1. #1
    stevenash
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    Nash 2023 MLB

    Brewers -138 Cubs

    Handicapping the pitching here (Burnes v. Stroman) Milwaukee's Burnes is not just a staff ace, but a league ace, Chicago's Stroman steps into the staff ace role, even though posting decent numbers last season is clearly overmatched (on paper)

    It's a bullpen game now too.
    Bullpens make up on the average of 40 percent of staff innings pitched.
    Only a select few aces pitch into the eight inning now, starters are generally 'five and fly' these days.

    Former Tiger rotation starter castoff Michael Fullmer steps into the closer role for the Cubs, and I have total distrust in him. Bader is no longer the Brewers closer, he left, Devin Williams closes for the Brewers, was outstanding, stellar in 65 games last season, eye popping 96 K's in 60 IP's, ERA of 1.93, 26 holds, 15 saves, proved he can hold leads and save games, just stellar across the board numbers, a little high on the walks, which in not a big concern considering he doesn't yield the gopher ball, only two balls hit pitched left the park last season.

    The supporting casts (setup men/middle relievers) favor Brewers as well.

    Brewers have the edge in this one in starting pitching, relief pitching, and lineup.

    I don't want to tell anyone how to handicap a baseball game, your money, your investment, I don't want somebody to lose because I was on the wrong side, these are just writeups as I see it, but if you're into the MLB six month haul, and it's a grind, believe that, I've been writing MLB for years, it'll behoove you to handicap every teams bullpens, and before wagering on a game make sure you're aware as to who is available and who is not.

    Like I said, 72 percent of the innings are not eaten by starters any longer, neither are one third, last season on the average 40 percent of all the innings pitched were thrown by relievers.
    Nothings changed, it's 60/40 now.

    Generally I'll wager a run line only on the road with an ace or superior starter going for me.
    Why on the road and not home?
    Simple, the road team is guaranteed a ninth inning at bat, a home team is not.
    Many at time that ninth inning at bat has salvages my bet.
    The road Brewers on the run line is an option if you don't want to lay the -138

    I'm generally a spot underdog player, I don't like laying anything over -133, or 4 to win 3 if you will, however I like this play.

    Brewers -138
    (+122 run line is in consideration as well)

    Best of luck this season, bet smart
    Play ball.
    Last edited by stevenash; 03-30-23 at 10:11 AM. Reason: punctuation
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  2. #2
    Madison
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    Great post. I'll tail. Glad to you have you posting MLB.

    When you have a moment would love your thoughts on FFive. If you can't or won't analyze bullpen availability then starters is a great way to play FFive IMHO, especially early on.

  3. #3
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    gl this season, nasher

    enjoy opening day

  4. #4
    KnuckleHeadz
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    Cmon Nasher I need a bailout game for tonight.
    Last nights NBA total and this brewers game has me at the soup kitchen and you know how I like too eat

  5. #5
    stevenash
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    ^

    Rough fourth inning.
    4-0

    Bit of a slump here, was on a cooler, than went on a heater, now two losses in a row.
    I tell you it's a grind.

    MLB season, 30 teams x 162 games = 4860 games.

    If you ride with your pal Nasher you have to take the highs with the lows.
    Geez, where were the Brewers sticks today though?

    My KC Royals are deadlocked at zero's in the fifth inning, Greinke and Lopez are both pitching out of their shoes.

    I've seen this movie a lot of times, KC Royals starters pitch brilliant, and one of the four bullpen will shit the bed, I can see it now, oh the humanity, hold your breath, hide the kiddies and women when the KC bullpen comes in.
    tbc...

    Sorry for the Brews loss, I'll seek out a bailout, I don't force bets though, if nothing is there than nothing is there.
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  6. #6
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Nasher will win his next three plays.

    WATCH
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  7. #7
    stevenash
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    You know you're my bestest post pal Diggity Dggity Doobie, thanks for the added pressure though.

    But yeah, I smell a heater coming on, or is that Tessie Dog I smell.

  8. #8
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    You know you're my bestest post pal Diggity Dggity Doobie, thanks for the added pressure though.

    But yeah, I smell a heater coming on, or is that Tessie Dog I smell.
    Is that a question? Are you asking me if we smell a HEATER or dog poop?



    It’s definitely a HEATER.

    WATCH

  9. #9
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madison View Post
    Great post. I'll tail. Glad to you have you posting MLB.

    When you have a moment would love your thoughts on FFive. If you can't or won't analyze bullpen availability then starters is a great way to play FFive IMHO, especially early on.
    I'm going to be doing a lot of FF's this season starting after the weekend, there are so many bad bullpens out there that just waste the starters efforts. Like my KC Royals.

