I think what Axis is saying, and he's right, is that if your going to play a chase system your taking a big risk jumping in mid season as you have missed out on all the units won so far and can't use it as a buffer for any losses. Always be cautious and prepare for the worst
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Limit, what's the average number of loses you discovered per season using 5/2?Comment -
UPDATED for 07/05/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 89-9-0; Profit: -18
Filtered System: 35-1-0; Profit: +21.75
5/2 chase: 13-1-0; profit: +23.5 units
Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 54-48; 20-15
Game 2 (B) win = 28-16; 10-6; 8-6
Game 3 (C) win = 7-9; 5-1; 5-1
RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 07/05/2012
79-79-66-50
80-60-76-60
56-40-65-74
New Line Filtered
20-115-20-115
REGULAR FOR 07/05/2012
ARI -175 to win 79
Filtered
none
5/2
noneComment -
remove post sorryComment -
Thanks On3 and limit. I agree that you have to take your own risk when you started to follow in the mid of the season. No system guarantees to win forever.Comment -
Honestly I don't think it matters when you jump in a system as long as you're using the unit amount that you would use from day 1 because sometimes system are behind and have no buffer at the beginning of the season. You can't jump in at a progression already in play, that it reckless suicide. Anyone just starting this chase has the same odds of winning or losing as anyone that has been playing from day one it just all depends on BR management.
Labbys do get out of hand because poor management and unit loss distribution. How many times do you see a labby bottom heavy but in all actuality the 3rd game of a chase has the same odds of winning or losing as the first or second when you add a human element to it....to believe a team is due because it's the 2nd, 3rd or 4th loss in a row is foolish thinking.Comment -
I agree on 99% of what you said except keeping the same unit size through out the season which you are mostly right. I do not believe in increasing your unit size half way through the season any more like I use to, but I do believe if your bankroll takes a big hit that you should decrease it. Similar to advice I got from Atari (i know no one wants to hear that name), but when ever you lose 30-40% of your bankroll to readjust your unit size to 1% as your unit size once again espcially when your line is heavy.
When your line finishes clearing you will not be in the black, but this stops you from going bust most of the time unless your consistently making 20-30 unit bets then you will go bust. Atari has been down around 80 or 90 units this season and has had to adjust his unit size 2 or 3 times. Just not his season. His bankroll management is solid though I gotta give him credit for that.
I completely agree on your law of averages though Chound. Just cause a team has lost 3 or 4 in a row does not mean they are due for a win. Similar to NJN in NBA a couple seasons ago where they started out the season 0-27 or some thing before they got a win. No such thing as law of averages. However, there are many systems built on it such as wallco's that makes money long run, but does not guarantee victory every year.Comment -
O/U is up to 9. Play filtered?Comment -
No it is not a 5/2 it's O/U was 8.5 at CoversComment -
I never said increase your unit size as the season goes? Even though there's no reason you can't as long as you keep it in per portion with your BR. IF FLAT BETTING 1% of your BR is a recommended unit since most plays are or generally should be around the 1-5 units range, mostly 1-2 but ocassionaly jumping up to the 3-5. If using a labby I'd recommend using 1% of between 150 & 175 units because with a few bad streaks you can easily be down 30-40 units with them on the board .....problem with using 1% then is a loss and it's 3-4 more units per loss, problem with readjusting your unit size then is it takes 2-4 wins to equal each loss in the chase of a 3 game chase since the juice is so high. For example look at the chases before the last set on 6/28 we were 80-3 @ +.5, on 7/2 we were 83-8 @ -7....We lost 6.5 units but no chases were lost.
I'm by far no expert but have been gambling for over 15+ yrs and I was using a labby and a reverse labby 8-10 years ago in roulette which if I'm not mistaken it was originally intended for.Comment -
UPDATED for 07/05/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 89-9-0; Profit: -25
Filtered System: 35-1-0; Profit: +21.75
5/2 chase: 13-1-0; profit: +23.5 units
Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 54-49; 20-15
Game 2 (B) win = 28-16; 10-6; 8-6
Game 3 (C) win = 7-9; 5-1; 5-1
RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 07/05/2012
74-74-71-65-60
80-80-86-100
56-40-65-74
New Line Filtered
60-60-65-65
REGULAR FOR 07/06/2012
ARI -105 to win 100
WAS -220/-110 to win 74 - play RL
NY METS -166 to win 71
DET -190/+105 to win 74 -- play RL
CHI -153 to win 65
OAK -155 to win 60
Filtered
DET to win 60 - play RL
CHI WHITE SOX to win 60
5/2
noneComment -
Thx on3, lets hope for atleast 4 winners tonightComment -
How are you -25 with a 89-9 record? No hate, actually wondering.Comment -
Why is Texas not included in with the Filtered Plays?
