Betting Favorites - Season Thread

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  • Panekkkk
    SBR MVP
    • 03-12-09
    • 2430

    #1
    Betting Favorites - Season Thread
    Now that we are into May I will start posting my "Betting Favorites" system. As the name suggests, this system ONLY bets favorites. I have been working hard to develop filters to keep this system hitting near 70% meaning that it is profitable over the long term. At most, there may be 3-4 plays a day, but there are often none. This system is meant to produce a nice return over the long-term.

    I started this last year as well, but have since continued to refine the filters: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...al-system.html. The core of the system picks the plays, these additional live filters shape the plays the system picks.

    "Live" Rules/Filters

    1. Exclude favorites of -165 or greater (in regards to the "reference line" only -- this will not affect any plays once I have posted them even if the line moves past -165 to -170 for example)
    2. Exclude games in which the closing line is 10 cents or more in the opposite direction according to Pinnacle
    3. Home teams = 2 units
    4. Road teams = 1 unit
    5. I will soon begin parlaying these games as well since that too has proven profitable. I will only begin this once I am satisfied with my filters (need more data to confirm)

    In regards to Rule #2, I will post my plays every morning. The line posted will be the "reference" line. If near closing time, the line has moved 10 cents or more in the opposite direction of the reference line, according to Pinnacle, that game is no longer a play. This means that plays will be finalized within 5-30 minutes prior to game time. I may not always be at the computer to post "FINAL" plays so if you choose to tail, the onus is on you to watch the line prior to game time. Waiting to bet does not seem to affect the road teams, since the line has moved a sum of +3 in the opposite direction, whereas the line has moved a sum of -84 cents for home teams.

    YTD:
    Home teams 19-2
    Road teams 11-3

    There is some bias in the road teams data since I have used the last month to develop additional filters that have given those results. No new filters have been added to the home teams, and the result is really astonishing so I expect a few losses shortly to bring the average back down.

    Tail at your own risk, and be cautious of the road plays for now, since those filters are still in development. GL all, I hope to have around 70+ units by the end of July (August seemed too unpredictable last year).

    GL
  • Panekkkk
    SBR MVP
    • 03-12-09
    • 2430

    #2
    May 4th

    POTENTIAL PLAYS

    All road teams (11-3 YTD):

    1* Cubs -152
    1* Blue Jays -120
    1* Rays -134

    REMEMBER: If the Pinnacle line near closing is 10 cents or more in the opposite direction of the lines posted = NO PLAY.

    STD (since posting):
    Home: 0-0 0 units
    Road: 0-0 0 units
    Comment
    • HighVoltage
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 05-31-09
      • 562

      #3
      I remember you working on this last year. GL with your plays.
      Comment
      • Panekkkk
        SBR MVP
        • 03-12-09
        • 2430

        #4
        Thanks HV,

        Last year was kind of a test run to see if it was successful. Now that I know that it can be, I have tracked the games much more closely this year and hopefully have added a few more filters to improve the results. But it will be a work in progress.

        Comment
        • Collecting
          SBR Sharp
          • 12-02-09
          • 370

          #5
          Did you run this over april to see if it would hold up? if so, how'd it do?
          Comment
          • Dwell
            SBR High Roller
            • 03-09-10
            • 141

            #6
            Excitement!
            Comment
            • Panekkkk
              SBR MVP
              • 03-12-09
              • 2430

              #7
              Originally posted by Panekkkk
              May 4th

              POTENTIAL PLAYS

              All road teams (11-3 YTD):

              1* Cubs -152
              1* Blue Jays -120
              1* Rays -134

              REMEMBER: If the Pinnacle line near closing is 10 cents or more in the opposite direction of the lines posted = NO PLAY.

              STD (since posting):
              Home: 0-0 0 units
              Road: 0-0 0 units
              Won't be around to post near game time, only line moving in the wrong direction right now is the Rays but I don't think it will move out of range. Hoping for a good start to the season!
              Comment
              • Panekkkk
                SBR MVP
                • 03-12-09
                • 2430

                #8
                Originally posted by Collecting
                Did you run this over april to see if it would hold up? if so, how'd it do?
                The results I posted in the top of the thread were from April 2010:

                Home teams were 19-2 and Road teams were 11-3 (after applying filters). These results are however somewhat biased, since I used April's data to improve the road team records (i.e., data mining). The actual road record was 16-15, but one filter improved that to 11-3 so I'm cautious to see how this plays out prospectively. I didn't have to touch the home games but obviously 19-2 is more than I could have hoped for and there's no way that it will continue to hit at that clip. One thing I noticed from April was to exclude games that moved 10 cents in the opposite direction from the reference line. This is usually for obvious reasons like last-minute lineup changes so I'll continue using that as a filter going forward.
                Comment
                • stefan084
                  SBR MVP
                  • 07-21-09
                  • 1490

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Panekkkk
                  The results I posted in the top of the thread were from April 2010:

                  Home teams were 19-2 and Road teams were 11-3 (after applying filters). These results are however somewhat biased, since I used April's data to improve the road team records (i.e., data mining). The actual road record was 16-15, but one filter improved that to 11-3 so I'm cautious to see how this plays out prospectively. I didn't have to touch the home games but obviously 19-2 is more than I could have hoped for and there's no way that it will continue to hit at that clip. One thing I noticed from April was to exclude games that moved 10 cents in the opposite direction from the reference line. This is usually for obvious reasons like last-minute lineup changes so I'll continue using that as a filter going forward.
                  thanks for all the hard work--i'll be excited to see the results as i love working on systems too
                  Comment
                  • Panekkkk
                    SBR MVP
                    • 03-12-09
                    • 2430

                    #10
                    Man I hate Lyle Overbay... B2B errors plates another Indian. Looking like it might just be one of those games. First 4 Indian runs all came on 2 outs with a few infield singles.
                    Comment
                    • blingish
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 05-02-10
                      • 219

                      #11
                      I don't mean to sound like an idiot... But when you say the line moves 10 cents in the opposite direction, I assume you mean a line moving from say -140 to -130?

