LTA's NCAAF Plays

[alamo]

I hate saying this but i think were fupped

[Love The Action]

So many fuking lost chances, missed field goals, penalties at the 5 yard line, poor play calling by UCLA.. I am going to ******* throw up. So pissed right now. Sorry, but I gotta vent. This is unreal. Fuking bad beats all last Saturday and now I have to relive it again. Fuking groundhog day.

[hardball]

I seriously can't believe this. The baby and wife are sleeping, but I just want to fuking scream right now.

Was on the same side.....This...was...a Brutal fuking loss.....

[Love The Action]

First the fuking cardinals blow it in the ninth inning and now this...seriously. WTF

[tokio]

That personal foul by that dumbfuk OL cost the over. Fuk UCLA.

[alamo]

Tough to take but at least we have a nice looking card for the weekend - Good night everyone

[BennyFang]

I swear this is at least the third time this has happened to me this season. Very first week of the season, OSU/Toledo over 51, 49 at the end of 3, no score in the 4th. I can go on.....I play a lot of overs in college football so I guess this is just part of it....lot of negative variance this season so far. I got screwed on the South Carolina safety last week.

Anyway....I feel your pain.

[luckythansmart]

Ucla didn't want to score TD. QB taking sacks, over throw receivers, and how many 15 yd penalties did the ucla players commit in the last two drives when they were at the 5 yd line just when they were about to score. It was fix for the under by UCLA players.

[Love The Action]

Ucla didn't want to score TD. QB taking sacks, over throw receivers, and how many 15 yd penalties did the ucla players commit in the last two drives when they were at the 5 yd line just when they were about to score. It was fix for the under by UCLA players.

Well that sort of talk is silly, but it was definitely one of the worst beats I've had. This last week has just been unreal with these horrible beats....they better start evening out quick.

[Trivial]

Well that sort of talk is silly, but it was definitely one of the worst beats I've had. This last week has just been unreal with these horrible beats....they better start evening out quick.

I hear you LTA. These streaks ultimately happen to us all. They do even out, but I agree, the quicker the better. Looking forward to your analysis for the games tonight.

[Love The Action]

Alright...new day....time to put yesterdays horrible beat behind us....as long as I am not too busy at work today, I will be locking in quite a few plays for saturday. Good luck.

[Donnie Brasco]

Hey brother, looks like movement to the under on miami total. 61.5 available. Cause for concern or great line?

[Love The Action]

Hey brother, looks like movement to the under on miami total. 61.5 available. Cause for concern or great line?

Half point moves in football mean nothing...especially on a total. That's just back and forth money. As long as this one doesnt close below 61, I'm not worried. I actually expected under money, but I didnt want to wait and risk a worse number.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7

Play #1

FIU (+3)(+100) 1x (Locked)

FIU is the better statistical team that is fighting for its conference life in this game. I have read numerous articles which state that FIU's head coach Cristobal and the team is treating this game as a must win because a loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play. This is solid motivation for a statistically superior team. Everyone will point out that ArkSt passes for more yards per game than FIU and that is true. However, that is an irrelevant stat because it does not filter out meaningless plays in blowout situations or against inferior competition. That is why I prefer and base my model around advanced efficiency stats. If you look at FEI, S&P+ and F/+ scores, FIU has superior numbers across the board and almost identical numbers in passing efficiency. Moreover, Carroll has the better qb rating over Aplin by ten points. Because FIU is the better rushing team both offensively and defensively and because they are comparable in the passing game with a comparable pass defense, I have FIU set as a +1 road dog. I like the situational angles pointing toward FIU as well. When you factor in FIU's superior Massey and Sagarin ratings, I have to roll with FIU for 1x getting the 3 points at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Georgia Tech/Miami over (62) 2.5x (Locked)

