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  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #1926
    I wish the Padre bats weren't so cold. I'd really like to back SD at +138 here.
    Comment
    • Love The Action
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-08-10
      • 10952

      #1927
      Originally posted by No coincidences
      I beat the closer with the Reds, Rockies and Twins tonight. None of them won.

      I've lost 8 of my last 11 games where I've beaten the closing number. I have a feeling I will have done so for tomorrow with the Cubs and Red Sox, but sadly, I've lost almost all confidence in doing so.

      I don't know if it's just a cold streak or what, but I haven't really gotten anywhere for a while now beating the closer (at least not like I have when I do so in football and basketball).
      I feel like a lot of people are struggling right now. Some weird things have been going on. I think September should show some consistent cappers success.

      At the end of the day, you can't control anything else in this business but getting the best possible price. You can't go on the field and make the play and very few people have access to non-market info. Therefore, as a capper, the only thing you can control is your ability to get the best available price on as many of your plays as possible. As long as you do that at high percentage on a consistent basis, the wins will come but you will save on a TON of juice along the way. That is where your profit will be earned. Generally, the more you beat the closer, the less your winning percentage can be and still show a profit (assuming you are not betting -200 favorites on a consistent basis and stick to totals, dogs and short faves).
      Comment
      • No coincidences
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-18-10
        • 76300

        #1928
        Originally posted by Love The Action
        I feel like a lot of people are struggling right now. Some weird things have been going on. I think September should show some consistent cappers success.

        At the end of the day, you can't control anything else in this business but getting the best possible price. You can't go on the field and make the play and very few people have access to non-market info. Therefore, as a capper, the only thing you can control is your ability to get the best available price on as many of your plays as possible. As long as you do that at high percentage on a consistent basis, the wins will come but you will save on a TON of juice along the way. That is where your profit will be earned. Generally, the more you beat the closer, the less your winning percentage can be and still show a profit (assuming you are not betting -200 favorites on a consistent basis and stick to totals, dogs and short faves).
        I just wonder if beating the closer in baseball is more moot because there are so many games and lines can't be as sharp.

        For instance, on Monday there were huge ML swings with Colorado and Minnesota. I got both of them early, so obviously, I felt confident I'd earn at least a split there and make a profit, having beaten the closer by double-digit cents in both instances. Instead, the Twins get blanked and the Rockies don't even bother showing up.

        So now I'm wondering -- were the books really taking sharp action on the Rockies and Twins, or were they simply adjusting to the fact that the lines they released were inflated? In other words, were they only correcting a price that was off to begin with, creating kind of a false RLM? I don't know -- I'm a big dog bettor, and I've been getting buried the past few weeks. Yet every time I turn around, some -200 fave is going down.

        I have to think/hope it's just a bad or unlucky spell, but my confidence is pretty shaken. I'm with you re: the Cubs Tuesday, but I can't go big right now because I feel like nothing is falling into place the way I have it capped.
        Comment
        • Love The Action
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-08-10
          • 10952

          #1929
          Originally posted by No coincidences
          I just wonder if beating the closer in baseball is more moot because there are so many games and lines can't be as sharp.

          For instance, on Monday there were huge ML swings with Colorado and Minnesota. I got both of them early, so obviously, I felt confident I'd earn at least a split there and make a profit, having beaten the closer by double-digit cents in both instances. Instead, the Twins get blanked and the Rockies don't even bother showing up.

          So now I'm wondering -- were the books really taking sharp action on the Rockies and Twins, or were they simply adjusting to the fact that the lines they released were inflated? In other words, were they only correcting a price that was off to begin with, creating kind of a false RLM? I don't know -- I'm a big dog bettor, and I've been getting buried the past few weeks. Yet every time I turn around, some -200 fave is going down.

          I have to think/hope it's just a bad or unlucky spell, but my confidence is pretty shaken. I'm with you re: the Cubs Tuesday, but I can't go big right now because I feel like nothing is falling into place the way I have it capped.
          Can't psych yourself out during a cold spell. We all go through it. Just stick with whatever works for you. Always seek ways to better your process, but never doubt yourself.

          If you beat the closer by twenty cents in each game, then those were the right plays but the wrong side. As long as you always get the best price, you will eventually be on the right side of a play with that extra twenty cents of value. Make sense?

          Think of it like this, had the Rockies and Twins won, you would have made more than 40 cents more than someone who bet the closing line. Extrapolate that profit over thousands of dollars and 100's of plays and it adds up. At the end of the day, if you keep getting that extra 20 cents of value on each play, the winners will eventually come and even out, but you will profit on a scale of 20 cents more than someone who bet at worse line.

