on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

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  • KennyM10
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 02-14-10
    • 788

    #1821
    Originally posted by 1gamer
    I nominate KennyM to run the thread when On3 is gone...


    Seriously though, I nominate JMD
    I do not lie enough to run this scam.
    Comment
    • oklahoma
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 11-22-10
      • 602

      #1822
      LAA is a B bet.
      Boston, Detroit and Washington are official plays.
      Boston, Detroit are also filtered plays.
      Cincinnati and Milwaukee opened a few cents below -145 but are now over. Chances are on3 would grade those as plays as well.
      Comment
      • Wallco99
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 01-01-11
        • 7261

        #1823
        Originally posted by oklahoma
        LAA is a B bet.
        Boston, Detroit and Washington are official plays.
        Boston, Detroit are also filtered plays.
        Cincinnati and Milwaukee opened a few cents below -145 but are now over. Chances are on3 would grade those as plays as well.
        Actual system would say NO, regardless of how on3 would JUDGE it.
        Comment
        • oklahoma
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 11-22-10
          • 602

          #1824
          Originally posted by Wallco99
          Actual system would say NO, regardless of how on3 would JUDGE it.
          Thats great. "Boston, Detroit and Washington are official plays."
          Notice I didnt include Cin/Mil in that sentence. And if I recall correctly on3 stated he's used 5dimes to determine some opening lines in the past, which would indeed make Mil official. Cin opened at -150 at Bookmaker so whos to say.
          Itching to post the official write-up yourself are we?
          Comment
          • J.M. Disciple
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 11-16-10
            • 5154

            #1825
            I am leaving it as I posted it. If you lost 1 unit on LAA because they opened above -145 but dropped below -145 then just distribute that loss over your A and B line and make it back today. There are 4 plays today so take your loss from LAA and add it "to win" total of todays bets.

            "WE" are betting to win $48 I believe on 4 games today so divide LAA loss by 4 and say you lost $50 add a extra $11 or whatever it is to the 4 games today.
            Comment
            • Wallco99
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 01-01-11
              • 7261

              #1826
              Originally posted by oklahoma
              Thats great. "Boston, Detroit and Washington are official plays."
              Notice I didnt include Cin/Mil in that sentence. And if I recall correctly on3 stated he's used 5dimes to determine some opening lines in the past, which would indeed make Mil official. Cin opened at -150 at Bookmaker so whos to say.
              Itching to post the official write-up yourself are we?
              Not at all, just want to see it correct, and with 5 guys doing it, it never will be.
              Comment
              • J.M. Disciple
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 11-16-10
                • 5154

                #1827
                Also want to note my lines are totally different then On3's I am just trying to help him out while he is gone. If I make a mistake please chirp in and feel free to correct me. I believe the reshuffle and averaging out A / B over 8 #s was a good play for this system as agreed upon by many in this thread.

                Going to leave it as it is and if you do not like it then, just continue to run your own lines. Either way it will turn a profit by the time On3 comes back.

                Good Luck to ALL
                JMD

                PS
                Favorites usually do pretty well in June. IF we clear lines A and B over next couple of days,

                Do you all think we should start reshuffling line C up to A and B? Average out line C over 12 #s once A / B are cleared?

                It would reduce the profits of this system some, but keep the bet size relatively low and still put the system in the black.
                Comment
                • J.M. Disciple
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 11-16-10
                  • 5154

                  #1828
                  Wallco, i value your opinion highly on what plays should actually count. It may be too late now to correct it, but do you think I listed the plays as they should be? We can agree to disagree on the bet amounts, but as long as the plays are correct via the system GUIDELINES.
                  Comment
                  • Alki
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 08-09-10
                    • 143

                    #1829
                    Would you mind listing the four plays and $ amounts for clarity and for the record?
                    Thank you.
                    Comment
                    • Mrscofield25
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-23-11
                      • 2483

                      #1830
                      JMD:

                      FILTERED

                      Detroit -147
                      Boston -148

                      Regular

                      Detroit -147
                      Boston -148
                      Washington -148
                      Milwaukee -152

                      And for those who played LAA yesterday, they will have a B bet on them today.

