LTA's MLB Plays

**Full-Grown** · 08-25-11, 09:19 AM

Here's the weather forecast for the Cubs game. Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to center field at 15-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 85.

I'm not familiar with how the weather works with but I'm guessing with the steam to the over that they're expecting some balls to fly out today. Both pitchers have great advanced stats so without the wind I would love the under. I know Beachy's worst game this year was against Colorado in Colorado. So maybe he has another bad one cuz of the weather. Garza's used to pitching in Chicago in whatever weather. I see some nice value in the Cubs at + money today. What you think LTA?

**Full-Grown** · 08-25-11, 09:24 AM

Garza also with a 2.61 era at home this year and a 1.80 era in the month of August overall.

**firehoyt** · 08-25-11, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by Full-Grown

Thanks for the tip firehoyt. And if that's your woman you are one lucky man!!!

No problem! Not my lady but I know her. BOL today!

**BennyFang** · 08-25-11, 09:55 AM

From a Braves fan FYI, Beachy is a fly ball pitcher and the Cubs just saw him 11 days ago.

**Love The Action** · 08-25-11, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by Full-Grown

Here's the weather forecast for the Cubs game. Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to center field at 15-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 85.

I'm not familiar with how the weather works with but I'm guessing with the steam to the over that they're expecting some balls to fly out today. Both pitchers have great advanced stats so without the wind I would love the under. I know Beachy's worst game this year was against Colorado in Colorado. So maybe he has another bad one cuz of the weather. Garza's used to pitching in Chicago in whatever weather. I see some nice value in the Cubs at + money today. What you think LTA?

Hey bud...just an fyi, that was yesterdays weather. The wind is blowing in from the north today at 10 mph, so that is a bit helpful to an under play. I am considering it 7.5 as my model has that one at 6.8.

Back in a bit. Everyone has some great analysis in here. That tigers under steamed big time, so it's too late for a play in that one. Still lean to the tigers though, even without the new dad cabrera. That yanks under is interesting, but no play for me. Going to have a small card today. GL.

**guil0000** · 08-25-11, 10:00 AM

Full grown I love the Cubs now for a few reasons.
First is the reason you just mentioned Garza is good at home.
Then if the wind is blowing the way you mentioned. It's the only direction that favors the over on that stadium.
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/stadiums/2011/stadium2998_overall.html

If we take a good look at both starting pitchers we see that their are both similar in dominance K/BB, ERA, Runs. Etc. The only thing that stands out to me is the HR/ IP ratio and GB/Fly Ball ratio. Garza has an outstanding GB/FB Ratio (2.38) while Beachy's is pretty awful (0.87). He allows more homeruns also. So with a favorable wind I like Garza. Combine that with the cubs pretty hot bats and hot bullpen and I think we have a play.

**Full-Grown** · 08-25-11, 10:00 AM

Originally posted by BennyFang

From a Braves fan FYI, Beachy is a fly ball pitcher and the Cubs just saw him 11 days ago.

Just looked at his advanced stats as you're damn sure right about that with 47.5% of his balls are fly balls and a .68 gb to flyball ratio. I'm just clueless to if my weather forecast I reported means anything.

**guil0000** · 08-25-11, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Hey bud...just an fyi, that was yesterdays weather. The wind is blowing in from the north today at 10 mph, so that is a bit helpful to an under play. I am considering it 7.5 as my model has that one at 6.8.

Back in a bit. Everyone has some great analysis in here. That tigers under steamed big time, so it's too late for a play in that one. Still lean to the tigers though, even without the new dad cabrera. That yanks under is interesting, but no play for me. Going to have a small card today. GL.

there goes my analysis of the cubs/Cards game

**Full-Grown** · 08-25-11, 10:07 AM

Thanks Guil, didn't see this till after I posted. I was leaning Cubs last night before the weather just because of the + money. Him being a fly ball pitcher and him having his worst game in Colorado this year giving up 6 runs in 4.2 innings to me makes it a stronger play. Always love fading the public as well. Home field advantage too.

