Hamill's stand up is so poor that it's hard to bet on him against a guy that will keep it standing. I did take him vs. Jardine in anticipation of a stand-up bout, but that was more based off Jardine's recent incompetence. While Ortiz's stand-up is also pretty bad, he is quicker and could potentially out point Hamill. He'll need to avoid getting visibly beat up as that would sway the judges towards Hamill. If he doesn't get cut bad or anything, I think Ortiz has the ability to out-point for the win. At the current odds however, this is a no play for me.
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Well I've watched the tape and I really like the play so I'm sticking to it. You guys can tell me I told you so if it loses lol. I watched Tito's and Hamill's last 4 fights and it just made me feel more confident with my initial presumption. Have to go with what I've capped. I think the Rashad fight was a solid indicator of what I can expect from Tito in this fight. Rashad is IMO a better wrestler, striker and significantly faster than Hamill. Tito was able to stuff almost all of his takedowns (other than when he grabbed the fence twice and in the last 10 seconds of the 3rd round). As well, Hamill doesn't set up his takedowns. They are very telegraphed and easy to sprawl against. Against Jardine, he rarely tried for the takedown. When he did, he was stuff around half the times with ease, and the ones he did succeed with were when Jardine was in a bad position to defend against it and was dragged to the floor. He was then able to work back to his feet pretty quickly. I don't think Hamill will be able to bully takedowns against Ortiz, nor control him in the clinch. As well, Tito was able to take Rashad down using the double multiple times - No one has ever really tried to take Hamill down, so I think its a little premature to think he has good TDD.
As for the striking matchup, Hamill showed that he still has a lot of limitations in his standup. He doesn't throw combos and relies more on winging hooks and single body kicks. I think he will be tentative to throw that body kick as Tito was able to catch the leg of a much faster Rashad a couple times which lead to easy takedowns. I think Tito has the more refined striking and should be able to score more on the feet. Tito also utilized the leg kick well in both the Rashad and Forrest II fights, and Hamill has always struggled checking kicks since his lead leg is usually exposed from his wide stance.
The worry for me in this fight is the latter end of the fight. Tito was 1 minute away from beating Forrest again in their second fight until he started to gas very late in the 2nd round. Forrest was able to sweep him at that point and steal the round. It was Tito's up to that point. Same with his fight vs Rashad. He won the first 2 rounds convincingly and was on his way to winning the 3rd round until he gassed in the last 3:00 and allowed Rashad to dictate the fight as well as secure a takedown at the very end to steal the round. Hamill's gas tank isn't all that great either, but he is a grinder and could definitely steal the 3rd round if Tito's conditioning is on par with what he has shown in his last couple fights.
I will also add a play on Guymon. I wasn't impressed at all with Roberts in his fight vs. Petz. He usually puts up a great first round using his superior grappling, but fades very quickly. Guymon is more well rounded, has solid power and an underrated ground game. He should be able to keep it standing in the last 2 rounds to earn a decision or possibly a stoppage. I think he is worth a play as a small dog.
UFC 121:
Ortiz (+146) 1.5 units to win 2.19 units
Ortiz by Decision (+253) 0.5 units to win 1.265 units
Guymon (+130) 1.5 units to win 1.95 units
More to come.Comment -
Good odds there for Ortiz by decision. Can't see him finishing this fight. I agree with your assessment. I think it's very close, but I like Ortiz on the feet by a slight margin.Comment -
Good luck Ecco
Well, good luck with your other picks... I selfishly hope you're wrong just this once because I will lose a lot of money if Tito wins. If you're right I'll be very impressed. And living in poverty.
I don't mean to be so argumentative in your thread, but I have to dispute just one comment: "No one has ever really tried to take Hamill down, so I think its a little premature to think he has good TDD."
In the UFC, the stellar wrestlers Mark Munoz, Reese Andy, and Rex Holman all attempted takedowns on Hamill, and none of them came close. The only person who got him down was Jon Jones, and that was with a trip from the clinch.
