LTA's NCAAF Plays

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  • Love The Action
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-08-10
    • 10952

    #1576
    Pinny remains at 72.5, despite the rest of the market dipping back down to 72, indicating that they continue to get hit with over money. With the action split on the total, that's a great sign.
    Comment
    • NowMillionaire
      SBR Hustler
      • 08-23-11
      • 65

      #1577
      I have 4.5 units on the over 71, big play, let's go !!!!!!! 150 minutes remaining !!!
      Comment
      • BubbleTeaJelly
        SBR High Roller
        • 08-11-11
        • 170

        #1578
        good luck...hope the gas stays on the pedal all game...all the stats back up the play...but hope the ohio coach doesnt strategize a game plan to slow it down given niu's offense..... my only concern...
        Comment
        • Love The Action
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-08-10
          • 10952

          #1579
          Originally posted by NowMillionaire
          I have 4.5 units on the over 71, big play, let's go !!!!!!! 150 minutes remaining !!!


          As Bart Scott said, "can't wait!"
          Comment
          • Love The Action
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 11-08-10
            • 10952

            #1580
            Originally posted by BubbleTeaJelly
            good luck...hope the gas stays on the pedal all game...all the stats back up the play...but hope the ohio coach doesnt strategize a game plan to slow it down given niu's offense..... my only concern...
            Sure, that's possible. However, that will require that Ohio get off to an early lead. I don't see that happening. I think NIU scores first and does not let up. This will require that Ohio play similarly. It's all about quarterback play in this one. As I said in my writeup, Tettleton is a great qb and he is a younger version of Harnish with the ability to run and throw. With this game played indoors with no elements, I don't think Solich could slow this game down even if he tries. Both teams have explosive offense that can gash you for large chunks of yardage play after play. I think people are really overestimating Ohio's defense tonight. This is the same defense that gave up 31 points to Temple's turtle-like offense. If that slow attack of Temple can get 31 off of Ohio, what do you think the Huskies are going do to them on that fast indoor track? Every which way I view this game it all comes out the same at the end -- a shootout. Good luck.
            Comment
            • Love The Action
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-08-10
              • 10952

              #1581
              Pinny at 73.5 now! Holy Shit...I might have to add on to this one.
              Comment
              • Love The Action
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-08-10
                • 10952

                #1582
                If anyone is looking to middle this one, now would be the time. Pinny has 73.5 and I can't imagine it goes to 74. This is probably the best number your going to get. I would love it if it gets to 74 though.

                When you bet a total at 69 and it closes at 74, that's a highly profitable play over time. That is as sharp and +ev a bet as you can make. Let's hope that buyback on the under never happens. However, I think there will be some small buy back with this wide a divide between the 69 I got and 73.5 Covering that key number of 73 is key for sharp bettors. I expect a buyback soon.
                Comment
                • Love The Action
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-08-10
                  • 10952

                  #1583
                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                  If anyone is looking to middle this one, now would be the time. Pinny has 73.5 and I can't imagine it goes to 74. This is probably the best number your going to get. I would love it if it gets to 74 though.

                  When you bet a total at 69 and it closes at 74, that's a highly profitable play over time. That is as sharp and +ev a bet as you can make. Let's hope that buyback on the under never happens. However, I think there will be some small buy back with this wide a divide between the 69 I got and 73.5 Covering that key number of 73 is key for sharp bettors. I expect a buyback soon.
                  And there it is, just as I predicted. Pinny and 5d just went from 73.5 to back down to 72.5. The sharps did buyback at 73.5 just as I predicted.

                  For those of you using SBR odds, you should note that it is currently frozen and not reflecting the accurate line history for this game.

                  Here is the Pinny line history off of SI with the Pinny betting percentages. Note that as bets on the under increased, the line kept on moving upward. Another good sign for the over.

                  Current Line Type: Pinnacle
                  Time Over LineUnder Line Visitor Home 12/2/2011 5:36:56 PM
                  72.5o-108 72.5u-102 57% 43% 12/2/2011 5:36:30 PM
                  73.5o+102 73.5u-113 57% 43% 12/2/2011 5:36:16 PM
                  73.5o-102 73.5u-108 57% 43% 12/2/2011 5:18:25 PM
                  73.5o-105 73.5u-105 57% 43% 12/2/2011 5:06:28 PM