                      This is how I would do it today. CIN is NO PLAY. They opened at -142. Odds are based on 5dimes opening odds.
                      Comment
                      • Wallco99
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 01-01-11
                        • 7261

                        #1831
                        Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
                        Wallco, i value your opinion highly on what plays should actually count. It may be too late now to correct it, but do you think I listed the plays as they should be? We can agree to disagree on the bet amounts, but as long as the plays are correct via the system GUIDELINES.
                        Honestly my man, you can list them however you wish, just be the only one to do it and be CONSISTENET. Since we are not mindreaders of the way on3 plays and disqualifies certain series, I say, until he gets back, just play the system the exact way it was designed, that way there is no confusion and no personal opinion involved. Then when he gets back, he can run it the way it was before, with his added personal criteria, which whether we want to believe it or not, we don't fully understand. The official criteria as far as I know are as follows:

                        1. Team must be on at least a three game home series.
                        2. The team must OPEN at -145 or greater.
                        3. Once a team opens at -145 or greater, to still be a play, it must remain above -140 at close. (It can drop below that at some point during the day, but by close must be back up to at least -140.
                        4. If a team opens below -145, and creeps up above -145, this is not an official play.
                        5. The filtered plays must be at o/u 9 or greater by CLOSE, and must have OPENED at -145 or greater. (If a team has an o/u of 9.5, opened at -142, and crept up to -145, this is not a play because team didn't qualify at -145.

                        That's basically it. I read through extensive pages of Rizz's thread to get this info, I believe I have it right. If not, maybe Rizz could clarify. I know that on3 plays some games that go up from -140 to -150, and disqualifies some games that drop from -170 to -150. But since this is not in the rules, and we don't know his criteria for running his system his way, we shouldn't even F around with the handicapping aspect and just stick to the few rules that are actually posted.

                        As far as the labby, run it however you see fit, that is your call since you are doing all the work. This may be the time when the individual player actually has to learn how to run his/her own labby anyway. What you post should only be a guide line for the followers, and not necessarily the "10 commandments" of labby wagering.

                        I am by no means trying to take over this thread, but instead of sitting on here arguing all day yesterday, I actually spent time reading the entire thread of this system's creator, trying to get some answers to try to help us all in on3's absence. My comments about everyone and their mother posting plays was made because I know how cluttered and out of control other threads have gotten when too many people try to "help". I am absolutely not trying to offend anyone or come off as a know it all, but a lot of us were just following along in here and now the time has come that we need to better understand what we should be wagering on. With a little bit of organization and consistency, this should run very smooth until he gets back. Unless asked, I will not post any more comments on what I think the plays should be, based on official rules. Thanks everyone, and good luck. LAA should have been a play yesterday because they opened at -145, and despite being at -135 for a portion of the day, they did close above -140 (they were at -150).
                        Last edited by Wallco99; 06-05-12, 06:06 PM.
                        Comment
                        • Wallco99
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 01-01-11
                          • 7261

                          #1832
                          Originally posted by Mrscofield25
                          JMD:

                          FILTERED

                          Detroit -147
                          Boston -148

                          Regular

                          Detroit -147
                          Boston -148
                          Washington -148
                          Milwaukee -152

                          And for those who played LAA yesterday, they will have a B bet on them today.

                          This is how I would do it today. CIN is NO PLAY. They opened at -142. Odds are based on 5dimes opening odds.
                          I am playing the same plays, with the exception of Boston (filtered) since they are currently at o/u 8.5 at 5Dimes, unless it goes up to 9 by game time.
                          Comment
                          • Mrscofield25
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-23-11
                            • 2483

                            #1833
                            Yes, I just noticed it. Thanks. And interesting reading as always. I hope you soon will start to post your new baseball system, if it will be actual. Hey by the way Wallco. I did send you a pm one and a half month ago but you never answered it. I just assume you didn't want to answer.

                            GL all.
                            Comment
                            • Wallco99
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 01-01-11
                              • 7261

                              #1834
                              Originally posted by Mrscofield25
                              Yes, I just noticed it. Thanks. And interesting reading as always. I hope you soon will start to post your new baseball system, if it will be actual. Hey by the way Wallco. I did send you a pm one and a half month ago but you never answered it. I just assume you didn't want to answer.

                              GL all.
                              Send it again, I don't remember that one. That was about the time of my personal situation.
                              Comment
                              • Mrscofield25
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-23-11
                                • 2483

                                #1835
                                Originally posted by Wallco99
                                Send it again, I don't remember that one. That was about the time of my personal situation.
                                Yes I will do that later.
                                Comment
                                • J.M. Disciple
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 11-16-10
                                  • 5154

                                  #1836
                                  I work through out the day, so I will not be able to pay attention to closing lines of the game. If anyone has a problem with it, starting tomorrow I will only be listing plays that open at -145 or higher. Today because most bets are already in and I do not feel like editing everything and messing up peoples lines I will leave it as it is. Tomorrow is a new day and will base it off my post.

