New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

[redsband]

Good record there. good for you.

[ShivaBowl]

Guys, I can't do SA today I'm in corporate meetings all day. Sorry!

Thanks BM,
NYM if <-136 and under
BOL

[ShivaBowl]

M/L Plays Fav must be < -140
NYM, If >-130

S/A Plays
NYM, If <-136

BPR Plays
Philly 5.16
Mets 1.39

TPR Plays
NYM, No Play if >-150

H/A Plays
WAS, 129.9—1395.5

P/T Plays
SEA, No Play SEA L/2

Complimentary Selection from ST, for 6/23/2011
Take NY Mets W/Capuano over Oakland W/Godfrey NO PLAY if > -140

[barts185]

I'm all for only using the home team line as an indicator. I think that's how I used the system a year ago, but some how my line of thinkin became convoluted.

They way yesterdays Free play was listed almost cements that the home team line is the indicator.

There's been plenty of times when the away team's line was listed on the free play. When the free play is on the away team, the away team's line is listed as the indicator almost all of the time. Obviously not 100%, but listing the home team's line as the indicator when the away team is the play is definitely an exception.


Without wanting to get into a big debate over it, one reason that your thinking may have become convoluted on using the home team as an indicator is that there have been times where there was a play and using the home team line it would not have been a play but using the away team line it would have been a play. I'm pretty sure I directly asked the question "Can I just use the home team's projected line and actual line" and the answer was no. Maybe that's changed, or maybe it was never clearly defined.

If using the home team's proj line and actual ML is the way to go, that would be great.

[HoulihansTX]

Yes it would certainly be easier. Also seems like a practical solution.

[Formulawiz]

There's been plenty of times when the away team's line was listed on the free play. When the free play is on the away team, the away team's line is listed as the indicator almost all of the time. Obviously not 100%, but listing the home team's line as the indicator when the away team is the play is definitely an exception.


Without wanting to get into a big debate over it, one reason that your thinking may have become convoluted on using the home team as an indicator is that there have been times where there was a play and using the home team line it would not have been a play but using the away team line it would have been a play. I'm pretty sure I directly asked the question "Can I just use the home team's projected line and actual line" and the answer was no. Maybe that's changed, or maybe it was never clearly defined.

If using the home team's proj line and actual ML is the way to go, that would be great.

Its always been the HT ML vs the Proj ML since I started the thread 2 years ago and thats the way I use the ML system.

[rask7rask7]

I took NY Mets -132. Thank you

[Formulawiz]

ML system went 1-0, +1.0 unit

YTD 61-34, 18.85 units

Would like to clarify my explanation of ML system yesterday. I was referring to the HT when they are a FAV only. If the HT is a dog you need to compare the AT ML to the PROJ ML.
EX: today you have LAA at -140 and LAD is +120 and lets say proj ML is +110 or +105. The play is on LAA due to the fact LAD/LAA should be a pick and LAA is getting 140 which is well above the 25 cent diff.
I hope I cleared things up.

Plays later today

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML picks. FAV must be < -140

PHI?, TB, CWS, LAA

[ShivaBowl]

TPR system went 1-0 yesterday.
Start Date 05/01
55-65 –13.32u

H/A system went 1-0 yesterday.
Start Date 05/29
28-21 +3.55u

P/T Power Plays went 0-0 yesterday.
Start Date 06/12
9-10 –1.00u

TPR System Plays
Filter No Play if >-150
MLW 1.4
BOS 2.4 No Play BOS L/2

H/A System Plays
Filter No Play if >-150
PHI, 77.1 --- 560.3
ARZ 1/2U
WAS 1/2U
TOR, 65.2 --- 643.6 No Play TOR L/4

P/T System Plays
Filter No Play if >-150
PHI
WAS
TAM

[barts185]

Todays ML picks. FAV must be < -140

PHI?, TB, CWS, LAA

I would appreciate if you could explain how PHI is even a possible play.

Proj ML is -185. Actual ML is -160.

That would indicate that the value is on PHI, which I thought would mean the play would be on OAK, if there was a play at all (OAK is on a 2 game losing streak).

I'm not even taking into account the line which is way over the -140 or -150 filter.