                  72.5o-105 72.5u-105 57% 43% 12/2/2011 4:57:37 PM
                  72.5o-104 72.5u-106 57% 43% 12/2/2011 4:43:38 PM
                  72.5o-106 72.5u-104 57% 43% 12/2/2011 4:04:10 PM
                  72.5o-101 72.5u-109 57% 43% 12/2/2011 3:24:53 PM
                  72.5o+100 72.5u-110 57% 43% 12/2/2011 1:34:41 PM
                  72.5o-103 72.5u-107 61% 39% 12/2/2011 1:34:32 PM
                  72.5o-102 72.5u-108 61% 39% 12/2/2011 1:31:30 PM
                  72.5o-105 72.5u-105 61% 39% 12/2/2011 1:30:53 PM
                  72.0o-110 72.0u+100 61% 39% 12/2/2011 1:06:06 PM
                  72.0o-105 72.0u-105 61% 39% 12/2/2011 8:12:38 AM
                  71.5o-105 71.5u-105 61% 39% 12/2/2011 6:10:04 AM
                  70.5o-113 70.5u+102 61% 39% 12/2/2011 3:37:25 AM
                  70.5o-116 70.5u+105 61% 39% 12/1/2011 11:00:47 PM
                  70.5o-113 70.5u+102 65% 35% 12/1/2011 7:00:49 PM
                  70.5o-109 70.5u-101 64% 36% 12/1/2011 10:17:38 AM
                  70.5o-105 70.5u-105 64% 36%
                  Comment
                  • ponyshowdown
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 12-07-10
                    • 317

                    #1584
                    i think the total is gonna swing downwards b4 kickoff...
                    Comment
                    • ponyshowdown
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 12-07-10
                      • 317

                      #1585
                      didnt see that post, guess it already began
                      Comment
                      • ultrasouth
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-23-10
                        • 1175

                        #1586
                        NSW TAB still has the line at 69.5
                        Comment
                        • Love The Action
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-08-10
                          • 10952

                          #1587
                          Originally posted by ultrasouth
                          NSW TAB still has the line at 69.5
                          Never heard of that book. Is that Australian? I tried to google it but couldn't get a feed.

                          All I can say is that if I could currently get 69.5, I would add another 4x on this play. Pinny currently remains at 72.5, anytime you can get a 3.5 point difference between your line and Pinny's line, that is a great moneymaking opportunity. Good luck.
                          Comment
                          • kts
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 02-15-10
                            • 195

                            #1588
                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                            Never heard of that book. Is that Australian? I tried to google it but couldn't get a feed.

                            All I can say is that if I could currently get 69.5, I would add another 4x on this play. Pinny currently remains at 72.5, anytime you can get a 3.5 point difference between your line and Pinny's line, that is a great moneymaking opportunity. Good luck.


                            should i pull the trigger at over 69.5?
                            Comment
                            • kts
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 02-15-10
                              • 195

                              #1589
                              it was set at 70.5 yesterday and for some reason it dropped to 69.5.
                              Comment
                              • MrXYZ
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-18-11
                                • 2342

                                #1590
                                I got 1x at 69.5 on Centrebet a couple of days ago. TAB is Australia's only licensed betting shop & have outlets everyhere. I went to my local for another 1x, juiced up to -143(1.70). Not long to go, good luck everyone!
                                Comment
                                • Dave88
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 06-09-11
                                  • 130

                                  #1591
                                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                                  Never heard of that book. Is that Australian? I tried to google it but couldn't get a feed.

                                  All I can say is that if I could currently get 69.5, I would add another 4x on this play. Pinny currently remains at 72.5, anytime you can get a 3.5 point difference between your line and Pinny's line, that is a great moneymaking opportunity. Good luck.
                                  I use this book LTA. Sometimes they move the line up or down, sometimes they adjust the odds and sometimes they do both. They offer really bad value most of the time compared to majority of books out there.
                                  In this case you can still take >69.5 for -143 odds.
                                  Comment
                                  • suicidekings
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 03-23-09
                                    • 9962

                                    #1592
                                    From the Greek:

                                    12/02 3:40pm NORILL-3 -115 OHIO+3 -105
                                    12/02 5:19pm NORILL-3 -115 OHIO+3 -105
                                    12/02 5:31pm NORILL-3 -105 OHIO+3 -115
                                    12/02 5:32pm NORILL-3.5 -105 OHIO+3.5 -115
                                    12/02 5:39pm NORILL-3.5 -105 OHIO+3.5 -115

                                    Line moves one way, juice moves the other... Kansas City Shuffle, for those that understand the reference.
                                    Comment
                                    • Love The Action
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 11-08-10
                                      • 10952

