New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

[ShivaBowl]

1-2 All games are 1 unit.

PR System Plays, went 1-1
STL was outside the line parameters at a majority of casinos >-134.
BOL

[ShivaBowl]

FYI: Print out the M/L System, it gives you IP, W/L Streaks and Early Lines.
It will save you on time.

http://www.sportrends.com/team_ml.htm

BOL

[HoulihansTX]

Overall
(2-1) +1.2Units
_________________
April 26
Bullpen Projection System

Florida 11.73 W (+120)
Toronto 4.00 W (+160)
Detroit 2.91 L (+105)
Angels 2.83 W (+105)
Arizona 2.00 W (+105)
Cincy 1.64 L (+105)
Yanks 1.02 L (-130)

Overall
(6-4) +3.80Units

_________________
April 27
Bullpen Projection System

Florida 9.57
Toronto 4.13
Arizona 2.99
Angels 2.83
Cleveland 2.67
Seattle 2.32
Cincy 2.02
Giants 1.47
Houston 1.29
White Sox 1.24

[BrewMaster]

Hey BrewMaster, lets try a new filter with SA System.

No play if –140 and over and No Play if +140 and over.
Lets track SA, with the new filters and see how it does.
What do you think?
BOL

I like it. I think it's a little bogus as most qualify with the 25 cent differential. I was thinking on increasing to 40 or 50 cent differential, but it's only been two days and I don't want to change too many variables at once.

Let's start with the -140 to +140 filter and see what happens

[BrewMaster]

Scientific Approach:

Marlins
Rockies*
Braves
Indians*
Cards*

*Play only if <-140

Never bet on a team favorite in which you must lay over -140.
Make sure each pitcher has pitched at least 20 innings.
Never bet on teams that are on a 2 games or more losing streak.
Never bet against a team on a 2 game winning streak or more.

Edit: Mets elminated due to <20 IP

[ShivaBowl]

TPR Plays
$25.00 on each game.
8:05 PM ET St. Louis Cardinals, 1.6
3:40 PM ET Arizona Diamondbacks, 1.1

NYY 2.4 N/P L/2 >-160
TEX, 1.4 N/P L/2 >-175
NYM, 1.3 N/P WAS IP <-20
DET, N/P >-200 SEA IP <-20
LAA, N/P >-165 OAK IP <-20

Filters
Never bet on a team favorite in which you must lay over -140.
Make sure each pitcher has pitched at least 20 innings.
Never bet on teams that are on a 2 games or more losing streak.
Never bet against a team on a 2 game winning streak or more.

[HoulihansTX]

I was thinking on increasing to 40 or 50 cent differential

That will not last. Soon enough you will not have any games that will fit those parameters.

We are only 1 month, into a 5 month season. Sportrends, and the books are on two different pages at this time. Both till meet in the middle, as the season matures.

[ShivaBowl]

I like it. I think it's a little bogus as most qualify with the 25 cent differential. I was thinking on increasing to 40 or 50 cent differential, but it's only been two days and I don't want to change too many variables at once. Let's start with the -140 to +140 filter and see what happens

I would go with the No play if > -140 its a system that's looking for live dogs. Forge about the N/Play if > +140.

[joeytunes]

fla!!

[barts185]

For the less than 20 innings pitched, are you eliminating games if EITHER pitcher has less than 20 IP, or only if the team you want to play on has less than 20 IP?

Eight games today have at least one of the pitchers with <20 IP.

[HoulihansTX]

For the less than 20 innings pitched, are you eliminating games if EITHER pitcher has less than 20 IP, or only if the team you want to play on has less than 20 IP?

Eight games today have at least one of the pitchers with <20 IP.

I prefer for both of them to have 20IP.

staying within the parameters to avoid confusion.

For the PML's today I got

Florida np>-130
Cleveland np>-175
Baltimore np<+130
STL np >-130

[barts185]

I prefer for both of them to have 20IP.

staying within the parameters to avoid confusion.

