up H2H and line odds for this match a fortnight out from the game, and the intial line was Essendon -6.5, which is now +4.5. Surely a loss to the hawks wasn't that unexpected, and how can it possibly move the line that much? The books must have the same angle I have, but how is that enough to make that big of a movement?Comment -
LilfatbumSBR Hustler
- 08-21-12
- 55
#373Hey Cooper... What you think GWS smashed from 2.35 (sunday) into 2.05 on Sportsbet, both teams will be desperate, will the dees be able to stop Cameron?Comment -
hedgejobSBR MVP
- 12-21-09
- 2561
#374Coop, I think COL are favourites for few reasons. The ASADA report is expected the day after this game and ESS players have been tweeting their disappointment with Evans resigning. There's a lot of off field distractions. On the field they haven't been impressive at all since Watson got injured. Even if Watson returns for this game he won't be 100% + all the off field stuff. And no doubt COL will come with Anzac Day revenge on their minds.Comment -
LilfatbumSBR Hustler
- 08-21-12
- 55
#375Latest update GWS has been dumped into 1.85... This is radical for a team that is winless... WowComment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#376Coop, I think COL are favourites for few reasons. The ASADA report is expected the day after this game and ESS players have been tweeting their disappointment with Evans resigning. There's a lot of off field distractions. On the field they haven't been impressive at all since Watson got injured. Even if Watson returns for this game he won't be 100% + all the off field stuff. And no doubt COL will come with Anzac Day revenge on their minds.
I find the strong interest in GWS quite surprising, it just seems to be based off last week/GWS not wanting to go winless. Form is irrelevant when these sides are so far behind most of the competition, and both sides have just as much to play for. The odds moving to about level is what I would have expected, but for it to continue to move since monday is interesting. I'm confident Melbourne will do enough, but we'll find out I guess!Comment -
hedgejobSBR MVP
- 12-21-09
- 2561
#377Over trend broke last round. Last 6 Fri night games gone over fwiw.
Under 80 over 70
R18: 6 under 3 over
R17: 3 under 6 over
R16: 3 under 6 over
R15: 3 under 6 over
R14: 5 under 4 over
R13: 4 under 2 over
R12: 6 under 0 over
R11: 5 under 1 over
R10: 8 under 1 over
R9: 4 under 5 over
R8: 7 under 2 over
R7: 2 under 4 over
R6: 7 under 2 over
R5: 5 under 4 over
R4: 6 under 3 over
R3: 1 under 8 over
R2: 2 under 7 over
R1: 3 under 6 overComment -
oBaMa_MaNiASBR MVP
- 01-20-09
- 1067
#378hedge got the updated ATS list?Comment -
hedgejobSBR MVP
- 12-21-09
- 2561
#379Carlton, Bulldogs, Swans are 3-0.
West Coast, Saints, Collingwood, Freo are cold.
R19 plays: Adelaide, GC, Carlton, Essendon
Port would be 0-4 ats if not for that late win against Saints. Adelaide looks like a good play.
GC at WC is also a play, 1st v last ats.
Looks like Carlton are putting it together.
Off field stuff hurting Essendon? They're 0-3 ats but Collingwood have been quite bad themselves. If not for that win against Carlton they'd be on a 0-6 run. I hope public pounds Collingwood. Every time the media/public thought the scandal would get to Essendon in their next game they have won it SU (against Adelaide and WC).
Comment -
whistSBR Rookie
- 07-12-13
- 7
#380Some big ins for Adelaide his week.Comment -
LilfatbumSBR Hustler
- 08-21-12
- 55
#381I find the strong interest in GWS quite surprising, it just seems to be based off last week/GWS not wanting to go winless. Form is irrelevant when these sides are so far behind most of the competition, and both sides have just as much to play for. The odds moving to about level is what I would have expected, but for it to continue to move since monday is interesting. I'm confident Melbourne will do enough, but we'll find out I guess![/QUOTE]
Thanks for the thoughts Cooper, as we all know GWS is being smashed 1.70 now, astounding, surely that means that value is going the other way... Even though we are talking about the Dees. Agree with your thoughts as form is irrelevant. Public perception is that GWS will treat this as their final, but question mark is whether Dees will turn up( I don't see why not!?)Comment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#382Good stuff there hedge, funny how many sides are 8-9 or 9-8 ATS, the lines have generally been pretty good this year.
Thanks for the thoughts Cooper, as we all know GWS is being smashed 1.70 now, astounding, surely that means that value is going the other way... Even though we are talking about the Dees. Agree with your thoughts as form is irrelevant. Public perception is that GWS will treat this as their final, but question mark is whether Dees will turn up( I don't see why not!?)Comment -
CoopertrooperSBR Wise Guy
- 02-20-12
- 925
#383Play #5 - North Melbourne/Geelong Under 206.5, $1.88 X 1.5
Wish there had been an MCG game tonight, it would have been an auto-under this morning with the rain that was coming (and it is currently pouring). The game at Etihad now has the total of 206.5 on sportsbet, which is quite sharp. The public is getting on board the over, based off the roos high-scoring games at Etihad. Looking at their earlier encounter this year, the total reached 220. However, the start of the year provided some very high-scoring matches and is tough to use as an accurate measure here. Geelong has been playing at lower-scoring venues lately, however their last 4 totals have been 173, 186, 128 and 154. Of those matches, Geelong have conceded just 232 points (with some poor opposition in that period). This total is fair, but my angle is against the public here. Geelong need to keep things stable and just do the job here - they don't need to focus on attack. North Melbourne will be out for blood, but whether they can kick a winning score is questionable, and I don't think they will. I'm thinking the scoreline will end up around 105-75. playing the under for 1.5 units.
Play #6 - Hawthorn/Richmond Under 189.5 (BET365), $1.91 X 1.5
Was looking at this play earlier in the week, but rain tonight will likely make it slippery under-foot tomorrow, so getting on while the total is still fairly high. We know the MCG is a tougher ground to score at. Richmond have not had big scores there this year, while the hawks don't play at the ground as often anymore, and have mixed form at the ground. Hawthorn just need to roll on, the tigers need to make a stand. Close games at the G' are usually low-scoring, so the under looks good here. It even allows extra room in case Hawthorn do get away from the tigers a bit. 1.5 units on this total too.Comment -
DHBSBR MVP
- 04-14-11
- 1538
#384very hard to pick the under in a roos/cats game especially at etihad.
but good luck mate, prove the public wrong, myself includedComment -
sandoSBR MVP
- 04-30-12
- 3723
#385Ballsy play mate but good luck. I wouldn't say it's just about fading the public here. Stats strongly support an over play too. In the 8 matches played at Etihad since the ground was opened in 2000, the over/under is 6-2 (based on this games total). The last 4 have all been over's, with one finishing on 209 and the other 3 finishing on 220+ The last Under at Etihad between these two was 2002. It's just something about these two teams playing each other at this ground, as at Kardinia park for example the total hasn't hit 200 for 7 or 8 years.Comment
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