system integrity 2012

[slapshot]

7-3-4 +5.28 units
wins-losses-pushes

thursday
new york yankees......-1 to win 2.72 units.....'b' level bet


yesterday
new york yankees......-1 to win 1 unit.....'a' level bet**loser**

[njb5572]

so for those of us making a run line of -1, seems that juice gets really high on the m/l. For example, it appears that I need to wager 8.7 units on my B m/l bet and roughly 2.5 on my B -1.5 r/l bet. Can somebody confirm that I am doing this right? Doesn't seem right...

[CrazyCarl]

How in the world did you get to betting 10 units?

[slapshot]

so for those of us making a run line of -1, seems that juice gets really high on the m/l. For example, it appears that I need to wager 8.7 units on my B m/l bet and roughly 2.5 on my B -1.5 r/l bet. Can somebody confirm that I am doing this right? Doesn't seem right...

did you use the -1 run line calculator?
if not i can mail it to you if you pm me your e-mail address

[J.M. Disciple]

This is wht the labby line looks like running 1 labby line at (-150 odds) during the worse run over 6 seasons.

lost 5 - 5 - 5 - 5 ($15 to win $10)
lost 7-7-7-7-7 ($21 to win $14)
lost 9.4 x 6 ( 28.2 to win 18.8)
lost 12.09 x 7#s (36.27 to win 24.18)
push 15.12 x 12 #s
lost 15.12 x 12 #s (45.36 to win 30.24)
won 17.45 x 13#s
lost 17.45 x 11#s (52.35 to win 34.90)
lost 18.11 x 12#s (54.33 to win 36.22)
won 20.90 x 13#s
lost 20.90 x 11#s (62.70 to win 41.80)
lost 24.39 x 12 #s ( 73.17 to win 48.78 )
won 28.15 x 13#s
lost 28.15 x 11#s (84.45 to win 56.30)

Final LIne: $32.85 x 12 #s (98.55 to win 65.70)


most money in play $394.2
Largest bet 9.9units to win 6.6u


This was done with 2 units per line as a $10 unit size.
It was then followed by 4 straight wins reducing your line back down to 4 #s.

With this system your largest bet with the labby could get as high as 20 units although it has not
happened yet. Just prepare yourself for when it does. To avoid this maybe only do 1 unit
per labby line for a safe bankroll management and just grind this out for a couple seasons

You would have multiple 10 unit bets to clear your line at this point if your doing 2 units per line. This has only happened once over 6 seasons of back testing, so i would advocate doing 1% per labby line since your biggest bet will only reach 5units max long run. If your comfortable making 10 unit bets multiple days in a row, then go ahead and be my guest.

Also would like to note If you kept stagnant unit size your bankroll would be around 150 units before you reach this marker so 10 unit bets shouldn't be too much of a problem.

[njb5572]

I could try and explain it to you but I think it would be easier if I just thanked slapshot in advance for the calc.

[Teamprofit101]

JM Disciple, i'm glad you started following this thread..good to have you here

Sorry guys haven't really had time to post the system i was back testing. It's not much of a system and i don't know if anyone else has came up with it. I just had the idea and started testing it with this season.

I just started watching baseball so i'm not sure if the schedule stays the same where a team plays each other back to back, but both systems are based on this.

it's actually two separate systems

First system- The teams have to play atleast 3 times minimum series....We tail the team that wins the first two games to win the third game and sweep the other team. If 4 game series, and team won first two but lose next game we chase 3rd win on 4th game.

I started back testing on 4/5 of this year and i haven't finished because i haven't had time..so last series i updated was Reds vs Nationals starting on 4/12-4/15

Record
wins -11(1 win was chased,4 game series)
Losses- 3
Noplays-17

I'll post the other system later when i have some more time. I really don't have enough data to come up with a good betting strategy, but hopefully you guys can help with that.

[J.M. Disciple]

Anyone on Philly today?