But I guess for the Bullpen Projected Runs, it's not a filter?

[chinoloco]

4/27/11 Pitching and Team Overall power rating.

Atlanta Braves
Phillies np >-130
st louis cardinals np >-130
Clevland Indians np >-130
Boston np >-130 .5 unit
Tampa Bay Rays.

[ShivaBowl]

BrewMaster, the SA System went 4-1 yesterday
STL,CLE, ATL, TB, FLA.
Also, a ton of winners filtered out, due to IP too bad
Thanks


Scientific Approach:

Marlins
Braves
Indians*
Cards*

*Play only if <-140

Never bet on a team favorite in which you must lay over -140.
Make sure each pitcher has pitched at least 20 innings.
Never bet on teams that are on a 2 games or more losing streak.
Never bet against a team on a 2 game winning streak or more.

Edit: Mets elminated due to <20 IP

[BrewMaster]

Yes. A good day for the SA system. However, the system went 3-1 since TB filtered out. Twins were on a 2-game winning streak. "Never bet against a team on a 2 game winning streak or more"

Correct me if I'm wrong.

-BM

BrewMaster, the SA System went 4-1 yesterday
STL,CLE, ATL, TB, FLA.
Also, a ton of winners filtered out, due to IP too bad
Thanks


Scientific Approach:

Marlins
Braves
Indians*
Cards*

*Play only if <-140

Never bet on a team favorite in which you must lay over -140.
Make sure each pitcher has pitched at least 20 innings.
Never bet on teams that are on a 2 games or more losing streak.
Never bet against a team on a 2 game winning streak or more.

Edit: Mets elminated due to <20 IP

[chinoloco]

4/27/11 Pitching and Team Overall power rating.

Atlanta Braves W
Phillies np >-130 NP
st louis cardinals np >-130 NP
Clevland Indians np >-130 NP
Boston np >-130 .5 unit NP
Tampa Bay Rays. W

2-0

[ShivaBowl]

Originally Posted by chinoloco
4/27/11 Pitching and Team Overall power rating.

Atlanta Braves W
Phillies np >-130 NP
st louis cardinals np >-130 NP
Clevland Indians np >-130 NP
Boston np >-130 .5 unit NP
Tampa Bay Rays. W

Nice night Chino,
When you post, can list the strongest plays first and so on.
TB +120 nice hit P/P Diff, 88.6 T/P 738.5 in TB, favor.
Thanks, GL

[ShivaBowl]

Originally Posted by chinoloco
4/27/11 Pitching and Team Overall power rating.

Atlanta Braves W
Phillies np >-130 NP
st louis cardinals np >-130 NP
Clevland Indians np >-130 NP
Boston np >-130 .5 unit NP
Tampa Bay Rays. W

Chino, I have a good feeling about the P/R System.
We are going to cash in with it this year!
BOL

[ShivaBowl]

In a few weeks, things are going to get a lot harder with MLB.
NBA and NHL will be gone and the books will have all there guns
pointed in our direction, these systems, will be a big help.
bol

[ShivaBowl]

Yes. A good day for the SA system. However, the system went 3-1 since TB filtered out. Twins were on a 2-game winning streak. "Never bet against a team on a 2 game winning streak or more" Correct me if I'm wrong. -BM

I guess so, TB was on 2 game win streak too, and if you take in account the strong # from P/R System ?
But your right? Its a gray area for me.
Thanks

[BrewMaster]

Scientific Approach:
4/27 result: 3-1

Mariners
Cardinals
Diamondbacks

Play if valued at -140 or better.


Filtered:
SF, TEX, WAS* (<20IP)
KC (L5)

WAS was a close play with 19.2 innings pitched. Your choice to play but for tracking it is considered a filtered no play. GL.

[ShivaBowl]

TPR Plays 04/28
STL, 1.7

[chinoloco]

4/28/11 Pitching and Team overall power rating.

St louis Cardinals np if >-130
Seattle Mariners
MN Twin game 1 = np, filtered out
Cleveland Indian np if >-130
MN Twins game 2.

