LTA's MLB Plays

**Trivial** · 09-22-11, 05:18 AM

Nice picks LTA last night as always. You rock.

**Love The Action** · 09-22-11, 05:59 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Interesting the Angels are only -115 tomorrow LTA.

I considered it, but feel the under is the better play. Alvarez is pitching very well (e.g. xFIP and SIERA around 3.5, decent K% at 15%, great GB/FB of 2.15, nice WHIP of 1.15, BABIP around .280 shows it's not been a ton of luck, a meaty LOB of 76%, etc.). With Alvarez having never faced the Angels, I think he pitches well. Santana is always solid, so I will roll with the under. Good luck if you play the Angels.

**Supaman** · 09-22-11, 05:59 AM

good shit LTA again lets get them again today

**Love The Action** · 09-22-11, 06:00 AM

Originally posted by BigDan

we all know im a stl homer but this had to have been a premature ejaculation. cards have imposed their will on everyone lately. yea Furcal made a error but their d been great as of late., Garcia a headcase bt after the meltdown he kept Cards in it knowing they would score...Motte screwed me as i been playing them -1.5 this series but ti pretty ovious they have imposed their will this last month and will prob continue to do so against cubs and astros. Braves/red sox a dif storey, Braves have no will and a beat up staff and Bos just beat up...

Hello everyone, Hope all is well. You know this time of year baseball only interest me if Cards are relevant

What up BD

**Love The Action** · 09-22-11, 06:10 AM

Originally posted by bigballer891

I like this one LTA, but think first 5 under may be the stronger play. Its well known toronto has one of the worst bullpens in baseball and its not likely alvarez goes more than 6.

For better or worse, I stick with full game sides and totals. That's what my model is set up for and that's what I cap. While Toronto's bullpen is not good, they can get the job done with such a high total. Plus, they just promoted a few guys that are pitching well and have not seen the Angels before. I have tracked FF on my unders for awhile and it seems there are just as many games that go over FF and stay under the total as there are FF that stay under and go over for the game. It all evens out so I'm going to stick with the game under. Good luck in whatever you play

**Donnie Brasco** · 09-22-11, 06:29 AM

Thanks so much for taking time to reply to my question. Gonna get those books asap!

**Love The Action** · 09-22-11, 06:34 AM

Alright...I'm off for work....

This will be a big day for capping NCAAF as my locals should release their NCAAF totals.

Good luck today fellas

**Redscot** · 09-22-11, 07:07 AM

Originally posted by BigDan

we all know im a stl homer but this had to have been a premature ejaculation. cards have imposed their will on everyone lately. yea Furcal made a error but their d been great as of late., Garcia a headcase bt after the meltdown he kept Cards in it knowing they would score...Motte screwed me as i been playing them -1.5 this series but ti pretty ovious they have imposed their will this last month and will prob continue to do so against cubs and astros. Braves/red sox a dif storey, Braves have no will and a beat up staff and Bos just beat up...

Hello everyone, Hope all is well. You know this time of year baseball only interest me if Cards are relevant

Indeed they have BigD. Good to see you around, and continued good luck to your Cards.

**pacocn** · 09-22-11, 07:22 AM

Lta, bol lets get em today

**fitguy67** · 09-22-11, 07:57 AM

Hey GG, what're the odds that God1 turns out to be "Lord and Master"'s doppelganger...

**alvinho** · 09-22-11, 08:05 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 9/22/11

Play #1

Giants/Dodgers under (6.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I think this one goes down to 6 by Thursday morning so I'm going to jump on a juicy 6.5 now. Kuroda got knocked around by the Giants last week and most people will be taking the over because of it. However, we know better based on Kuroda's solid advanced stats and this being a perfect bounce back spot. MBaum is a top 10 MLB guy and I look to back him wherever possible. The Giants got a dose of dominant lefty on Tuesday and the Dodgers will get a similar dose on Thursday. The wind is projected to blow out slightly at around 6 mph so I do not expect that to factor into the final score. The ump is solid under guy in Wolf, who has a strike rate over 63%. I'm rolling with the under for 1x for now, with a possible addition to our stake down the road if warranted. Good luck.

Line moved from -118 to -110 on Pinny, im thinking about adding another unit.

**Donnie Brasco** · 09-22-11, 08:26 AM

Wouldnt that mean the line is moving against you? Explain why u would add another unit if u have time. Thanks!

**Donnie Brasco** · 09-22-11, 08:28 AM

Not being smartass, trying to learn.

**Donnie Brasco** · 09-22-11, 08:31 AM

Wow, matt moore opened up as favorite over colon. -115 at pinny. Kids got good stuff but looked erratic last weekend. Maybe a good spot for taking yanks as home dog?

**guil0000** · 09-22-11, 10:36 AM

NYY just clinched last night I think that's why the line is so out of whack. I think staying away is best. Maybe the linemakers have overreacted but I doubt since they know they will get NYY money aniways

**Love The Action** · 09-22-11, 10:37 AM

Really starting to warm up to mets/cards under...

**BennyFang** · 09-22-11, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Really starting to warm up to mets/cards under...

Nooooo! I'm already on the other side.

Like the late night under play.

