on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

[darkmatter117]

What it looks like to me is that we based our decision on whether LAA game was a play on one book whose opening line was premature and did not accurately reflect the line-ups or some other significant condition. Most of the other books agreed around midmorning gameday that -155 was a fair opening line for the game -- that is, once whatever important information that was absent the day before became available.

The good news is we've got two 5/2 plays today. I'll leave the details to thelimit.

[on3]

if you played LAA, good. but it is not being counted towards the record here.

UPDATED for 06/23/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 75-8-0; Profit: -12.25
Filtered System: 24-0-0; Profit: +17.5
5/2 chase: 5-0-0; profit: +19 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 50-40; 15-9
Game 2 (B) win = 24-12; 5-2; 3-2
Game 3 (C) win = 4-8; 2-0; 2-0

RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 6/23/2012
x-x-75-74
49-49-86-85
76-76-76-76

New Line Filtered
x-x-38-39

REGULAR FOR 06/23/2012
CINCY -210/-105 to win 85 - play RL
BOSTON -140 to win 86

Filtered
CINCY to win 38 - play RL
BOSTON to win 39

5/2
CINCY to win 100 (see if thelimit posts the 5/2 plays if the RL applies here or not)
BOSTON to win 100

[Wallco99]

I guess Covers.com when they list "opening lines" for 5 dimes at -155 does not mean they are correct. I believe we discussed this in the past wallco where you said an opening line is an opening line and doesn't matter where you get the info from. I guess covers and sportsodds is not consistent with opening lines of different books.

Yes, but the one I quoted had an earlier time stamp, which means that one was out before the other one. OPEN means FIRST.

[Wallco99]

It never concerns you that a pitching change might move the line well out of the qualifications of the system? I thought you liked to follow the rules to the letter.

Which is why I wait til close to game time to place my bets, and not run out first thing in the morning like a junkie with a new needle.

[stevex]

Lets make some money today fellas!

[on3]

With no update from thelimit, I'm playing Cincy 5/2 on the RL

[stpirate]

With no update from thelimit, I'm playing Cincy 5/2 on the RL

Could you direct me to the 5/2 criteria? I searched through the first few pages and the links but couldn't find it. Thanks in advance.

[darkmatter117]

It's post 790.

[Wallco99]

Not that it really matters to me, because I don't play it anyway, but why wouldn't Boston have been a 5/2 play as well today? It met all the requirements. I realize you've been gone for a few weeks, but accuracy is important if you are going to jump back in after your hiatus.

[thelimit0310]

Cincy and Boston were plays as they were the only 2 that met the criteria. For future reference RL is never taken.

Another +10 units for the 5/2, congrats to everyone who played!

[jcygts6]

Nice.. Looks like the system is picking up

[Wallco99]

Cincy and Boston were plays as they were the only 2 that met the criteria. For future reference RL is never taken.

Another +10 units for the 5/2, congrats to everyone who played!

That was a bad way to put it, I apologize.

[nato3713]

lol you know the criteria, quit expecting to get spoon fed.

[thelimit0310]

You kidding me Wallco? Not only is the criteria posted for everyone to see (here) but I told On3 that I would not be cluttering his thread with my play posts. I only posted the past 2 weeks because he was away. Anyway, it seems On3 has added them to his posts and has done a great job so far. I am hiding nothing and if he wants me to do all the posting for 5/2 in his thread then I have no problem with that.

For future reference - If an A bet for the normal system loses and closed at -145 or higher with an o/u of 9 or higher, then the subsequent B and C bets are 5/2 plays. The RL is never taken.

This is all outlined in my play post and anyone else who wants to imply that I am only choosing the games that won should go back and read.

[allidoiswin89]

I guess no one is officially posting the 5/2 bet thing and we will only be hearing about them after the wins.

Wow you have changed. You use to rip people who would say things like that and now you're 1 of them complaining about it.

[Wallco99]

You kidding me Wallco? Not only is the criteria posted for everyone to see (here) but I told On3 that I would not be cluttering his thread with my play posts. I only posted the past 2 weeks because he was away. Anyway, it seems On3 has added them to his posts and has done a great job so far. I am hiding nothing and if he wants me to do all the posting for 5/2 in his thread then I have no problem with that.