                                      #1593
                                      The eventual buyback hit just as I predicted and it's down to 71.5. I expect that is where it will close. We should end up beating the closer on this game by at least 2 - 2.5 points. Not bad. Now let's cash this play!
                                      Comment
                                      • joeyt
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 11-25-11
                                        • 12

                                        #1594
                                        i like ohio / under this 1
                                        Comment
                                        • gambler1270
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 02-02-11
                                          • 236

                                          #1595
                                          lta

                                          good luck lta!
                                          Comment
                                          • sportfan
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 12-22-09
                                            • 10111

                                            #1596
                                            I locked it in at 69.5 so its all good .Like NIU as well but dude at local book got it at -3.5 don't like the hook so layed off . Lets cash the over fellas
                                            Comment
                                            • tom1234
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 08-06-09
                                              • 325

                                              #1597
                                              LTA , THE o/u is dropping, any concern
                                              Comment
                                              • SlickRick1382
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-15-11
                                                • 3838

                                                #1598
                                                Looks like its close at 71. Wish I had seen the 73.5. I may have middle the bet a little and then bought back on the over if it drops anymore. Was taking a nap. That being said, since I missed out and this is your strongest play thusfar, I would be stupid not to ride it out.

                                                Lets get it LTA !!!!! Cheers bud.
                                                Comment
                                                • Dave88
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 06-09-11
                                                  • 130

                                                  #1599
                                                  GL everybody, Let's get this!!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Donnie Brasco
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 01-04-11
                                                    • 862

                                                    #1600
                                                    Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                    From the Greek:

                                                    12/02 3:40pm NORILL-3 -115 OHIO+3 -105
                                                    12/02 5:19pm NORILL-3 -115 OHIO+3 -105
                                                    12/02 5:31pm NORILL-3 -105 OHIO+3 -115
                                                    12/02 5:32pm NORILL-3.5 -105 OHIO+3.5 -115
                                                    12/02 5:39pm NORILL-3.5 -105 OHIO+3.5 -115

                                                    Line moves one way, juice moves the other... Kansas City Shuffle, for those that understand the reference.
                                                    Nice, "lucky # slevin" great movie!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • NowMillionaire
                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                      • 08-23-11
                                                      • 65

                                                      #1601
                                                      2 interceptions in 3 min, jesus !!!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • alamo
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 02-21-09
                                                        • 7131

                                                        #1602
                                                        Originally posted by NowMillionaire
                                                        2 interceptions in 3 min, jesus !!!
                                                        Relax bro. Ohio got picked in the red zone and NI gave it straight back to em and we got a FG so no damage done. Need you to b cool.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • alamo
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 02-21-09
                                                          • 7131

                                                          #1603
                                                          Guys just a heads up. Anyone who is playing this late or looking to add to the play can now get o64.5 with Paddy Power in running.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • ponyshowdown
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 12-07-10
                                                            • 317

                                                            #1604
                                                            lta, this was one of the rare times i didnt agree with u...took the under 73....still think ur picks are top grade. gl
                                                            Comment
                                                            • suicidekings
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 03-23-09
                                                              • 9962

                                                              #1605
                                                              Pinny offering 66.5, heavily juiced to the Under. They're in a tough spot here, with all the potential offense that has yet to materialize.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • georgekobe8
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 10-24-11
                                                                • 142

                                                                #1606
                                                                any pick on the u/o of the duck bruins game?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ponyshowdown
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 12-07-10
                                                                  • 317

                                                                  #1607
                                                                  o/u is at 58 now....bad pick, but it happens. look forward.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • GChild
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 12-11-10
                                                                    • 3885

                                                                    #1608
                                                                    Originally posted by ponyshowdown
                                                                    o/u is at 58 now....bad pick, but it happens. Look forward.
                                                                    stfu
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • ultrasouth
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-23-10
                                                                      • 1175

                                                                      #1609
                                                                      Originally posted by Dave88

                                                                      I use this book LTA. Sometimes they move the line up or down, sometimes they adjust the odds and sometimes they do both. They offer really bad value most of the time compared to majority of books out there.
                                                                      In this case you can still take >69.5 for -143 odds.


                                                                      Yeah u do get bad value but sometimes u get the line in your favour..

                                                                      looks like we are in trouble
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • cohbull
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 04-28-07
                                                                        • 536

                                                                        #1610
                                                                        This game is a turnover filled jokefest
                                                                        Comment
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