love Bama today. Roll Tide. BOL, LTA.
LTA's NCAAF Plays
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BiffTFinancialSBR Posting Legend
- 01-29-09
- 22670
#1436Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1437BTW, In the last 20 years the biggest spread in Iron bowl was 14.5... This is a huge game in the south, and it is also Auburn's bowl game as it is bigger than any bowl they will be invited to and Bama has bigger fish to fry. The books are inflating this line because they know public money will come in on Bama, for proof of that notice Hilton had this at 17 a week ago and the Gold Nugget opened it at 12.5 two weeks ago... Maybe I am wrong, but it seems like if your not taking points in this one you shouldnt be on it period. I tail you a lot. I respect your opinion more than my own on college ball. But, I am an SEC guy, Gator Grad, and I follow these southern teams alot.... And, I just figured the one time I could give you a pick I would, even though it is against yours.
However, the main reason your argument is flawed is that you ignore all quantitative factors and the players on the field. Alabama is clearly the superior team ranked top 3 on both offense and defense in the advanced stats where Auburn is in the 60's. I have this one set at 24 points based primarily on the stats and you can't deny Bama's superiority. Plus, with Auburn going with Moseley in what is essentially only his second or third start against one of the best and most athletic defenses in the modern era, I would never back Auburn in this spot. I think Alabama rolls today and we can agree to disagree on this one. Good luck on your plays bud.Comment -
GChildSBR MVP
- 12-11-10
- 3885
#1438Anything is possible and I am sure you know your SEC football, however, I find your argument flawed in that you using all qualitative factors as the base of your argument. The spread in previous Iron Bowl's does not matter in relation to today's game. When you say this is a "huge" game, you are correct. However, it's a huge game, but one that I could argue is MORE important to Bama. The Tide are the team on (1) revenge and (2) fighting for a National Championship. Auburn wants to win, but does not have the same motivational factors as Alabama.
However, the main reason your argument is flawed is that you ignore all quantitative factors and the players on the field. Alabama is clearly the superior team ranked top 3 on both offense and defense in the advanced stats where Auburn is in the 60's. I have this one set at 24 points based primarily on the stats and you can't deny Bama's superiority. Plus, with Auburn going with Moseley in what is essentially only his second or third start against one of the best and most athletic defenses in the modern era, I would never back Auburn in this spot. I think Alabama rolls today and we can agree to disagree on this one. Good luck on your plays bud.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1439This is primarily a value play. I have this one set at GT +3, but I'm getting +6.5. GT is playing at home where they have already won as outright dogs against a strong Clemson team. When it comes to the advanced stats, GT is close to or has better numbers than Georgia offensively and even though Georgia has the clearly better defense, I still think GT can keep this one close via its triple option offense. Watching the lines so I don't have time to get more in-depth, but this one is based primarily on value. Good luck.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1440Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1442Man, I've been waiting for the Texas Tech/Baylor total to fall and instead it keeps going up and I get burned. I want to play the over, but I missed the 79's and since it has gone up to 80 and 81. I don't think I can play it above 79 but we'll see. I really like that over. Those defenses are in trouble...Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1443BTW, I am very excited about the return of the NBA. Along with MLB, that is my primary money maker. Now I can get back to real work with my NBA model. Time to make that money.Comment -
SUPREMESBR High Roller
- 03-23-11
- 211
#1444Holy sh*t! Love the line movement on GTech. Now at +41/2Comment -
GChildSBR MVP
- 12-11-10
- 3885
#1445I got them at 7 when LTA released itComment -
OperatorXSBR MVP
- 01-21-09
- 1516
#1446Holy shit there is nba again!? I'm slow like a turtle today.Comment -
suicidekingsSBR Hall of Famer
- 03-23-09
- 9962
#1447
Too bad the games don't start until Christmas... Those Xmas games afforded such a huge betting opportunity when they were a month into the season, however i suspect the angles I normally used to approach them will be worthless this year because the players will have no games under their belts already... But damn it, I'm stoked for this. I missed Hoops so much.Comment -
SUPREMESBR High Roller
- 03-23-11
- 211
#144866 game season starting Christmas. The Bookie Gods owe us this from this incredibly sh*tty College and NFL season.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1449NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 13
Play #1
Miami (OH)/Ohio over (53) 1x (Locked) LOSS
Play #2
Georgia Tech (+6.5) 1x (Locked)
This is primarily a value play. I have this one set at GT +3, but I'm getting +6.5. GT is playing at home where they have already won as outright dogs against a strong Clemson team. When it comes to the advanced stats, GT is close to or has better numbers than Georgia offensively and even though Georgia has the clearly better defense, I still think GT can keep this one close via its triple option offense. Watching the lines so I don't have time to get more in-depth, but this one is based primarily on value. I am rolling with GT and the points for 1x. Good luck.