          For example, say worst case scenarios is that you are a 50/50 capper but beat the closer consistently. In such a case, you can actually be profitable because you are getting a better price than the rest of the market. However, that assumes you don't go on tilt, can keep your discipline and don't make bailout plays. Remember, this is all about long term. Just keep doing what you're doing and you'll be fine.
          Comment
          • No coincidences
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-18-10
            • 76300

            #1930
            Originally posted by Love The Action
            Can't psych yourself out during a cold spell. We all go through it. Just stick with whatever works for you. Always seek ways to better your process, but never doubt yourself.

            If you beat the closer by twenty cents in each game, then those were the right plays but the wrong side. As long as you always get the best price, you will eventually be on the right side of a play with that extra twenty cents of value. Make sense?

            Think of it like this, had the Rockies and Twins won, you would have made more than 40 cents more than someone who bet the closing line. Extrapolate that profit over thousands of dollars and 100's of plays and it adds up. At the end of the day, if you keep getting that extra 20 cents of value on each play, the winners will eventually come and even out, but you will profit on a scale of 20 cents more than someone who bet at worse line.

            For example, say worst case scenarios is that you are a 50/50 capper but beat the closer consistently. In such a case, you can actually be profitable because you are getting a better price than the rest of the market. However, that assumes you don't go on tilt, can keep your discipline and don't make bailout plays. Remember, this is all about long term. Just keep doing what you're doing and you'll be fine.


            I've been telling myself that for the past 9 days now though, and my bankroll keeps shrinking....

            Honestly, I was ready to hang it up after losing the Nats play Sunday. That was one of the most frustrating losses of the year for me. I should've taken a break today after that one. Instead, I come back with another 3U play on the Reds and then they turn around and lose by a run.

            Comment
            • Love The Action
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-08-10
              • 10952

              #1931
              Originally posted by No coincidences


              I've been telling myself that for the past 9 days now though, and my bankroll keeps shrinking....

              Honestly, I was ready to hang it up after losing the Nats play Sunday. That was one of the most frustrating losses of the year for me. I should've taken a break today after that one. Instead, I come back with another 3U play on the Reds and then they turn around and lose by a run.

              That's baseball...and sports investing...for better or worse. Nothing we can about those ones....
              Comment
              • Love The Action
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-08-10
                • 10952

                #1932
                Originally posted by Love The Action
                MLB 8/30/11

                Play #1

                Cubs ML (+134) 1.25x (Locked)

                If I was not slumping right now, I would take this for at least 2x. I really like the Cubs in this spot as they have the better offense and starting pitcher, with a bullpen that is equal to or better than the current state of the Giants bullpen. Let's face it, the Giants' bullpen is shell of its former self. I respect that the Giants are a top 10 defense, and much better than the Cubs, but the Cubs are playing just a bit better right now. Plus, the edge in starting pitching this matchup is pronounced. Garza has a 3.8 WAR compared to Vogelsong's to 2.1 and Garza has the advantage by almost a full run with respect to FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA with Garza's numbers in the low 3's while Vogelsong is in the low 4's or 3.9's. Garza is a much better strikeout pitcher that has been the victim of piss poor defense, much of it his own doing like last game versus the Braves where his first inning error cost him 3 unearned runs. Nevertheless, Garza is far and away the better pitcher in this matchup. If you go up and down the projected lineups right now, the Giants don't have anyone that can compare to elite hitters like the Cubs' Castro and Rodriguez. Plus, the second tier hitters on the Cubs are better than those types of hitters on the Giants. Finally, as sad as it is to say, I would rather have the Marshall/Wood to Marmol relief combination than relying on what the Giants are putting out there right now. I really wish the Cubs would have gotten killed on Monday night, so as to generate some more Giants support, but I have to play the Cubs here. I have the Cubs at +121 in this, so we are getting 13 cents in value here. I think it's definitely fishy that the Giants opened as -145 at Pinny, which was the same at Greek and MB, because Pinny usually posts cheaper favorites. Nevertheless, I am very confident this one gets down to the +120 range by game time and we beat the closer on this one. Good luck.