BOL

**guil0000** · 09-22-11, 10:44 AM

I'm on the Mets 1st 5 at this nice price

**815Sox** · 09-22-11, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Really starting to warm up to mets/cards under...

Its looking nice at that price

**Love The Action** · 09-22-11, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by 815Sox

Its looking nice at that price

The main reason I like it is that I can get 9....but its juicy....

**815Sox** · 09-22-11, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

The main reason I like it is that I can get 9....but its juicy....

ahh I see. I am not going to play it, but +110 @ 5dimes seems pretty good.

**Love The Action** · 09-22-11, 12:49 PM

Although I like the cardinals under a lot at 9(-110) which is what I can get now, I am going to lay off because of the weather and rain. Weather delays are the kiss of death for unders.

I might make an action parlay on the mets and under...will post if I do.

Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 09-22-11, 06:34 PM

So glad I didn't take that Cardinals under...what a bad beat that would have been...

**No coincidences** · 09-22-11, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

So glad I didn't take that Cardinals under...what a bad beat that would have been...

Pathetic loss for StL.

I don't know why LaRussa dicks around in the 9th inning sometimes instead of just going to his closer.

Do you like the Dodgers at all later with the under? What about Colorado? Think I might go with both.

**Redscot** · 09-22-11, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

So glad I didn't take that Cardinals under...what a bad beat that would have been...

Yup, lost 3.4 units on the m/l. BigD! WTF! The will was not imposed today when I counted on it. Oh well, money is money, I know as a die hard that loss probably hurt you more than me bro, we both got F'd. Gonna drink heavily tonight, last 2 days have been a bitch. Gl on the plays all

.

**cesar8000** · 09-22-11, 07:03 PM

giants and astros tonight

over giants they need to win because cards lost

**Love The Action** · 09-22-11, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Pathetic loss for StL.

I don't know why LaRussa dicks around in the 9th inning sometimes instead of just going to his closer.

Do you like the Dodgers at all later with the under? What about Colorado? Think I might go with both.

Baumgarner and the Giants are the play on the ML for that game. I think Kuroda has a bit of trouble with the four lefties right in the middle of the order. His platoon splits evidence some weakness against lefties.

I see Giants winning 4-1 or 4-2. However, I have the under more highly rated so I'm sticking with that.

No play or lean in the Colorado game. More of a coinflip to me.

Good luck on your plays NC!

**No coincidences** · 09-22-11, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Baumgarner and the Giants are the play on the ML for that game. I think Kuroda has a bit of trouble with the four lefties right in the middle of the order. His platoon splits evidence some weakness against lefties.

I see Giants winning 4-1 or 4-2. However, I have the under more highly rated so I'm sticking with that.

No play or lean in the Colorado game. More of a coinflip to me.

Good luck on your plays NC!

Not sure if I'll play anything -- I'm in pretty good shape with the rest of my bets today, and had a lean to your under, but I'm not really crazy about the line movement so far.

**Love The Action** · 09-22-11, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Yup, lost 3.4 units on the m/l. BigD! WTF! The will was not imposed today when I counted on it. Oh well, money is money, I know as a die hard that loss probably hurt you more than me bro, we both got F'd. Gonna drink heavily tonight, last 2 days have been a bitch. Gl on the plays all

.

I liked the under in that game a whole lot more than the side, but I thought Westbrook was overpriced in relation to Capuano's stats. Nevertheless, Cards deserved to win...what a bad beat. Why did you guys go so big on that one though?

Red -- don't worry about the last two days bro...you've been killing the local lately so it's good to give a little back so he don't boot ya.

**Love The Action** · 09-22-11, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Not sure if I'll play anything -- I'm in pretty good shape with the rest of my bets today, and had a lean to your under, but I'm not really crazy about the line movement so far.

So far...I predict late money hits the under and you see a close in the -120 range. I fvked up on that one as it stands, but I think I will be at or beat the closer when it's all said and done. We'll see. GL

**No coincidences** · 09-22-11, 07:30 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

So far...I predict late money hits the under and you see a close in the -120 range. I fvked up on that one as it stands, but I think I will be at or beat the closer when it's all said and done. We'll see. GL

Not quite sure what the angle would be on an over here.

**Love The Action** · 09-22-11, 08:24 PM

Originally posted by bigballer891

I like this one LTA, but think first 5 under may be the stronger play. Its well known toronto has one of the worst bullpens in baseball and its not likely alvarez goes more than 6.

Good call on the FF under

**Love The Action** · 09-22-11, 08:33 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Not quite sure what the angle would be on an over here.

The angle is that Giants beat Kuroda up not too long ago, are hitting better and have four solid lefties in the middle of the lineup against which Kuroda struggles. With that said, I still like the under here.

Nonetheless, if this late action on the under never materializes, it's a perfect example of a bad wager. I made it -120 and it looks like it will close at -110 or better. Therefore, I lost 10 cents for every dollar on this bet which definitely adds up. I just hope I win....

**Trivial** · 09-22-11, 08:45 PM

LTA. I am in the same boat.

**Love The Action** · 09-22-11, 08:47 PM

Possible 3x-4x wager coming up tomorrow!