New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

[ShivaBowl]

Excellent night!

BPR, 7-2
SA, 2-0
PR, 1-0
TPR, N/P


STL, filtered out >-140, with SA, WIN
STL, filtered out >-130 with PR, WIN
CLE, filtered out >-130 with PR, WIN
STL, filtered out >-140 with TPR, WIN

[chinoloco]

Excellent night!

BPR, 7-2
SA, 2-0
PR, 1-0
TPR, N/P


STL, filtered out >-140, with SA, WIN
CLE, filtered out >-130 with PR, WIN
STL, filtered out >-140 with TPR, WIN

[ShivaBowl]

Today's TPR Plays
TEX, 2.4
LAD, 1.4
GL

[chinoloco]

4/29/11 PR system

Oak .5 unit, Pitching PR.

[BrewMaster]

Scientific Approach:
4/28 result: 2-0

Nationals
Rays
Rangers (-108 or better)

Nats, Rays play if valued at -140 or better.

-BM

[ShivaBowl]

Scientific Approach: 4/28 result: 2-0 Nationals Rays Rangers (-108 or better) Nats, Rays play if valued at -140 or better. -BM

Brew Master, I’m confused, what does, NATS, RAYS, PLAY IF VALUED AT –140 OR BETTER represent?
Thanks for your help.

[ShivaBowl]

4/29/11 PR system plays. Cinci Reds, np play if >-130 Atlanta, np if >-130, .5 unit Chi Cubs, np if >-130 San Diego, TB Rays, np if >-130 KC Royals, .5 unit

Thanks for your help Chinoloco
But check on your filters?

CIN, No Play, FLA IP <-20
ATL, No Play, STL W/2
CHC, No Play, CHC L/4
SDP, No Play, SDP L/2
KC, No Play, KC L/6 + you only have a ½ U-Play only if the T-P is met.
TB Rays, np if >-130....PERFECT!!!!!!

The only PR Play Today is on OAK, for a ½ unit.
Check it out and see if we are on the same page?
Thanks, Shiva

[HoulihansTX]

Sry about yesterday fellas.

I was swamped with school work, and forgot about my Sportrends duties.

Did anybody get the picks down?

[barts185]

Thanks for your help Chinoloco
But check on your filters?

CIN, No Play, FLA IP <-20
ATL, No Play, STL W/2
CHC, No Play, CHC L/4
SDP, No Play, SDP L/2
KC, No Play, KC L/6 + you only have a ½ U-Play only if the T-P is met.
TB Rays, np if >-130....PERFECT!!!!!!

The only PR Play Today is on OAK, for a ½ unit.
Check it out and see if we are on the same page?
Thanks, Shiva

Are we using >-130 (same as -129 or better) or >-140 (same as -139 or better) for a filter?

It looks like this game will be over the filter either way, but just checking for going forward.

[barts185]

Sry about yesterday fellas.

I was swamped with school work, and forgot about my Sportrends duties.

Did anybody get the picks down?

See post number 66.

[chinoloco]

Thanks for your help Chinoloco
But check on your filters?

CIN, No Play, FLA IP <-20
ATL, No Play, STL W/2
CHC, No Play, CHC L/4 [B
SDP, No Play, SDP L/2[/B]
KC, No Play, KC L/6 + you only have a ½ U-Play only if the T-P is met.
TB Rays, np if >-130....PERFECT!!!!!!

The only PR Play Today is on OAK, for a ½ unit.
Check it out and see if we are on the same page?
Thanks, Shiva

Shiva, you are correct. It hard to post from the phone. The only play today is OAK fot .5 unit of pitching pwer rating.

