Playing the day's biggest ML underdog on the PL

[rkelly110]

Cleveland is getting close to a straight up win. Betting the ML would be like
hitting the lottery.

I had one small number to clear my line, though our dog didn't win, 2 of the 3
1.45 gave me enough to clear it.

Miami's home ATS is pretty bad @ 9-15. We'll see.

I don't know if you noticed but, by the time I made my bets,
the Rangers odds stayed the same and won on PL. Edmonton's odds
dropped and won SU. Ottawa's odds went up and lost. Might
be a good indicator.

[oklahoma]

Cleveland is getting close to a straight up win. Betting the ML would be like
hitting the lottery.

Miami's home ATS is pretty bad @ 9-15. We'll see.

im hoping that cleveland is still a huge underdog when the wizards play there on sunday. one of those teams streaks has to end that day. hopefully cleveland is +400 or more that day.

and i see miamis home ATS is 10-14. shouldnt that work in indianas favor?

[rkelly110]

According to SBR's match ups, Miami is 9-15 ATS @ home and so is Indiana away.
Looking at my big dog 5 and over odds paper, Indiana is @ 5.75 ML +10 PS 5-2 71%.

The other matchup is the Clippers +9.5 @ 5.25 4-6 40%.

NHL big dog is Columbus @ 2.35 +1.41.

I'm not betting it because, the odds aren't @ 1.45 or above. You guys can.

There are no 1.45 system plays today.

There are 3 ML dogs today, for entertainment purposes.

San Jose @ 2.10
Carolina @ 2.00
Buffalo @ 2.25

GL today.

[oklahoma]

CBJ has been above 1.45 for a couple hours now so im on them.
bol with everyones picks tonight.

[rkelly110]

Good job, oklahoma. I laid off and bet my ML dogs and Indiana instead.
Should've listened to you and added more into my account.

[oklahoma]

anaheims biggest dog +185. 5 games on the pl.
gl tonight.

[bombCanada]

Hi guys, I'm back, and CBJ won outright last night. Love it. Rather than lay off because of the huge juice, I simply laid a minimum size bet, and will return to the normal lab line progression tonight. On a system that's 64% for the season I hate to skip a bet!


Tonight like oklahoma says we're on ANA.

[rkelly110]

Yeah baby, let's get 'em!

1.45 and over plays are:

Montreal +1.47
Nashville +1.52
Edmonton +1.47
Ottawa +1.52
Anaheim +1.62 (our dog of the day)

ML dogs are:

Columbus 2.05
Montreal 2.40
Phoenix 2.30
Anaheim 2.70

No NBA dogs over 5.00 today.

Welcome back, BC.

[stickbit]

hey BC I was wondering if you wouldn't mind giving a quick breakdown on how you handle your labby line? Or point me to a specific post where you explain your version? I'm very experienced with labbys but you can tweak them so much i want to see how you are doing yours...you mentioned you are up 134 units or something? Thanks in advance. I'll give points!

[oklahoma]

rkelly do you have a 1.45 sys win/loss record? i know tonight wasnt anything to go by but ive been curious the past couple days. no worries if you havent been keeping a tally.

[bombCanada]

And ANA wins outright as the NHL Big Dog play of the night.

I'll never get tired of saying that.

[rkelly110]

For the month oklahoma, the 1.45 system, including last nights mess, is 11-9 55%
They don't seem to be winning like they were at the beginning of the season.
Oct. 67% Nov. 67% Dec. 64% Jan 62%. Totals for the season were posted
by BC and myself a few pages back. Hope this helps.

(the 1.45 is turning into an entertainment system, something to laugh at)

[rkelly110]

This month so far, for my ML dogs, is 15 of 29 52% +4.55 units, in case anyone is wondering.

[bombCanada]

Tonight we have double dogs, CAR and our pals NYI. Good luck!

[rkelly110]

Thanks BC. Let's get 'em!

Carolina and NY Islanders are 1.45 plays also.

Only one ML dog play for today, La Kings.

No, NBA 5 and over plays for today.

stickbit, I was in the service plays section for yesterdays SBP wed. plays.

A guy named Long Term, is using a 4 number lab line. Instead of adding the loss
to the end of the line, he was recalculating the line. He takes his line total + the loss
and dividing by four. He only needs two wins to clear the line, no matter how large
the numbers get, instead of keep adding losses to a regular line and taking
forever to clear, the line gets cleared after two wins.

I run a 4 number line, I think I will try that.

As far as what BC runs, we had a discussion on that around Jan. 1st. You
can check past threads around that time.

[bombCanada]

For the month oklahoma, the 1.45 system, including last nights mess, is 11-9 55%
They don't seem to be winning like they were at the beginning of the season.
Oct. 67% Nov. 67% Dec. 64% Jan 62%. Totals for the season were posted
by BC and myself a few pages back. Hope this helps.