Play #3
Bowling Green (+3) 1x (Locked) WINNER
Play #4
Louisville/South Florida under (45) 1x (Locked) LOSS
Play #5
Kent State/Temple under (41) 1x (Locked) LOSS
Play #6
Houston/Tulsa under (78.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER
Play #7
Alabama (-21) 1x (Locked)
I don't really think the Auburn home field advantage is enough to keep this one within 21. The Tide is the clearly superior team in this particular Iron Bowl with a defense that might just rank up there with some of the best. The Bama defense has 8-10 players that will play on Sundays and I expect them to run roughshot over a still raw Moseley. Alabama clearly dominates Auburn on both sides of offense and defense in F/+, FEI and S&P+ where the Tide are ranked top 3 (1st in many categories) and Auburn is in the 60's. In addition, Bama is playing with revenge and with the need to win with "style" points to ensure itself a rematch with LSU in the National Championship. I think we see the Tide roll -- or is the that Roll tide -- and I am rolling with Alabama for 1x. Good luck.
Rutgers/Connecticut under (41) 1x (Locked)
I love the defenses in this game and don't have much respect for either offense. Both teams play great special teams and I am hoping we don't see any return td's because of solid kick coverage. As long as we can avoid special teams scores and fumble/pick 6's, I expect this game to stay under the posted total. Rutgers has one of the best defenses in the nation ranked top 10 in F/+, FEI and S%P+ advanced efficiency stats, while UConn is top 30-50. Neither offense is great and I expect an emphasis from both teams on the running game. UConn wants to run an uptempo spread offense, but it's inexperience at QB has forced a more conservative game plan this year. I expect both teams to go vanilla on offense and keep it simple by establishing the run. I have this game set at 37 and was waiting all week to cover the key number of 41 by getting 41.5. That number never materialized despite over 70% of all bets on the over. I will settle for 41 here and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
upscopeSBR MVP
- 04-26-11
- 2837
#1450Play #8
Rutgers/Connecticut under (41) 1x (Locked)
I love the defenses in this game and don't have much respect for either offense. Both teams play great special teams and I am hoping we don't see any return td's because of solid kick coverage. As long as we can avoid special teams scores and fumble/pick 6's, I expect this game to stay under the posted total. Rutgers has one of the best defenses in the nation ranked top 10 in F/+, FEI and S%P+ advanced efficiency stats, while UConn is top 30-50. Neither offense is great and I expect an emphasis from both teams on the running game. UConn wants to run an uptempo spread offense, but it's inexperience at QB has forced a more conservative game plan this year. I expect both teams to go vanilla on offense and keep it simple by establishing the run. I have this game set at 37 and was waiting all week to cover the key number of 41 by getting 41.5. That number never materialized despite over 70% of all bets on the over. I will settle for 41 here and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
mdfizzleSBR Sharp
- 10-19-10
- 392
#1451Good luckComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1452If you like and trust steam, you might want to think about the SMU/Rice over. Someone bought it down to 51 and starting 20 minutes before game time slammed it all the way up to 54....that's a syndicate move.Comment -
GChildSBR MVP
- 12-11-10
- 3885
-
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1454Damn...40 sucks. I see a lot of 40.5 right now and would probably recommend buying the hook in this case just to be able to cover 41. As I said, I have it set at 37. However, you have to respect the key number of 41 as it's one of the most important numbers in both NCAAF and NFL. Good luck on whatever you choose.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1456GT missed an easy touchdown on that opening trick pass. Stephen Hill was wide open and they threw it to the wrong guyComment -
GChildSBR MVP
- 12-11-10
- 3885
#1457Omg dint even see Rutgers underComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1458
Too bad the games don't start until Christmas... Those Xmas games afforded such a huge betting opportunity when they were a month into the season, however i suspect the angles I normally used to approach them will be worthless this year because the players will have no games under their belts already... But damn it, I'm stoked for this. I missed Hoops so much.
Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1459You're luck. First, Rutgers fumbled at their own 24 on their opening drive which led to a quick Ucon TD. Then, they throw a pick on the very next possession at their own 40 resulting in another quick TD. Unfuking real. That pisses me off....Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1460Wow...another Rutgers fumble returned for a touchdown. 3 Rutgers turnovers resulting in 21 points for UConn. Exactly what we said we needed to avoid to cash this play. Maybe its fixed
This game is just infuriating to watch.Comment -
hondo5SBR Sharp
- 11-01-09
- 402
#1461Gtech on the verge of falling apart. Looking like a rough day manComment -
hondo5SBR Sharp
- 11-01-09
- 402
#1462Nvm. Past the verge. Have fallen apart. Time to move on.Comment -
Moneyliner7SBR Sharp
- 09-24-09
- 310
#1464Lta.. Thanks for all of ur work... Im excited nba coming back.. How many units were you up last year?Ive never done well in nba so hoping i can tail you and make some cash!!Comment -
FanatikSBR Sharp
- 10-18-11
- 432
#1465Anything is possible and I am sure you know your SEC football, however, I find your argument flawed in that you using all qualitative factors as the base of your argument. The spread in previous Iron Bowl's does not matter in relation to today's game. When you say this is a "huge" game, you are correct. However, it's a huge game, but one that I could argue is MORE important to Bama. The Tide are the team on (1) revenge and (2) fighting for a National Championship. Auburn wants to win, but does not have the same motivational factors as Alabama.
However, the main reason your argument is flawed is that you ignore all quantitative factors and the players on the field. Alabama is clearly the superior team ranked top 3 on both offense and defense in the advanced stats where Auburn is in the 60's. I have this one set at 24 points based primarily on the stats and you can't deny Bama's superiority. Plus, with Auburn going with Moseley in what is essentially only his second or third start against one of the best and most athletic defenses in the modern era, I would never back Auburn in this spot. I think Alabama rolls today and we can agree to disagree on this one. Good luck on your plays bud.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1466NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 13
Play #1
Miami (OH)/Ohio over (53) 1x (Locked) LOSS
Play #2
Georgia Tech (+6.5) 1x (Locked)
This is primarily a value play. I have this one set at GT +3, but I'm getting +6.5. GT is playing at home where they have already won as outright dogs against a strong Clemson team. When it comes to the advanced stats, GT is close to or has better numbers than Georgia offensively and even though Georgia has the clearly better defense, I still think GT can keep this one close via its triple option offense. Watching the lines so I don't have time to get more in-depth, but this one is based primarily on value. I am rolling with GT and the points for 1x. Good luck.
Play #3
Bowling Green (+3) 1x (Locked) WINNER
Play #4
Louisville/South Florida under (45) 1x (Locked) LOSS
Play #5
Kent State/Temple under (41) 1x (Locked) LOSS
Play #6
Houston/Tulsa under (78.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER
Play #7
Alabama (-21) 2x (Locked)
I don't really think the Auburn home field advantage is enough to keep this one within 21. The Tide is the clearly superior team in this particular Iron Bowl with a defense that might just rank up there with some of the best. The Bama defense has 8-10 players that will play on Sundays and I expect them to run roughshot over a still raw Moseley. Alabama clearly dominates Auburn on both sides of offense and defense in F/+, FEI and S&P+ where the Tide are ranked top 3 (1st in many categories) and Auburn is in the 60's. In addition, Bama is playing with revenge and with the need to win with "style" points to ensure itself a rematch with LSU in the National Championship. I think we see the Tide roll -- or is the that Roll tide -- and I am rolling with Alabama for 2x. Good luck.