[HoulihansTX]

Overall
(6-4) +3.80Units
_________________
April 27
Bullpen Projection System

Florida 9.57 L (-120)
Toronto 4.13 W (+160)
Arizona 2.99 L (+130)
Angels 2.83 L (-165)
Cleveland 2.67 W (-135)
Seattle 2.32 W (+190)
Cincy 2.02[/i] W (+135)
Giants 1.47 L (-110)
Houston 1.29 L (+125)
White Sox 1.24L (+150)

Overall
(10-9) +2.7Units

_________________
April 28
Bullpen Projection System

This is Barts list, as I have no idea what the plays were for April 28. Thank You Bart

(GM 1)Tampa Bay 4.67 W (+105)
(GM 2)Tampa Bay 4.67 W (-110)
Toronto 3.67 W (+140)
Arizona -3.65 W (-105)
Cleveland -2.11 W (-150)
Seattle 1.96 W (+100)
NY Mets 1.31 L (-110)
Baltimore -1.14 L (+170)
NY Yankees -1.08 W (No Play >-175)

Overall
(16-11) +6.05Units
_________________
Today: April 29
Bullpen Projection System

Oakland 4.15
Arizona 4.11
Seattle 3.64
Florida 3.06
Cleveland 2.19
Tampa 1.44

[HoulihansTX]

I have 2 questions:
1) Are 1.00 and -1.00 plays, or does it have to be 1.01 and -1.01?
2) What do we do, if anything, with double headers?

1) Has to be Ov or Un 1/-1. So 1/-1 are not plays.
2) Last year I ignored the second game. Doubleheaders makeup less than 1% of the MLB schedule. There is only 4 more scheduled, not including the makeup games. Playing/ignoring doubleheaders is not likely to effect the success of the systems. I vote ignore from this point forth.

[Small Timer]

Nice Houli, DBacks won the game though so should be a win. For Today's plays I'm getting Oakland instead of Texas when I look at it and Arizona again today. Am I just confused?

[barts185]

Today: April 29
Bullpen Projection System

Texas 4.15
Seattle 3.64
Florida 3.06
Cleveland 2.19
Tampa 1.44
Baltimore 1.14

I hope I'm doing this correctly and that this won't just complicate things.


Texas 4.15 - I think this is the wrong side, value is -4.15, indicating home team.
Seattle 3.64 - agree.
Florida 3.06 - less than 20 IP, does it matter?
Cleveland 2.19 - less than 20 IP, does it matter?
Tampa 1.44 - agree.
Baltimore 1.14 - I think this is the wrong side, value is White Sox -1.14, indicating home team, but White Sox are on 2 game losing streak, so if that's used as a filter, no play.



Other games

Arizona -4.11 - I think this is a play

Minnesota 2.25 - 3 game losing streak, so no play if using that filter
Pittsburgh 2.38 - COL 2 game win streak, so no play if using that filter
San Diego 5.84 - 2 game losing streak, so no play if using that filter

[Small Timer]

Bart that's exactly what I'm coming up with when I look at it, so if you're confusing people I am equally to blame. Florida I think I will play because it is close enough to 20 IP for my liking, but I probably wouldn't count it as an official play, then again this system doesn't officially start until May 15. Since Cleveland is on a good streak I will probably play them but wouldn't call it a system play either.

I myself am unclear whether the 20IP even applies to this system.

[Tommygunn]

Which system payed out the best % last year? PR? When did it start May.15?

[thienlong82]

Hi guys, I'm new to MLB, and I'm confuse about all these systems plays. Could anyone help put all systems plays for the day in one post? Thanks guys.

[HoulihansTX]

Today: April 29
Bullpen Projection System

Oakland 4.15
Arizona 4.11
Seattle 3.64
Florida 3.06
Cleveland 2.19
Tampa 1.44


Corrected list, as I made two mistakes( Didnt include Arizona, and used Texas instead of Oakland.)

I myself am unclear whether the 20IP even applies to this system.

Since the BPR is unofficial until May 15, I am willing to work on an agreement of rules. It seems Sportrends has left much to be interpreted, as a thorough list a parameters are not listed.

1) Does the 20IP rule apply to BPR?
--- I vote no. BPR is a measure of the effectiveness of a teams bullpen. Bullpens are an independent part of MLB, and deserve an exclusive rating. For example, a quality start is reached by pitching 6 innings, and allowing equal to, or less than three earned runs. When the bullpen enters the game for the last 3 innings, their success is independent to that of the SP.

2) Do we play the 2nd game in doubleheaders?
-- I vote no. Exclusively for the bullpen projection system. Game 1 you may get the top of the line pitchers coming out of the bullpen. Then in the second game those same pitchers may not pitch. Plus Doubleheaders are such a rare event, that ignoring the second game will not be detrimental to the systems success.