For future reference - If an A bet for the normal system loses and closed at -145 or higher with an o/u of 9 or higher, then the subsequent B and C bets are 5/2 plays. The RL is never taken.

This is all outlined in my play post and anyone else who wants to imply that I am only choosing the games that won should go back and read.

Sorry, perhaps I didn't phrase that as well as I could have, that was a bad way to put it. I didn't say it for that reason, he mentioned the one play and skipped the other, just wondering why he didn't play both. As I said, I don't play it, so I don't need it anyway, but even though the criteria was posted 1300 posts back, those who do need the spoon feeding probably thought Boston wasn't a play for some reason because it wasn't mentioned when Cincinnati was. I agree with you, I don't think the plays really need to be posted until after the games are done anyway, but if one of the plays does get mentioned, then they probably all should be, just to avoid confusion. And the guy with the "spoon fed" comment really needs to pay attention to the actual words that are typed in these posts, maybe then he'll realize that not only don't I need the play posted, but I also mentioned it was a play yesterday when it was overlooked.

[thelimit0310]

I wasn't around yesterday to check the forum or I would have made that correction myself. By the time I got here On3's post showed both Cincy and Boston so it seems he was able to make the correction himself in time. I will be more diligent in making sure the plays are correct in the future.

[J.M. Disciple]

Good morning emotional people of this thread. Hope everyone has a wonderful sunday LOL Lets not start any big b1tch fits in this thread. I am sure a lot of people knew they were plays but are afraid of posting cause if they do it wrong they hear 20 people bitch them out. Anyone can post the plays every day as some do for the regular system. Just keep it short and simple if you do, but mostly give on3 to do his thing first and if he leaves some thing out dont be afraid to chime in.

4 units away from being in the black

[on3]

Not that it really matters to me, because I don't play it anyway, but why wouldn't Boston have been a 5/2 play as well today? It met all the requirements. I realize you've been gone for a few weeks, but accuracy is important if you are going to jump back in after your hiatus.

It was, it was in the daily post. I just clarified the CINCY play, but BOSTON was already published.

[on3]

i updated the filtered units. with 26 wins we are +26 units. since a labby "carries the losses" on its lines, once the line(s) is cleared all units should be recovered. since the filtered is clear, all units should be recovered and 26 wins = +26 units.

UPDATED for 06/24/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 77-8-0; Profit: -3.75
Filtered System: 26-0-0; Profit: +26
5/2 chase: 7-0-0; profit: +29 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 50-40; 15-9
Game 2 (B) win = 26-12; 7-2; 5-2
Game 3 (C) win = 4-8; 2-0; 2-0

RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 6/24/2012
50-50-45-44
39-39-30-30
56-56-56-56

New Line Filtered
x-x-x-x

REGULAR FOR 06/24/2012
no plays

Filtered
no plays

5/2
no plays

[J.M. Disciple]

i updated the filtered units. with 26 wins we are +26 units. since a labby "carries the losses" on its lines, once the line(s) is cleared all units should be recovered. since the filtered is clear, all units should be recovered and 26 wins = +26 units.

i really dont understand how you get this unless your inflating the numbers as you go.

For example:

So labby goes to the C bet.

Series 1)
Starting Labby line: 10-10-10-10
A: lose $20
New line: 10-10-20-20
B: Lose $20
New Line: 20-20-20-20
C: win $20
New Line: 20-20-20-X

Next series (2)
A: win $20
New line: 20-20

Next Series(3):
A: Lose $20
New line 20-20-20
B: win $20

Final Line 20-20
So with wins / losses you have: -$20, -$20, +$20, +$20, -$20, +$20

Total Profit: $0 so your even after 6 bets and 3 series with 2 units in play, so say next two series both win on the A bets clearing the line. Now you have 5 series wins and 2 units of profit. I do not think changing the unit count to equal the record is correct.


I stated this earlier. You have about 28 units in play right now. Lets say you hit a 12 game winning streak and clear all your numbers you would be roughly 25 units in the black, but by that point you would have 89 wins! How come you would not be up 89 units in profit if you are using the same logic for the filtered system?

[chound]

JMD,

I think you're misundestanding on3's post. A single labby carries itself such as a martingale. A 3 line labby would if every line was cleared as well. For instance.