This is my highest rated play of the season so far. I have this one set at a whopping 67 points, 5 points variance between my line and the posted number. There is a just a huge disparity in favor of the offense for both teams, while their defenses have struggled. After the Hurricane suspensions were over, Miami started playing very well on offense. They have now worked themselves up the ladder and actually are set as the number one team in the country in total offense FEI stats which are made up of various advanced efficiency criteria. Under the FEI umbrella you can look at such criteria as EX which measures plays over 10 yards, for which Miami is ranked 18th in the country; VD which measure the percentage of time they get at least to the opponent's 30 yard line and are ranked 33rd; OE or unadjusted raw efficiency not taking into opponent info which puts Miami at 28the overall; FD rate or the percentage of drives resulting in a first down/TD in which Miami ranks 20th and OSOS which measures the predicted efficiency against upcoming opponents putting Miami at 1st in the country in yet another stat. On the other side you have the formidable Georgia Tech offense who is ranked 17th in OFEI, 6th in OE, 8th in FD, 11th in AY, 14th in EX but only 64th in OSOS. Both teams are also in the upper echelon of S&P+ offensive efficiency rankings with GT at 14th in both passing and rushing and Miami ranked 12th and 26th respectively. Both of these superior and explosive offenses will be facing off against two of the weaker ACC defenses. Miami is at the bottom of defensive efficiency FEI and S&P+ stats while GT is middle of the road. While GT does play the pass better than the run, I think Miami's home field will be a huge advantage for them as the game progresses. GT on the other hand will be ready to roll after two subpar offensive performances in back to back weeks, especially after losing to Virginia. It will be peddle to the meddle all game against these weak D's. Plus, GT knows that they will need to start demolishing people and put up big scores to counteract the negative effects of last week's loss. I expect to see this one fly over the posted total, right into the 70's, so I'm taking the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

UCLA/Arizona over (61.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like UCLA +5.5 and am considering a teaser with UCLA and over. However, I really like the over. All overs are public plays and could be called "square" plays for the most part. However, just like I'm a big under player in NBA and MLB, I'm a big over player in NCAAF and NFL (although I also play my fair share of unders in football as well). However, in this game, you have a pretty simple concept of solid offenses going against shit defenses. The advanced stats tell the story in this one. Whether you want to look at S&P+ efficiency or FEI efficiency stats, they all have UCLA and Arizona in the upper echelon of offense and lower echelon of defense. UCLA is a great running team with Franklin leading the way, going against a team in Arizona who has had a great deal of difficulty stopping the run. Even in last year's matchup, Franklin ran all over this Arizona team (I remember because I had a big play on Arizona last year). In addition, just because Breuhout is out for UCLA, I actually like Prince as his replacement because of his added mobility. I really expect UCLA to add some additional running play wrinkles using Prince in the spread offense read option. With the threat of Franklin, this will cause problems for Arizona and lead to some big plays. On the other side, UCLA defense is just as porous and I expect Foles to play well with those athletic wideouts with or without Criner (who I have a feeling will play). This game opened at 61.5 or 62 depending on where you look and has not moved that much. However, the split of action on the total is just about dead even at this point so there really shouldn't have been much movement before now. However, I expect late money to come in hard on the over based on the number. If they had opened this game in the 50's, I would wonder why it was set so low. I have this game at 64, and I think we have a great shot at cashing because of the weakness of the defenses in relation to the strength of the offense. Getting 61.5 is so important because we cover on a final score of the key totals numbers of 63 and 64. I expect big plays and a final score with both teams in the 30's. I have this one with Arizona set at -3, so a play on UCLA with a superior running game may also be warranted. However, I feel stronger about the over and I'm going to roll that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

OKST/Missouri over (69) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Tulsa/Rice over (58) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups today. Good luck.

[Trivial]

Thanks LTA. Will you have any plays for tonights games?

[Love The Action]

Thanks LTA. Will you have any plays for tonights games?

I dont know yet, but will post whenever I lock something in like always. Good lucl Triv.

[Trivial]

I dont know yet, but will post whenever I lock something in like always. Good lucl Triv.

Thanks LTA. I start to get crazy when I don't do something each night. I think I may look at hockey. LOL.

Best of luck to you as well.

[Dexter]

shake it off buddy...

[shocktopme]

.

Hey friend....you got any takes for O/U,s for tonights games?thanx pal

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7

Play #1

FIU (+3)(+100) 1x (Locked)

FIU is the better statistical team that is fighting for its conference life in this game. I have read numerous articles which state that FIU's head coach Cristobal and the team is treating this game as a must win because a loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play. This is solid motivation for a statistically superior team. Everyone will point out that ArkSt passes for more yards per game than FIU and that is true. However, that is an irrelevant stat because it does not filter out meaningless plays in blowout situations or against inferior competition. That is why I prefer and base my model around advanced efficiency stats. If you look at FEI, S&P+ and F/+ scores, FIU has superior numbers across the board and almost identical numbers in passing efficiency. Moreover, Carroll has the better qb rating over Aplin by ten points. Because FIU is the better rushing team both offensively and defensively and because they are comparable in the passing game with a comparable pass defense, I have FIU set as a +1 road dog. I like the situational angles pointing toward FIU as well. When you factor in FIU's superior Massey and Sagarin ratings, I have to roll with FIU for 1x getting the 3 points at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Georgia Tech/Miami over (62) 2.5x (Locked)

