Vaughany's MMA Picks...

lasker · 02-06-11, 02:51 AM

Wow.... amazing night for us Vaugh! Which two books got you that incredible arb on the Rocha/Ellenberger fight? Congrats!

Vaughany · 02-06-11, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by lasker

Wow.... amazing night for us Vaugh! Which two books got you that incredible arb on the Rocha/Ellenberger fight? Congrats!

Yeah big time

Ladbrokes.com had not go distance at -250 and Stan James had it to go distance at +333 and as I hardly ever use those two sites I still have decent max bet limits on each of them.

Eccocide · 02-06-11, 10:20 AM

Nice Vaugh. You are making a killing with those arbs! I think you should keep 2 records, one of arbs and one of everything else lol.

Vaughany · 02-06-11, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by Eccocide

Nice Vaugh. You are making a killing with those arbs! I think you should keep 2 records, one of arbs and one of everything else lol.

Ha Cheers my man, yeah I think I may start doing something like that after 127!

Eccocide · 02-06-11, 10:26 AM

I need you to hook me up with a middle man so that I can take advantage of these euro books haha. I feel like I'm missing out on a gold mine! I never really checked if Canadians can sign up for these books. I need to do some research!

Vaughany · 02-06-11, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by Eccocide

I need you to hook me up with a middle man so that I can take advantage of these euro books haha. I feel like I'm missing out on a gold mine! I never really checked if Canadians can sign up for these books. I need to do some research!

Unfortunately I know that Canada comes under restricted territories on Paddypower. But Canada isnt listed on Ladbrokes.com which is probably the second best Euro site. I guess all u need is a moneybookers account then can just transfer money across.

snake11eyes · 02-06-11, 10:40 AM

Nice job last night v.

xelance · 02-06-11, 11:09 AM

impressive job!Keep it going...I will definitely be tailing you!

ufcmma36 · 02-06-11, 11:38 AM

great job bro! That front flip kick, looked like it hit Belfort in the neck.... Silva is a machine!

Vaughany · 02-06-11, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by snake11eyes

Nice job last night v.

Originally posted by xelance

impressive job!Keep it going...I will definitely be tailing you!

Originally posted by ufcmma36

great job bro! That front flip kick, looked like it hit Belfort in the neck.... Silva is a machine!

Vaughany · 02-06-11, 12:42 PM

UFC 127 Plays so far:

5.55 units on Noke at +125 to win 6.944 units (plus stake);

1.562 units on Condit/Lytle going the distance at +100 to win 1.562 units (plus stake);

1.729 units on Bisping/Rivera going the distance at +150 to win 2.593 units (plus stake);

2.593 units on Bisping/Rivera not going the distance at +100 to win 2.593 units (plus stake);

1.311 units on Sotiropolous/Siver to go the distance at +160 to win 2.098 units (plus stake);

1.575 units on Sotiropolous/Siver not going the distance at -120 to win 1.312 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 0.106 units on McKenzie/Edwards Over 1.5 rounds, Barry/Beltran goes the distance, & Sotiropolous to win 0.886 units (plus stake).

Wont be a very risky event for me, mostly just risk free arbs, but will be looking to make reasonably big plays on Sotiropolous Submission of the Night and of course Fitch by decision. Also like Pearson to beat Fisher by decision.

The 3 events in March are the ones I'm looking forward to the most and have great potential to make some dough. I'll be looking to make the following plays:

UFC Live Sanchez vs Kampmann:

Sanchez/Kampmann to decision;

Munoz/Dolloway to decision;

Dongi Yi Yang to beat Kimmons;

Palhares to beat Branch.

UFC 128:

Bones Jones to win hedged with Shogun KO of the Night;

Faber/Wineland to decision hedged with Faber Submission of the Night;

Schaub to beat Cro-Cop (possibly by decision prop);

J.Miller and Marquadt double and Miller Submisson of the Night;

Vemola to beat Cane;

Tibau/Pellegrino to decision;

Almeida/Pyle to decision;

Assuncao to beat Gamburyan (if underdog).