    Speaking of my beloved KC Royals, you know you suck when the newsletters I get are offering five dollar lower level seats at the 'K'.

    Four games left on the card, looking at them now.

  10. #10
    Pete0
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    Nasher, sorry for posting this in an MLB thread.

    ur quick thoughts on Uconn -5.5 ? too big a no. & ML?
    Last edited by Pete0; 03-31-23 at 03:34 PM. Reason: misspell

  11. #11
    stevenash
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    Smash the money line on UConn

    I have a MLB play.
    Marlins +100 tonight.

  12. #12
    Pete0
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Smash the money line on UConn

    I have a MLB play.
    Marlins +100 tonight.

    TY Good sir, kind sir

  13. #13
    mcmc
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    Nice hit Nasher!

  14. #14
    stevenash
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    ^
    Thank you, I appreciate that.
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  15. #15
    johnnyvegas13
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    Nash u worried at all about Jordan Hawkins illness

    usaually these things mean nothing but still prob not what u wanted to see here

  16. #16
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Smash the money line on UConn

    I have a MLB play.
    Marlins +100 tonight.

  17. #17
    Headsterx
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Smash the money line on UConn

    I have a MLB play.
    Marlins +100 tonight.
    Nice hit!

  18. #18
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    nash, this first week or 2 is like throwing darts.

  19. #19
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAKEPEAVY21 View Post
    nash, this first week or 2 is like throwing darts.
    Don't I know it.

    Years and years of baseball handicapping have taught me you really need to wait for rotation starters to complete their third start before you can get a feel for their form, which is why at the start of the season I'll usually just make small spot plays and keep it simple with small 1* flat bets.

    I'm reluctant to lay more than 4:3 or -133 on any play, reason being betting chalk will destroy bankrolls.

    Case in point, remember two or three years ago in the first week of the season there were ten games -200 or higher, and eight of those games lost, all started by staff and league aces. It's well documented in the MLB subforum deep in the bowels of the archives.

    That was a burial for chalk eaters that no matter how good they are can never recover from.

    Good point JP, the first three weeks are generally a dice throw.

    How you doing pal?
    Did you get out to PETCO for the Jake Peavy ceremony?
    JP was a pro's pro, mad respect for him, Trevor Hoffman too, the only reliever you can put in the same sentence with Mo Rivera if you ask me.

  20. #20
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Don't I know it.

    Years and years of baseball handicapping have taught me you really need to wait for rotation starters to complete their third start before you can get a feel for their form, which is why at the start of the season I'll usually just make small spot plays and keep it simple with small 1* flat bets.

    I'm reluctant to lay more than 4:3 or -133 on any play, reason being betting chalk will destroy bankrolls.

    Case in point, remember two or three years ago in the first week of the season there were ten games -200 or higher, and eight of those games lost, all started by staff and league aces. It's well documented in the MLB subforum deep in the bowels of the archives.

    That was a burial for chalk eaters that no matter how good they are can never recover from.

    Good point JP, the first three weeks are generally a dice throw.

    How you doing pal?
    Did you get out to PETCO for the Jake Peavy ceremony?
    JP was a pro's pro, mad respect for him, Trevor Hoffman too, the only reliever you can put in the same sentence with Mo Rivera if you ask me.
    No, I rarely go to games anymore. I do once in awhile but prefer watching games at home nowadays for numerous reasons.

  21. #21
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAKEPEAVY21 View Post
    No, I rarely go to games anymore. I do once in awhile but prefer watching games at home nowadays for numerous reasons.
    Ditto.

    I used to get out to Fenway and drive down the I-95 to Yankee Stadium all the time back in the day.

    No longer, it's about 40 bucks these days, BG can verify, but I think it's 40 bucks now just to park in the lot across the street from Fenway, since I am not a CEO of some tech firm I can't afford even to get in the gates of Fenway, forget about a coke and dog to munch on during the game.


    Best of luck JP today, and by all means stay in touch.
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  22. #22
    Pete0
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  23. #23
    Pete0
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    bump,

    3 weeks have passed.

    Nasher any thoughts on games today ?

  24. #24
    Pete0
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    bump

    why is this not in players talk?

    Nasherrrr, has the power gone to ur head ?

  25. #25
    Pete0
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    bump

    Nasherrr....

  26. #26
    unde0087
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    he is too busy banning the rest of the 12 members that were here 10 years before him that built the house he is in.

  27. #27
    BeatTheJerk
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    Any record keeping going on in here ? 🤔

  28. #28
    veriableodds
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    Is NASHER back yet, what up with these 3 rotations cycle's.

  29. #29
    Pete0
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    Nasherrrr

    Whats going on here?

    Its been baseball season...

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