                Play #2

                Padres/Dodgers under (6.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

                I have this one at 5.6, almost a full run off the total and I expect a closing price that has the under juiced at -115 or more so we should save ourselves about 15 cents from buying this one early. I have backed Stauffer quite a bit this season, not always successful, but more often than not. Although he has regressed and seen his WAR rating slide down to 1.1, he remains a successful guy because of his consistency. Out of his 27 starts this season, he has only given up more than 3 earned runs seven times. That's pretty consistent. It's the same way with Kuroda, who only had five games of giving up more than 3 earned runs in his 25+ starts this season. Plus, as we all know, Kuroda would have a much better record if he received a bit more run support. Both pitchers are in the 3.5 to 3.9 range for FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA but the key to this play is both pitchers ability to get both strikeouts and ground balls outs. Both of these pitchers have that rare ability as evidenced by K%'s over 16% and his GB/FB's from 1.3 to 1.8. Iassogna is the ump and he is going on his second year of having an under lean after pretty even o/u results for the earlier part of his career. His strike percentage comes in at about 62.5%, so it could be a bit better, but his runs/game/avg is pretty solid for under players at 7.9. I am going to take the under in this series two game in a row and roll with the under here for 1x. Good luck.
                Off to bed. I will have at least one more play for sure and maybe two. I am very interested in the KC/Detroit game. See ya in a few hours.
                Comment
                • guil0000
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 01-18-11
                  • 472

                  #1933
                  LTA, Where do you get your projected lineups?
                  Comment
                  • Love The Action
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 11-08-10
                    • 10952

                    #1934
                    Originally posted by guil0000
                    LTA, Where do you get your projected lineups?
                    Check out baseballpress.com for early lineup info. For projected lineups, you have to do that yourself based on previous lefty/righty matchups that the subject teams have used and then check all the individual matchup results.
                    Comment
                    • JR007
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 02-21-10
                      • 5279

                      #1935
                      on beating...the closer, not so sure, the logic is there and many books state that, that i have read but i have also read other trains of thought, think( ganchow) not sure, mentions betting into the open early when you see the move, on the closer, you never know if the line will move against you, plus you have a "law of diminishing"
                      returns"...the more games bet, the less, predictability, this concept will work , maybe everything adjusts itself to the mean eventually, ...... ,
                      Comment
                      • Love The Action
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-08-10
                        • 10952

                        #1936
                        Originally posted by JR007
                        on beating...the closer, not so sure, the logic is there and many books state that, that i have read but i have also read other trains of thought, think( ganchow) not sure, mentions betting into the open early when you see the move, on the closer, you never know if the line will move against you, plus you have a "law of diminishing"
                        returns"...the more games bet, the less, predictability, this concept will work , maybe everything adjusts itself to the mean eventually, ...... ,
                        The difficulty is knowing where the line move. It is a skill to be able to accurately and consitently predict which way the line will move upon opening. That is the key.
                        Comment
                        • No coincidences
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-18-10
                          • 76300

                          #1937
                          Originally posted by Love The Action
                          The difficulty is knowing where the line move. It is a skill to be able to accurately and consitently predict which way the line will move upon opening. That is the key.
                          Is there any advantage to waiting to see what the line does at 10 a.m. and again right before first pitch/tip/kickoff? Sure you're compromising a better number, but a lot of times, early movement isn't an indication of what the true play is going to be.
                          Comment
                          • No coincidences
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 01-18-10
                            • 76300

                            #1938
                            Really wondering why that Cubs line hasn't moved yet.
                            Comment
                            • Love The Action
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-08-10
                              • 10952

                              #1939
                              Originally posted by Love The Action
                              MLB 8/30/11

                              Play #1

                              Cubs ML (+134) 1.25x (Locked)

                              If I was not slumping right now, I would take this for at least 2x. I really like the Cubs in this spot as they have the better offense and starting pitcher, with a bullpen that is equal to or better than the current state of the Giants bullpen. Let's face it, the Giants' bullpen is shell of its former self. I respect that the Giants are a top 10 defense, and much better than the Cubs, but the Cubs are playing just a bit better right now. Plus, the edge in starting pitching this matchup is pronounced. Garza has a 3.8 WAR compared to Vogelsong's to 2.1 and Garza has the advantage by almost a full run with respect to FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA with Garza's numbers in the low 3's while Vogelsong is in the low 4's or 3.9's. Garza is a much better strikeout pitcher that has been the victim of piss poor defense, much of it his own doing like last game versus the Braves where his first inning error cost him 3 unearned runs. Nevertheless, Garza is far and away the better pitcher in this matchup. If you go up and down the projected lineups right now, the Giants don't have anyone that can compare to elite hitters like the Cubs' Castro and Rodriguez. Plus, the second tier hitters on the Cubs are better than those types of hitters on the Giants. Finally, as sad as it is to say, I would rather have the Marshall/Wood to Marmol relief combination than relying on what the Giants are putting out there right now. I really wish the Cubs would have gotten killed on Monday night, so as to generate some more Giants support, but I have to play the Cubs here. I have the Cubs at +121 in this, so we are getting 13 cents in value here. I think it's definitely fishy that the Giants opened as -145 at Pinny, which was the same at Greek and MB, because Pinny usually posts cheaper favorites. Nevertheless, I am very confident this one gets down to the +120 range by game time and we beat the closer on this one. Good luck.