                                  Any future series as i said I will only be playing the opening lines at -145 or higher. Wether it drops or goes up I will only consider the opening lines unless someone else wants to jump in and volunteer to run the thread. Be my guest

                                  I will list the plays the night before and if someone has a problem with one of the plays just let me know. I will then post the official plays with bet amounts the following day.
                                  Comment
                                  • Mrscofield25
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-23-11
                                    • 2483

                                    #1837
                                    Originally posted by Wallco99
                                    Send it again, I don't remember that one. That was about the time of my personal situation.
                                    PM sent.
                                    Comment
                                    • 1gamer
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 02-09-11
                                      • 723

                                      #1838
                                      Originally posted by KennyM10
                                      I do not lie enough to run this scam.
                                      Well if you change your mind, let us know little buddy...
                                      Comment
                                      • J.M. Disciple
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 11-16-10
                                        • 5154

                                        #1839
                                        Originally posted by J.M. Disciple


                                        UPDATED
                                        System(s) record Chase:
                                        Regular system: 57-5-0; Profit: -1 units
                                        Filtered System: 14-0-0; Profit: +14 units
                                        5/2 chase: 2-0-0; profit: +10 units

                                        Pending:
                                        6/5
                                        #64 Detriot -150 o/u 9
                                        #65 Boston -160 o/u 9
                                        #66 Washington -155
                                        #67 Cincinnati -145

                                        Records:
                                        Game 1 (A) win = 34-28; 9-5

                                        Game 2 (B) win = 21-7; 5-0; 2-0
                                        Game 3 (C) win = 2-4; 0-0

                                        New Lines
                                        24-24-24-24
                                        24-24-24-24
                                        55-72-76-98

                                        Labby Line (filter)
                                        10-10-10-10

                                        FILTERED
                                        #15 Detriot -150 o/u 9 To win $20
                                        #16 Boston -160 o/u 9 To win $20
                                        Regular
                                        #64 Detriot -150 o/u 9 .......to win 48
                                        #65 Boston -160 o/u 9 .......to win 48
                                        #66 Washington -155 .......to win 48
                                        #67 Cincinnati -145 .......to win 48
                                        bump and edited for nicer format hopefully. I am still counting boston as official since I already had it posted. You may handle it on your own records as you wish. If on3 wants to not count it when he gets back thats up to him; for now Im going to leave it like this.
                                        Comment
                                        • J.M. Disciple
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 11-16-10
                                          • 5154

                                          #1840

                                          OLD Labby Lines
                                          24-24-24-24
                                          24-24-24-24
                                          55-72-76-98

                                          Shuffled Labby LInes
                                          24-24-X-X +36 + 38.40 +34.80
                                          24-24-24-24 +36 +38.40 +34.80
                                          55-72-76-98

                                          *** Took the loss from each game and divided it over line 1 and line 2. Crossed off two numbers from line 1 since washington won. I took the total of each line and averaged each total line out by 4. ***

                                          Final Labby Lines for 6/6/2012
                                          39.30 - 39.30 -39.30 -39.30
                                          51.30 - 51.30 - 51.30 - 51.30
                                          55.00 - 72.00 - 76.00 - 98.00

                                          Labby Line (filter)
                                          10-10-10-10-30 - 32
                                          New Line Filtered
                                          25.50 - 25.50 - 25.50 - 25.50

                                          FILTERED
                                          #15 Detriot -150 o/u 9 To win $20 ........ lose $30
                                          #16 Boston -160 o/u 9 To win $20 ......... Lose $32
                                          Regular
                                          #64 Detriot -150 o/u 9 .......to win 48............ Lose $72
                                          #65 Boston -160 o/u 9 .......to win 48............. Lose $76.80
                                          #66 Washington -155 .......to win 48 ..............Win $48
                                          #67 Cincinnati -145 .......to win 48................ lose $69.60
                                          Comment
                                          • J.M. Disciple
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 11-16-10
                                            • 5154

                                            #1841
                                            UPDATED
                                            System(s) record Chase:
                                            Regular system: 57-5-0; Profit: -9.5 units
                                            Filtered System: 14-0-0; Profit: +11.4 units
                                            5/2 chase: 2-0-0; profit: +10 units