This was forever ago, so I know it doesn't mean too much, but I remember how impressed I was when Hamill was on TUF and they showed how during practices he would effortlessly defend takedowns without using his hands. Hamill's wrestling pedigree is just too good; I would be shocked if Tito (whose wrestling is really mediocre by comparison) gets him down.Comment -
I think there is a big difference between wrestling pedigree and wrestling in MMA. It has become very apparent that Mark Munoz's wrestling hasn't translated at all to MMA. His TD's looked horrible against Okami and bad against Grove. Same can be said for Reese Andy. And I disagree with u saying that Ortiz's wrestling is mediocre compared to Hamill. He took down Rashad and Forrest with ease in the first 2 rounds of both fights. Rashad's wrestling pedigree is much better in both NCAA and MMA. Throw in a far distant fight vs. Matyushenko who is a great wrestler in his own right, and Tito was able to take him down multiple times as well. Hamill is a Division III wrestler and he hasn't IMO demonstrated great MMA wrestling. Franklin and Jardine (other than 2 instances) were able to keep the fight standing throughout. Bisping who isnt a very good wrestler was taken down but was able to get up quickly. None of these fighters have anywhere near the wrestling of Ortiz. But we will see I guess.Comment -
How come this takedown strategy never worked against Chuck?Comment -
Chuck Liddell has some of the best TDD in MMA history. Not sure what that has to do with Matt Hamill. Randy could barely take Chuck down and he's one of the best wrestlers ever in MMA. And I never said he was going to takedown Hamill as a strategy. I said I believe he can early if he wants to. He has a bigger advantage on the feet.Comment -
tito`s had one fight a year for the last 4 years...is he still a serious competitor?...
or is he collecting checks?....he`s been frequently injured...
my gut is that the guy`s done...nobody knows who`s wrestling will dominate(if it comes to that)....but i do believe that the "older tito" has the most overrated cardio of any high profile fighter in history...people thought he had good cardio because in the fights he won,he was able to take top position(in his youth)....
but the last few years,he can`t sustain in fights.... if he can`t take guys down,he`s usually not winning fights....he can`t go a strong 3 anymore....
if this is a stand-up fight,i think that tito will have to play bisping...`cause win or lose,hamill`s coming forward...he`ll have to move for 3 rounds....i`m pretty sure that hamill has a power advantage...
tito will have to move for 3 rounds....or take hamill down...
can he take down hamill and keep him there?....who knows?...that`s the question...
can anyone recall tito taking a guy out other than via g&p?....i can`t...but i think his hands are quicker than hammill`s...
i`m not disputing ecco`s opinion...just trying to tie up loose ends and cement an opinion on a difficult fight to call... ...Comment -
Hamill took down Jardine twice and he took down Franklin once. Neither kept the fight standing throughout.
If wrestling becomes a factor we'll see who's better, though as you say it might just remain a standup fight. I remember an interview in which Ortiz actually admitted that Hamill is the better wrestler but stated that he'll have the advantage elsewhere. I think you're right that the fight will probably play out on the feet, I just disagree that Tito will have an advantage striking. If he outpoints Hamill I think it will only last until Hamill lands one powerful punch or kick that turns the tables for good. Well, we'll find out soon enough. I won't make any more stubborn comments on this fight in your thread. Good luck!Last edited by lasker; 10-19-10, 09:34 PM.Comment -
I always wondered where Chuck's TDD came from. Whether it was more a product of being a Div 1 wrestler or a byproduct of his striking ability. There are plenty of sprawl-and-brawlers out there, but even as tight a striker as Anderson Silva seems to rolled over more then any of them. Makes me wonder if the best defense against a wrestler really is another wrestler, which in turn gives me doubts on the Brock and Cain fight.
Makes wonder about Kampmann too. It'd be funny if Randy was using Chuck's blueprint on Jake, knowing how worthless a striker he is. And with the rumors of him being injured...hmm.Comment -
I hope no one is overrating his cardio. He has shown that he has 2 good rounds in him with the 3rd being a big issue. Like I said thats my biggest worry for him. Although I don't see this being a grappling match so he may be able to reserve more in the gas tank.
And he may be collecting paychecks - but this will be the last one if he loses. You can lose close fights to contenders like Griffin, Machida and get a draw with Rashad. If he loses to a gatekeeper level guy such as Hamill, I don't see the UFC paying him triple figures anymore to be a low-level gatekeeper himself. I think he knows this, and its one of the reasons I believe he has been very focused and quiet leading up to this fight. Its due or die for his career.
lol no worries. That's what forums are for. Not everyone will agree on how they believe a fight will play out!
I think Chuck's TDD is definitely first a product of his wrestling background, but his striking prowess makes it that much easier due to the fact that ppl were afraid to exchange with him to set the takedowns up. He's very good at sprawling and when guys would just shoot in without any sort of combo to set it up, he was able to easily defend.