UFC Fight Night 24:

Sadollah to beat Ludwig;

Morecraft to beat McCorkle;

Semerzier to beat Bruce Leeroy;

Hathaway to beat McCray;

Simpson/Miranda to decison;

Tito/Nog to decision;

Garcia/Phan to decision.

Vaughany · 02-06-11, 01:34 PM

UFC 128 Play:

5 units on Jon Jones at -160 to win 3.125 units (plus stake).

brooks85 · 02-06-11, 01:38 PM

hey what awesome site gave you noke +125?

urge2kill · 02-06-11, 01:39 PM

Didn't expect Jones to come out that big of a favorite.

urge2kill · 02-06-11, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by brooks85

hey what awesome site gave you noke +125?

I'm getting quite jealous of his Euro books.

Eccocide · 02-06-11, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by urge2kill

Didn't expect Jones to come out that big of a favorite.

It only makes sense from a bookmakers perspective. You put the odds out on Jones as a fav right after he has a massive win. Then they eat up all that juice. You put him out as a dog or as EV the day after the hype continues to build and you get all one sided action.

brooks85 · 02-06-11, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by urge2kill

I'm getting quite jealous of his Euro books.

ya ive been getting more and more tempted to see what it takes to establish a residency in canada, im only a 5 hours away. I want pinnacle more than anything with those mma limits.

Vaughany · 02-06-11, 01:46 PM

Originally posted by brooks85

hey what awesome site gave you noke +125?

Paddy power

urge2kill · 02-06-11, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by brooks85

ya ive been getting more and more tempted to see what it takes to establish a residency in canada, im only a 5 hours away. I want pinnacle more than anything with those mma limits.

I'm a couple hours from Mexico. Does Paddy Power take Mexicans?

urge2kill · 02-06-11, 01:54 PM

It's now Bones -195/+155 at Bookmaker

Vaughany · 02-06-11, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by urge2kill

I'm a couple hours from Mexico. Does Paddy Power take Mexicans?

Yep you would be welcome, as far as I'm aware Paddy does not discriminate against Mexicans!

urge2kill · 02-06-11, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yep you would be welcome, as far as I'm aware Paddy does not discriminate against Mexicans!

Those lines are well worth risking my life to go into Mexico.

gym rat · 02-07-11, 12:21 PM

Great Job Vaughny! I'm wanting some of that European Book Action as well. Just one note, I think 99.99% of posters here understand that when you make a wager and win you also get your stake returned.

Vaughany · 02-07-11, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by gym rat

Great Job Vaughny! I'm wanting some of that European Book Action as well. Just one note, I think 99.99% of posters here understand that when you make a wager and win you also get your stake returned.

ha I know I know, but some of the books I use state total return rather than just profit so I just set out all my plays very simply and clearly on my spreadsheet so that there are no mistakes then copy and paste my plays to here.

Mr.Kitty · 02-07-11, 02:00 PM

You got some nice bets in mind, at first glance some of those who caught my attention was:

Vemola to beat Cane;

Sadollah to beat Ludwig;

Hathaway to beat McCray;

Will most likely be on the same bets (if the odds are decent/good). Hathaway is on a much higher level then McCray imo, Sadollahs muy thai looks fukkin slick as hell and if I can get Vemola at a good price, hopefully even as an slight underdog it might very well be worth a bigger bet.

Vaughany · 02-07-11, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by Mr.Kitty

You got some nice bets in mind, at first glance some of those who caught my attention was:

Vemola to beat Cane;

Sadollah to beat Ludwig;

Hathaway to beat McCray;

Will most likely be on the same bets (if the odds are decent/good). Hathaway is on a much higher level then McCray imo, Sadollahs muy thai looks fukkin slick as hell and if I can get Vemola at a good price, hopefully even as an slight underdog it might very well be worth a bigger bet.

Yeah I'm not sure Vemola will come out as dog but it shouldn't be worse than -120 to -140 range, and either way I think he will get a lot of action after that Petruzelli beatdown so gonna need to grab it early. If he does come out as a dog he will undoubtedly end up clear favourite by fight time so will be a great arb opportunity.