Give me the Cubs at + money. Lets get it!!! Cheers!

**Full-Grown** · 08-25-11, 10:07 AM

OH geez, my bad. WTF

**Full-Grown** · 08-25-11, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by guil0000

there goes my analysis of the cubs/Cards game

Yeah, me too, wtf.

Alright, here's today's weather report: Partly cloudy. Winds blowing in from left field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Near 80.

**GGALLERT** · 08-25-11, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Thanks for the tip Fire...I don't have a Twitter but will check it out. Thanks and good luck today!

Also another good one is @oddsmaker, follow me @ggallert

**Full-Grown** · 08-25-11, 10:18 AM

A ton of money just came in on the Cubs now as we were talking about this though. RLM on the game now. Line just dropped 8 cents in 10 minutes. Wish I would have hit submit 10 minutes ago, lol.

**GGALLERT** · 08-25-11, 10:18 AM

Fellas for twitter there are a ton of different handicappers and "suggestors" on there, check me @ggallert, take a look at who I follow along with who is following me. Its all about beating the books!!! GL

**Full-Grown** · 08-25-11, 10:23 AM

Money also coming in on the over so they must be thinking the same thing. And wind coming in from left has been 3-2 to the o/u this year according to that thing you posted Guil. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/stadiums/2011/stadium2998_overall.html

**Full-Grown** · 08-25-11, 10:23 AM

Lets go Cubs!!!

**Full-Grown** · 08-25-11, 10:25 AM

Pretty ******* insane that the line movement happened right when this conversation started, lol.

**Love The Action** · 08-25-11, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by Full-Grown

A ton of money just came in on the Cubs now as we were talking about this though. RLM on the game now. Line just dropped 8 cents in 10 minutes. Wish I would have hit submit 10 minutes ago, lol.

Yep...all value has been sucked out of the cubs...

**guil0000** · 08-25-11, 10:32 AM

I know I missed the best line and I'm not sure there's still value now. I hate getting worst lines

**guil0000** · 08-25-11, 10:36 AM

last hope is those slow moving European book lines. Let's see if I can find a good line lol

**guil0000** · 08-25-11, 10:38 AM

Weird stuff happening in the TB/Det total also.

**Love The Action** · 08-25-11, 10:44 AM

Avila out of the tigers lineup...that sucks but explains the steam...

**Donnie Brasco** · 08-25-11, 10:48 AM

What site u guys use to track lines?

**Love The Action** · 08-25-11, 10:59 AM

Leaning to the over in Toronto and Boston....

**GGALLERT** · 08-25-11, 11:10 AM

Det-Tam U7.5 LTA shoot me some luck...

**Love The Action** · 08-25-11, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Hey bud...just an fyi, that was yesterdays weather. The wind is blowing in from the north today at 10 mph, so that is a bit helpful to a cubs under play. I am considering it 7.5 as my model has that one at 6.8.

Still looking at an early play on the cubs under but I want to see where the line goes in these next hour.

**Full-Grown** · 08-25-11, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Yep...all value has been sucked out of the cubs...

Still like the value. GL on whatever you decide. On the Pitt StL under too. Let's kill them books today!!!

**Love The Action** · 08-25-11, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by Full-Grown

Still like the value. GL on whatever you decide. On the Pitt StL under too. Let's kill them books today!!!

I think you got it early enough at plus odds though...i was talking about slow pokes like myself...good luck!

**Full-Grown** · 08-25-11, 12:13 PM

A lot of money coming in on under for Cubs. Don't understand why so many were betting the over earlier.

