LTA's MLB Plays

[face]

god1 do you look at FIP and whip and lineups? or just bet on line movement?

[God1]

god1 do you look at FIP and whip and lineups? or just bet on line movement?

none of the above

FIP is inferior to xFIP or SIERA with a combination of judging for yourself if the HR/fb rate for a specific pitcher should be above or below league avg

[Donnie Brasco]

He gets premonitions from upon high

[Love The Action]

Geez....i have a hectic work day and log in to see all this nonsense.

Guys...you have to get over how G1 delivers his message and actually think about what he is saying. The trends previously referenced mean nothing in relation to tonight's game and G1 was correct in that regard. The fact that he was insulting in the delivery of his mesage should be ignored. That reflects poorly on his character, but this is just an internet chat board and you can't expect everyone to be civil.

In addition, I suggest you stop referring to him by his screen name because that only feeds his pompous ego, which is undoubtedly the result of the many insecurities he must have in the real world (I bet when he looks in the mirror, he sees the "comic book guy" from the Simpsons ).

Nevertheless, even though he comes off as a pompous prick, his message should not be lost on the vast majority of you, because he is often correct in what he says (or at least on the right path). Don't let the delivery of his message blind you to the information such message provides. If you can learn something that will add to your profit, then my goal for this thread has been met.

I encourage discourse and the exchange of ideas, so we can all get better at our craft. This thread is for the "thinking man" and I welcome everyone who has a worthwhile contribution to make, including G1.

Now...let's make some money...

[Donnie Brasco]

He cant be troubled with ur petty stats like fip and whip and lineups and era and ba you mortal!

[No coincidences]

Geez....i have a hectic work day and log in to see all this nonsense.

Guys...you have to get over how G1 delivers his message and actually think about what he is saying. The trends previously referenced mean nothing in relation to tonight's game and G1 was correct in that regard. The fact that he was insulting in the delivery of his mesage should be ignored. That reflects poorly on his character, but this is just an internet chat board and you can't expect everyone to be civil.

In addition, I suggest you stop referring to him by his screen name because that only feeds his pompous ego, which is undoubtedly the result of the many insecurities he must have in the real world (I bet when he looks in the mirror, he sees the "comic book guy" from the Simpsons ).

Nevertheless, even though he comes off as a pompous prick, his message should not be lost on the vast majority of you, because he is often correct in what he says (or at least on the right path). Don't let the delivery of his message blind you to the information such message provides. If you can learn something that will add to your profit, then my goal for this thread has been met.

I encourage discourse and the exchange of ideas, so we can all get better at our craft. This thread is for "thinking man" and I welcome everyone who has a worthwhile contribution to make, including G1.

Now...let's make some money...

I continue to appreciate both your knowledge and level-headedness LTA.

You are a true asset to SBR.

[Donnie Brasco]

Sorry LTA, much love 4 ya

[God1]

Geez....i have a hectic work day and log in to see all this nonsense.

Guys...you have to get over how G1 delivers his message and actually think about what he is saying. The trends previously referenced mean nothing in relation to tonight's game and G1 was correct in that regard. The fact that he was insulting in the delivery of his mesage should be ignored. That reflects poorly on his character, but this is just an internet chat board and you can't expect everyone to be civil.

In addition, I suggest you stop referring to him by his screen name because that only feeds his pompous ego, which is undoubtedly the result of the many insecurities he must have in the real world (I bet when he looks in the mirror, he sees the "comic book guy" from the Simpsons ).

I think it's hilarious that some people actually care about that enough to not call me by my full screen name. I'd happily refer to someone as Lord, God, or Master of the universe if that was their screen name. People take this stuff way too seriously

[investing4us]

Geez....i have a hectic work day and log in to see all this nonsense.

Guys...you have to get over how G1 delivers his message and actually think about what he is saying. The trends previously referenced mean nothing in relation to tonight's game and G1 was correct in that regard. The fact that he was insulting in the delivery of his mesage should be ignored. That reflects poorly on his character, but this is just an internet chat board and you can't expect everyone to be civil.

In addition, I suggest you stop referring to him by his screen name because that only feeds his pompous ego, which is undoubtedly the result of the many insecurities he must have in the real world (I bet when he looks in the mirror, he sees the "comic book guy" from the Simpsons ).

Nevertheless, even though he comes off as a pompous prick, his message should not be lost on the vast majority of you, because he is often correct in what he says (or at least on the right path). Don't let the delivery of his message blind you to the information such message provides. If you can learn something that will add to your profit, then my goal for this thread has been met.

I encourage discourse and the exchange of ideas, so we can all get better at our craft. This thread is for the "thinking man" and I welcome everyone who has a worthwhile contribution to make, including G1.

Now...let's make some money...

Hey Lta,

I agree lets beat the books. Anyway god1 is very arogant, I was looking at the previous trends in the bal vs bos matchups and just wanted to get some thoughts from other members on tonights game.

[Donnie Brasco]

U guys ever use the site fangraphs for stats? Or just covers mainly?

[Donnie Brasco]

G1 why do u prefer xfip to fip. Isnt fip specific to that team and xfip using the league average? Serious question

[Love The Action]

I think it's hilarious that some people actually care about that enough to not call me by my full screen name. I'd happily refer to someone as Lord, God, or Master of the universe if that was their screen name. People take this stuff way too seriously

I would generally agree....except when people do use that screen name, you respond with this:

Even the ones who hate have enough respect to refer to me as God

I find it hilarious that some people are so insecure that they feel better about themselves by baiting sheep into referring to them by a particular name and then feeling an "heir of superiority" in doing so

[investing4us]

Thanx Redscot for your insights of the bos/bal game.