[HoulihansTX]

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(114-98)54% +12.5 Units

___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 23
Bullpen Projection System

Philly 5.16 L (+100)
Mets 1.39 W (-135)

March 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(115-99)54% +12.5 Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 24
Bullpen Projection System

Yanks 4.72
Mets 4.29
Angels 4.24
Tampa 3.24
Cincy 2.44

No Plays
Minny np L2 5.95
Toronto np L2 3.67
Wash np (CWS W2) 3.49
Philly np >-150 2.61
KC np L2 2.29
Cleve np (SF W2) 1.86

[BrewMaster]

23Jun11 Result:1-0
Record Official Start 15May11: 71-67 (+4.10 units)

Scientific Approach 24Jun11:

COL, -107 (np <+118)
TB, -169 (np <-144)
WAS, -176
ANA, -156 (np <-131)

Filtered (TEX, KC, TOR, CLE)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

[BrewMaster]

Great overlap today. Personally, I'm liking ARZ, TB and ANA. What do you guys think?

[joeytunes]

tb is in every system thats gonna b my big boi

[Formulawiz]

I would appreciate if you could explain how PHI is even a possible play.

Proj ML is -185. Actual ML is -160.

That would indicate that the value is on PHI, which I thought would mean the play would be on OAK, if there was a play at all (OAK is on a 2 game losing streak).

I'm not even taking into account the line which is way over the -140 or -150 filter.

Your correct, my error.
Thanks

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML plays

ATL, TB, CWS, LAA

I accidentally was looking at the wrong chart .

[Formulawiz]

I would appreciate if you could explain how PHI is even a possible play.

Proj ML is -185. Actual ML is -160.

That would indicate that the value is on PHI, which I thought would mean the play would be on OAK, if there was a play at all (OAK is on a 2 game losing streak).

I'm not even taking into account the line which is way over the -140 or -150 filter.

PHI should have been ATL

[Tommygunn]

Take Arizona W/Duke over Detroit W/Coke NO PLAY if < +135

[HoulihansTX]

23Jun11 Result:1-0
Record Official Start 15May11: 71-67 (+4.10 units)


.I remember when this system was showing no returns. Good turn around Brew

[barts185]

Todays ML plays

ATL, TB, CWS, LAA

I accidentally was looking at the wrong chart .

Probably getting myself in trouble, but I'm confused by some of the plays listed.

ATL has the value, not sure how they are the play.

TB has the value, not sure how they are the play.

CWS I could see as a play at the line listed on the page (-130, I think -125 or worse is a play), but that doesn't exist.

LAA I could see as a play at the line listed on the page (-140), but this is the one where I'm not sure what to use when comparing the LAA projected line to the actual ML.

The proj ML is LAD +110. So, LAA are the favorites. But what line are you using for the LAA projected ML to compare to the LAA actual ML? -110 so they would be the play at -135 or worse? Something else?

Thanks.

[staf]

Probably getting myself in trouble, but I'm confused by some of the plays listed.

ATL has the value, not sure how they are the play.

TB has the value, not sure how they are the play.

CWS I could see as a play at the line listed on the page (-130, I think -125 or worse is a play), but that doesn't exist.

LAA I could see as a play at the line listed on the page (-140), but this is the one where I'm not sure what to use when comparing the LAA projected line to the actual ML.

The proj ML is LAD +110. So, LAA are the favorites. But what line are you using for the LAA projected ML to compare to the LAA actual ML? -110 so they would be the play at -135 or worse? Something else?

Thanks.

Using the lines from the sportrends ml page, all I'm getting tonight as a play is Houston.
These are filtered out by streaks.
Detroit
Oakland
Texas
Chicago Sox
San Diego

What's everybody else getting?

[HoulihansTX]

I agree with Staf.

I layed off of Houston B/c Tampa has been killing it with the BPR. Add the fact that Houston is 20 games under .500.

[agos]

Keep up the good work guys!

[Formulawiz]

ML system went 2-2, -0.25 units

YTD 63-36, +18.6 units

Plays later today

[BrewMaster]

24Jun11 Result: 4-0
Record Official Start 15May11: 75-67 (+8.35 units)

Scientific Approach 25Jun11:

WAS, -127
CIN, -186
MLW, -212

Filtered (CLE, ATL)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

[BrewMaster]

23Jun11 Result:1-0
Record Official Start 15May11: 71-67 (+4.10 units)


.I remember when this system was showing no returns. Good turn around Brew

Just from what I've been observing on the SA system, it can be VERY streaky. It's good to hop on when the previous night was a winning night. Same with the losing streaks. Check out my spreadsheet and you'll see what I mean. This thread is great because all the systems combined are great statistical tools and provide awesome checks and balances.

http://brewmaster.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

[HoulihansTX]

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(115-99)54% +12.5 Units

___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 24
Bullpen Projection System

Yanks 4.72 L (-135)
Mets 4.29 L (+155)
Angels 4.24 W (-125)
Tampa 3.24 W (-125)
Cincy 2.44 L (-115)

March 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(117-102)53% +11.05 Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 25
Bullpen Projection System

Toronto 7.98
Cincy 3.50
Mets 3.40
Tampa 3.02
Angels 1.96
Seattle 1.91

No Plays
Minny np L2 4.73
Yanks np >-150/L2 3.50
Philly np >-150 2.29
Cleve np(SF W2) 1.81
Atl np(Padres W2) 1.32

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140

SD, CIN, STL?

