LTA's MLB Plays

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-06-11, 10:34 AM

Anyone here do hockey or have advice on cappers to follow?

**Love The Action** · 10-06-11, 10:40 AM

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/6/11

Play #1

Tigers ML (+153) 1x (Locked)

Line starting to move around and I have a busy day at work ahead of me so I'm going to take the +153. I have the tigers as +131 dogs so the inflated odds on the yanks for very similar teams provides some nice value. Fister is by far the better pitcher tonight, and despite more bullpen options for the yanks, I'm rolling with the tigers for 1x. Good luck.

**Trivial** · 10-06-11, 10:50 AM

Thanks LTA for your guidance for tonight and tomorrow.

And sorry for jumping on the loser from last night in your thread.

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/6/11

Play #1

Tigers ML (+153) 1x (Locked)

Line starting to move around and I have a busy day at work ahead of me so I'm going to take the +153. I have the tigers as +131 dogs so the inflated odds on the yanks for very similar teams provides some nice value. Fister is by far the better pitcher tonight, and despite more bullpen options for the yanks, I'm rolling with the tigers for 1x. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 10-06-11, 12:22 PM

Wow...big move on the first five innings price as the tigers went from +150 to plus +130. Apparently some big money believes that fister will pitch wel, but is leery of the tigers bullpen. That is a solid concern and I would endorse a first five play on tigers as well as a full game play on the tigers. Can someone answer this question: if sabathia is available out of the bullpen tonight, is there any reason that verlander would not also be available?

Has anyone read any news articles on this subject?

Thanks.

**bleedtoledo** · 10-06-11, 12:33 PM

Colin cowherd was just talking about that with AJ pierzinski. Everyone agrees Tiges would be crazy not to have JV available for at least one inning. Leland is being coy about it, he's tryin to say verlander wont go. I doubt that.

**Exxpresso** · 10-06-11, 12:42 PM

MLB.com has this article:

NEW YORK -- The Yankees expect to tell CC Sabathia to lace up his game-day spikes for Thursday's Game 5 of the American League Division Series, just in case he is needed out of the bullpen.
But Tigers manager Jim Leyland was emphatic that Justin Verlander will watch the deciding game of the ALDS as a spectator, his workload complete for this playoff matchup.
Leyland said "no" twice at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday when asked if Verlander would be an option for him in Thursday's Game 5, echoing a statement he made after the hurler's Game 3 start at Comerica Park.

**Krazymojo** · 10-06-11, 01:45 PM

So are you getting on that first five innings play with the tigers as well as your tigers +153 1x?

**Love The Action** · 10-06-11, 02:15 PM

Wow...some of these sbr yankee backers are over the top ridiculous in their assessment of this game. The yankees are but their true odds of wining this game does not warrant -160 price. Yanks should not be more than -140....

**Love The Action** · 10-06-11, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by Krazymojo

So are you getting on that first five innings play with the tigers as well as your tigers +153 1x?

Maybe...but I already missed the drop on that from +150 to +130. I think the +130 is pretty accurate...i still like tigers to win the game but I also like them to win the first five. I already have them +153 for the game, so adding more money on the first five at a worse price is generally not a profitable strategy. We'll see...there are always exceptions.

**Krazymojo** · 10-06-11, 02:20 PM

So are you getting on that first five innings play with the tigers as well as your tigers +153 1x?

**Krazymojo** · 10-06-11, 03:16 PM

Sorry for repost stupid.phone

**Redscot** · 10-06-11, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Maybe...but I already missed the drop on that from +150 to +130. I think the +130 is pretty accurate...i still like tigers to win the game but I also like them to win the first five. I already have them +153 for the game, so adding more money on the first five at a worse price is generally not a profitable strategy. We'll see...there are always exceptions.

My local is at +145 for the game and +143 1st 5. Relative value I think I gotta go 1st 5. My biggest problem is I think the yanks will win

.

On another note. If you are backing Detroit, do you expect them to score more than 5 against Nova, CC, Robertson, Mariano? If not under 9 would seem a play....I am also tempted on the under 5 1st 5, would take 6 runs to lose that one......hmmmm.

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-06-11, 03:34 PM

Any thought on tigrrs +1/2 ff -110?

**Redscot** · 10-06-11, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by Donnie Brasco

Any thought on tigrrs +1/2 ff -110?

To me, it seems you are losing the value on the Detroit play....of course you win if game is tied.....personally I'd rather go for the +odds,but I don't necessarily see it as a bad play either...game should be pretty close. GL

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-06-11, 03:44 PM

Thx red

**Love The Action** · 10-06-11, 03:52 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

My local is at +145 for the game and +143 1st 5. Relative value I think I gotta go 1st 5. My biggest problem is I think the yanks will win

.

On another note. If you are backing Detroit, do you expect them to score more than 5 against Nova, CC, Robertson, Mariano? If not under 9 would seem a play....I am also tempted on the under 5 1st 5, would take 6 runs to lose that one......hmmmm.

If you think the yankees win, then you should take the yankees! Always trust yourself over others or you may come to regret it....

Bottom line is that I think the tigers win both the first five and the game with a total that ends around 9. My capping isnt designed for first five, but it sure makes sense and that twenty drop backs that up....

Good luck with whatever you choose.

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-06-11, 03:54 PM

What is the diff btwn these bets: ff -1/2 +165, ff pk,-1/2 +148? Wjere does pk come into play? If they are tied or up 1 you win. If so that is close to original value on det ff before the move right?

**Love The Action** · 10-06-11, 03:58 PM

Wow....robin ventura is new white sox manager !!!!