NYY is system play today, but im taking Philly as well. -1 is +113 at 5dimes. Have 6 #s on my line so going to cross off 2 with Yanks and 2 with Philly today

Get on it!!!

They have small favorite, but dominate SD in most categories. Phillies offense always struggles some but SD is just bad, so fingers crossed.

[Teamprofit101]

Anyone on Philly today?

NYY is system play today, but im taking Philly as well. -1 is +113 at 5dimes. Have 6 #s on my line so going to cross off 2 with Yanks and 2 with Philly today

Get on it!!!

They have small favorite, but dominate SD in most categories. Phillies offense always struggles some but SD is just bad, so fingers crossed.

Yea philly is a good play, i'm also on it for tonight

Good luck!!!

[Teamprofit101]

JM Disciple, i'm glad you started following this thread..good to have you here

Sorry guys haven't really had time to post the system i was back testing. It's not much of a system and i don't know if anyone else has came up with it. I just had the idea and started testing it with this season.

I just started watching baseball so i'm not sure if the schedule stays the same where a team plays each other back to back, but both systems are based on this.

it's actually two separate systems

First system- The teams have to play atleast 3 times minimum series....We tail the team that wins the first two games to win the third game and sweep the other team. If 4 game series, and team won first two but lose next game we chase 3rd win on 4th game.

I started back testing on 4/5 of this year and i haven't finished because i haven't had time..so last series i updated was Reds vs Nationals starting on 4/12-4/15

Record
wins -11(1 win was chased,4 game series)
Losses- 3
Noplays-17

I'll post the other system later when i have some more time. I really don't have enough data to come up with a good betting strategy, but hopefully you guys can help with that.

Ok so i had sometime to update a little more

Series starting 4/5 to 4/13

Record
Wins - 14
Loss - 8

I like it but it seems that later into the season it might not be a good system.

Now the second system is doing really good, tested same time 4/5-4/13

Record
Wins - 28
Loss - 11

The 11 losses can be turned into no losses i think with the right betting strategy. I will continue testing, hopefully within a week i can test last years results

[CrazyCarl]

Felt like it should've been a win today. 3 on in the 6th with 1 out... double play.

[J.M. Disciple]

your basically betting the 3rd and 4th game to be a sweep for your system? I do not know if you can call it a system since there does not appear to be a chase method involved, but flat betting or labbying might work. You will need like 5 years of back testing to see what the winning percent of this is.

You can probably google how often a team gets swept after losing the first two games of a 3 game series.

[J.M. Disciple]

Felt like it should've been a win today. 3 on in the 6th with 1 out... double play.

i feel like just labbing texas all season!!!

[CrazyCarl]

i feel like just labbing texas all season!!!

I feel this system is about to start calling for a Texas play quite often.

[Teamprofit101]

yea texas has been awesome

[Teamprofit101]

your basically betting the 3rd and 4th game to be a sweep for your system? I do not know if you can call it a system since there does not appear to be a chase method involved, but flat betting or labbying might work. You will need like 5 years of back testing to see what the winning percent of this is.

You can probably google how often a team gets swept after losing the first two games of a 3 game series.

Since i'm still looking for information i havent really thought about the best way to manage money.

I will test it some more but i might pass on following it because i like the results to the second system. I'm really just trying to throw ideas out there and maybe someone can spot something else.

Thanks for your response JM

[Teamprofit101]

I updated the spreadsheet a bit https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...0MtN0dmbTZXdmc

I'm running my labby line very flexible due to limited funds and i'm playing money line so i'm paying for a lot more juice.

But i am also tracking the progress of the system based off the wins/losses/percentage

For those following the sheet, let me know if there is anything i can add or remove. I try to add the plays as soon as slapshot releases them.

[1gamer]

i feel like just labbing texas all season!!!

Great idea JM...I'll tail you buddy...

[J.M. Disciple]

4/20/12 TB(-1) Friday

official play for tomorrow.

