LTA's MLB Plays

[pacocn]

Giants and Pads pens are struggling.

[man_of_steel]

U think Tampa/Detroit stay under again?

Liking Seattle, ATL, and Detroit again. Not gonna touch the padres under or Arizona

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/24/11

Play #1

Mariners ML (-105) 1x (Locked)

I toyed with the under here, but feel that a play on the Mariners is the better option. Hernadez at this price is a steal, as I have this one at -118. I expect the price to go up on the Mariners as we get closer to the game. The Mariners offense is as good as it's going to get right now and they are actually hitting .270 in their last ten against righties. They have a nice lefty platoon split in their lineup and Tomlin struggles against lefties throughout his career. Tomlin's advanced stats are ok, but pale in comparison to King Felix. Plus, with Haffner and Sizemore out, those are two of Cleveland's best hitters against Hernandez in the past. This is an early game, with both teams traveling and Hoye as the ump. I think the situational angles favor the Mariners here as well. I expect a fast game with the Mariners winning 4-2. I also lean under, but I missed the early move and don't like as much at -125 juice and definitely not at 6.5. Good luck.

Play #2

Padres/Giants under (6) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup on this one, but these are two dominate pitchers against poor offenses (despite the Pads recent success). The ump is Drake with a huge 64.4% strike rate. I may add to this one down the road. Most of the bets are coming in on the over, yet most books are juicing the under. I have a good price -- at least for now -- getting it at -110 so I jumped on it so as not to risk a worse price later today if I am busy and can't monitor the lines. However, I actually expect the juice to go up on the over about midday and drop before gametime. Therefore, I may add to this play if we can get even odds later on the under. Good luck.

Added 0.50x to Play #1 for total of 1.5x Seattle ML (-105)

Play #3

Dodgers/Cards under (7.5) 1x (Locked)
Good luck on everones plays. Still might have a few more...have a meeting now so no writeup....back later

[blumpkin]

Like the seattle play to start the day... its going to be a nice big day. Good Luck

[Redscot]

I can't for the life of me understand how I didn't play the Pelf/Kendrick over today .

LTA and co. off to the States this afternoon, prolly be erratic computer usage over the next week so good luck fella's , hope I come back to find you all with fatter wallets!

[Love The Action]

I can't for the life of me understand how I didn't play the Pelf/Kendrick over today .

LTA and co. off to the States this afternoon, prolly be erratic computer usage over the next week so good luck fella's , hope I come back to find you all with fatter wallets!

Safe travels!

Take a look at the Tigers tonight. I'm adding them to my leans and will probably play them. Good luck getting your son settled. I hope everything goes well.

[GGALLERT]

I am an idiot rolled with MILW, appeared to be a easy hands down victory...
Follwoing Seattle which is easy W...Nice work LTA!!!!

[Love The Action]

Very disappointed in Garcia's performance...the dodgers are at the bottom hitting against lefties and he made them look top five.

Still like the tigers against the heavy publicly bet rays. Any reason to avoid that play?

Also like the Braves despite the rlm for the cubs...don't understand why big money likes the cubs here. Anyone like the cubbies...why?

[HOT WINGS]

I

Very disappointed in Garcia's performance...the dodgers are at the bottom hitting against lefties and he made them look top five.

Still like the tigers against the heavy publicly bet rays. Any reason to avoid that play?

Also like the Braves despite the rlm for the cubs...don't understand why big money likes the cubs here. Anyone like the cubbies...why?

I have been trying to control the urge of pounding the Tigers game tonight just because they are my team and I can be bias even though I try hard not too. Also I thought Tigers would of been a huge public play so that usually keeps me in control. I am shocked to see the majority of bets are on the Rays. Backing Wade Davis over Scherzer??? I dont understand that at all. I am definatley playing Tigers just dont know for how much. Kind of like Braves to keep rolling even though I hate backing Lowe. Over might be worth a look in that game.

[tatddy]

Like the Tigers for a smallish play. This should be a low scoring game and anything can happen in 7-9. Under is a good bet.

[Redscot]

Honestly I watched Davis' last 2 starts and he was pretty good. Wheels came off on him against K.C. but stuff wise he was good. Dunno, not gonna talk anyone off the Tigers, but, Scherzer away, Tampa throwing a LH dominant lineup at him. I see a competitive game here and lean home team (if there is such a thing in Tampa).

*Caveat, my flight is delayed and am into the drink here, end of the day will be tailing what you sane guys are on.

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the analysis guys...

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/24/11

Play #1

Mariners ML (-105) 1.5x (Locked)

I toyed with the under here, but feel that a play on the Mariners is the better option. Hernadez at this price is a steal, as I have this one at -118. I expect the price to go up on the Mariners as we get closer to the game. The Mariners offense is as good as it's going to get right now and they are actually hitting .270 in their last ten against righties. They have a nice lefty platoon split in their lineup and Tomlin struggles against lefties throughout his career. Tomlin's advanced stats are ok, but pale in comparison to King Felix. Plus, with Haffner and Sizemore out, those are two of Cleveland's best hitters against Hernandez in the past. This is an early game, with both teams traveling and Hoye as the ump. I think the situational angles favor the Mariners here as well. I expect a fast game with the Mariners winning 4-2. I also lean under, but I missed the early move and don't like as much at -125 juice and definitely not at 6.5. Good luck.