(the 1.45 is turning into an entertainment system, something to laugh at)

So after 4 months of 60+%, you're 11-9 in Feb and ready to wave the white flag? Good grief man! Don't give up yet! If you really have doiubts keep playng but use half units or similar.

[rkelly110]

Thanks for the pep talk again, BC.

Right now it looks like comedy central. I'm at minimum bets now.

[rkelly110]

Just like that boys, Winners!$!$ WooHoo! Another line cleared!

[oklahoma]

2-0 on PL's
1-1 ML, still profit though
good looking day

[oklahoma]

well this is a rare day. 8 games on the board, not one 1.45 pl and the dogs arent really dogs its a pretty even day in the nhl.

[rkelly110]

Yeah, I see the same thing.

I have 4 ML dogs for today. (for your entertainment)

New Jersey @ 2.20
Colorado @ 2.10
Minnesota @ 2.20
Anaheim @ 2.10

NBA big dog is New Orleans +9, 5.00 ML. My records show 5.00 is 11-4 73%

GL today, guys.

[Locke]

hey folks (rkelly, okl, bc)
been reading alot of your thread, and i'd have to admit that while i was skeptical to begin with, the dog on the pl seems to be paying off. glad you have had success! it is a testament to how tight the nhl really is. just wondering if you ever discriminate against some matchups. for example the sens playing the canucks earlier this week. although van didnt cover until the last minute or so, i would have considered the sens to be an expected loss (on pl) and might have bet the second biggest dog. hopefully im asking the question with clarity. good luck with your picks today!

[bombCanada]

hey folks (rkelly, okl, bc)
been reading alot of your thread, and i'd have to admit that while i was skeptical to begin with, the dog on the pl seems to be paying off. glad you have had success! it is a testament to how tight the nhl really is. just wondering if you ever discriminate against some matchups. for example the sens playing the canucks earlier this week. although van didnt cover until the last minute or so, i would have considered the sens to be an expected loss (on pl) and might have bet the second biggest dog. hopefully im asking the question with clarity. good luck with your picks today!

One self-identified problem with this system is that inevitably judgement calls are required, and I confess to a rather cavalier attitude at times... but hey, it's working. I have made a New Year's resolution to try to get the rules for this system down on paper by the end of the season (like that makes any sense) so that we do this next year without forgetting what worked.

So yes is your answer, I do discriminate in choosing the biggest dog of the night, and I don't care whose feelings I hurt. And don't ask me to explain how I do it, because I don't know.

[bombCanada]

Okey Dokey, so Carolina covers and the Islanders win outright (why are they so unloved? I love them a LOT!).

As was pointed out, this is one of those nights when none of the dogs are really dogs... and that can mean only one thing on the puckline, LOTS OF JUICE!

Tonight, for the 2nd night in a row, we have double Big Dogs of the NHL of the day (night), half a wager on each. MIN and ANA. Both are in the -235ish range, depending on book, meaning they don't even qualify for the 1.45 system.

I took a look at whether past dogs worse than -200 were a better bet on the money line, and it was inconclusive. So once again, the attempt to filter isn't worth it, the system is pure, and I'm ready for a tasty beverage.

[rkelly110]

Just got done with some tasty beverages myself, BC.
No discrimination here, Locke. No capping or discrimination, allowed.
Biggest dog on PL only. 1.45 and over only. Except for BC, he likes the
Caps. He does his own thing with them.

Islanders 9 and Detroit 6? Holy shit!

[oklahoma]

Islanders 9 and Detroit 6? Holy shit!

i dont know whats up with these games lately. mtl/bos 6/4, pitt/nyi 3/9. theyre makin the goalies sweat this month.
and new orleans +9 win the game straight up, lovin these picks.

[bombCanada]

MIN and ANA both win 5-4. The system continues to kick ass.

[bombCanada]

System has now won 6 straight. Last time it did that was 11/18, when it won 7 straight.

[rkelly110]

Sure, the Cav's win when I'm on the other side, Jackwagons.

I bet New Orleans and my NHL ML dogs. I'm glad we all had winners.

[bombCanada]

CAL tonight at VAN as Big Dog NHL. Last time CAL was big dog, it was also at VAN, and they won SU.

Nice work rkelly.

[rkelly110]

Thanks BC, good job on your end too.

Two early ML dogs:

LA @ 2.30
Ottawa @ 2.05

GL

[stickbit]

rkelly thanks for getting back to you on that labby question, appreciate it.

[rkelly110]

Thanks stickbit, no need to give points, appreciate them, though.

3- 1.45 plays today:

Carolina +1.45
Colorado +1.47
Calgary +1.60 (our dog play)

2 more ML dogs

Carolina @ 2.40
Chicago @ 2.00

No NBA 5 and over plays today.

GL today, let's get 'em!

[pm4e]

A word of caution. There was a 9 day losing streak of playing the biggest ML dog on the puckline last year, from January 14 to January 27.

[stickbit]

wow...thanks for the info pm4e...did you happen to backtest all of last season?