Also I'm keeping records of the BPR currently, while planning to reset them May 15. Which is the date the system officially starts. Furthermore, it is helpful that we are fleshing out our issues now, so that we will not have to waste time in the future. Such as today, and all the mistakes in my post. Simple proofreading would solve that.

BOL.

[barts185]

Today: April 29
Bullpen Projection System

Oakland 4.15
Arizona 4.11
Seattle 3.64
Florida 3.06
Cleveland 2.19
Tampa 1.44


Corrected list, as I made two mistakes( Didnt include Arizona, and used Texas instead of Oakland.)

Since the BPR is unofficial until May 15, I am willing to work on an agreement of rules. It seems Sportrends has left much to be interpreted, as a thorough list a parameters are not listed.

1) Does the 20IP rule apply to BPR?
--- I vote no. BPR is a measure of the effectiveness of a teams bullpen. Bullpens are an independent part of MLB, and deserve an exclusive rating. For example, a quality start is reached by pitching 6 innings, and allowing equal to, or less than three earned runs. When the bullpen enters the game for the last 3 innings, their success is independent to that of the SP.

2) Do we play the 2nd game in doubleheaders?
-- I vote no. Exclusively for the bullpen projection system. Game 1 you may get the top of the line pitchers coming out of the bullpen. Then in the second game those same pitchers may not pitch. Plus Doubleheaders are such a rare event, that ignoring the second game will not be detrimental to the systems success.

Also I'm keeping records of the BPR currently, while planning to reset them May 15. Which is the date the system officially starts. Furthermore, it is helpful that we are fleshing out our issues now, so that we will not have to waste time in the future. Such as today, and all the mistakes in my post. Simple proofreading would solve that.

BOL.

Both of those seem reasonable.

What about the other filters? Line too high, win/loss streaks for the team in question and the opposing team.

[HoulihansTX]

Both of those seem reasonable. What about the other filters? Line too high, win/loss streaks for the team in question and the opposing team.

Yes, and Yes.

Not going over -175 is a rule that can be used universally. Fundamentally, betting into those type of lines is not a good strategy. You are risking more money, and two wins are needed to cover one loss.

Following streaks is handicapping 101. Losing teams lose, and winning teams cash tickets.

[Tommygunn]

Are you guys betting same amount on every game eg. $100. Or are you betting different amounts depending on odds to equal winning a certain amount eg. bet $ 125 on a -125 to always win $100 when it's a favourite or $ 89 on a +125 to always win $100 on a dog?

[HoulihansTX]

Anybody have the Predicted ML plays?

I have
Washington np<+140
Seattle np<+145
Baltimore np>-110

I like all of them. Especially Washington.

[barts185]

Yes, and Yes.

Not going over -175 is a rule that can be used universally. Fundamentally, betting into those type of lines is not a good strategy. You are risking more money, and two wins are needed to cover one loss.

Following streaks is handicapping 101. Losing teams lose, and winning teams cash tickets.

It seems like some people are using a cutoff for odds of a lot lower than the -175, looks like either -140 or even -130.

[BrewMaster]

Brew Master, I’m confused, what does, NATS, RAYS, PLAY IF VALUED AT –140 OR BETTER represent?
Thanks for your help.

Shiva... the value listed is a threshold. Meaning if your book exceeds that threshold, it is a no play. The -140 threshold is a filter we set and the other values (I.e. -108) are thresholds set by the scientific approach.

I hope this clarifies.

[barts185]

Shiva... the value listed is a threshold. Meaning if your book exceeds that threshold, it is a no play. The -140 threshold is a filter we set and the other values (I.e. -108) are thresholds set by the scientific approach.

I hope this clarifies.

I think that -140 means it's not a play, so should probably read PLAY IF VALUED AT –139 OR BETTER

[Qtip]

From the ST link for proj ML they give this example:

EX: Houston's published ML - 170 and our ML -130, play is on Houston. If Boston's published ML is - 120 and our ML is - 150, play is on Boston's opponent.

Can anyone explain this? If the correct/projected ML is -130, then to get value on this selection wouldn't you want a ML of more positive value? laying $130 to make $100 would seem to be much better value than laying $170 to make the same $100.