                              Play #2

                              Padres/Dodgers under (6.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

                              I have this one at 5.6, almost a full run off the total and I expect a closing price that has the under juiced at -115 or more so we should save ourselves about 15 cents from buying this one early. I have backed Stauffer quite a bit this season, not always successful, but more often than not. Although he has regressed and seen his WAR rating slide down to 1.1, he remains a successful guy because of his consistency. Out of his 27 starts this season, he has only given up more than 3 earned runs seven times. That's pretty consistent. It's the same way with Kuroda, who only had five games of giving up more than 3 earned runs in his 25+ starts this season. Plus, as we all know, Kuroda would have a much better record if he received a bit more run support. Both pitchers are in the 3.5 to 3.9 range for FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA but the key to this play is both pitchers ability to get both strikeouts and ground balls outs. Both of these pitchers have that rare ability as evidenced by K%'s over 16% and his GB/FB's from 1.3 to 1.8. Iassogna is the ump and he is going on his second year of having an under lean after pretty even o/u results for the earlier part of his career. His strike percentage comes in at about 62.5%, so it could be a bit better, but his runs/game/avg is pretty solid for under players at 7.9. I am going to take the under in this series two game in a row and roll with the under here for 1x. Good luck.

                              Play #3

                              Royals/Tigers under (9)(-120) 1x (Locked)


                              Had a writeup all ready to go and my phone froze. I don't have time for another full one but I will say that Francis is very underrated and Fister is solid across the board. Cuzzi is a big under ump two of the last three years and very profitable on the under this year. We got a better than market price at 9, even with the -120 juice and I am not sure pinny will ever go up to 9 even though everyone is on the over. Keep an eye on this one because if pinny, greek and mb stay at 8.5, that is telling. I jumped at 9 as soon as I saw it
                              because I think we see rlm on the under at some point as sharp money comes in. Both pitchers have fared well against the opposing line ups and are be able to force ground balls and keep the ball in the park. The wind is
                              blowing across field so that helps as well. Everyone is on the over here which helped us get a good number at 9 but I think it will close at 8.5 even with the majority of all bets on the over. If you can get 9 and you like this play, you should take it now. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                              Comment
                              • Love The Action
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-08-10
                                • 10952

                                #1940
                                Originally posted by No coincidences
                                Is there any advantage to waiting to see what the line does at 10 a.m. and again right before first pitch/tip/kickoff? Sure you're compromising a better number, but a lot of times, early movement isn't an indication of what the true play is going to be.
                                Why would you wait if you can accurately predict where the line will close and get a better price early?
                                Comment
                                • ebemiss
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 05-09-11
                                  • 364

                                  #1941
                                  Originally posted by No coincidences
                                  I beat the closer with the Reds, Rockies and Twins tonight. None of them won.

                                  I've lost 8 of my last 11 games where I've beaten the closing number. I have a feeling I will have done so for tomorrow with the Cubs and Red Sox, but sadly, I've lost almost all confidence in doing so.

                                  I don't know if it's just a cold streak or what, but I haven't really gotten anywhere for a while now beating the closer (at least not like I have when I do so in football and basketball).
                                  Here's some friendly advice and my opinion after winning and losing bets for a lot of years. F**k BEATING the closing line. Can't say it any clearer. If you are beating the closing line and LOSING games, you are doing something wrong. It means you are on the wrong side and most likely betting games that the public are moving not wiseguys. You get it. When you win a bet and beat the closer it's sharp, when you beat the closer and lose, it's public. Not every time, but more times than anyone will admit.

                                  The problem is the public is moving the lines giving you "perceived" value on your public side/total. It's not value when you lose. People can brag about beating the closing line, but they better be delivering winners or you sound like a sucker. I mean 55-60% winners. Beating closing lines and picking 51-52% is barely better than flipping a coin. Give me a break.

                                  Couple things to think about.

                                  -Handicap the game without knowing the line or create a line of your own. If the actual line is fair, make your bet. Don't over think a .5 pt drop on a game or 10 cents on a line if you think you have a winning play. Picking the winning side or total is still what puts money in, or takes money out of your pocket. Go tell the bookie you beat his closing line and lost 8 of 11 and see if you get a discount when you pay.