Play #2

Padres/Giants under (6) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup on this one, but these are two dominate pitchers against poor offenses (despite the Pads recent success). The ump is Drake with a huge 64.4% strike rate. I may add to this one down the road. Most of the bets are coming in on the over, yet most books are juicing the under. I have a good price -- at least for now -- getting it at -110 so I jumped on it so as not to risk a worse price later today if I am busy and can't monitor the lines. However, I actually expect the juice to go up on the over about midday and drop before gametime. Therefore, I may add to this play if we can get even odds later on the under. Good luck.

Play #3

Dodgers/Cards under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Arizona ML (-110) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Tigers ML (+100) 2x (Locked)

Play #6

Atlanta ML (-113) 1x (Locked)

All of these are underpriced faves under my model by seven cents or more, especially that Tigers play which I have at -115. Generally not a fan of away faves, but I have to go where I think we have the biggest edge. Outside of the rlm on the cubs and nats, I don't see too much that goes against these plays. We need a big night and I think we get it. Good luck!

[alamo]

Guys just to let you know - Overs went 14-2 last night and are already 5-1 tonight after the early games. Thats 19-3 now. Holy mackeral. Definitely might be worth looking at this trend.

[Love The Action]

Guys just to let you know - Overs went 14-2 last night and are already 5-1 tonight after the early games. Thats 19-3 now. Holy mackeral. Definitely might be worth looking at this trend.

There are some good looking overs for tomorrow too....although, whenever an over or under run like this occurs, the other side ends up hitting and evening out the results. This big over trend bodes well for our big september playoff race under plays. Once the playoff races really start to heat up, I will start concentrating on multiple unit under plays for games involved in those races as they generally involve top level starters and solid bullpens. I'm looking forward to it.

Good stuff alamo...bol tonight

[alamo]

There are some good looking overs for tomorrow too....although, whenever an over or under run like this occurs, the other side ends up hitting and evening out the results. This big over trend bodes well for our big september playoff race under plays. Once the playoff races really start to heat up, I will start concentrating on multiple unit under plays for games involved in those races as they generally involve top level starters and solid bullpens. I'm looking forward to it. Good stuff alamo...bol tonight

No worries LTA. These money line plays are off to a great start tonight. Lets hope they can cash for us and give us that big night that we know is long overdue to all of us !

[Love The Action]

Any ideas why, with bases loaded in the bottom of the 10th, no one on Detroit would be covering second on a routine ground ball to third. Just unbelievably stupid baseball on nothing more than a routine ground ball that cost us 2x. Late inning losses are to be expected here and there, but we are now getting into the scary weird category. Over 22x in profit lost over the last two weeks in late inning losses. Sorry guys...this is tough...

[No coincidences]

Any ideas why, with bases loaded in the bottom of the 10th, no one on Detroit would be covering second on a routine ground ball to third. Just unbelievably stupid baseball on nothing more than a routine ground ball that cost us 2x. Late inning losses are to be expected here and there, but we are now getting into the scary weird category. Over 22x in profit lost over the last two weeks in late inning losses. Sorry guys...this is tough...

It was partly Santiago's fault, but Inge is an idiot and should've just thrown to first.

[LolsMcwinsey]

Any ideas why, with bases loaded in the bottom of the 10th, no one on Detroit would be covering second on a routine ground ball to third. Just unbelievably stupid baseball on nothing more than a routine ground ball that cost us 2x. Late inning losses are to be expected here and there, but we are now getting into the scary weird category. Over 22x in profit lost over the last two weeks in late inning losses. Sorry guys...this is tough...

Cabrera wasn't holding him on so he got a huge lead and was running on contact. 2nd basemen was prob confused why inge wasn't going to first. the play was to first.

[No coincidences]

Cabrera wasn't holding him on so he got a huge lead and was running on contact. 2nd basemen was prob confused why inge wasn't going to first. the play was to first.

Inge is a loser who loses. That's his thing. Nice "defensive replacement" Leyland.

[Love The Action]

It was partly Santiago's fault, but Inge is an idiot and should've just thrown to first.

Cabrera wasn't holding him on so he got a huge lead and was running on contact. 2nd basemen was prob confused why inge wasn't going to first. the play was to first.

Either way, it's an easy play that any team, much less a winning team should make.

The scary thing is that I'm capping tomorrow's card and I have Detroit at +124 and the currentl line is around +136. Need to do some more work, but that is really tempting even after tonight's fiasco.

[gshock1]

Either way, it's an easy play that any team, much less a winning team should make.

The scary thing is that I'm capping tomorrow's card and I have Detroit at +124 and the currentl line is around +136. Need to do some more work, but that is really tempting even after tonight's fiasco.

Cabrera is out tomorrow - paternity leave.