[barts185]

From the ST link for proj ML they give this example:

EX: Houston's published ML - 170 and our ML -130, play is on Houston. If Boston's published ML is - 120 and our ML is - 150, play is on Boston's opponent.

Can anyone explain this? If the correct/projected ML is -130, then to get value on this selection wouldn't you want a ML of more positive value? laying $130 to make $100 would seem to be much better value than laying $170 to make the same $100.

The projected money line is based on the theory that what appears to be a good line, is in fact, misleading. This is described on the page. So, when it looks like you are getting a bargain in terms of the line, and the other filters are met, play the opposite side.

[Spaceviews]

Sorry, Don't want to clutter or confuse anything in this thread. Just wondering if I got this right- are the plays Wash, Seat, & Balt? Or Tampa?

[Qtip]

Sorry, Don't want to clutter or confuse anything in this thread. Just wondering if I got this right- are the plays Wash, Seat, & Balt? Or Tampa?

You should prob read page 1, as far as I understand there are multiple systems in this thread sometimes with contradictory picks. So it would depend on which system/filters you are talking about.

[BrewMaster]

You should prob read page 1, as far as I understand there are multiple systems in this thread sometimes with contradictory picks. So it would depend on which system/filters you are talking about.

That is accurate. There are several systems that we have been tracking individually. So far, there has been more overlap than contradiction. But it is still too early to make conclusions. Just an early observation.

Barts, technically you are correct. But I will keep listing the -140 number. The language will be "better than -140 or no play"

[ShivaBowl]

Shiva... the value listed is a threshold. Meaning if your book exceeds that threshold, it is a no play. The -140 threshold is a filter we set and the other values (I.e. -108) are thresholds set by the scientific approach. I hope this clarifies.

Thanks Brew Master, but the filter is only on favorites that are –140 and over.
It does not apply to numbers being used within the SA System.
All you do is filter out any team that is favored by -140 and over on that day.


Here are the SA Plays for today.
Using the 0.25 overlay.

WAS, if >+ 125 and over
SEA, if >+ 126 and over
TEX, if <-108 and under

OR you can post it this way?

WAS, N/P if <+125 and under
SEA, N/P if <+126 and under
TEX, N/P if >-108 and over

This play was filtered out today.
COL, if <-208 and under
No Play on any team if you lay >-140 and over.
No Play on COL. No play on TB, >-140

I think where are on, the same page now?
Thanks, Shiva

[Small Timer]

Yes, and Yes.

Not going over -175 is a rule that can be used universally. Fundamentally, betting into those type of lines is not a good strategy. You are risking more money, and two wins are needed to cover one loss.

Following streaks is handicapping 101. Losing teams lose, and winning teams cash tickets.

Nice, filters saved us from some losses tonight. Looks like the projected ML plays that you post did well too. Didn't play those but a nice night nonetheless.

[HoulihansTX]

Nice, filters saved us from some losses tonight. Looks like the projected ML plays that you post did well too. Didn't play those but a nice night nonetheless.

I do the Projected ML plays backwards, or opposite of the instructions. The way they instruct us to use the system is counter-intuitive, and would imply they dont trust their own handicapping.

I also copy down all the plays for every system. My goal is to find teams that fit into multiple systems, then play those teams.

Today Cleveland showed up on the TPR, and BPR. Also Seattle showed up on BPR, and "MY" Proj ML. I played those two games, and Washington.

[Qtip]

I do the Projected ML plays backwards, or opposite of the instructions. The way they instruct us to use the system is counter-intuitive, and would imply they dont trust their own handicapping.

I also copy down all the plays for every system. My goal is to find teams that fit into multiple systems, then play those teams.

Today Cleveland showed up on the TPR, and BPR. Also Seattle showed up on BPR, and "MY" Proj ML. I played those two games, and Washington.

Yeah I thought the same thing for the ML plays, but I think I finally figured it out. They used the dash "-" to denote a pause and then used the same symbol for a minus value ie) -140. So when you rewrite their example and take out the "dash's" and leave the minus' it makes sense.

Rewritten:
EX: Houston's published ML +170 and our ML -130, play is on Houston. If Boston's published ML is +120 and our ML is +150, play is on Boston's opponent.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it's the only way I could make sense of it.