Kampmann/Shields is a very interesting fight I think. I have more tape to watch and it will prolly be a no play, but I have this funny vision in my head of Shields shooting in low with his head down like he always does and Kampmann catching him with a guillotine haha. Obviously theres a very small chance that this happens but it's stuck in my brain for some reason!Comment -
Go with your gut! I really hope it happens. Kampmann by submission is +1300 at 5dimes... worth a shot I think. What are your thoughts on Lesnar/Velasquez? No play? My lean is Lesnar since I think he can eventually take Velasquez down, and he won't get taken down himself, and I don't think Velasquez has the power to knock him out on the feet. But it's tough to call.Last edited by lasker; 10-19-10, 10:08 PM.Comment -
Haha I might throw something small on it, but need to finish up tape first. Still working on Lesnar/Velaquez. Tough fight for me so far to pick a side on. I think Velasquez's speed may cause problems for Lesnar, although I'm not sure how long Cain will be able to avoid the clinch and takedown. I think Lesnar is going to be focused on getting Cain up against the cage as soon as he can, but cutting off the cage may be a problem with Cain's footwork. I'm actually leaning towards over 2.5 rounds, but I haven't sold myself quite yet.
Adding:
UFC 121:
Camozzi (+125) 1.5 units to win 1.875 unitsComment -
Have to agree with you on all accounts here Ecco! Im also considering a play on Guymon or at least going to add him in a parlay. With regard to Ortiz, my initial inclination was that Hamill would get a decision comfortably, but after watching more of their past fights again, I cant rule out a decision win for Tito. Im hoping to get Tito by decision at +300 on paddypower or skybet when the props come out and straddle it with Hamill by decision or just bet straight up on the fight going to decision, cant see either fighter finishing the other (but then I also didnt foresee Condit finishing Hardy the other night!).
Gonna put a couple of units on Camozzi at +120 on skybet as well I think. His line is going down and I think it may well end up close to Evens by time of the fight (already has gone to Evens at Bet365 and +108 on pinnacle now). The Korean's record appears impressive, however the guys he has beaten have the following rather average records:
Bill Saures: 5 wins 5 losses
Pawel Nastula: 2 wins 4 losses
Ryuta Noji: 11 wins 6 losses
Keigo Takamori: 6 wins 6 losses
Junpei Hamada: 7 wins 14 losses
Chang Seob Lee: 3 wins 5 losses
Yun Seob Kwak: 6 wins 9 losses
You get the picture!!
Clearly he has fought a load of average fighters although the majority did outweigh him by at least 20lbs as he was fighting at heavyweight. It appears that he has poor footwork and not the best submission awareness based on his fight against Nastula (probly the toughest guy he's fought), and Camozzi will have height and reach advantage. Will also be his first time travelling a long way to fight and first time in the octagon. My only concern is that Dong's strength is wrestling and Camozzi has struggled with straight up wrestlers in the past losing to Forbes and J Taylor, but then they are better than anybody Yang has faced before IMO. I feel Camozzi should be the slight favourite in this one so I'll take him at +120 or better.Comment -
Ooo, no. I do not like the Camozzi bet going around. His primary grappling style seems to be based on Judo and Muay Thai. And going against a wrestler who trains with, of all people, Korean Top Team with your clinch-centric muscle memory and your lanky, coat-rack center of gravity sounds like a long day. The kind that I don't think training with Brian Gumm can avert.Comment -
Et tu, Vaughany?! Man, you guys are scaring me. Come on! These days Tito's an even worse fighter than he is a commentator, no? No?! How will he hurt Hamill?!
Here I was thinking Hamill is practically lock of the century and now here I am hedging. This is embarrassing. I'm putting money on the moron who claims Hamill's got a soft head because he's deaf. God forgive me.
I admit, the dealbreaker was listening again to Hamill saying there are two guys in the UFC who are like brothers to him, Rich Franklin and Tito. And we saw how the Rich Franklin fight turned out. Of course, Tito's not half the fighter Rich is nowadays, but I don't like hearing Hamill say that. I suddenly had a nightmare of his closeness with Tito giving him an acute case of nice guy syndrome, a.k.a. patbarryitis. Could happen.
edit: A better hedge is just to bet on the fight going to decision, so that's what I'll do. That way if Hamill wins by decision I win even more, and if Tito wins by decision at least I won't lose my shirt, and if Tito wins inside the distance at least I'll get to watch flying pigs and hell freezing over.Last edited by lasker; 10-20-10, 12:31 PM.Comment -
haha Im with you in that I think Hamill should definitely beat Tito on paper, but I've just got a bad feeling that Hamill might not turn up on the night (not literally, more mentally!) and Tito might manage to steal a split-decision or something. More significantly, after seeing all the terrible judging decisions recently I've taken a more conservative stance with prop bets...a few months ago I'd of definitely just bet on Hamill by decision, but after the Sherk/Dunham travesty (amongst others) Id rather go for the safer option when a fight is a rather close one such as this.Et tu, Vaughany?! Man, you guys are scaring me. Come on! These days Tito's an even worse fighter than he is a commentator, no? No?! How will he hurt Hamill?!
