LTA's MLB Plays

**Love The Action** · 04-10-12, 08:12 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Yeah tough day bro. I'm off today though, so looking forward to seeing how Moore fares against D-Troit. I think Porcello has a better year this year as well. BTW, where does your model have the Dodgers game, I am only luke warm on that one.

I think that dodger total is pretty accurate. I would put it at 6.3. Probably a pass for me because I can see both arguments for the over and under. GL

**Redscot** · 04-10-12, 08:13 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Royals look interesting tonight, but they have never faced godfrey and he throws nothing but junk.

Agreed, kind of guy that isn't gonna beat himself. Pitches to contact and is in the right stadium for that, that's for sure. Royals rested a little yesterday, if it weren't for the unfamiliarity angle, one would think they would hit Godfrey hard.

**Redscot** · 04-10-12, 08:15 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I think that dodger total is pretty accurate. I would put it at 6.3. Probably a pass for me because I can see both arguments for the over and under. GL

Yeah, even if the Dodgers put up a 5 spot, Kershaw could keep this one under...gonna contemplate this one some more. Off to do some errands, catch you all in a bit.

**Madison** · 04-10-12, 08:25 AM

I grabbed the Sox basically fading Drabek. 9inn 12er vs sox LY. Bard S/B decent enough.

**Love The Action** · 04-10-12, 09:35 AM

Anyone going to the tigers game today? Please let us know how that wind is blowing if anyone is out there. Thanks

**Pluthero** · 04-10-12, 09:42 AM

Originally posted by Madison

I grabbed the Sox basically fading Drabek. 9inn 12er vs sox LY. Bard S/B decent enough.

That's interesting; I grabbed the Jays basically fading Bard. He doesn't seem to have adjusted to life as a starter yet, imo.

**Madison** · 04-10-12, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by Pluthero

That's interesting; I grabbed the Jays basically fading Bard. He doesn't seem to have adjusted to life as a starter yet, imo.

Long term you may be right. Short term he's a way better pitcher than Drabek. GL on all your other plays.

**Child's Play** · 04-10-12, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Spot on? I didn't forget about bullpens. The Mets bullpen will prove no better than Washington's over the course of the season and probably worse because they are going to be overused from not having quality starters like Washington. I got burned last night by two 9th inning collapses -- it happens. Over the course of the year, those losses even out. Regardless, both plays beat the closing price and both were long term winning plays.

The other guy who tried to talk shit -- Ms. Piggy -- is just some fool with a grudge against me so I don't pay any attention. He has 6 posts since the end of 2011 when I had him booted off the SBR under another handle so he has a grudge. I don't know why you are coming in here talking shit, especially since you are trying to operate your own thread. Be careful or the next time you have a bad day the shoe might be on the other foot buddy.

Ohhhh, i get you thought i meant "spot on" to him saying you're horrible. I meant it about your analysis. It didn't mention anything about the Marlins/Phillies bullpens (which is the game I thought was in question?). But, should they had done their job, the pick would have played out exactly how you mentioned.

Pretty sure I've learned the most from you at the forum - which I've been looking at for about 2 years. Beating the closer a high percentage of the time now has = +$.

Dunno how often I'll be able to post, but I'll throw my 2 cents in every once in a while. Good luck today + rest of the season, sir.

**Love The Action** · 04-10-12, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by Child's Play

Ohhhh, i get you thought i meant "spot on" to him saying you're horrible. I meant it about your analysis. It didn't mention anything about the Marlins/Phillies bullpens (which is the game I thought was in question?). But, should they had done their job, the pick would have played out exactly how you mentioned.

Pretty sure I've learned the most from you at the forum - which I've been looking at for about 2 years. Beating the closer a high percentage of the time now has = +$.

Dunno how often I'll be able to post, but I'll throw my 2 cents in every once in a while. Good luck today + rest of the season, sir.

Good luck!

**Love The Action** · 04-10-12, 11:39 AM

That tigers under is starting to shoot back down despite the wind....i can still get it at even money so it tempting me.

**Love The Action** · 04-10-12, 12:01 PM

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/10/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays/Tigers under (8.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 04-10-12, 12:05 PM

I know rapuano is the ump and the wind is blowing out, but the tigers have never faced moore who is a certified stud and porcello tends to keep the ball down with a GB/FB generally above 1.5. Plus, according to the hard ball times study, there is no true wind effect at tigers stadium. I think the over is too easy in this one and the under hits. Good luck.

**Redscot** · 04-10-12, 12:06 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/10/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays/Tigers under (8.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

Miserable day to hit, watching the game. GL buddy, not on it as my local is still having issues

.

**mikea33** · 04-10-12, 01:29 PM

Fuk missed the early play

**mart59a** · 04-10-12, 01:38 PM

Amazing how many base runners getting stranded here...looking good for the under.
For you at least...I was on the over.

**Redscot** · 04-10-12, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by mart59a

Amazing how many base runners getting stranded here...looking good for the under.
For you at least...I was on the over.

There's been some nice leather flashed today too.

**Les_Nuts** · 04-10-12, 01:44 PM

Redscot, any thoughts on the mets today? I really like them in this spot

**Redscot** · 04-10-12, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by Les_Nuts

Redscot, any thoughts on the mets today? I really like them in this spot

Pretty sure Ike and Thole will be sitting tonight, not that big a deal as they are facing a leftie. Gonna have a deeper look at it in a while.