[wikaj]

Chino, youre taking Minny game 1 and 2 no matter what the line is right?

[ShivaBowl]

Chino, youre taking Minny game 1 and 2 no matter what the line is right?

NO plays today on the Minnesota Twins, for the PR System.
thanks

[wikaj]

right on, thanks SB

[barts185]

Looks like several of the pages have the wrong matchups for the TAM/MIN games. Make sure you check the listed pitchers.

[barts185]

Scientific Approach:
4/27 result: 3-1

Mariners
Cardinals
Diamondbacks

Play if valued at -140 or better.


Filtered:
SF, TEX, WAS* (<20IP)
KC (L5)

WAS was a close play with 19.2 innings pitched. Your choice to play but for tracking it is considered a filtered no play. GL.

Minor, but important, point.

I think it should be play if valued at -139 or better. It's not a play at -140.

I got a few other games filtered out, but the play list is the same.

[ShivaBowl]

Good work BrewMaster,
The only thing I see is NO PLAY ON STL, IF >-140

This terminology doesn't fit, Play if valued at -140 or better.
It looks like your saying play on STL if -140 and over.

This system is looking for live dogs, so we don’t want to
play on any favorites that are >-140–141-142 and so on.


Scientific Approach:
4/27 result: 3-1
Mariners
Cardinals
Diamondbacks
Play if valued at -140 or better.
Filtered:
SF, TEX, WAS* (<20IP)
KC (L5)

WAS was a close play with 19.2 innings pitched. Your choice to play but for tracking it is considered a filtered no
play.
I did the same thing with TPR today n/p on the nym.

GL.

[ShivaBowl]

Hey HoulihansTX, I know the BPR system doesn’t kick in until May 15th
But you’re doing just fine with it, if you feel that it should be posted
now, that’s fine with me, I can and will use it.
Thanks, BOL

[barts185]

Hey HoulihansTX, I know the BPR system doesn’t kick in until May 15th
But you’re doing just fine with it, if you feel that it should be posted
now, that’s fine with me, I can and will use it.
Thanks, BOL

Shiva,

In case you don't have them (not looking to post instead of HoulihansTX, just doing it this time), they are below in the order they appear on the page.


I have 2 questions:

1) Are 1.00 and -1.00 plays, or does it have to be 1.01 and -1.01?


2) What do we do, if anything, with double headers? If I recall, last year when there was a double header it just listed the same value twice all the time.

For example, today Tampa Bay is listed twice, with the same value for the bullpen. It seems obvious that this would most likely change after game 1.


Do we use it for both games, or no games, or the first game?

Plays / values for 04/28 (note - just listing the values. I'm not sure what filters, if any, apply to the bullpen plays - there aren't any filters listed on the page other than not starting until May 15).

Seattle 1.96
Tampa Bay 4.67
Toronto 3.67
NY Mets 1.31
Cleveland -2.11
NY Yankees -1.08
Baltimore -1.14
Tampa Bay 4.67
Arizona -3.65

[Small Timer]

Barts I played all those except the Yankees because they are so high, also don't know whether to play Tampa twice today. Other than that I got all the same plays,

[rask7rask7]

Best of luck with your picks

[Vastey]

Guys, nobody will go with Best Bets from Fastball program? I collect statistics for it and it rather sad now. But Sportrends recommend to use it since 30th of April.

[ShivaBowl]

[quote=barts185;9800427] Shiva, In case you don't have them (not looking to post instead of HoulihansTX, just doing it this time), they are below in the order they appear on the page. I have 2 questions: 1) Are 1.00 and -1.00 plays, or does it have to be 1.01 and -1.01? 2) What do we do, if anything, with double headers? If I recall, last year when there was a double header?


Check with HoulihansTX, but the 1.01 and -1.01 never comes up with the system, its always 0.99 or 1.01.
On double headers it the same as any other day check filters and apply win loss and money line filters.
Thanks