I see Sadollah as a better version of Osipczak who knocked Ludwig down in first round and IMO won the second round then gassed out and did nothin in 3rd round. Sadollah wont have these cardio issues and I think his stand-up is slightly better than Osipczak. Sadollah by decision will probly be my play.

Hathaway should absolutely dominate McCray and the odds will probably reflect this, I expect -280 to -320 range. Probly have to take a prop bet of Hathaway by decision or TKO as well.

BTW just noticed ur an Inter fan! Im a Juve fan...MASSIVE game this Sunday night coming up...I have a feeling that your gonna absolutely whoop us tho!

Mr.Kitty · 02-07-11, 05:48 PM

Sorry, accidental double post...stupid phone

check the post below...

Mr.Kitty · 02-07-11, 05:52 PM

Yeah, Hathaway will be a big favorite so a prop bet is a must.

Oh you're a Juventus fan, im surprised, one would think you would be supporting a english club since you live there and got the PL etc. I am very much looking forward to the match on sunday

all I can say is play the over. Preferably early, the odds will drop.

xelance · 02-07-11, 07:36 PM

what do you think about Condit -185 vs Lytle? I think it is a great bet..but looking for opinions

Vaughany · 02-08-11, 05:21 AM

Originally posted by Mr.Kitty

Yeah, Hathaway will be a big favorite so a prop bet is a must.

Oh you're a Juventus fan, im surprised, one would think you would be supporting a english club since you live there and got the PL etc. I am very much looking forward to the match on sunday

all I can say is play the over. Preferably early, the odds will drop.

Yeah all my family are Arsenal fans, season ticket holders at Emirates, but I've just never liked the over-commercialism of English football or Americanization of it if u like. The atmosphere of an Italian game is just completely different to a Prem game, so much more visceral and intimidating...nothing like standing with the Drughi and having flares flying over your head coming from the rival Lazio fans! I started supporting Juve after we beat Ajax in Champs League final in 1996 and have stuck with them through thick and thin ever since...current squad is a shadow of the teams we used to have though before Calciopoli!

Yeah the over is a good call, Im expecting Inter to score at least 3. Also like betting on Felipe Melo to get booked, pretty much a sure thing!

Vaughany · 02-08-11, 05:31 AM

Originally posted by xelance

what do you think about Condit -185 vs Lytle? I think it is a great bet..but looking for opinions

Really not sure about this one, Lytle is continually under-rated, especially his BJJ. His subs on Brown and Foster were slick and Condit can be quite erratic at times (similar to Foster). However, Condit's reach and pace is going to give him an advantage but I personally dont think it warrants the -196 odds that he is at now (best you can get him at on Sportbet). I'd of taken Condit at -150 or better but think best he's been at was -170. I think the best bet is for fight to go to decision at -140 on Sportbet or Condit by decision when it comes out. I managed to get fight go to decision at Evens and should of gone a hell of a lot bigger on it as it was bound to move to -150 range.

The HOFF · 02-08-11, 05:42 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

UFC 128 Play:

5 units on Jon Jones at -160 to win 3.125 units (plus stake).

I managed to get -180. Hopefully Shogun is a huge dog by fight night for guaranteed profit.

Vaughany · 02-08-11, 06:12 AM

Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva Plays:

0.273 units on Kharitonov by TKO/KO at +250 to win 0.683 units;

0.2 units on Fedor by TKO/KO at +225 to win 0.45 units;

0.1 units on Arlovski by decision at +400 to win 0.4 units.

Very small plays due to bet limits but I don't like putting much on Strikeforce events anyway. See value in all three of these as the odds for Fedor by TKO/KO or more like +140 to +170 range on most sites, Kharitonov by TKO/KO is like +200 to +215 and Arlovski by decision is between +330 to +350 range.

Vaughany · 02-08-11, 06:41 AM

Strikeforce: Columbus Play:

1.4 units on Rafael Cavalcante at +225 to win 3.15 units.

Vaughany · 02-08-11, 06:51 AM

Additional UFC 127 Play:

0.777 units on Noke/Camozzi to decision at -120 to win 0.648 units.