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/matchups/g4_summary_11.html
Here is the link for texas tomorrow.

Ill be on texas to help clear 2 #s. Chart looks good and the way they dominated today I do not mind (-106) juice!


*If we labbied texas its last 10 games we be up 9 units already If we took them -1 we still be up quite a bit!

[J.M. Disciple]

Mange your bankroll guys. 1-2% max as a starting labby line is best approach. I recommend 1% if you are playing other systems cause back test results show you have nearly 40% or 40units in play with a 2 unit labby line. I started this labby line with 2% but after i learned of the worse stretch and the odds decided to be smart!

Bankroll management is key to beating any season. A long with patience.

Ill be on TB and Texas tomorrow both a little under 2units.

>>> PS hope you all enjoyed the Phillys pick i sent.

[slapshot]

7-3-5 +5.28 units
wins-losses-pushes

friday
tampa......-1 to win 2.72 units.....'b' level bet


yesterday
new york yankees......-1 to win 2.72 units.....'b' level bet**push**

[Dom177]

Beware of Texas tonight JM. They have been crazy hot but after last night's miserable performance and 3/4 of the stadium leaving by the 7th inning the Tigers will come out tonight, especially with JV on the mound for them. Just somethin to think about!

[J.M. Disciple]

Definitely need TB to come through. On3 is on them as well. My personal plays will be on ATL and Texas today.

[dlunc3]

lookin like C bet on weaver and merry men

[J.M. Disciple]

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/matchups/g4_summary_8.html

4/21
Play of day: LAD (-1) vs Houston.
[c] LEVEL

Wish 5dimes offered the -1 line sooner.... Juice going to be like -180

[slapshot]

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/matchups/g4_summary_8.html

4/21
Play of day: LAD (-1) vs Houston.
[c] LEVEL

Wish 5dimes offered the -1 line sooner.... Juice going to be like -180

going with sbr lines dodgers is the biggest favorite of the day. however my data is based on covers opening lines and anaheim is the biggest favorite there.

pinnacle opening lines at covers i should add.

best of luck with whatever you play.

[slapshot]

7-4-5 +1.98 units
wins-losses-pushes

saturday
anaheim angels......-1 to win 6.02 units.....'c' level bet


yesterday
tampa......-1 to win 2.72 units.....'b' level bet**loser**

[J.M. Disciple]

going with sbr lines dodgers is the biggest favorite of the day. however my data is based on covers opening lines and anaheim is the biggest favorite there.

pinnacle opening lines at covers i should add.

best of luck with whatever you play.

Play both and clear 4#s??? Sounds good to me.

[J.M. Disciple]

7-4-5 +1.98 units
wins-losses-pushes

saturday
anaheim angels......-1 to win 6.02 units.....'c' level bet


yesterday
tampa......-1 to win 2.72 units.....'b' level bet**loser**

LA angels same thing right? Not familiar with "Anaheim"

[slapshot]

Not familiar with "Anaheim"

fyi...there is team called los angeles angels of anaheim in the league.

[OTL]

fyi...there is team called los angeles angels of anaheim in the league.

Are you 100% sure your play is the LAA? Pinnacle and SBR has the Dodgers as the biggest favourite of the day!

[DollarBill10]

Are you 100% sure your play is the LAA? Pinnacle and SBR has the Dodgers as the biggest favourite of the day!

As slapshot stated, he used the OPENING line.

[slapshot]

Are you 100% sure your play is the LAA? Pinnacle and SBR has the Dodgers as the biggest favourite of the day!

if you read post #1....covers is the source for collecting the data.

[OTL]

if you read post #1....covers is the source for collecting the data.

The first post says you use Pinnacle opening lines though. There is no mention of Covers.com.

[DollarBill10]

The first post says you use Pinnacle opening lines though. There is no mention of Covers.com.

Covers is where you can find opening lines for many books...