Here I was thinking Hamill is practically lock of the century and now here I am hedging. This is embarrassing. I'm putting money on the moron who claims Hamill's got a soft head because he's deaf. God forgive me.
I admit, the dealbreaker was listening again to Hamill saying there are two guys in the UFC who are like brothers to him, Rich Franklin and Tito. And we saw how the Rich Franklin fight turned out. Of course, Tito's not half the fighter Rich is nowadays, but I don't like hearing Hamill say that. I suddenly had a nightmare of his closeness with Tito giving him an acute case of nice guy syndrome, a.k.a. patbarryitis. Could happen.
edit: A better hedge is just to bet on the fight going to decision, so that's what I'll do. That way if Hamill wins by decision I win even more, and if Tito wins by decision at least I won't lose my shirt, and if Tito wins inside the distance at least I'll get to watch flying pigs and hell freezing over.
I don't think the Tito being like a "brother" thing is going to be an issue, especially after the moronic things that Tito has said in the countdown show and offending the death community!
Overall, I agree that if u r hedging your Hamill play then betting on it going to decision is the right move rather than just hedging it with Ortiz by decision.Comment -
He first slandered the deaf community on Inside MMA, and to their credit Kenny Rice and Bas Rutten had a classic "WTF??!" reaction. Tito says so many stupid things it's mind-boggling. He can't open his mouth without something stupid coming out.
In homage to Tito:
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LOL at the Tito video.Comment -
Camozzi's reach and height are going to be problematic for Yang. From the 3 fights I've seen of him, he has a propensity to stand and bang and he has pretty bad technique and footwork. He does throw large volumes of punches, but they are mostly arm punches and are compact in nature which will be difficult to land from the outside on a guy with Camozzi's reach. He's not a controlling or grappling oriented fighter and has stated that he wants to make an impression like his friend the Korean Zombie. I don't see him going for takedown after takedown and even if he does, his ground and pound and top control aren't anything special from the footage I have seen. Camozzi's wrestling is a concern, but it looked improved vs. Hammortree and he was owning Jesse Forbes till he got caught in the 3rd by an armbar.
lol, stick with what you capped! Don't let anyone take you off what you think is the right side. I've been wrong plenty of times and most disagree with me on this one so I could be the one on the short end of the stick! I do wanna say one thing for all the ppl that keep saying Tito hasn't won a fight since Shamrock 3 years ago. Yes this is very true, but his draw/losses are to the currently number 2, 3 and 5 ranked LHW's and he was barely edged out by Forrest and basically won the fight with Rashad. The guy has been competitive and I don't think Hamill would do quite as well against those same 3 fighters. But thats JMO!Et tu, Vaughany?! Man, you guys are scaring me. Come on! These days Tito's an even worse fighter than he is a commentator, no? No?! How will he hurt Hamill?!
Here I was thinking Hamill is practically lock of the century and now here I am hedging. This is embarrassing. I'm putting money on the moron who claims Hamill's got a soft head because he's deaf. God forgive me.
I admit, the dealbreaker was listening again to Hamill saying there are two guys in the UFC who are like brothers to him, Rich Franklin and Tito. And we saw how the Rich Franklin fight turned out. Of course, Tito's not half the fighter Rich is nowadays, but I don't like hearing Hamill say that. I suddenly had a nightmare of his closeness with Tito giving him an acute case of nice guy syndrome, a.k.a. patbarryitis. Could happen.
edit: A better hedge is just to bet on the fight going to decision, so that's what I'll do. That way if Hamill wins by decision I win even more, and if Tito wins by decision at least I won't lose my shirt, and if Tito wins inside the distance at least I'll get to watch flying pigs and hell freezing over.Comment -
yang certainly didn`t look like a ufc level fighter on the vid i watched....his g&p vs the fat pantload i watched on youtube was embarassing....i watched a few minutes of that video and my eyes started spinning counter-clockwise....of course,that doesn`t mean i`m cashing in bonds to play camozzi...small at best for me,given that the odds aren`t all that tempting......and dana`s pushing to get into as many foreign markets as possible...it`s in his best interests to see these guys succeed...