This is my highest rated play of the season so far. I have this one set at a whopping 67 points, 5 points variance between my line and the posted number. There is a just a huge disparity in favor of the offense for both teams, while their defenses have struggled. After the Hurricane suspensions were over, Miami started playing very well on offense. They have now worked themselves up the ladder and actually are set as the number one team in the country in total offense FEI stats which are made up of various advanced efficiency criteria. Under the FEI umbrella you can look at such criteria as EX which measures plays over 10 yards, for which Miami is ranked 18th in the country; VD which measure the percentage of time they get at least to the opponent's 30 yard line and are ranked 33rd; OE or unadjusted raw efficiency not taking into opponent info which puts Miami at 28the overall; FD rate or the percentage of drives resulting in a first down/TD in which Miami ranks 20th and OSOS which measures the predicted efficiency against upcoming opponents putting Miami at 1st in the country in yet another stat. On the other side you have the formidable Georgia Tech offense who is ranked 17th in OFEI, 6th in OE, 8th in FD, 11th in AY, 14th in EX but only 64th in OSOS. Both teams are also in the upper echelon of S&P+ offensive efficiency rankings with GT at 14th in both passing and rushing and Miami ranked 12th and 26th respectively. Both of these superior and explosive offenses will be facing off against two of the weaker ACC defenses. Miami is at the bottom of defensive efficiency FEI and S&P+ stats while GT is middle of the road. While GT does play the pass better than the run, I think Miami's home field will be a huge advantage for them as the game progresses. GT on the other hand will be ready to roll after two subpar offensive performances in back to back weeks, especially after losing to Virginia. It will be peddle to the meddle all game against these weak D's. Plus, GT knows that they will need to start demolishing people and put up big scores to counteract the negative effects of last week's loss. I expect to see this one fly over the posted total, right into the 70's, so I'm taking the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

UCLA/Arizona over (61.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like UCLA +5.5 and am considering a teaser with UCLA and over. However, I really like the over. All overs are public plays and could be called "square" plays for the most part. However, just like I'm a big under player in NBA and MLB, I'm a big over player in NCAAF and NFL (although I also play my fair share of unders in football as well). However, in this game, you have a pretty simple concept of solid offenses going against shit defenses. The advanced stats tell the story in this one. Whether you want to look at S&P+ efficiency or FEI efficiency stats, they all have UCLA and Arizona in the upper echelon of offense and lower echelon of defense. UCLA is a great running team with Franklin leading the way, going against a team in Arizona who has had a great deal of difficulty stopping the run. Even in last year's matchup, Franklin ran all over this Arizona team (I remember because I had a big play on Arizona last year). In addition, just because Breuhout is out for UCLA, I actually like Prince as his replacement because of his added mobility. I really expect UCLA to add some additional running play wrinkles using Prince in the spread offense read option. With the threat of Franklin, this will cause problems for Arizona and lead to some big plays. On the other side, UCLA defense is just as porous and I expect Foles to play well with those athletic wideouts with or without Criner (who I have a feeling will play). This game opened at 61.5 or 62 depending on where you look and has not moved that much. However, the split of action on the total is just about dead even at this point so there really shouldn't have been much movement before now. However, I expect late money to come in hard on the over based on the number. If they had opened this game in the 50's, I would wonder why it was set so low. I have this game at 64, and I think we have a great shot at cashing because of the weakness of the defenses in relation to the strength of the offense. Getting 61.5 is so important because we cover on a final score of the key totals numbers of 63 and 64. I expect big plays and a final score with both teams in the 30's. I have this one with Arizona set at -3, so a play on UCLA with a superior running game may also be warranted. However, I feel stronger about the over and I'm going to roll that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

OKST/Missouri over (69) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Tulsa/Rice over (58) 1x (Locked)

Play #6

Rutgers/Louisiville under (41) 2x (Locked)