                                            Records:
                                            Game 1 (A) win = 35-31; 9-7

                                            Game 2 (B) win = 21-7; 5-0; 2-0
                                            Game 3 (C) win = 2-4; 0-0


                                            Date 06/06/2012


                                            Final Labby Lines for 6/6/2012
                                            39.30 - 39.30 -39.30 -39.30
                                            51.30 - 51.30 - 51.30 - 51.30
                                            55.00 - 72.00 - 76.00 - 98.00

                                            New Line Filtered
                                            25.50 - 25.50 - 25.50 - 25.50


                                            Filtered
                                            #15 Detriot (B) -155 o/u 9 To win $51
                                            #16 Boston (B) -164 o/u 9 To win $51
                                            Regular
                                            #64 Detriot (B) -155 o/u 9 .......to win $51.30
                                            #65 Boston (B) -164 o/u 9 .......to win $51.30
                                            #67 Cincinnati (B) -180 .......to win $51.30
                                            Comment
                                            • J.M. Disciple
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 11-16-10
                                              • 5154

                                              #1842
                                              On3 seems to have the record a little bit off from what I just noticed. He shows 57-5 but only has 4 C bet losses.... Also I want to note I have not been following how 5/2 works and do not really care to keep track of it. If someone wants to take care of 5/2 it would be appreciated.

                                              Looks like 5 total bets tomorrow roughly 4 units to win 2.5 on each. I manage the labby slightly different then On3 in terms of averaging out the lines, but I feel this is the easiest way especially when there are this many losses in 1 day. The main point is that all the money loss was distributed over the lines and I kept it at 4 #s on each line.

                                              Ill check back tomorrow for any discrepancies. Pretty sure it all works out the same in the end though.

                                              Good Luck 6/6/12
                                              JMD

                                              PS
                                              Next new series starts on June 8th
                                              Last edited by J.M. Disciple; 06-06-12, 12:01 AM.
                                              Comment
                                              • Alki
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 08-09-10
                                                • 143

                                                #1843
                                                JMD:
                                                Thanks for all of your efforts out of the bullpen.
                                                Appreciated.
                                                Comment
                                                • thelimit0310
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-24-11
                                                  • 1233

                                                  #1844
                                                  I can do the work for 5/2 while On3 is away.

                                                  There is one play today on Detroit. Bet 1 means it is the first bet of the 2 bet series.

                                                  5/2 for 6/6/12 - Detroit ML Bet 1

                                                  5/2 currently+10u
                                                  Last edited by thelimit0310; 06-06-12, 11:52 AM.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • J.M. Disciple
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 11-16-10
                                                    • 5154

                                                    #1845
                                                    Det & BOS
                                                    Comment
                                                    • J.M. Disciple
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 11-16-10
                                                      • 5154

                                                      #1846
                                                      UPDATED
                                                      System(s) record Chase:
                                                      Regular system: 57-5-0; Profit: -15 units
                                                      Filtered System: 14-0-0; Profit: +3.3 units
                                                      5/2 chase: 2-0-0; profit: +10 units

                                                      Records:
                                                      Game 1 (A) win = 35-31; 9-7
                                                      Game 2 (B) win = 22-7; 5-2; 2-0
                                                      Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-0

                                                      Date 06/06/2012

                                                      Final Labby Lines for 6/6/2012
                                                      39.30 - 39.30 -39.30 -39.30
                                                      x - 51.30 - 51.30 - 51.30 + 79.52 + 84.14
                                                      55.00 - 72.00 - 76.00 - 98.00

                                                      New Line Filtered
                                                      25.50 - 25.50 - 25.50 - 25.50 + 79.05 + 83.64

                                                      Filtered
                                                      #15 Detriot (B) -155 o/u 9 To win $51 Lose 79.05
                                                      #16 Boston (B) -164 o/u 9 To win $51 Lose 83.64
                                                      Regular
                                                      #64 Detriot (B) -155 o/u 9 .......to win $51.30 Lose 79.52
                                                      #65 Boston (B) -164 o/u 9 .......to win $51.30 Lose $83.64
                                                      #67 Cincinnati (B) -180 .......to win $51.30 Win $51.30
                                                      Comment
                                                      • stevex
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 05-02-10
                                                        • 5122

                                                        #1847
                                                        Should hit 1 out of those 2 C bets for sure. Thanks for updating while on3 is away J.M.!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • J.M. Disciple
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 11-16-10
                                                          • 5154