As I expected Ike and Thole are out, Turner a slight drop-off offensively and defensively at 1st, stillnot a big deal. Nickeas caught Gee twice last year and they had good chemistry. Gorman has a healthy strike zone which should help the nibbling pitchers, he has shown a slight home bias I suppose. I think this game is pretty much a toss-up. Maybe give the Mets a slight lean because of the positive mojo they have going. Am warming a bit to the under.

What you think LTA?

**Redscot** · 04-10-12, 02:43 PM

Nice call bud

. Gratz to you and the others on this play.

**apurvaas** · 04-10-12, 02:43 PM

nice hit... I missed the play though

BOL for today/tomorrow

**Vasco** · 04-10-12, 02:50 PM

Nice call on the under LTA. I must have missed it by 5 seconds, as I was placing the bet it gave me the old game has started message. Oh well, any other leans for tonight?

**SlickRick1382** · 04-10-12, 03:03 PM

Good call on the Under LTA

**Redscot** · 04-10-12, 03:06 PM

Getting ready to watch the Dodgers, but no Vin Scully today

(under the weather). Listening to him do a game is like a Broadway one man show.....amazing! A true American Classic.

**No coincidences** · 04-10-12, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Getting ready to watch the Dodgers, but no Vin Scully today

(under the weather). Listening to him do a game is like a Broadway one man show.....amazing! A true American Classic.

Truer words have never been spoken Red.

**Love The Action** · 04-10-12, 03:23 PM

Lean to stl/cincy and cubs/brewers under but the value is gone so no play. Also like cincy ml, but will pass. Like az and cahill, but thats another one that has lost more value. Still liking duffy and kc as of right now....

**Redscot** · 04-10-12, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Lean to stl/cincy and cubs/brewers under but the value is gone so no play. Also like cincy ml, but will pass. Like az and cahill, but thats another one that has lost more value. Still liking duffy and kc as of right now....

I liked that Stl/Cincy under since last night,but it is heavily juiced. Damn local down for maintenance, got me out of the loop.

**Redscot** · 04-10-12, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Lean to stl/cincy and cubs/brewers under but the value is gone so no play. Also like cincy ml, but will pass. Like az and cahill, but thats another one that has lost more value. Still liking duffy and kc as of right now....

Duffy is in the top 10 of guys bettering there numbers from last year. For the hell of it these were the projections I came up with top 10 improved era.s:

-----------------2012------2011-------Diff.

Lowe,D	4.11	5.05	0.94
Lyles,J	4.42	5.36	0.94
Duensing,B	4.29	5.24	0.95
Morrow,B	3.76	4.72	0.96
Furbush,C	4.49	5.48	0.99
Duffy,D	4.63	5.64	1.01
Hughes,P	4.63	5.79	1.16
Peavy,J	3.88	5.10	1.22
Volquez,E	4.34	5.71	1.37
Zito,B	4.31	5.87	1.56
Slowey,K	4.55	6.67	2.12

**BigBurk** · 04-10-12, 03:29 PM

You should start your own thread, Red.

**Redscot** · 04-10-12, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by BigBurk

You should start your own thread, Red.

Hopefully that is a compliment, or maybe a polite way of saying stop clogging the thread

. Truth is I have been off for the past few days, but once I get back in to the swing of things don't have much time to cap games anymore. Enjoy kicking it around mostly, talking about angles and such. Used to be some others dudes, BigDan etc. who would kick it around in LTA's thread....really helped improve my betting discipline.

If LTA does "retire", hopefully we can get him to pull a Favre, I will definitely continue to post in the thread and share whatever info I can dig up.

**SlickRick1382** · 04-10-12, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by BigBurk

You should start your own thread, Red.

Why?

What he provides in this thread is of great value and helps condense all the information so we don't have to look at a ton of different threads to find it. Also his input is of help to LTA.

Makes no sense to separate all the information ...

On a side note. Red, I think I read you're in DR right?

I go there every almost year. I need to buy you a couple of bottles of whatever you want bro. The info you and LTA provide and what I've learned is priceless ...

**Redscot** · 04-10-12, 03:40 PM

David Wright out now tonight for the Mets. If you liked the Nat's or the under now would be the time to grab it quick.

Ruben Tejada, SS
Ronny Cedeno, 3B
Daniel Murphy, 2B
Jason Bay, LF
Lucas Duda, RF
Justin Turner, 1B
Scott Hairston, CF
Mike Nickeas, C
Dillon Gee, P

**alamo** · 04-10-12, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by BigBurk

You should start your own thread, Red.

Personally, I believe LTA (and others including myself) love Red's input on this thread.

**crazed** · 04-10-12, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by alamo

Personally, I believe LTA (and others including myself) love Red's input on this thread.

Agree. I like Red's comments in this thread so as long as LTA is is good with I say don't go anywhere Red.

**BigBurk** · 04-10-12, 03:57 PM

Hold up, hold up. First of my comment was all positive, no negative note here! I think the guy is a great (if not the best) contributor to the MLB forum. I also love his input. Therefore, knowing LTA will leave us at a certain point I would love to see a thread of Red himself.

So yeah, that was a compliment.

**CaptainNemo89** · 04-10-12, 04:28 PM

does anyone else like over 9.5 blue jays/red sox game? i know bard has the unfamiliarity factor going as far as being a starting pitcher, but he was showcased as their best relief man last year, so im assuming the blue jays have seen a fair share of him... he only has two pitches to work with, and it being his first start, i can see him struggling to get through the blue jays lineup multiple times... and someone else documented drabek's struggles against the sox last year... i would have thought the public would be all over this over, but everywhere ive looked, it seems as though the public is pretty much 50-50 on this play...