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  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #3431
    Originally posted by Redscot
    That's a bold statement for a rookie in a huge spot. Not sure if you are a believer in advanced stats, but Hell-boy has been one of the luckier pitchers this year in baseball, Babip .222! LOB % 82. He's capable, no argument there, but conspiracy theories withstanding the yanks ain't no shrinking violets and getting +180 is taking advantage of the public sentiment that a team "needs" a game imo. Either way best of luck, I have observed your threads and you seem to be a stand up guy.
    Couldn't have said it better myself Red. I think there's a lot of value in taking the Yankees tonight.
    Comment
    • tonyp0387
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 01-11-10
      • 617

      #3432
      LTA you mind me asking you what your model has for Blue Jays. I locked them in last night at +115 its now at a -110 . I like Alvarez think he's a bit underrated . BOL tonight im taking the Yankees with you . Can't wait for the playoffs to start.
      Comment
      • Love The Action
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 11-08-10
        • 10952

        #3433
        Bam..yanks down to -171...
        Comment
        • No coincidences
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-18-10
          • 76300

          #3434
          Originally posted by Love The Action
          Bam..yanks down to -171...
          Comment
          • Love The Action
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 11-08-10
            • 10952

            #3435
            Originally posted by tonyp0387
            LTA you mind me asking you what your model has for Blue Jays. I locked them in last night at +115 its now at a -110 . I like Alvarez think he's a bit underrated . BOL tonight im taking the Yankees with you . Can't wait for the playoffs to start.
            I actually had a solid lean on tor last night before the move, but laid off because of all the craziness of the ozzie situation. My model has the jays at +100, so you are getting great value imho. I just can't cap how the players respond to the ozzie craziness. I like the kid alvarez though. Good luck!
            Comment
            • No coincidences
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-18-10
              • 76300

              #3436
              Originally posted by Love The Action
              I actually had a solid lean on tor last night before the move, but laid off because of all the craziness of the ozzie situation. My model has the jays at +100, so you are getting great value imho. I just can't cap how the players respond to the ozzie craziness. I like the kid alvarez though. Good luck!
              I'm also worried about Buehrle -- this might be it for him in Chicago. He could be real strong tonight.

              Line says otherwise, though.
              Comment
              • Redscot
                SBR MVP
                • 05-16-11
                • 2571

                #3437
                All bets aside fun time to be a fan tonight. Gonna be sippin' rum and watching baseball. Gl to one and all

                Comment
                • Trivial
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-22-09
                  • 1328

                  #3438
                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                  Bam..yanks down to -171...
                  You mean +171 ?
                  Comment
                  • Trivial
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-22-09
                    • 1328

                    #3439
                    Wow, go to the washroom and come back to 2 runs, one on second base, 1 out. Yankees can easily recover from this with one 7 run inning.
                    Comment
                    • Love The Action
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-08-10
                      • 10952

                      #3440
                      Originally posted by PhillyFlyers
                      Hey guys, I'm new to this forum but just wanted to put my $0.02 in regarding this statement. My opinion is this...

                      Professional sports, all sports, are fixed. There are records of it since the beginning. Boxing, football, baseball, basketball, soccer, etc. etc. You name it, it's been fixed.

                      It's comes in all forms too. Sometimes, it's a player/athlete that gets caught. Other times, it's a referee or official.

                      I am also of the opinion that there is no way to stop it. For every Tim Donaghy that gets caught, there may be 10 more waiting in line behind him.

                      I'm not saying every game is fixed, but some still clearly are in my opinion. Look at the Toledo/Syracuse football game where an obvious missed PAT was called good. To me, that is an obvious sign that something underhanded was going on in that game.

                      That game should have rightly been won by Toledo. So why wasn't it?

                      The funny/sad part about it that all the NCAA/Big East will do about it is issue some sort of an apology or lame excuse for it, and it will all be swept under the rug like it never even happened and things will continue just like they normally do.

                      I am in no way saying that the Yankees are in a fix or throwing a game purposely. Nor do I mean to cause any offense so please don't take it wrongly. All I'm trying to say is that some games have definitely been fixed in the past and I believe they continue to be so today.
                      Welcome!

                      I would, however, disagree with you.

                      I generally don't believe in wide spread "fix" conspiracies because in today's world, it would be impossible to orchestrate such a scheme and keep it quiet. If you involve more than a few people, someone would find out about it and with internet, the TMZ's of the world and all our other communication mediums, it is virtually impossible to keep such a large conspiracy under wraps.

