LTA's NCAAF Plays

[upscope]

[Love The Action]

Thanks guys. Possible mulltiple unit play for me on the side in the WMU/Miami game, but I'm waiting for some line movement I expect to happen.

What does everyone else like tonight? Off to work.

Good luck tonight

[poloman]

Dear LTA, I hope everything is fine for you at work. In fact I wanted to thank you for everything you provide us. Great eye opening write-ups, consistency, and some passion for all the work you're puting in. I hope you hang around for a long time with us all in these forums. Best for you and you love ones.
Take care and good luck for today

[Donnie Brasco]

When i capped it i found the line pretty tight, think my model had miamo -2. The total has my interest tho. I had this one mid 50's. Hoping for a pub push on the over, maybe get under 61. With 90% on over, i like the play. No real opinion on the side. What u got brewing?[B]I am on ohio -6.5 1x[B]. I am sure u have looked at the advanced stats, but ohio has Bg way outclassed. Loving the line move on my okey st play! Locked at -24.5

[YouHave2outs]

let's get it today LTA.

[NowMillionaire]

Hi, i'm new here on this forum, and my first post goes to you LTA, i just wanna thank you for your work, I'm a big soccer bettor but since 2 weeks I follow your NCAAF thread, keep it up !




(Sorry if I make some mistakes, english is not my native langage)

[kts]

[GoggsViggs]

GL this week to LTA and crew.

[GChild]

You got a play tonight LTA?

[Donnie Brasco]

Looks like my kstate is picking up steam, down to 8.5!

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Ball State/NIU over (71) 3x (Locked)

I love this play from top to bottom and it's one of my bigger plays of the NCAAF season. I only have this one set at 73.5, but I think this one is primed for a shootout as evidenced by the opening number. Why is this game, against lowly Ball State at home, NIU's first game set in the 70's? Well, in addition to the public perception that is in love with NIU overs and are going to bet them regardless, I believe the answer is because this one will end up in the 80's or higher and the books know it. The reason I am so confident in this play has been the recent offensive play from both teams. Ball State has a sophmore quarterback in Wenning who has really come on of late and he sports the 43rd best qb rating in November. This tells me he has hit his stride and some the speed of the game has "clicked" for him. On the other side, we all know what Harnish and NIU are capable of on offense -- these guys are averaging over 40 points per game. Bottom line is that I expect NIU to explode for a minimum of 42 in this game, which is their first game at home after three straight road games. The last time the Huskies played in front of their home crowd, they laid the wood to Western Michigan 51-22 and I think we see another big scoring home performance on Tuesday. I'm jumping on this one now before it gets any higher. I expect a closing number hovering between 72.5 and 73. I am very confident in this play as Harnish will be pumped to put on a huge scoring display for his home crowd in his second to last game at home for his career. NIU hit its stride last year around this same part of the season last year and because the majority of players back, I would not be surprised to see one of those 60 point outbursts. I also expect Ball State to put 35 on the board tomorrow in what should be a classic MAC Tuesday night shootout. Except for Temple, Oklahoma and South Florida, all three of which have much better defenses than NIU, Ball State has hit in the high 20's to low 30's in all of their games. There is no doubt that this will be a "public" play, but that's the tradeoff for playing any over which are generally public plays from the beginning. Regardless, the public play is sometimes the right play and I think one of those times is Tuesday in Dekalb, IL. I am rolling with the over for 3x. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan (+2)(-120) 1x (Locked)

My apologies for posting this late but I was unable to post this earlier for a number of reasons. I believe WMU is now -1 and I would still play them at that number or up to -120 on the ML. Other than some defensive categories, WMU dominates Miami in every advanced statistical categories including special teams. In adiition, I think the qualitative factors also favor the broncos. I actually wanted to make this a 2x play, but I was unable to get +2 at -110 odds. Nevertheless, I like WMU to win this game and I'm rolling with the broncos for 1x. Good luck.

[Xstream]

LTA, Take a glance at Temple @ home vs Army , I think you will like how the numbers shake out. Not to mention Pierce' return to the back field and Army has QB Trent Steelman questionable and RB Raymond Maples questionable due to injuries last weekend.

Food for thought, BOL

[Trivial]

Play #2

Western Michigan (+2)(-120) 1x (Locked)

My apologies for posting this late but I was unable to post this earlier for a number of reasons. I believe WMU is now -1 and I would still play them at that number or up to -120 on the ML. Other than some defensive categories, WMU dominates Miami in every advanced statistical categories including special teams. In adiition, I think the qualitative factors also favor the broncos. I actually wanted to make this a 2x play, but I was unable to get +2 at -110 odds. Nevertheless, I like WMU to win this game and I'm rolling with the broncos for 1x. Good luck.