They have a -151 line and O/U 10.5
Any help is well appreciated in advance...thanks.
REGULAR FOR 07/06/2012
ARI -105 to win 100
WAS -220/-110 to win 74 - play RL
NY METS -166 to win 71
DET -190/+105 to win 74 -- play RL
CHI -153 to win 65
OAK -155 to win 60
Filtered
DET to win 60 - play RL
CHI WHITE SOX to win 60Last edited by lapi7; 07-06-12, 03:44 PM.Comment -
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its 9 system losses which = 27 losses in all. The actual record is
Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 54-49; 20-15
Game 2 (B) win = 28-16; 10-6; 8-6
Game 3 (C) win = 7-9; 5-1; 5-1
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Tex 3 home game chase? Tex opened -140 or higher?
Tex may be a 5/2 play tomorrow if they lose today.
Good luck all
ON3
Might help noting Arz as a B wager... in your official post so people dont think your picking #s randomly from the lines.Comment -
How are you -25 with a 89-9 record? No hate, actually wondering.[/QUOTE]
[/QUOTE]Because when a labby starts getting out of hand in a 3 game chase you start getting in the hole rather quickly even with losses.[/QUOTE]
All right...
I'm really more confused than ever.
According to forum member "thelimit", he stated in all of the rules in post #790. However, some folks still had questions about the rules. I understand that all 5/2 games are based on the CLOSING LINE of the previous day where the team lost game A which we don't play anyway. Okay I think I understand that one.
Now... someone please...on3, Rizz, thelimit, walco99, J.M. Dis...SOMEBODY please CORRECTLY explain what EXACTLY constitutes a "Filtered Play". Are they based on opening lines both money line and O/U lines?? And if so WHO'S opening lines does one use? 5 Dimes? Covers?
I don't believe that Arizona qualifies as a 5/2 play because they closed yesterday at O/U 8.5 on Covers. Is this correct?
Any help is well appreciated...Thanks in advanceLast edited by lapi7; 07-06-12, 04:33 PM.Comment -
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The rules for the actual system, though rarely followed on this thread and accompanied with personal "feelings" on some plays, state that for a play to be OFFICIAL, that team must open at -145 or higher on 5Dimes, and at close, they must still be at or above -140.
For a filtered play, the above rule must be met, and the team must also CLOSE with an O/U of 9 or higher. That is it. The 5/2 is confusing a lot of people on here, and should probably have it's own thread for that reason. Different criteria are used to derive plays, some similar to Rizz's, and some not, which makes it a system of it's own, and should be treated that way.
These are the actual rules, but regardless of that, many of the plays will not reflect that because personal handicapping plays a part, as well as 10 different people posting plays that aren't official. Nobody wants to let the guy run his thread, but rather, rush to their computers to be the first one to post plays, in someone else's thread, half of which are posted incorrectly or not plays at all. Besides that, I've seen absolutely nothing impressive about this system yet.Last edited by Wallco99; 07-06-12, 04:51 PM.Comment -
Wow..thank you Wallco99 !!!
It seems that you have a good grasp of the "official" system rules.
You also seem to have a good pulse on the inadequacies of human nature as well.
I've got the 5/2 down pat.
It was the "Filtered" plays I was having trouble with.
Very much THANKS for going through all of that for me...
Much appreciated !!!Comment -
Wallco where is your "MLB system"
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if Arz was an A bet it doesn't matter what the line is for the B bet. As long as the first game in the 3 game set is met.
ARZ is not a 5/2 bet cause of the closing line of 8.5.
And Wallco stop being so dramatic. "rarely are plays correct" ... 95% or plays posted in this thread are correct plays. I would love for you to prove that "half" of the plays are incorrect...
And No the 5/2 does not need a separate thread for the plays to be posted. People just need to understand the 5/2 plays are based on closing lines where as on3 plays are based on opening lines.
I posted the -140 because in the beginning of season we kept an eye on plays that opened at -140 or higher. the ones that moved higher we counted some of them as plays. Same thing for those that opened at -145 but took a 20cent drop and proved to be losing plays majority of the time.