as for the hamill "love"comments,that raises a red flag for me....i have a 2-1 parlay going with hamill as the kicker(couture over toney lol...and mitrione)....so,rather than repeat the bonehead move i made with with stephan bonnar over mark coleman(my teeth itch when i type those names) and let a lucrative payoff go the way of the buggy whip,i`will consider my new acquaintance ecco`s arguments and give some thought to hedging(or straddling as you guys like to say).....Last edited by rocky mattioli; 10-20-10, 10:18 PM.Comment -
lol, stick with what you capped! Don't let anyone take you off what you think is the right side. I've been wrong plenty of times and most disagree with me on this one so I could be the one on the short end of the stick! I do wanna say one thing for all the ppl that keep saying Tito hasn't won a fight since Shamrock 3 years ago. Yes this is very true, but his draw/losses are to the currently number 2, 3 and 5 ranked LHW's and he was barely edged out by Forrest and basically won the fight with Rashad. The guy has been competitive and I don't think Hamill would do quite as well against those same 3 fighters. But thats JMO![/quote]
Tito has fought some great competition, I just see a considerable decline in his abilities each time out. Whereas, I think Hamill is still improving.Comment -
I'm split on this fight, but I think im going to go with Tito for the value. he doesn't deserve to be as big as a dog as he is
Hammil has that never give up attitude, but he isn't actually that fit and technically he is ordinary, apart from at wrestling. I also think he'll struggle off his back if he gets there.
Tito on the other hand has trained BJJ for a long, long time (someone remind me who he was with early on - i remember training him with Donohue a LONG time ago) and his BJJ has always looked OK.
The problem with Tito is he is scared of getting hit and his shot is getting crapper and crapper everytime i watch him fight. In counter to that, Hamill's stand up stinks too and if he takes Tito down, he ain't keeping him there IMO and runs the risk of getting reversed and elbowed a lot.Comment -
See the over 2.5 rounds is out on pinnacle now Ecco at +121...are u tempted?! I've said in the other thread that I wouldnt be surprised if it went the distance as I jus find it hard to envisage either of them ever being KO'd or TKO'd, although of course it can happen! I dont expect either to rush in in the first round and just start throwing punches. Cain is clearly going to be looking to move and circle alot and just survive in the first couple of rounds with the hope that Lesnar will gass out in the last 2 or 3 rounds or at least be tired to the point wer Cain can step it up and punish Brock. I also wouldnt be surprised if there is a lot of clinching, jostling and hugging against the cage for the first two rounds. If Brock does manage to keep taking Cain down or just keep him down thn I think Cain will be fresh enough to withstand the GnP enough to last at least 2.5 rounds. Im expecting Brock to either win by TKO/KO in rounds 3 or 4, OR Velasquez to win by decision. Contemplating puttin a unit on it anyway!Comment -
tito will be good probably for the first round but he will gas after that.Comment -
I'm liking the combo going around here of taking Tito to win plus fight goes to decision prop. This way you can bet the value of Tito, but still be all right if Hamill wins the decision. I don't think Hamill's gonna finish this fight. That's not exactly what he does. Of course, if Tito is resigned to this being his final check then he may just mail it in and quit early. Not likely though.Comment -
Kinda short notice but any trigger-pulling on Bellator or Challengers? They got kinda lost in the Brocktober shuffle.Comment -
I do like it but I'm going to wait. I think money more money is going to come in on the under. I'm actually prolly going to take Starts Round 3 rather than over 2.5 rounds. I like not having to worry about that extra 2:30 lol.
Yea, I got one parlay tonight. Seems a little squarish but I feel pretty confident in both guys.
BFC 33:
Alvarez/Askren 2-fight parlay (-117) 2.34 units to win 2 units
I may sprinkle on Voelker tomorrow but I need to watch their first fight again.Comment -
Madsen is a better wrestler than Rothwell and a decision master hence why he's such a big favourite. He has said after his last couple of fights that he is eager to show that he has improved stand-up (and he did indeed stand for much longer than usual in his last fight), if he decides to stand with Gilbert for too long he may get KO'd, but unlikely that this happens of course!Comment