Thanks so much LTA. GL to you and all tonight as usual.

It is weird. When I look at www.sbrodds.com - It is showing as Miami being the fav and WMU as the + odds.

Is anyone else seeing the same thing on the site? It is clearly wrong. Thanks.

[Dexter]

Thanks so much LTA. GL to you and all tonight as usual.

It is weird. When I look at www.sbrodds.com - It is showing as Miami being the fav and WMU as the + odds.

Is anyone else seeing the same thing on the site? It is clearly wrong. Thanks.

my 2 locals have miami o as 1.5 and 2 pt favorites.

[bleedtoledo]

Its not wrong, the lines just flipped.

[Redscot]

Play #2

Western Michigan (+2)(-120) 1x (Locked)

My apologies for posting this late but I was unable to post this earlier for a number of reasons. I believe WMU is now -1 and I would still play them at that number or up to -120 on the ML. Other than some defensive categories, WMU dominates Miami in every advanced statistical categories including special teams. In adiition, I think the qualitative factors also favor the broncos. I actually wanted to make this a 2x play, but I was unable to get +2 at -110 odds. Nevertheless, I like WMU to win this game and I'm rolling with the broncos for 1x. Good luck.

Ouch, my local is me WM -1 1/2 here. That's a FG and a hook difference.........hmmmm...what to do...what to do. Knowing me, i will probably jump it anyway....regardless, good luck on the play bro .

[Trivial]

Its not wrong, the lines just flipped.

How do you mean?

[Trivial]

my 2 locals have miami o as 1.5 and 2 pt favorites.

Interesting. Thanks Dex. But the odds on sbr and on the actual sportsbook are not the same.

[bonestock]

Western Michigan jumped to -1.5 now. I got it at pk a couple of hours ago. Crazy movement.

[Love The Action]

Ouch, my local is me WM -1 1/2 here. That's a FG and a hook difference.........hmmmm...what to do...what to do. Knowing me, i will probably jump it anyway....regardless, good luck on the play bro .

Just got home from work...frustrating day to say the least.

I actually locked this play in around noon and tried to post at that time. Apparently, however, the wi-fi was out at our office and my post didn't go through. After that, I had a marathon meeting and didn't figure out that my post didn't go through until like 3 pm. Then I tried to post it again, only this time my phone froze halfway through the writeup and I had to start over. I didn't have time to repost it right away and it wasn't till about an hour ago that I was able to get the pick actually posted.

Anyway, I love WMU in this game. Although Miami has a decent pass attack, they are very inefficient on offense which is the exact opposite to WMU. I have this game set at -2 for WMU. Thefore, if you can get -1, that is decent value. I bought the hook up to +2 in order to cover that key number, but I would have no problem playing WMU at -1 or up to -120 on the ML if you can get either of those numbers. Even though I generally recommend against buying points, I think in your situation a buy to -1 would be worthwhile.

Good luck bud...let's cash this one

[Love The Action]

Interesting. Thanks Dex. But the odds on sbr and on the actual sportsbook are not the same.

I think SBR odds was frozen for most of the day with old numbers from yesterday. That is why that they did not show the move of WMU from +1.5 to -1.5. However, I believe that is fixed now because the odds they are currently showing seem to be accurate.

GL tonight Triv

[Love The Action]

LTA, Take a glance at Temple @ home vs Army , I think you will like how the numbers shake out. Not to mention Pierce' return to the back field and Army has QB Trent Steelman questionable and RB Raymond Maples questionable due to injuries last weekend.

Food for thought, BOL

I haven't had time to get to that game yet, but I will get to it at some point pursuant to my regular process. Thanks for the tip though, I will note your comments.

[Love The Action]

let's get it today LTA.

[Love The Action]

Hi, i'm new here on this forum, and my first post goes to you LTA, i just wanna thank you for your work, I'm a big soccer bettor but since 2 weeks I follow your NCAAF thread, keep it up !




(Sorry if I make some mistakes, english is not my native langage)

Welcome and good luck

[Love The Action]

[Love The Action]

GL this week to LTA and crew.

Same to you GV! Hope the fam is well

[Love The Action]

my 2 locals have miami o as 1.5 and 2 pt favorites.

Pound WMU!

Good luck tonight on your Ohio play

[Love The Action]

Looks like my kstate is picking up steam, down to 8.5!

Good luck

[Trivial]

I think SBR odds was frozen for most of the day with old numbers from yesterday. That is why that they did not show the move of WMU from +1.5 to -1.5. However, I believe that is fixed now because the odds they are currently showing seem to be accurate.