                                  -If you think you have a winning play compared to the line you are getting, play it, if not pass. A small drop or boost in the line shouldn't effect a strong play. If you are worried about 5 cents or a 1 point difference in the opener, you might as well scrap your handicapping methods and try something else. Your play couldn't have been that strong to begin with if you let that take you off a play. Here's an idea, don't beat the closer by a .5 point or 4 cents and actually win the bet.

                                  -Doesn't matter how you came about the play, whether it be a statistical model, just stats, tailing someone or your grandma's dog whispered the Dodgers in your ear. Don't pass on a winning play because the line dropped 4 cents and brag that you beat a closing line on a game you lost 9-1.

                                  I read this crap everyday on this and other forums and people still don't get it. If I have to read one more time that someone had a winning side but didn't play it, I'm going to puke. Play it.

                                  The moral of the story...If you can pick winners, the line rarely matters. Especially picking a side in baseball using a money line. Just pick the winner and you win. I'm not saying searching for value isn't important, it is, just not as important as PICKING WINNERS. You may lose an occasional bet by a half point but in the long run changing your thinking will help more than finding any "perceived" value on a closing line.
                                  Comment
                                  • Love The Action
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 11-08-10
                                    • 10952

                                    #1942
                                    Originally posted by ebemiss
                                    Here's some friendly advice and my opinion after winning and losing bets for a lot of years. F**k BEATING the closing line. Can't say it any clearer. If you are beating the closing line and LOSING games, you are doing something wrong. It means you are on the wrong side and most likely betting games that the public are moving not wiseguys. You get it. When you win a bet and beat the closer it's sharp, when you beat the closer and lose, it's public. Not every time, but more times than anyone will admit.

                                    The problem is the public is moving the lines giving you "perceived" value on your public side/total. It's not value when you lose. People can brag about beating the closing line, but they better be delivering winners or you sound like a sucker. I mean 55-60% winners. Beating closing lines and picking 51-52% is barely better than flipping a coin. Give me a break.

                                    Couple things to think about.

                                    -Handicap the game without knowing the line or create a line of your own. If the actual line is fair, make your bet. Don't over think a .5 pt drop on a game or 10 cents on a line if you think you have a winning play. Picking the winning side or total is still what puts money in, or takes money out of your pocket. Go tell the bookie you beat his closing line and lost 8 of 11 and see if you get a discount when you pay.

                                    -If you think you have a winning play compared to the line you are getting, play it, if not pass. A small drop or boost in the line shouldn't effect a strong play. If you are worried about 5 cents or a 1 point difference in the opener, you might as well scrap your handicapping methods and try something else. Your play couldn't have been that strong to begin with if you let that take you off a play. Here's an idea, don't beat the closer by a .5 point or 4 cents and actually win the bet.

                                    -Doesn't matter how you came about the play, whether it be a statistical model, just stats, tailing someone or your grandma's dog whispered the Dodgers in your ear. Don't pass on a winning play because the line dropped 4 cents and brag that you beat a closing line on a game you lost 9-1.

                                    I read this crap everyday on this and other forums and people still don't get it. If I have to read one more time that someone had a winning side but didn't play it, I'm going to puke. Play it.

                                    The moral of the story...If you can pick winners, the line rarely matters. Especially picking a side in baseball using a money line. Just pick the winner and you win. I'm not saying searching for value isn't important, it is, just not as important as PICKING WINNERS. You may lose an occasional bet by a half point but in the long run changing your thinking will help more than finding any "perceived" value on a closing line.
                                    Ofcourse, the easiest thing to say is picking "winners" is the most important. However, you have no control over all the factors that lead to a winning play, while you can control whether you beat a closing line. Plus, how many people can hit at 55% or more like you say over 600 or more plays during an entire mlb season. Such results are extremely rare if not impossible. Therefore, beating the closer consistently will allow you to profit with a lower winning percentage.

                                    For example, say you have two cappers that both hit at 53% long term, but one of them beats the closer at a much higher rate. Who will make more money? The answer is the capper that gets the best price and beats the closer on a consistent basis.

                                    Why do think RAS, who I believe you follow based on a previous discussion we have had, tracks his line value versus the closer? The answer is because beating the closer consitently equals more profit. This is especially true for overwhelming majority of us that cant pick winners at 60% long term. Do you disagree?
                                    Comment
                                    • chihawks
                                      SBR Rookie
                                      • 05-18-11
                                      • 31

                                      #1943
                                      LTA I appreciate your analysis on the games but have a question on the det\kc under. What does your model have for a total? I question because the detroit trend to the over againts losing teams this year. (38-20 OU) I dont see the 9 at my book, 8.5.

