"...the rest of the games..."Week 7 / Weekday Games
"....the rest of the games...."
These are the games outside of the Top 25 teams at the site I use.
Nothing applies to these games as does the Top 25, the "noise" (DOG Consensus,higher lower ranked, etc.) doesn't matter. These System Picks are strickly Play Against picks.
I did today's games to see if the play against the trend will continue. If it does, I'll add more games as time permits.
SYSTEM PICK / PLAY ON TEAM
LaTech+3......Mid Tenn St -3
Liberty -6'.....Jax St +6'
App St-5.......Co Car +5
I also got good results tracking the O/U in games where the two team had a DDigit Pass Defense rating(not RANKING). Double-digit ratings means the Pass Defense is not good.
The LaTech/MTSt game has a better chance of going OVER the total because their ratings are bad. Both QB's have really low QBR's, but with your opponent being bad against the pass, even "bad" QB's can look like Tom Brady..lol.
Anyways, small sample size as I just started tracking, but that's the idea of why I play the OVER.
WW Mid Tenn St-3 Final 31-23 LL Jax St+6' Final 13-31 WW Co Car +5 Final 27-24 ML DOG winner
Two out of three, let's do more games.... Of the three games, if you checked the QBR ratings on ESPN, Liberty's QB Salter had the highest QBR ranking. The difference between Salter and Smother was the widest margin too ( 33/111). It's no wonder why Liberty won the game ( my System is based on the QB..."if you don't have a QB, you don't have an Offense, if you don't have an Offense, you cannot score points, if you cannot score points, you cannot win games").
(*WOW! I just found another tool for my toolbox! I am noting/using the Liberty game as an example to myself.)
My daughter always tells me to think/look outside the box, so I did.
I just looked over the ratings while writing this post and I checked the OFFENSIVE Pass Ratings, something I will start to check and note, because it clearly showed the potential winner in the Liberty/Jax St game.
Compare Offensive Pass Ratings/QBR Rank/ Pass Defense Rank
Liberty #10 / 33 / 50
Jax St #128 /111 / 82
After seeing this comparison, why would you want to put your hard earned money on Jax St? I know there's always the chance of the Upset, but if I were to bet the game, I would take the more solid team, statwise on paper.
You can argue the point that points can be scored by the Defense and Special teams. Well, this System does take into consideration the Defense and Special teams points scored. For me, it's TURNOVERS points and better defenses will cause those Turnovers. That's why I chose to use the Defense Ratings and not the Offense Ratings.
Defense wins Championships? You decide.
Comparing the Top 25 list to the bottom 25 list, there's only three teams in the T25 with a POSITVE= (BAD) DDigit Pass Defense Rating, Wisconsin, Louisville and the worse, LSU. At the other end, with the exception of Eastern Michigan, they all have POSITIVE DDigits. Penn St and Duke ranks one and two with NEGATIVE =(GOOD) DDigit Pass Defense Ratings. ===== LaTech/MTSt O54' Total: 54 (close but no cigar...Loss) Liberty/Jax St O59 Total:44 Loss I'll still track games with the double-digit Pass Defense Ratings. As mentioned above in original post, LaTech/MTSt game had the better chance of going over the total because their Pass Defense Rating was worse than the other games, but came up short by one point ....close only counts in horseshoes.....
Be back later with Wednesday's games.
Last edited by Aunty808; 10-11-23 at 07:16 AM.
Reason: correct grammar.
Using my added tool I discovered last night, here are the picks for today and tomorrow. I'll do Friday's games after I post this, as today's games start in a couple of hours.
I also added one more tweak that makes the final pick a stronger pick.
Utep@ FIU-3 Fading Utep/ Pick: FIU-3
Sam Hou@NMST-3' Fading Sam Hou/ Pick: NMST-3' If the difference between the two teams in the Offensive and QBR is greater than 50, the fade becomes a stronger pick.