Not every system has to be a blind system! We should be thankful for the loose interpretation of this system because Long run it does make money. We do not have to be stuck in the past where once a system is invented; that there is a magic rule where the system can not be fixed or tweaked... similar to the JM MLB system where JM is adding new rules every year it seems to the system to cover up losses.
Overall, wallco I think your being a dick and need to get off your high horse. Let people run the thread as they please. I do not believe the title of this thread is RIZZ's home game chase...Last edited by J.M. Disciple; 07-06-12, 06:11 PM.Comment -
Exactly. I know when to stop. Last year was absolutely brutal, but most years leading up to that were awesome. I will see how it did at the end of the year, as well as implement the few changes I came up with, and see where I am at. I am currently playing two systems that I came up with. One is absolutely kicking ass, and one I am not 100% sure about, even though it is up a few units. I have to make one small adjustment in that one and I think it will be almost as good as the other one. One is a pure +money system, the other is heavy juice like this one. Don't like the big money lines, but this is the one that did +105 units last year. I am also playing a low line system that I came up with two years ago, that is currently up 9 units, but the last two seasons was +66, and +58.Last edited by Wallco99; 07-06-12, 06:56 PM.Comment -
That's right Wallco.Comment -
You really don't know the success of the system other than the 1 1/2 years it was played before this season. How do you know these weren't the only two winning seasons ever? This system cannot be backtested because lists of opening lines are unfindable. Dick or not, the plays need to be posted correctly, so let him run his thread. You have three or four different people posting plays, and other guys saying "why isn't this a play" and one guy saying "yes, that should be a play" while another guy is saying "No, that's not a play", and mentioning possible 5/2, filter, and regular plays based on lines generated on websites other than the ones on3 and limit use, and you wonder why almost EVERYONE is confused. Don't throw Rizz in my face, I don't even know him. But anytime anyone ever asks what the hell the rules are, someone just says to go read post #3, instead of just answering the damn question. AND POST #3 SAYS TO GO READ RIZZ'S SYSTEM ON COVERS.COM. If that's all the info you are going to share with anyone, then run the system completely different, how can you not possibly have confusion. I am not bashing the system, I do understand it, and I am playing along. But too many chefs are ruining this stew.if Arz was an A bet it doesn't matter what the line is for the B bet. As long as the first game in the 3 game set is met.
ARZ is not a 5/2 bet cause of the closing line of 8.5.
And Wallco stop being so dramatic. "rarely are plays correct" ... 95% or plays posted in this thread are correct plays. I would love for you to prove that "half" of the plays are incorrect...
And No the 5/2 does not need a separate thread for the plays to be posted. People just need to understand the 5/2 plays are based on closing lines where as on3 plays are based on opening lines.
I posted the -140 because in the beginning of season we kept an eye on plays that opened at -140 or higher. the ones that moved higher we counted some of them as plays. Same thing for those that opened at -145 but took a 20cent drop and proved to be losing plays majority of the time.
Not every system has to be a blind system! We should be thankful for the loose interpretation of this system because Long run it does make money. We do not have to be stuck in the past where once a system is invented; that there is a magic rule where the system can not be fixed or tweaked... similar to the JM MLB system where JM is adding new rules every year it seems to the system to cover up losses.
Overall, wallco I think your being a dick and need to get off your high horse. Let people run the thread as they please. I do not believe the title of this thread is RIZZ's home game chase...Comment -
Wallco jealous that his system "isn't done yet."
Ha.Comment -
Do you have it posted somewhere?
As far as this system goes.....You're right.....one yr it made 164 units...60 last year and unless things change it's gonna take a major dump this year....Backtesting is impossible because only place I know where to find opening lines is scoresandodds.com...and those are different than 5dimes which are the ones to be used. The limit only has tried to help, and by posting his 5/2 method he has helped substancially for those playing this system soley. The problem I see is that people are to lazy to read through the thread then want to know the answers...spend a little time reading first, if there in that big of a hurry to lose why play a system blindly....just throw your money on a team and cross your fingers.....And honestly I think the only reason people are posting plays is to help for those unsure...If they don't know what the plays are without on3 posting them and they can't log into 5dimes and look or check the odds board at covers maybe they shouldn't be wagering. And I'm not trying to be sarcastic but relying on 1 person to do all is lazy....On3 posts play for recording keeping.Last edited by chound; 07-06-12, 07:57 PM.Comment