**Love The Action** · 08-25-11, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 8/25/11

Play #1

Pirates/Cardinals under (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I have this one at 7.2 and it will take a score of 9 to beat us, so I really like our chances here despite the recent spat of overs the last few days. Morton has been pitching extremely well and has numbers that would surprise you if you don't do this everyday. Morton is the best pitcher in the league at getting ground balls with a GB/FB over 3.4. His WAR is at 2.1, which is better than many bigger names. Even though his splits show a decisive dip against lefties, Larussa does not have the ability to throw 6 or 7 lefties at Morton. In stead, with Furcal being a switch hitter, I expect 4-5 lefties at most. In addition, other than Berkman, the Cards best hitters are righties and with Morton's sinker working to perfection over his last five starts, I think we see Morton get the best of the Cardinals best (Pujols and Holliday) today. Morton has really solid FIP, xFIP and SIERA scores in the 3.6 to 3.8 range and has been very consistent of late. However, in addition to Morton, I think this one stays under because the Cardinals are just not hitting very well right now and are 3-6-1 o/u in their last ten. On the other side, Jackson is an enigma. If he can get out of the first inning, you will generally see him cruise. He has had trouble in the first inning, so if we see no score after the first inning, then we are in good shape. Jackson has a 2.8 WAR with similar FIP, xFIP and SIERA scores to Morton. Jackson has a better K% than Morton at 18%, but does not get nearly as many ground balls with a GB/FB of 1.54 (which is still very respectable). The Pirates are hitting pretty well, but this is their first road game after 9 straight home games and is their fourth game in three days indicating those bats may be just a bit tired. I don't know the ump yet, but I I think we see the under start getting juiced here relatively soon and I wanted to get in this one at plus odds while they are still around. I'm rolling with the under here for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Braves/Cubs under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Lot of the reasons for this play were included in previous posts and I had to jump on it quick once it started to drop a fe minutes ago. The only thing that concerns me is that Beachy is a fly ball pitcher, but I'm hoping the wind blowing in mitigates that concern. The ump is Foster who is not the best for an under, but not the worst either with a 62.8% strike rate. I have this one at 6.8, so I eill give the under a play for 1x. Good luck.

Really liking that line movement on the cards under and may increase the stake in that one later....

**Love The Action** · 08-25-11, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by Full-Grown

A lot of money coming in on under for Cubs. Don't understand why so many were betting the over earlier.

Mine too!

Detroit out to an early lead...going to be mad if they win...debated playing them up until the last possible minute, but layed off because of the weak lineup...

Good luck today FG

**God1** · 08-25-11, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by Full-Grown

A lot of money coming in on under for Cubs. Don't understand why so many were betting the over earlier.

You just don't understand gambling then. When was the last time you saw a total below 7.5 at wrigley? It doesn't happen dude, under 7.5 -120 is as low as it gets at wrigely. You aren't getting some sick value here on the under its priced correctly

**Love The Action** · 08-25-11, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by God1

You just don't understand gambling then. When was the last time you saw a total below 7.5 at wrigley? It doesn't happen dude, under 7.5 -120 is as low as it gets at wrigely. You aren't getting some sick value here on the under its priced correctly

You are a bit too high with that assessment. I would say a total of 7 is as low as it gets at wrigley, not 7.5. However, totals in the 7 range are reserved for days like today when the wind blows in from the north, or in off the lake from northeast.

**tatddy** · 08-25-11, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by God1

You just don't understand gambling then. When was the last time you saw a total below 7.5 at wrigley? It doesn't happen dude, under 7.5 -120 is as low as it gets at wrigely. You aren't getting some sick value here on the under its priced correctly

Total dropped to 7 at 5dimes. Be careful with your use of absolutes, 'god'.

**Full-Grown** · 08-25-11, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by God1

You just don't understand gambling then. When was the last time you saw a total below 7.5 at wrigley? It doesn't happen dude, under 7.5 -120 is as low as it gets at wrigely. You aren't getting some sick value here on the under its priced correctly

Like I said earlier I'm clueless to weather and totals in Chicago which is why I asked for LTA's help. Funny how you named yourself God as I was going to say something about you trying to act like it. Lol. You're a real chum.