Thursday W Virg-3 @Hou Fading WVirg / Pick: Hou +3
SMU-12' @ ECar SMU is in the same boat as Liberty. NO FADE. PLAY ON SMU-12'.
For comparison, see Liberty/Jax ST game above. TEAM/OFF R/ QBR R/ DEF R SMU #42/ #56/ #59 ECar #131/ #132/ #90
Hoping for good results. Be back with the rest later. I still need to post the Top 25 and haven't even looked at the NFL yet. I was trying to keep things simple, but, doing this System is anything but....too many numbers staring at me.......
Just a note:
I was reading on another board and saw a capper picking FIU+2.
When I did the games, covers contest had the line at FIU-2' and when I entered FIU-3.
I checked the pregame center opening lines and FIU was a DOG
Had I caught that, FIU would've been a FADE play, falling into the catagory of ".....football underdogs that become betting favorites often lose".
Note: I didn't catch FIU opening as DOG, then flipped to favorite. If you come across that situation, PLAY AGAINST any team that was an underdog, then becomes a favorite. An article I read said those teams usually lose.
So far, the picks that had a 50+ difference in the Offensive Rank and the QBR Rank is 2-0 ATS.
Friday's games
Tulane-4' @ Memphis
System Pick: Memphis/ FADE
Play on Tulane-4'
Fresno-4' @ Utah St
System Pick: Fresno/ FADE
Play on Utah St+4'
Stanford @ Col-11
System Pick: Col-11
Col is a 50+ Difference game. NO FADE. PLAY ON COL-11
Both teams with a DDigit Pass Defense Rating- PLAY OVER 60
------------
I did the 14 Undefeated teams for fun to see who the System picked as the potential winners this week.
Michigan, Florida State, Georgia, Penn State, Ohio State, Washington, Air Force and James Madison made the System Picks win list. Louisville and North Carolina also made the win list, but has a high Consensus % on them, putting them on the possible Upset list.
USC is a 2' point DOG consensus PLAY AGAINST/PLAY ON ND-2'. Oklahoma has a BYE. Liberty played on Tuesday and won.
I usually just do the numbers, find the picks, find the results/scores and then move on to the next games.
Having had extra time, I thought I would take a look at the final scores to see if there was any other trends coming out of this system, and what do you know.....I found a trend that predicted the possible O/U in each game.
O/U Trend based on Pass Defense Rating/Ranking
Mind you, small sample size as I just looked over the games starting on Tuesday, October 10th.
I'm trying to go through all of the Saturday games to find the games that qualify and will post them when I get done.
Tulane is playing now, and that game is an U54'.
Colorado's game is an O60.
Games that fit this trend were
**Liberty/Jax ST U59' Final 31-13 (44) W
**SHou/NMST U42' Final 13-27 (40) W
**SMU/ECar U49' Final 31-10 (41) W
(**These are the 50+ in the QBR and OFF R catagories. Going foward I will refer to these games as the LIBERTY/50+ GAMES, since the trend started with that game.)
Other games that fit the trend were
CCar @ App St U58' Final 27-24 (51) W
Utep @ FIU U42' Final 27-14 (41) W
WVirg @ Hou U49' Final 39-41 (80) L
I won't be adding more games today. I'll come back and update this threads picks later.
As a matter of fact, I don't think I'll be doing any more weekly threads. It takes alot of my time typing up these posts, and to tell you the truth, getting absolutely no feedback, positive or negative, makes me feel like all this typing is all for nothing.
I think the problem, if you want to call it that, is, this is a GAMBLING forum and my contest picks, with no real money involved, doesn't belong here.
ADMIN: Thank you for providing a space here for me to share my handicapping experiment, I really appreciate it. This is one of the better forums that I frequent.....there's so many posters on other boards that do nothing but complain or are just looking for attention that finding valuable info is a challenge. Mahalo Nui Loa (Thank you very much) for the hospitality!
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"...the rest of the games..."Week 7 / Weekday Games
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