Play #8
Rutgers/Connecticut under (41) 1x (Locked)
I love the defenses in this game and don't have much respect for either offense. Both teams play great special teams and I am hoping we don't see any return td's because of solid kick coverage. As long as we can avoid special teams scores and fumble/pick 6's, I expect this game to stay under the posted total. Rutgers has one of the best defenses in the nation ranked top 10 in F/+, FEI and S%P+ advanced efficiency stats, while UConn is top 30-50. Neither offense is great and I expect an emphasis from both teams on the running game. UConn wants to run an uptempo spread offense, but it's inexperience at QB has forced a more conservative game plan this year. I expect both teams to go vanilla on offense and keep it simple by establishing the run. I have this game set at 37 and was waiting all week to cover the key number of 41 by getting 41.5. That number never materialized despite over 70% of all bets on the over. I will settle for 41 here and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.
I think we see this one close at -22 or higher. Good luck.Comment -
canepoleSBR Wise Guy
- 02-12-10
- 973
#1467Ala will rompComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1468NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 13
Play #1
Miami (OH)/Ohio over (53) 1x (Locked) LOSS
Play #2
Georgia Tech (+6.5) 1x (Locked)
This is primarily a value play. I have this one set at GT +3, but I'm getting +6.5. GT is playing at home where they have already won as outright dogs against a strong Clemson team. When it comes to the advanced stats, GT is close to or has better numbers than Georgia offensively and even though Georgia has the clearly better defense, I still think GT can keep this one close via its triple option offense. Watching the lines so I don't have time to get more in-depth, but this one is based primarily on value. I am rolling with GT and the points for 1x. Good luck.
Play #3
Bowling Green (+3) 1x (Locked) WINNER
Play #4
Louisville/South Florida under (45) 1x (Locked) LOSS
Play #5
Kent State/Temple under (41) 1x (Locked) LOSS
Play #6
Houston/Tulsa under (78.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER
Play #7
Alabama (-21) 3x (Locked)
I don't really think the Auburn home field advantage is enough to keep this one within 21. The Tide is the clearly superior team in this particular Iron Bowl with a defense that might just rank up there with some of the best. The Bama defense has 8-10 players that will play on Sundays and I expect them to run roughshot over a still raw Moseley. Alabama clearly dominates Auburn on both sides of offense and defense in F/+, FEI and S&P+ where the Tide are ranked top 3 (1st in many categories) and Auburn is in the 60's. In addition, Bama is playing with revenge and with the need to win with "style" points to ensure itself a rematch with LSU in the National Championship. I think we see the Tide roll -- or is the that Roll tide -- and I am rolling with Alabama for 2.5x. Good luck.
Play #8
Rutgers/Connecticut under (41) 1x (Locked)
I love the defenses in this game and don't have much respect for either offense. Both teams play great special teams and I am hoping we don't see any return td's because of solid kick coverage. As long as we can avoid special teams scores and fumble/pick 6's, I expect this game to stay under the posted total. Rutgers has one of the best defenses in the nation ranked top 10 in F/+, FEI and S%P+ advanced efficiency stats, while UConn is top 30-50. Neither offense is great and I expect an emphasis from both teams on the running game. UConn wants to run an uptempo spread offense, but it's inexperience at QB has forced a more conservative game plan this year. I expect both teams to go vanilla on offense and keep it simple by establishing the run. I have this game set at 37 and was waiting all week to cover the key number of 41 by getting 41.5. That number never materialized despite over 70% of all bets on the over. I will settle for 41 here and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.Last edited by Love The Action; 11-26-11, 03:33 PM.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1469I really wanted to play Vanderbilt, but I got scared off by today's line movement. Let's see if that was the right decision or not. I will really kick myself if Vandy ends up winning....Comment -
BigDanRestricted User
- 04-28-11
- 5104
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