[Love The Action]

Cabrera is out tomorrow - paternity leave.

I did not know that...thank you, sir.

[gshock1]

I did not know that...thank you, sir.

Np. That's what these forums are about.

[pacocn]

Lta, lets get em tomorrow

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 8/24/11

3 - 3 = -0.6x

MLB Season 2011

358 - 326 = +26.16x

A bottom of the 10th inning collapse by the Tigers in the field and failure to throw to first and/or cover second base on a routine grounder to third with bases loaded is the difference between +3.5x day and -.6 day. Late inning losses have now cost us well over 22x in profit over the last two weeks and it's getting tough to stomach. It would be nice for some of these BS plays to start going our way for once as it gets tough to cap on a daily basis when you suffer these bad beats over and over without one game going your way. Very frustrating but that's baseball and we move onto Thursday. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/25/11

Play #1

Pirates/Cardinals under (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I have this one at 7.2 and it will take a score of 9 to beat us, so I really like our chances here despite the recent spat of overs the last few days. Morton has been pitching extremely well and has numbers that would surprise you if you don't do this everyday. Morton is the best pitcher in the league at getting ground balls with a GB/FB over 3.4. His WAR is at 2.1, which is better than many bigger names. Even though his splits show a decisive dip against lefties, Larussa does not have the ability to throw 6 or 7 lefties at Morton. In stead, with Furcal being a switch hitter, I expect 4-5 lefties at most. In addition, other than Berkman, the Cards best hitters are righties and with Morton's sinker working to perfection over his last five starts, I think we see Morton get the best of the Cardinals best (Pujols and Holliday) today. Morton has really solid FIP, xFIP and SIERA scores in the 3.6 to 3.8 range and has been very consistent of late. However, in addition to Morton, I think this one stays under because the Cardinals are just not hitting very well right now and are 3-6-1 o/u in their last ten. On the other side, Jackson is an enigma. If he can get out of the first inning, you will generally see him cruise. He has had trouble in the first inning, so if we see no score after the first inning, then we are in good shape. Jackson has a 2.8 WAR with similar FIP, xFIP and SIERA scores to Morton. Jackson has a better K% than Morton at 18%, but does not get nearly as many ground balls with a GB/FB of 1.54 (which is still very respectable). The Pirates are hitting pretty well, but this is their first road game after 9 straight home games and is their fourth game in three days indicating those bats may be just a bit tired. I don't know the ump yet, but I I think we see the under start getting juiced here relatively soon and I wanted to get in this one at plus odds while they are still around. I'm rolling with the under here for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Don't really see too many other unders on the board today. I lean under in the Yanks/A's and Detroit/TB games and maybe the Cubs game, but probably won't play them. Looks like we could see another day of overs more or less.

I really wish the Cubs had lost yesterday. Not only because we would have cashed our Atlanta bet, but because I would have bet the Cubs ML 2x today with Garza going to avoid the sweep. Now, I think we look at a play on the total depending on the opening number.

What are everyone's favorite plays today?

[firehoyt]

Hey LTA, you get on twitter any? If you do, follow "oddscapper" on there. They constantly update injuries, resting players, and player/game status for any team. Really good info and it keeps ya from having to search each individual team's player status for a game.

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, you get on twitter any? If you do, follow "oddscapper" on there. They constantly update injuries, resting players, and player/game status for any team. Really good info and it keeps ya from having to search each individual team's player status for a game.

Thanks for the tip Fire...I don't have a Twitter but will check it out. Thanks and good luck today!

[firehoyt]

Thanks for the tip Fire...I don't have a Twitter but will check it out. Thanks and good luck today!

NP. I dont tweet but you can find alot of useful info on there. I follow several handicappers that give out free plays on occasions, or their opinions on a game/team, injuries, etc. Very useful info. I just check it once/twice a day. BOL today. I'm gonna lay off since I went 0-5 yesterday!

[Redscot]

Mornin' Gents. Gotta love that S.F. game. Like the early play LTA. Looking at the card, looks kinda icky. Interested in the Chicago line.....Liriano seem very expensive for a team that can't hit a lick right now. For that matter Cecil and Ogando seem pricey too first glance. Not capping today but will pop in to see what you got my man. BOL .

[Donnie Brasco]

I think boston has some value at +150 or so and have to go with the braves if it doesnt hit -120. Also backing oakland with harden on the bump at +180. Gl to all. Nice work LTA!

[BigBoi]

I lean under on Nyy/ oak and Detroit/Tb. I'd prolly go Yanks to avoid the sweep at home but too much juice. Id go Tb against an inferior pitcher. Cubs and atl is a toss up. Beachy lost to the scrubs bout two weeks ago but it was the oddest way to lose. The scoreboard favored atl everywhere but the run column. Good luck

[Full-Grown]

Hey LTA, you get on twitter any? If you do, follow "oddscapper" on there. They constantly update injuries, resting players, and player/game status for any team. Really good info and it keeps ya from having to search each individual team's player status for a game.

Thanks for the tip firehoyt. And if that's your woman you are one lucky man!!!