[God1]

G1 why do u prefer xfip to fip. Isnt fip specific to that team and xfip using the league average? Serious question

fip uses a pitcher's actual HR rate, xfip uses league avg. xfip has more predictive power on average but can be misleading in a few cases

[Love The Action]

Hey Lta,

I agree lets beat the books. Anyway god1 is very arogant, I was looking at the previous trends in the bal vs bos matchups and just wanted to get some thoughts from other members on tonights game.

No worries bud....so what did you decide and why?

[investing4us]

Lta any thoughts on the bos game tonight?

[Redscot]

U guys ever use the site fangraphs for stats? Or just covers mainly?

Fangraphs is my #1 spot, but I use baseballreference.com a good deal too, as well as others.

[God1]

I would generally agree....except when people do use that screen name, you respond with this:



I find it hilarious that some people are so insecure that they feel better about themselves by baiting sheep into referring to them by a particular name and then feeling an "heir of superiority" in doing so

It has nothing to do with insecurity and everything to do with getting entertainment out of people who don't like me calling me god and seeing people who actually care enough about that to type out a different name

[Prof Bungletree]

Where do you get a -1RL. I can only get -1.5.

If your book doesn't offer it, you get pretty much the same result from 1/2 your bet on the ML, and 1/2 on -1.5.

[investing4us]

No worries bud....so what did you decide and why?

I am looking at taking the over at 10.5 but buying it down to 10. I have based my decession on the opening line at 5dimes was 10 (-125)now it is at 10.5 (-115) showing me that the books are juicing the over.The public betting percentage on the over is 82%.

[Love The Action]

When Detwiler was announced as the starter for game 2 the ML moved from +242 to +218 but the total went from over 7 -107 to over -117. How does that make sense?

I thought the same...the phils are familiar wirh detwiler and have hit him well, but that should affect both the total and ml similarly.

[God1]

Dunn in at cleanup for the night game, ozzie is just playing jokes on the sox before they fire him

[esbenp]

In addition, I suggest you stop referring to him by his screen name because that only feeds his pompous ego, which is undoubtedly the result of the many insecurities he must have in the real world (I bet when he looks in the mirror, he sees the "comic book guy" from the Simpsons ).

i lol'ed my ass off when i saw this.. Because it's the truth! Good quality picks threads like this one, are so often (unfortunately) spammed by lameass discussions like this, and it kinda ruins the thread, when you have to read through all that crap
If douche-bag-guy (new screen name?) is comic book guy, then that makes you Aslan

[Love The Action]

It has nothing to do with insecurity and everything to do with getting entertainment out of people who don't like me calling me god and seeing people who actually care enough about that to type out a different name

"Methinks the lady doth protest to much." Sorry...you can't have it both ways...you can't say it doesn't matter, but then try to hold it over peoples head when they do refer to such ridiculousness...

[Redscot]

I thought the same...the phils are familiar wirh detwiler and have hit him well, but that should affect both the total and ml similarly.

Increasing the total a touch. Detwiler is a 5 and fly guy, Washington BP 6th and part of 7th compared to him gives them a better chance of winning the game. May be a stretch, reaching here

[God1]

"Methinks the lady doth protest to much." Sorry...you can't have it both ways...you can't say it doesn't matter, but then try to hold it over peoples head when they do refer to such ridiculousness...

It doesn't matter, nothing that happens on an online message board matters. It's just funny whether they call me god or care enough to go out of their way not to. It's entertainment either way!

[Love The Action]

Dunn in at cleanup for the night game, ozzie is just playing jokes on the sox before they fire him

"He gone!"

And he's trying to shove Dunn in Kenny's face as he walks out the door. I can't imagine the marlins would give up morrison for ozzie...

[supr_villn]

the south siders run line is the play ,,
''real'' joke is on all u squares out there ..

NO
OFFENSE ,,
JUST
SAYING

[God1]

the inefficiency is astounding: cards rl from +129 to +115 and the ml only -172 to -175

[goldengreek]

I think it's hilarious that some people actually care about that enough to not call me by my full screen name. I'd happily refer to someone as Lord, God, or Master of the universe if that was their screen name. People take this stuff way too seriously

You mean like the ghost accts you used in my threads ? Lord and Master ?

What a fuking pvssy

[No coincidences]

Dunn in at cleanup for the night game, ozzie is just playing jokes on the sox before they fire him

Do you think they'll fire him before they fire Williams, or will the two go hand-and-hand into the abyss? They should.

[God1]

blue jays ml and rockies total have way overshot

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/20/11

Play #1

Giants/Dodgers under (5.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Padres/Rockies under (8.5)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Astros/Reds under (8)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Pittsburgh/AZ under (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Angels/Blue Jays over (9)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Play #6

Cardinals -1RL (-121) 1x (Locked)

Play #7

Marlins ML (+100) 1x (Locked)

I had to jump on the Marlins once I was able to get plus odds. This is a huge mismatch in starting pitchers, especially considering that the Marlins just saw Delgado and there will be no surprises. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

blue jays ml and rockies total have way overshot

Are you adding more to your Jays bet at -118?

[No coincidences]

Play #7

Marlins ML (+100) 1x (Locked)

I had to jump on the Marlins once I was able to get plus odds. This is a huge mismatch in starting pitchers, especially considering that the Marlins just saw Delgado and there will be no surprises. Good luck.

My only play tonight (unless I roll the dice with the Dodgers later).

Let's get it LTA.