Game 1

10-10-10-10 . Lose on first game -20, add loss to line

New line 10-10-20-20 Win of 30 minus loss of 20 on first game.....$10 profit

Game 2

x-10-20-x lose on 1st game again, -30

x-40-20-x lose on 2nd game, -60 units

x-100-20-x win on 3rd game +120 - 90 from first 2 games of series = 30 profit.....

2 series won with a profit of 10 and 30 to clear the line.....Total profit 40.

The lines were not inflated....this is how a single line labby should be managed

In your example you bet 2 sets on numbers from line A in game 1

10-10-10-10.....so you lost 20

Your new line
10-10-20-20.....which is correct or it could have been 15-15-15-15

But on your 2 game in the series you only bet 1 set of numbers when in actuality you should have bet 2 sets again. This is why your labby wouldn't balance out correctly. If you don't want to risk the higher amounts later in the chase then lower your starting units or you'll always find yourself chasing your tail even sometimes with a nice win streak. If you bet and lose 20 on the first bet you cant bet just to win 20 again.

Your bets should have looked like this

LINE A 10-10-10-10
LINE B 10-10-10-10
LINE C 10-10-10-10

LIne A 10-10-10-10....Lose 20

Now Line B after lose

10-10-20-20....lose 30

Now line C after lose

10-10-25-25.....win 35

NEW LINES

A 10-10-10-10
B 10-10-20-20
C x-10-25-x

When I started I was chasing 120 units....I lost 15 units with a C bet win, now I'm chasing 135 (120 originally in play 15 that was lost on first chase) units even with a win.

Say we have 3 bets the next time we play and win all 3 on the first bet.....I like to make my first bets solely on line A....If I win more than line A I subract the winnings and reduce line B....

I bet to win 20 3x's for the first game so the new lines would look like this after the wins

Line A x-x-x-x
Line B x-x-20-20
Line C x-10-25-x

Now I'm 45 units to the good and still have 75 in play....Originally we had 120. Since I have 6 sets available on line A & B I'll add 60 units into play and rebalance my lines.

New lines

Line A 10-10-10-10
Line B 15-15-15-15
Line C x-10-25-x

If you look at how I've managed my labby and say I win the next 5 series on the first bet just using whats in play I'll pick up 135 units plus the 45 from the previous 4 series. A total of $180 which is everything I've had in play from the start ($120) plus the ($60) I added in 9 series (20 a chase). I know some smartazz is gonna say if you have enough units you'll never lose but that is why when using a labby correctly you should have 150 units from my experiences to get through a few bad losing streaks. Just a helpful piece of advice for those new to using a labby, If I lose a C bet I divide what I lost by every set of numbers in play and and rebalance accordingly.

For instance

Line A 10-10-20-x
Line B 30-30-30-x
Line C 50-50-60-60.......Lose a C bet of 110....I divide it by 10 (sets in play and add 11 to each)

New Lines

Line A 21-21-31-x
Line B 41-41-41-x
Line C 61-61-71-71

Sorry to clutter the thread with this but just trying to explain to JMD why all the units are not in play if you don't manage correctly

[chound]

I stated this earlier. You have about 28 units in play right now. Lets say you hit a 12 game winning streak and clear all your numbers you would be roughly 25 units in the black, but by that point you would have 89 wins! How come you would not be up 89 units in profit if you are using the same logic for the filtered system?

The reason we wouldn't be 89 units in profit is because when we hit the losing streak instead of playing to sets of numbers together from each line we only played 1....which in turn was only half the profit as it should have been. Also when on3 shifted the numbers to balance them to keep the plays managable he didn't add 10 for each set on new numbers.....for instance

When they looked like this

x-60-50-x
x-x-70-x
90-90-85-85......You have 530 units in play

his new lines looked like this
30-30-25-25
45-45-70-45
45-45-85-40.....still 530 units in play

But since he added 5 new sets of numbers there should have been 580 units in play.....10 for each new set....He didn't add those to inflate the numbers. He was trying to keep the lines managable.

[Hunner24]

The reason that the number was off is because JMD posted a filtered play for less than the $20 normal unit size. So those people that follow the posts EXACTLY would have one win that resulted in less than a full unit won.