**alvinho** · 10-06-11, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by Donnie Brasco

What is the diff btwn these bets: ff -1/2 +165, ff pk,-1/2 +148? Wjere does pk come into play? If they are tied or up 1 you win. If so that is close to original value on det ff before the move right?

no, pk, -1/2 if they are tied the bet is a half LOSS and half PUSH.

you separate the bet into 2, pk and -1/2. if they are tied, you lose the -1/2 half and push the pk half

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-06-11, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by alvinho

no, pk, -1/2 if they are tied the bet is a half LOSS and half PUSH.

you separate the bet into 2, pk and -1/2. if they are tied, you lose the -1/2 half and push the pk half

I see said the blind man......

**Redscot** · 10-06-11, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

If you think the yankees win, then you should take the yankees! Always trust yourself over others or you may come to regret it....

Bottom line is that I think the tigers win both the first five and the game with a total that ends around 9. My capping isnt designed for first five, but it sure makes sense and that twenty drop backs that up....

Good luck with whatever you choose.

I am just so jaded when it comes to the Yanks (most hated sport franchise), I barely trust myself bro! Honestly, I could see Detroit leading this one 2-1, 3-2 1st 5 and than getting shut down the rest of the way pretty much. Meanwhile, I don't trust that Tiger pen,and Yankee stadium gets rocking! Valverde has some Karma/variance coming his way one of these days too!

How schizo would it be betting Detroit 1st 5 and Yanks game

. Least likely scenario is Yanks winning 1st 5 and then blowing the game, so it would be hedged up.....too crazy

.

So you think Detroit has a good chance of getting more than 5 runs tonight I am inferring.....?

**alvinho** · 10-06-11, 04:23 PM

Got Tigers pk 1st 5 +140 at pinny now

**Love The Action** · 10-06-11, 04:25 PM

As an fyi, I am also playing the over in tonight's oregon ncaaf game....

**bleedtoledo** · 10-06-11, 04:28 PM

What have you done for me lately?

Fister last start v. Yanks: 6 ER on 7 hits, 2 walks, 6 k's

**Love The Action** · 10-06-11, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

I am just so jaded when it comes to the Yanks (most hated sport franchise), I barely trust myself bro! Honestly, I could see Detroit leading this one 2-1, 3-2 1st 5 and than getting shut down the rest of the way pretty much. Meanwhile, I don't trust that Tiger pen,and Yankee stadium gets rocking! Valverde has some Karma/variance coming his way one of these days too!

How schizo would it be betting Detroit 1st 5 and Yanks game

. Least likely scenario is Yanks winning 1st 5 and then blowing the game, so it would be hedged up.....too crazy

.

So you think Detroit has a good chance of getting more than 5 runs tonight I am inferring.....?

Agreed about valverde....regression coming at some point....hopefully next year

Can't say for sure about detroit scoring over 5....50/50 in my mind...

GL...

**Redscot** · 10-06-11, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Agreed about valverde....regression coming at some point....hopefully next year

Can't say for sure about detroit scoring over 5....50/50 in my mind...

GL...

GL bud,

I am either tailing you or laying off. No way I pay that juice on a game I see as being very close.

**Love The Action** · 10-06-11, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by bleedtoledo

What have you done for me lately?

Fister last start v. Yanks: 6 ER on 7 hits, 2 walks, 6 k's

Did you watch the game...fister retired 11 in a row at one point and didnt give up any runs until his last inning of work. Plus, why would one solitary performance, good or bad, control the result of this game?

**bleedtoledo** · 10-06-11, 04:48 PM

Haha, sorry I didn't see the game. Just looked up the stats.

I would argue that a pitchers most recent start against a team does have some bearing on their next. Again, I didn't know he retired 11 straight.

I'm no psychic, I just have some premonition Yanks will get up & not look back. That said, everytime I check LTA's play - it always hits.

**BigDan** · 10-06-11, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by bleedtoledo

Haha, sorry I didn't see the game. Just looked up the stats.

I would argue that a pitchers most recent start against a team does have some bearing on their next. Again, I didn't know he retired 11 straight.

I'm no psychic, I just have some premonition Yanks will get up & not look back. That said, everytime I check LTA's play - it always hits.

Disagree totally, much of the time throughout the season you will see a pitcher have a terrible start then play the same team a week later and shut them down, and vise versa. just the way it seems to work more often than not imho...

**815Sox** · 10-06-11, 05:40 PM

Robin Ventura is the new White Sox manager... a total shock and a total Kenny Williams move. He is saying the right things... talking about players being accountable, ready to play, care about each other. Maybe they feel like he will be able to get Dunn, Rios and Peavy back on track and help give the younger guys a better chance to develop (he was with Sox player development).

This is either going to work out great or he is going to be run out of town in two years.

**bleedtoledo** · 10-06-11, 05:57 PM

I have Tiges now at +157. This is simply because so much money goes on NY, right?

**Krazymojo** · 10-06-11, 06:00 PM

got cards/phillys under 7(-130) and az/mil under 7.5(-125)

**bleedtoledo** · 10-06-11, 06:03 PM

Tiges now 159, will it keep climbing??

**gshock1** · 10-06-11, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by bleedtoledo

Tiges now 159, will it keep climbing??

does this mean Sharp $ is on NY or just the general market driving up the price?

**bleedtoledo** · 10-06-11, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by gshock1

does this mean Sharp $ is on NY or just the general market driving up the price?

I don't know?? Where is LTA in these crucial times? I'm trying to put together parlays!!