                                      I am looking at chi sox\minny under. trend is 8-10 under this year. Minny not scoring lately. two ok pitchers. What is your lean in this game. Asking because of your betting of totals. Thanks.
                                      Comment
                                      • ebemiss
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 05-09-11
                                        • 364

                                        #1944
                                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                                        Ofcourse, the easiest thing to say is picking "winners" is the most important. However, you have no control over all the factors that lead to a winning play, while you can control whether you beat a closing line. Plus, how many people can hit at 55% or more like you say over 600 or more plays during an entire mlb season. Such results are extremely rare if not impossible. Therefore, beating the closer consistently will allow you to profit with a lower winning percentage.

                                        For example, say you have two cappers that both hit at 53% long term, but one of them beats the closer at a much higher rate. Who will make more money? The answer is the capper that gets the best price and beats the closer on a consistent basis.

                                        Why do think RAS, who I believe you follow based on a previous discussion we have had, tracks his line value versus the closer? The answer is because beating the closer consitently equals more profit. This is especially true for overwhelming majority of us that cant pick winners at 60% long term. Do you disagree?
                                        You have all kinds of information that will lead you to a winning play. I don't agree at all. If you think all that it takes when making plays is to beat the closing line, that thinking won't be successful. Beating the closer doesn't matter if you ARE PICKING LOSERS.

                                        I also don't follow anyone. I respect RAS but if you notice our plays are almost never the same. Our styles of handicapping our obviously different. And of course he'll beat the closing line for two main reasons:

                                        1.BIG ONE. He Picks Winners.
                                        2. He has a following. They move the line on plays that win way more than they lose.

                                        That's why he stresses that in marketing his service.
                                        Comment
                                        • Love The Action
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-08-10
                                          • 10952

                                          #1945
                                          Originally posted by ebemiss
                                          You have all kinds of information that will lead you to a winning play. I don't agree at all. If you think all that it takes when making plays is to beat the closing line, that thinking won't be successful. Beating the closer doesn't matter if you ARE PICKING LOSERS.

                                          I also don't follow anyone. I respect RAS but if you notice our plays are almost never the same. Our styles of handicapping our obviously different. And of course he'll beat the closing line for two main reasons:

                                          1.BIG ONE. He Picks Winners.
                                          2. He has a following. They move the line on plays that win way more than they lose.

                                          That's why he stresses that in marketing his service.
                                          Sorry...i was referring to my hypo. Who makes more money, the 53% capper that consitently beats the closing line or the 53% capper that bets into bad numbers?
                                          Comment
                                          • ebemiss
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 05-09-11
                                            • 364

                                            #1946
                                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                                            Sorry...i was referring to my hypo. Who makes more money, the 53% capper that consitently beats the closing line or the 53% capper that bets into bad numbers?
                                            Since I don't have the 500+ bets in front of me from your made up situation it's kind of hard.

                                            Maybe the capper that bets into bad numbers plays strictly dogs and bet them at +140 when he felt that was enough value and the line closed at +150 because a "public" starting pitcher was on the mound. He wins but doesn't beat the closer........

                                            Meanwhile favorite bettor got the line at -150 and closed at -160. He beat the closing line, but lost. I can't argue this anymore and don't want to. Was just trying to help a guy in a post above that's all.

                                            Closing line doesn't matter if you are on the right side.
                                            Last edited by ebemiss; 08-30-11, 12:42 PM.
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                                            • No coincidences
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 01-18-10
                                              • 76300

                                              #1947
                                              Originally posted by ebemiss
                                              Since I don't have the 500+ bets in front of me from your made up situation it's kind of hard.

                                              Maybe the capper that bets into bad numbers plays strictly dogs and bet them at +140 when he felt that was enough value and the line closed at +150 because a "public" starting pitcher was on the mound. He wins but doesn't beat the closer........

                                              Meanwhile favorite bettor got the line at -150 and closed at -160. He beat the closing line, but lost. I can't argue this anymore and don't want to. Was just trying to help a guy in a post above that's all.

                                              Closing line doesn't matter if you are on the right side.
                                              What is typically beneficial is if you can beat a closing number with the public on the other side. In theory, obviously, that is ideal. However, I did that last night with the Reds, Rockies and Twins, and look where it got me -- 0-3.
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                                              • ebemiss
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 05-09-11
                                                • 364

                                                #1948
                                                Here's the problem, your perception of who the public is on. From the line moves based on opening numbers. You were on 2 very public plays, Minnesota and Colorado. Red's moved 1 cent, towards the winning side.