                      I think what you have to remember is that over such large sample of games 10,000 +, weird things are going to happen. Referees, players, coaches and everyone else involved with sports are human and humans make mistakes. We can't be perfect all the time.

                      Ofcourse some fixes have happened -- you name the Donaghy scandal for one -- but you have to remember the important thing is that we always ended up finding out about them. The reason is that things like that don't stay a secret forever.

                      The whole idea of a "fix" -- outside of isolated incidents which are insignificant when you think of the total amount of wagerable events throughout the last 100 years -- is nothing more than a gambler's fallacy to make himself feel better about a losing play.

                      Plus, even if there was a fix, the play is still a 50/50 proposition for those betting it because they don't know it's fixed. Consequently, you can be on the winning side of the fix just as easily as you could be on the losing end.

                      Good luck on your wagers...feel free to stop by more often
                      Comment
                      • Love The Action
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-08-10
                        • 10952

                        #3441
                        Originally posted by Redscot
                        All bets aside fun time to be a fan tonight. Gonna be sippin' rum and watching baseball. Gl to one and all

                        Good luck tonight my friend
                        Comment
                        • Love The Action
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-08-10
                          • 10952

                          #3442
                          Originally posted by No coincidences
                          Couldn't have said it better myself Red. I think there's a lot of value in taking the Yankees tonight.
                          Let's get it NC
                          Comment
                          • No coincidences
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 01-18-10
                            • 76300

                            #3443
                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                            Let's get it NC
                            We're going to need runs -- Colon is trash.
                            Comment
                            • Trivial
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-22-09
                              • 1328

                              #3444
                              Originally posted by No coincidences
                              We're going to need runs -- Colon is trash.
                              Yup. so trash, I can't watch this game now. Going to play online poker instead and see the result in a couple of hours. :-)
                              Comment
                              • Love The Action
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-08-10
                                • 10952

                                #3445
                                Originally posted by No coincidences
                                We're going to need runs -- Colon is trash.
                                Yeah...freeking Arod stranding guys at first and second doesn't help either. With that said, Colon just got us through four innings and only gave up two runs. I'll take that with the bullpen getting fired up in one more inning as expected.
                                Comment
                                • Redscot
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-16-11
                                  • 2571

                                  #3446
                                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                                  Yeah...freeking Arod stranding guys at first and second doesn't help either. With that said, Colon just got us through four innings and only gave up two runs. I'll take that with the bullpen getting fired up in one more inning as expected.


                                  F-ing A-rod is the only asshole on the Yanks who couldn't be bothered.
                                  Comment
                                  • Redscot
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 05-16-11
                                    • 2571

                                    #3447
                                    Triple play! Wow!
                                    Comment
                                    • No coincidences
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 01-18-10
                                      • 76300

                                      #3448
                                      Yanks should have about 10 runs by now.
                                      Comment
                                      • Redscot
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 05-16-11
                                        • 2571

                                        #3449
                                        Originally posted by No coincidences
                                        Yanks should have about 10 runs by now.
                                        Indeed. Hellickson is good...but he has been blessed this year.

                                        Soriano, Robertson, Mariano. Soriano worries me.
                                        Comment
                                        • Redscot
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-16-11
                                          • 2571

                                          #3450
                                          Originally posted by Redscot
                                          Indeed. Hellickson is good...but he has been blessed this year.

                                          Soriano, Robertson, Mariano. Soriano worries me.
                                          What a bum! Only the Yanks would overbid this one hit wonder by like 4 million a year.
                                          Comment
                                          • No coincidences
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 01-18-10
                                            • 76300

                                            #3451
                                            That was a little too obvious.
                                            Comment
                                            • Love The Action
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 11-08-10
                                              • 10952

                                              #3452
                                              Disappointed in Soriano and all the runners left on base by the Yanks...but it is what it is. I'll take a shot like that every time with valueat +180 on the superior team.

                                              Just finished making my first play of the week in NCAAF...may add a unit to this one as well http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...-plays-p3.html
                                              Comment
                                              • Love The Action
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 11-08-10
                                                • 10952

                                                #3453
                                                Originally posted by Redscot
                                                On another note.
                                                I don't see Bedard being lights out tonight, Lavarnway catching Bedard for first time in this spot ain't gonna help him gain quick rhythm. (edit) See both Varitek and Salty are ?, that is tough. Gonna be interesting in Boston if the game is close.....Sox lineup has Lawrie Cleanup and 6-9
                                                6. Ryan Lavarnway (R) C
                                                7. Darnell McDonald (R) RF
                                                8. Carl Crawford (L) LF
                                                9. Marco Scutaro (R) SS