GL tonight Triv

Thanks LTA. Yup.. It shows up correctly now within the last 30 minutes or so. Thanks a bunch.

I managed to get ML for -119 at Pinnacle.

Good luck.

[Holdin Aces]

LTA, Take a glance at Temple @ home vs Army , I think you will like how the numbers shake out. Not to mention Pierce' return to the back field and Army has QB Trent Steelman questionable and RB Raymond Maples questionable due to injuries last weekend.

Food for thought, BOL

I already locked in Temple here. Good luck!!

[Overbettor]

Awesome play LTA

[Trivial]

Nicely done LTA. Enjoying your hot streak.

[peterrr]

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Ball State/NIU over (71) 3x (Locked) WINNER
I love this play from top to bottom and it's one of my bigger plays of the NCAAF season. I only have this one set at 73.5, but I think this one is primed for a shootout as evidenced by the opening number. Why is this game, against lowly Ball State at home, NIU's first game set in the 70's? Well, in addition to the public perception that is in love with NIU overs and are going to bet them regardless, I believe the answer is because this one will end up in the 80's or higher and the books know it. The reason I am so confident in this play has been the recent offensive play from both teams. Ball State has a sophmore quarterback in Wenning who has really come on of late and he sports the 43rd best qb rating in November. This tells me he has hit his stride and some the speed of the game has "clicked" for him. On the other side, we all know what Harnish and NIU are capable of on offense -- these guys are averaging over 40 points per game. Bottom line is that I expect NIU to explode for a minimum of 42 in this game, which is their first game at home after three straight road games. The last time the Huskies played in front of their home crowd, they laid the wood to Western Michigan 51-22 and I think we see another big scoring home performance on Tuesday. I'm jumping on this one now before it gets any higher. I expect a closing number hovering between 72.5 and 73. I am very confident in this play as Harnish will be pumped to put on a huge scoring display for his home crowd in his second to last game at home for his career. NIU hit its stride last year around this same part of the season last year and because the majority of players back, I would not be surprised to see one of those 60 point outbursts. I also expect Ball State to put 35 on the board tomorrow in what should be a classic MAC Tuesday night shootout. Except for Temple, Oklahoma and South Florida, all three of which have much better defenses than NIU, Ball State has hit in the high 20's to low 30's in all of their games. There is no doubt that this will be a "public" play, but that's the tradeoff for playing any over which are generally public plays from the beginning. Regardless, the public play is sometimes the right play and I think one of those times is Tuesday in Dekalb, IL. I am rolling with the over for 3x. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan (+2)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER

My apologies for posting this late but I was unable to post this earlier for a number of reasons. I believe WMU is now -1 and I would still play them at that number or up to -120 on the ML. Other than some defensive categories, WMU dominates Miami in every advanced statistical categories including special teams. In adiition, I think the qualitative factors also favor the broncos. I actually wanted to make this a 2x play, but I was unable to get +2 at -110 odds. Nevertheless, I like WMU to win this game and I'm rolling with the broncos for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Southern Mississippi (-23) 1x (Locked)

I'm not really a fan of playing huge public faves on the road, but I think it's definitely warranted in this case as both the quantitative factors and qualitative factors point to SoMiss in this one. SoMiss is top 25 overall in F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced stats whereas UAB is right at the bottom ten. Whether offense, defense or special teams, SoMiss has a sizable and significant advantage and they also lead in turnover ratio. In addition, I would also give the clear edge at QB to SoMiss where senior Austin Davis outclasses sophmore Jonathan Perry as evidenced by a QB rating top 45 in the nation compared to Perry's 93 ranking. Even though UAB has a solid field goal kicker, both teams have reliable kicking games. Nevertheless, the overall special teams rankings go to SoMiss where they are ranked top 45 in STE to UAB's rank in at 75. However, in addition to the quantitative stats which clearly point to SoMiss, I think there are quite a few motivational factors in support of SoMiss including clinching the Conf. USA East Division crown with a win and and a solid double revenge spot after losing two years in a roll to UAB. I would have liked to get -21, but it never really existed except at a few select books and was immediately bet up to 22.5 or 23 within an hour of open indicating early money on SoMiss. I have this game set at -27.5 in this game, so I love the value we are getting here. I am rolling with the SoMiss for 1x now and I might add to this play or tease SoMiss with another play I have in mind. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Ran with the play last night at -1 1/2 and also teased it for insurance with Donnie's under lean. DBL winner, nice call guys . Doing great work as always my man .