                                                Get real-time scores, betting lines, and betting odds for all your favorite sports.
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                                                • ebemiss
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                                                  • 05-09-11
                                                  • 364

                                                  #1949
                                                  Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                  What is typically beneficial is if you can beat a closing number with the public on the other side. In theory, obviously, that is ideal. However, I did that last night with the Reds, Rockies and Twins, and look where it got me -- 0-3.
                                                  Here's another question. Did you have a distinct advantage with any of those plays? Better pitcher, bullpen, offensive, L10 hot/cold or other factors. Or did you play the game because of "perceived" value, being that they were enticing dogs.

                                                  Value is great, but you better have an advantage with that dog or something that has worked consistently in the past. That's where we all can correct mistakes.

                                                  If you are losing because of the same mistakes, learn from it and try to correct them.
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                                                  • No coincidences
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
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                                                    #1950
                                                    Originally posted by ebemiss
                                                    Here's the problem, your perception of who the public is on. From the line moves based on opening numbers. You were on 2 very public plays, Minnesota and Colorado. Red's moved 1 cent, towards the winning side.


                                                    http://www.scoresandodds.com/yesterday.html?sort=rot
                                                    Reds opened at +136 and closed at +128 at Pinny. I got them at +135 at my book.

                                                    Where are you seeing that the Twins and Rockies were "very public plays" yesterday?
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                                                    • ebemiss
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                                                      • 05-09-11
                                                      • 364

                                                      #1951
                                                      Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                      Reds opened at +136 and closed at +128 at Pinny. I got them at +135 at my book.

                                                      Where are you seeing that the Twins and Rockies were "very public plays" yesterday?
                                                      Both favorites opened around -200 went off way less. Wasn't sharp money going against Hudson and Buehrle.
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                                                      • No coincidences
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                                                        #1952
                                                        Originally posted by ebemiss
                                                        Both favorites opened around -200 went off way less. Wasn't sharp money going against Hudson and Buehrle.
                                                        Again, where are you seeing this?

                                                        I'd like to compare it with the numbers I had.

                                                        Hudson opened at -168.
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                                                        • ebemiss
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                                                          • 05-09-11
                                                          • 364

                                                          #1953
                                                          Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                          Again, where are you seeing this?

                                                          I'd like to compare it with the numbers I had.

                                                          Hudson opened at -168.
                                                          From the link I posted. Listen good luck with the plays. Just was giving my opinion on closing line "value". Play what you want.
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                                                          • No coincidences
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
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                                                            #1954
                                                            Originally posted by ebemiss
                                                            From the link I posted. Listen good luck with the plays. Just was giving my opinion on closing line "value". Play what you want.
                                                            I see the numbers for today's games, but I'm trying to find yesterday's. Maybe I'm just not clicking in the rights spots.

                                                            Where do they get these numbers from? Are they aggregate?
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                                                            • ebemiss
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                                                              • 05-09-11
                                                              • 364

                                                              #1955
                                                              click the link that says yesterday, top left
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                                                              • slyone66
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 10-08-09
                                                                • 578

                                                                #1956
                                                                heres a post about closer came across LTA
                                                                We all can agree Pinnacle sports is razor sharp and read below how they identify long term winners "Sharp Accounts"



                                                                If a player consistently beats our closing price at Pinnacle Sports, he is likely to be a long-term winner - period. Interestingly, we have found that this test is more reflective of a player's future winning potential than their historical win/loss record with the company.
                                                                For example, if our closing price on the Eagles was -3 -104 and a customer played -3 +105 earlier in the week - that was a sharp bet. When a player can anticipate the line movement and does this consistently over a series of 100 bets or more, that player is conclusively sharp and will be up substantially in the long run.
                                                                What's the quickest way to identify a player that needs to adjust their style of betting? One who pays a bad price. If other online sports books offer the Eagles at -3 -120 and a player wagers there instead when a better price was available elsewhere such as -3 -104 at Pinnacle Sports, he is almost certainly not sharp. Even if he has been winning thus far, that player will probably lose over time.
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                                                                • Love The Action
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 11-08-10
                                                                  • 10952

                                                                  #1957
                                                                  Originally posted by ebemiss
                                                                  Since I don't have the 500+ bets in front of me from your made up situation it's kind of hard.

                                                                  Maybe the capper that bets into bad numbers plays strictly dogs and bet them at +140 when he felt that was enough value and the line closed at +150 because a "public" starting pitcher was on the mound. He wins but doesn't beat the closer........

                                                                  Meanwhile favorite bettor got the line at -150 and closed at -160. He beat the closing line, but lost. I can't argue this anymore and don't want to. Was just trying to help a guy in a post above that's all.