                                                          #1848
                                                          UPDATED for 06/07/2012
                                                          System(s) record Chase:
                                                          Regular system: 59-5-0; Profit: -15 units
                                                          Filtered System: 14-0-0; Profit: +3.3 units
                                                          5/2 chase: 2-0-0; profit: +10 units

                                                          Records:
                                                          Game 1 (A) win = 35-31; 9-7
                                                          Game 2 (B) win = 22-7; 5-2; 2-0
                                                          Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-0

                                                          Date 06/07/2012

                                                          Final Labby Lines for 6/7/2012
                                                          39.30 - 39.30 -39.30 -39.30
                                                          58.93 - 58.93 - 58.93 - 58.93
                                                          95.70 - 95.70 - 95.70 -95.70

                                                          New Line Filtered
                                                          66.17 - 66.17 - 66.17 - 66.17

                                                          Filtered
                                                          #15 Detriot (C) -113 o/u 9.5 To win $66.17
                                                          #16 Boston (C) -142 o/u 9.5 To win $66.17
                                                          Regular
                                                          #64 Detriot (C) -113 o/u 9.5 .......to win $95.70
                                                          #65 Boston (C) -142 o/u 9.5 ......to win $95.70

                                                          * its hard to have less then 4 #s on a line when we go 1-3 and 1-2. * If any of you feel I am not running the lines correctly let me know. Detroit always seems to mess up this system

                                                          *Also note some of you did not play Boston as a filtered play because it dropped to 8.5 before game time on the A bet. I am not sure how On3 wants to count this. I counted it as a play based on the opening though.

                                                          *Note* I added another win to the books because I forgot Washington the other night.

                                                          *I got the early Juice lines based off covers.com. ... 5 dimes does not have the lines out for the games yet.

                                                          *my previous post I split the loss over B & C as usual and averaged out the lines individually.

                                                          Any one feel we should be adding a 5th or 6th number to the line to keep them a little lower?
                                                          Last edited by J.M. Disciple; 06-06-12, 09:27 PM.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • J.M. Disciple
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 11-16-10
                                                            • 5154

                                                            #1849
                                                            Anyone have the correct record for this system? On3's record seems to be a bit off still and im starting to notice little things that need to be changed. If I have it at 59wins and 5 losses thats a total of 64 series. However Boston and Detroit are suppose to be #64 and #65? Is on3 missing a win or did I accidentally add an extra win?

                                                            As long as the labby lines are correct we are in good hands. Records mean nothing when compared to profit. Someone help me correct the records?

                                                            for those playing both regular and Filtered you will be betting to win a total of 16.1 units tomorrow. Lots of bankroll on the line.

                                                            Good LUCK!! I really hope we get some of these lines cleared or at least reduced before on3 comes back. We need to add some filters and manage the lines a little differently for next season. I propose actually adding a # when we lose instead of keeping it at 4 #s, but always betting to cross off 2 #s.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • stevex
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 05-02-10
                                                              • 5122

                                                              #1850
                                                              At least System Integrity is looking good tonight for a change...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • J.M. Disciple
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 11-16-10
                                                                • 5154

                                                                #1851
                                                                Originally posted by stevex
                                                                At least System Integrity is looking good tonight for a change...
                                                                been combining systems and cappers to clear my personal line. Kinda heavy at the moment with about 30.6 units in play lucky I kept a stagnent unit size over last couple weeks and still have 100 units in my roll. Just slowly clear it.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • J.M. Disciple
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 11-16-10
                                                                  • 5154

                                                                  #1852
                                                                  Does Detroit's pitcher really have a 16 ERA for tomorrow? HOLY CRAP! ONLY 1 GAME but damn!!!! Kinda scared to pull the trigger on both of these C bets. Ok this is my last post for the night.

                                                                  Good night All tomorrow is a better day.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • KennyM10
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 02-14-10
                                                                    • 788

                                                                    #1853
                                                                    2 wins 10 losses the last two days? This has to be the worst thread on sbr. So tomorrow risk some insane amount and when it loses pretend it was filtered out. What a bunch of losers you guys are seriously.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Nino7
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 07-11-09
                                                                      • 798

                                                                      #1854
                                                                      alright guys im out.ill keep the rest of my bankroll for the winter games BOL
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • DustyDiamond
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 12-19-09
                                                                        • 772

                                                                        #1855
                                                                        I think I need to start using standard labby and get off of the aggressive labby approach, I'm getting killed
                                                                        Comment
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