Edit: The play was on 6/17. Here is it: #23 ARZ (-161) to win $16.34

So, technically, the exact posted numbers should be equal +25.817u. But in backtests, it would be +26u.

[on3]

UPDATED for 06/25/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 77-8-0; Profit: -3.75
Filtered System: 26-0-0; Profit: +26
5/2 chase: 7-0-0; profit: +29 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 50-40; 15-9
Game 2 (B) win = 26-12; 7-2; 5-2
Game 3 (C) win = 4-8; 2-0; 2-0

LABBY LINES FOR 6/25/2012
50-50-45-44
39-39-30-30
56-56-56-56

New Line Filtered
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 06/25/2012
HOUSTON -150 to win 45
NY YANKEES -168 to win 50
BOSTON -150 to win 50
TEXAS -140 to win 44 (as long it stays above -140, it is a play)

Filtered
NYY to win 20
BOSTON to win 20
TEXAS to win 20 (as long it stays above -140, it is a play)

5/2
no plays

[J.M. Disciple]

The reason that the number was off is because JMD posted a filtered play for less than the $20 normal unit size. So those people that follow the posts EXACTLY would have one win that resulted in less than a full unit won.

Edit: The play was on 6/17. Here is it: #23 ARZ (-161) to win $16.34

So, technically, the exact posted numbers should be equal +25.817u. But in backtests, it would be +26u.

I believe I had the unit count at 22 units when On3 came back. He changed it to 26 units. That $16 bet instead of $20 bet does not make a 4 unit difference. The main difference as Chound made very clear in his post above is that we were betting to win 1 # instead of two #s so the #s come out skewed. Also number 2 difference is that when we divide out #s we were not adding an extra set to keep the unit count up to par. Just part of balancing out the lines and keeping them manageable.

Also chound I clearly understood why we were not up same number of units as we we have wins, but i wanted my example to be similar to On'3s strategy since he bets 1 # so often to keep risk around 5 units or less. I appreciate the nice clear break down though! Great advice my 2pts (even though I knew the stuff) awarded. Very helpful and good fundamental reminder to me and others.

Keep up the good post.

Good LUCK Everyone
JMD

[chound]

Thanks JMD,

Wasn't sure how you run your labby, cause everyone seems to run them different. Just showing how I run mine. Only thing I left out is I use 5 sets of numbers per line and when only 1 set is left on a line I use the set plus a set from the next line for my bet. If the one remaining set gets to large I'll add 1 or 2 more sets of 10, then divide the number by 2 or 3 to balance it out.

[MikeyFingers]

Potential 5/2 Plays for Tuesday, 6/26/12

Monday - 6/25 Lines
NY Yankees -168 (9.5) v. Cleveland
Boston Red Sox -154 (10.5) v. Toronto

If any of the 2 bold teams loses today Monday, 6/25 they will become A bets in the 5/2 system tomorrow.

[nitsuj378]

Washington is on the road.

[on3]

houston no play

[on3]

sorry for the late update on HOU, but that game is around -120 right now and it falls out of qualification.

[J.M. Disciple]

REGULAR FOR 06/25/2012
HOUSTON -150 to win 45
NY YANKEES -168 to win 50
BOSTON -150 to win 50
TEXAS -140 to win 44 (as long it stays above -140, it is a play)




Just checked back on the thread and see HOU as a no play New lines for me anyways so small loss.

[stpirate]

Potential 5/2 Plays for Tuesday, 6/26/12

Monday - 6/25 Lines
NY Yankees -168 (9.5) v. Cleveland
Boston Red Sox -154 (10.5) v. Toronto

If any of the 2 bold teams loses today Monday, 6/25 they will become A bets in the 5/2 system tomorrow.

Texas would (will) also be a 5/2 play as well correct?

[MikeyFingers]

Yes TEXAS closed at -146 and 11 and lost Monday.

Tuesday 6-26 5/2 plays
RED SOX -165
TEXAS -175

both A bets

[on3]

Yes TEXAS closed at -146 and 11 and lost Monday.

Tuesday 6-26 5/2 plays
RED SOX -165
TEXAS -175

both A bets

to avoid confusion, the only people permitted to post plays in this thread are myself and thelimit. exceptions are when others are ASKED to post. please dont post in my thread and wait for the official post. thanks.