                                                                  Closing line doesn't matter if you are on the right side.
                                                                  The closing line makes all the difference because of the vig. Just think about it as it's basic math. If two cappers both hit 53% of 100 plays, but one of the cappers gets consistent price at -110 and the other gets a consistent price of -115, the capper that gets -110 will make more money because he will pay less vig. This is a fact, cannot be disputed and clearly illustrates why getting the best price (aka beating the closer) is so important. This is especially in true in baseball and shows why your statement that "beating the closer doesn't matter as long as you are on the right side" is too simplistic.. Beating the closer puts MORE money in your account because you pay less juice.

                                                                  Good discussion here though. I wish I was not at work and could participate more. Good luck today.
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                                                                  • ebemiss
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 05-09-11
                                                                    • 364

                                                                    #1958
                                                                    Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                    The closing line makes all the difference because of the vig. Just think about it as it's basic math. If two cappers both hit 53% of 100 plays, but one of the cappers gets consistent price at -110 and the other gets a consistent price of -115, the capper that gets -110 will make more money because he will pay less vig. This is a fact, cannot be disputed and clearly illustrates why getting the best price (aka beating the closer) is so important. This is especially in true in baseball and shows why your statement that "beating the closer doesn't matter as long as you are on the right side" is too simplistic.. Beating the closer puts MORE money in your account because you pay less juice.

                                                                    Good discussion here though. I wish I was not at work and could participate more. Good luck today.
                                                                    It's not too simplistic, its' a fact. Beating the closing line is irrelevant. Beating the game or book is most important. Your new example, after you didn't like my answer to your last example, is elementary. Good luck beating the closing line. I'll continue to look for angles to actually win the game or total regardless of where the line ends up.
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                                                                    • Love The Action
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 11-08-10
                                                                      • 10952

                                                                      #1959
                                                                      Originally posted by ebemiss
                                                                      It's not too simplistic, its' a fact. Beating the closing line is irrelevant. Beating the game or book is most important. Your new example, after you didn't like my answer to your last example, is elementary. Good luck beating the closing line. I'll continue to look for angles to actually win the game or total regardless of where the line ends up.
                                                                      Ok, but you are trying to refute something that is a mathematical fact.

                                                                      Getting the best price on a consitent basis is the number one thing you can do ensure profit. The wins and losses will even out. Ofcourse you have to win more than you lose for a true benefit to show, however, someone that hits 51% of their plays can make more money than someone who hits 52% of their plays, just by getting the best number and beating the closer. This is a standard principle of sports investing and I can forward the citations to that effect if you wish. There is no reason or grounds to argue against that point, but do as you wish. However, it's kind of like saying you believe the world is flat when you say that beating closers is not important. This is a generally accepted fact of sports investing.

                                                                      Good luck bud.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • ebemiss
                                                                        Restricted User
                                                                        • 05-09-11
                                                                        • 364

                                                                        #1960
                                                                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                        Ok, but you are trying to refute something that is a mathematical fact.

                                                                        Getting the best price on a consitent basis is the number one thing you can do ensure profit. The wins and losses will even out. Ofcourse you have to win more than you lose for a true benefit to show, however, someone that hits 51% of their plays can make more money than someone who hits 52% of their plays, just by getting the best number and beating the closer. This is a standard principle of sports investing and I can forward the citations to that effect if you wish. There is no reason or grounds to argue against that point, but do as you wish. However, it's kind of like saying you believe the world is flat when you say that beating closers is not important. This is a generally accepted fact of sports investing.

                                                                        Good luck bud.
                                                                        Once again you are making each bettor out to betting EXACT the same games. Using your totally unrealistic model, YES beyond a doubt simple math rules. HOWEVER in real gambling no one is betting the exact same games. Using my example above :

                                                                        Since I don't have the 500+ bets in front of me from your made up situation it's kind of hard.

                                                                        Maybe the capper that bets into bad numbers plays strictly dogs and bet them at +140 when he felt that was enough value and the line closed at +150 because a "public" starting pitcher was on the mound. He wins but doesn't beat the closer........

                                                                        Meanwhile favorite bettor got the line at -150 and closed at -160. He beat the closing line, but lost. I can't argue this anymore and don't want to.

                                                                        It's hard to argue with a guy who's posted 700 games and has just over +20 units. I totally get it. You've mastered beating the closing line, sometimes, and have averaged 3 units per 100 plays, using units 1-10 as plays.

                                                                        I on the other hand have played just over 100 plays, and I'm basically at the same units.

                                                                        Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.


                                                                        Both at sports we claim to be good at. Except I have roughly 600 more plays to gain 3 units.

                                                                        Joke. Continued success at beating the closer, but it sounds like you have it all figured out and i don't have a clue. Hard to argue. Good luck
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