I love this play and wanted to go bigger, but the small margin for error held me back. I have this game set at 37 so we getting 4 points of value on this once it hit 41 earlier today. I debated whether to wait for another half point of value, but I'm not convinced we get it and I couldnt take this for 2x at any number less than 41 because of that numbers importance as a key totals number. There is a reason this is the lowest total on the board and the under got hit right upon opening. You have two solid defenses, two poor offenses that like to eat up the clock and two freshman quarterbacks. Rutgers defense is actually one of the better defenses in the country and is ranked 2nd overall in DFEI which is an opponent adjusted efficiency stat which gives a great idea of this teams defensive mindset and abilities. One of my concerns is that rutgers is so good at takeaways that they might score on defense. However, I will take that chance. All together, Rutgers ranks 13th & 22nd in rushing and passing Def S&P+. On the other side, Louisville is no defensive slouch either with a 44 DFEI ranking and 51st Def S&P+ rank. The offenses are very poor ranked at the bottom of OFEI & Off S&P+ stats. Interestingly, however, rutgers ranks 4th in the country in time of possession while the cardinals are 33rd. That tells me that both offenses will employ conservative game plans to protect their freshman qb's and to avoid turnovers. This game will be about defense, clock management and game management in that both coaches will not ask too much out of their young qb's and call a conservative game plan. The bets are coming in very heavy on the over because of the small number, but we know better because even the kickers in this game might have trouble with rutgers ranked 66th in fg% while Louisville is at 88th. As long as we are not the victim of a special teams td or defensive td, I just dont see this one breaking 31 based on the strength of these defenses and offensive conservatism. Once this one hit the vitally importent key number of 41, I had to get on this one rather big. I expect a low scoring game and I'm rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

[YOUNGBUCK]

Was just lookin at Rutgers under LTA love the play bol

[Trivial]

LTA: Rutgers is 2x or 1x? You say 2x in your title and 1x in your write up.

Thanks.

[Redscot]

On that under as well but teased it with Rutgers, GL

Good to see you in the neighborhood Buck, You and Sonny two of the hidden
gems of SBR

[bleedtoledo]

Hmmm I've got Rutgers at 41.5 now & Miami at 61.5...

[Love The Action]

Was just lookin at Rutgers under LTA love the play bol

Good luck

[Love The Action]

LTA: Rutgers is 2x or 1x? You say 2x in your title and 1x in your write up.

Thanks.

Fixed it...2x Triv! Lets get it

[YOUNGBUCK]

On that under as well but teased it with Rutgers, GL

Good to see you in the neighborhood Buck, You and Sonny two of the hidden
gems of SBR

Thx Red stop in more often always love to hear input I visit LTA's thread once in a while one of the few guys who I would tail if needed always great info from this thread no bull... Not to mention I think me an LTA have been on the same side and total for ab 90% of mlb playoffs so I know hes got skills keep gettin the
Bread boys

[Love The Action]

On that under as well but teased it with Rutgers, GL

Good to see you in the neighborhood Buck, You and Sonny two of the hidden
gems of SBR

Good luck Red....i need this one. I actually like WVU as well tonight...may have two plays, but wvu would only be a normal play.

[Love The Action]

Hmmm I've got Rutgers at 41.5 now & Miami at 61.5...

As I stated above, half point moves in football are common and inconsequential. To me, that is just more value. Lets see where they close. Good luck tonight!

[Love The Action]

Thx Red stop in more often always love to hear input I visit LTA's thread once in a while one of the few guys who I would tail if needed always great info from this thread no bull... Not to mention I think me an LTA have been on the same side and total for ab 90% of mlb playoffs so I know hes got skills keep gettin the
Bread boys

Nice to hear Buck. I want to check out the thread Red references that you have with Sonny....havent seen it before but sounds like you guys know your stuff if Red vouches for you. Can someone post a link or the thread title....there is so much junk on here that its hard sometimes to find the worthwhile threads. Thanks and good luck on all your plays

[YOUNGBUCK]

Its 1st & Goal in nfl section we post all our plays for any sport in there come through LTA would love input on our picks every now an then

[Love The Action]

Its 1st & Goal in nfl section we post all our plays for any sport in there come through LTA would love input on our picks every now an then

Awesome...will do....thanks

[abejr]

Good luck LTA, get e'm this weekend

[Donnie Brasco]

Insane movement on rutgers, back to -1. I got on rutgers +2, i guess i beat pinny but who knows with the history on this one. Love that u, dex and the slimes lime rutgers under! On it! Love louisiana lafayette tomorrow. New coach has these kids tightened up this year! Check out the game and let me know what u think. Also looking for input on the irish if i have time. Like usc but the line move is against me!

[Love The Action]

Good luck LTA, get e'm this weekend

Good luck Abe!