                                                Not all that intimidating.
                                                Your boy Lavrarnway just hit two HR's...Francona looks like a genius with that one
                                                Comment
                                                • Love The Action
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 11-08-10
                                                  • 10952

                                                  #3454
                                                  Originally posted by lakerboy
                                                  good luck lta. im on the rays rl. yanks wont sniff hellickson
                                                  Nice call

                                                  Just the way you expected I'm sure, with Hellickson getting a triple play to get out a bases loaded jam
                                                  Comment
                                                  • No coincidences
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 01-18-10
                                                    • 76300

                                                    #3455
                                                    Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                    Nice call

                                                    Just the way you expected I'm sure, with Hellickson getting a triple play to get out a bases loaded jam
                                                    I'm fvcking fuming over that game.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Trivial
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 11-22-09
                                                      • 1328

                                                      #3456
                                                      Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                      I'm fvcking fuming over that game.
                                                      NC - you and me both. I think I gotta take a break from MLB. Losing too much lately. Sigh.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • fitguy67
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 03-13-11
                                                        • 5082

                                                        #3457
                                                        Baseball is an amazing roller-coaster ride. Individual games, the season...and the bankrolls that bet on it.

                                                        In Soccer, Hockey, Basketball, Football, etc. etc. the games play out "truer to form"...baseball deserves its nickname "game of inches"...and "batterer of bankrolls" (er, I just made that one up...)
                                                        Last edited by fitguy67; 09-28-11, 12:39 AM.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • badongkadong
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 09-21-11
                                                          • 32

                                                          #3458
                                                          Lta, lets go out big tomorrow. Looking forward to your picks
                                                          Comment
                                                          • 815Sox
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 09-13-10
                                                            • 1078

                                                            #3459
                                                            Originally posted by No coincidences

                                                            I'm also worried about Buehrle -- this might be it for him in Chicago. He could be real strong tonight.

                                                            Line says otherwise, though.
                                                            Of course he was lockdown. Tonights weather also reminded me of his first no hitter. I had tickets to that game, but didn't go.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • 815Sox
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 09-13-10
                                                              • 1078

                                                              #3460
                                                              Originally posted by Trivial

                                                              Yup. so trash, I can't watch this game now. Going to play online poker instead and see the result in a couple of hours. :-)
                                                              This is the same guy that just disappeared on the White Sox. Seriously, they had no idea where he went, even his agent didn't know. He just left. Also, that whole operation he got was sketchy. He had to go out of the US to get it, and its a procedure that they normally use HGH.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • No coincidences
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 01-18-10
                                                                • 76300

                                                                #3461
                                                                Can't believe the violent line movement in TOR/CHW and ATL/PHI, which produced an 0-2 result.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • EdV38
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 04-04-09
                                                                  • 266

                                                                  #3462
                                                                  Tor/Chi under 8.5 looks like a good one for tomorrow. Both pitchers have been feast or famine all year around but I'd put my money on both of them doing well against the bush league lineups that they'll be facing. There's more sub-230 hitters tomorrow between the two teams than a 1988 NL lineup and that includes the pitchers.

                                                                  If Morrow pitches like he has the last two games they'll give him a chance to complete the game. No reason to hold back his pitch count now.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Love The Action
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                                    • 10952

                                                                    #3463
                                                                    Originally posted by EdV38
                                                                    Tor/Chi under 8.5 looks like a good one for tomorrow. Both pitchers have been feast or famine all year around but I'd put my money on both of them doing well against the bush league lineups that they'll be facing. There's more sub-230 hitters tomorrow between the two teams than a 1988 NL lineup and that includes the pitchers.

                                                                    If Morrow pitches like he has the last two games they'll give him a chance to complete the game. No reason to hold back his pitch count now.


                                                                    My concern, however, is both Humber and the rain. I'm not going to pay for more than -110 at 8.5 and I'm not going to lock it in now because of the rain. I really like it though if not for the rain. We'll see. Good luck if you play it.
                                                                    Last edited by Love The Action; 09-28-11, 05:21 AM.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Love The Action
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 11-08-10
                                                                      • 10952

                                                                      #3464
                                                                      MLB Recap 9/27/11

                                                                      1 - 1 = 0x

                                                                      MLB Season 2011

                                                                      415 - 376 = +37.35x

                                                                      The Yanks break our heard and destroy a possible near +3x day. Last day of the regular season....good luck!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Redscot
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 05-16-11
                                                                        • 2571

                                                                        #3465
                                                                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                        Your boy Lavrarnway just hit two HR's...Francona looks like a genius with that one
                                                                        Tito for President.
                                                                        Comment
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