[ShivaBowl]

TPR system went 1-0 yesterday.
Start Date 05/01
56-65 –12.32u

H/A system went 2-0 yesterday.
PHI –171 No Play
Start Date 05/29
30-21 +4.64u

P/T Power Plays went 2-0 yesterday.
Start Date 06/12
11-10 +1.02u

[ShivaBowl]

M/L System Plays
FAV must be < -140
SD
CIN
STL

S/A System Plays
FAV must be < -150
WAS
CIN
MLW

TPR System Plays
Filter No Play if >-150
MLW 1.4
BOS 2.3 No Play BOS L/3

H/A System Plays
Filter No Play if >-150
PIT, 88.4—549.1
STL, 88.1—952.8
PHI, 82.4—836.7
MLW, 1/2U 40.9—415.3
SFO, 1/2U 22.4—525.3
ATL, No Play SDP W/3
HOU, No Play TAM W/2

P/T Power Plays
Filter No Play if >-150
PIT
SEA
PHI
ATL No Play SDP W/3

BPR System Plays
Filter No Play if >-150
TOR, 7.98
CIN, 3.50
NYM, 3.40
TAM, 3.02
LAA, 1.96
SEA, 1.91

BPR No Plays
Minny np L2 4.73
Yanks np >-150/L2 3.50
Philly np >-150 2.29
Cleve np(SF W2) 1.81
Atl np(Padres W2) 1.32

[shawn226]

Hi guys, I'm new here. Yesterday I got Sportrends Fastball Baseball program... and spoke to Sam for a while also - real nice guy. Wonder if I could ask you a bit of advice on it please pertaining to best use. I did some playing around with the software yesterday and it looks like the software itself generates its own daily picks and "Best Bets", but on the sportrends website there appear to be some more baseball systems which are manual in nature, namely:

http://www.sportrends.com/team_ml.htm

and the 4 others found on:

http://www.sportrends.com/team_stats.htm

(Projected Money Line, Bullpen Projected Runs, etc)

I'm just a little bit confused about the best way to use all of this. Does the system built into in the software incorporate any or all of these 5 manual systems already when making its decisions, or are the manual ones completely separate systems? If they're separate systems, should one play all of them simultaneously? Or just take the picks that "in common" to several of them?
My goal is to simply find the very best, most reliable picks and combine them into 2-game parlays. For instance, if the software gave 6 picks for today, then I would make 3 2-game parlays out of them.
A fair number of questions I know! Thank you and sorry to be a bother!

Cheers
Shawn

[Tommygunn]

Take Pittsburgh W/Karstens over Boston W/Wakefield NO PLAY if < +130

[Formulawiz]

Hi guys, I'm new here. Yesterday I got Sportrends Fastball Baseball program... and spoke to Sam for a while also - real nice guy. Wonder if I could ask you a bit of advice on it please pertaining to best use. I did some playing around with the software yesterday and it looks like the software itself generates its own daily picks and "Best Bets", but on the sportrends website there appear to be some more baseball systems which are manual in nature, namely:

http://www.sportrends.com/team_ml.htm

and the 4 others found on:

http://www.sportrends.com/team_stats.htm

(Projected Money Line, Bullpen Projected Runs, etc)

I'm just a little bit confused about the best way to use all of this. Does the system built into in the software incorporate any or all of these 5 manual systems already when making its decisions, or are the manual ones completely separate systems? If they're separate systems, should one play all of them simultaneously? Or just take the picks that "in common" to several of them?
My goal is to simply find the very best, most reliable picks and combine them into 2-game parlays. For instance, if the software gave 6 picks for today, then I would make 3 2-game parlays out of them.
A fair number of questions I know! Thank you and sorry to be a bother!

Cheers
Shawn

The systems found on the sportrends website are completely different from the systems found in the software.

[shawn226]

OK thanks Formulawiz... may I ask how would be the best way to work all of these systems? Play all their picks separately? Is one system "better" than another... can some be ignored? May how ask how you yourself do it?

Cheers
Shawn