                      I think you may be on to something with this system and I will be following you.

                      I like to bet the dogs and unders but I am always looking for a way to find good value in favorites!

                      Thanks
                      Comment
                      • TodaysAction
                        Restricted User
                        • 08-01-08
                        • 12762

                        #12
                        Panekkkk,

                        Nice to see you're still around. What you're doing will provide positive results for the season. Good choice of filters. Will make it a point to drop/pop in to see how things are going.
                        Comment
                        • Panekkkk
                          SBR MVP
                          • 03-12-09
                          • 2430

                          #13
                          Originally posted by TodaysAction
                          Panekkkk,

                          Nice to see you're still around. What you're doing will provide positive results for the season. Good choice of filters. Will make it a point to drop/pop in to see how things are going.
                          Thanks for popping by TA

                          Continued success to you as well. The filters I listed are just the public ones . A lot more going on behind the scenes
                          Comment
                          • Panekkkk
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-12-09
                            • 2430

                            #14
                            Originally posted by blingish
                            I don't mean to sound like an idiot... But when you say the line moves 10 cents in the opposite direction, I assume you mean a line moving from say -140 to -130?

                            I think you may be on to something with this system and I will be following you.

                            I like to bet the dogs and unders but I am always looking for a way to find good value in favorites!

                            Thanks
                            Yep you got it, so for example -140 to -130, -129, -128 etc. = NO PLAY
                            Comment
                            • Panekkkk
                              SBR MVP
                              • 03-12-09
                              • 2430

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Panekkkk
                              May 4th

                              POTENTIAL PLAYS

                              All road teams (11-3 YTD):

                              1* Cubs -152
                              1* Blue Jays -120
                              1* Rays -134

                              REMEMBER: If the Pinnacle line near closing is 10 cents or more in the opposite direction of the lines posted = NO PLAY.

                              STD (since posting):
                              Home: 0-0 0 units
                              Road: 0-0 0 units
                              1-1 with 1 play pending. 2 run HR with 2 outs on a 1-2 count was the difference in the Cubs game. Can't win em 'all but looking for a cash positive night. Headin' to bed. Guessin' there might be 2-3 plays tomorrow at first glance.
                              Comment
                              • NBAStats
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 01-18-10
                                • 665

                                #16
                                So you are closing numbers to keep track of units? I would assume so as you are advising to wait until as close to game time as possible.
                                Comment
                                • NBAStats
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 01-18-10
                                  • 665

                                  #17
                                  And you talked about new filters being added in for road teams. What are they? There are additional rules/filters other than the 1-5 that you posted?
                                  Comment
                                  • NBAStats
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 01-18-10
                                    • 665

                                    #18
                                    And sorry to keep bombing with you with questions, but I keep thinking of new ones. Why the -165 as the cutoff?
                                    Comment
                                    • NBAStats
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 01-18-10
                                      • 665

                                      #19
                                      And also, if a line starts at -160 and prices to -175 at near close is it a no play?
                                      Comment
                                      • Panekkkk
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 03-12-09
                                        • 2430

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by NBAStats
                                        And also, if a line starts at -160 and prices to -175 at near close is it a no play?
                                        Good question actually. The -165 cutoff applies only to reference line. I can't really go into detail about why that is but it's how I've found the system to be successful.

                                        If I post a game that's -160 and it moves to -175 it is still a play.
                                        Comment
                                        • Panekkkk
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-12-09
                                          • 2430

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by NBAStats
                                          And you talked about new filters being added in for road teams. What are they? There are additional rules/filters other than the 1-5 that you posted?
                                          There are additional filters for the road teams. The system develops picks and I've added some additional "live" filters (as posted). One thing I noticed for road teams was to avoid road games with a total of 9.5 or greater or 7 and lower. Higher totals mean more runs being scored so greater possibility of road team scoring runs. Again, this does not apply universally to all road favorites, just to ones that meet my core system.
                                          Comment
                                          • Panekkkk
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 03-12-09
                                            • 2430

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by NBAStats
                                            So you are closing numbers to keep track of units? I would assume so as you are advising to wait until as close to game time as possible.
                                            Yes, I advise waiting as close to game time as possible to be sure the line doesn't move in the wrong direction but sometimes I will pull the trigger if the line starts moving largely in the right direction (e.g., -150 to -160).

                                            I will keep track of units according to when I myself laid down the play, but obviously it will vary with others depending on when the play was booked.
                                            Comment
                                            • Panekkkk
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 03-12-09
                                              • 2430

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                              May 4th

                                              POTENTIAL PLAYS

                                              All road teams (11-3 YTD):

                                              1* Cubs -152
                                              1* Blue Jays -120
                                              1* Rays -134

                                              REMEMBER: If the Pinnacle line near closing is 10 cents or more in the opposite direction of the lines posted = NO PLAY.
                                              Cash positive night. Nothing wrong with that! Just a reminder, that the units are based on the lines at the time I played them, so they may vary slightly from the closing lines posted. I think this is a more honest approach.

                                              STD

                                              Home: 0-0 for 0 units
                                              Road: 2-1 for +0.47 units
                                              Comment
                                              • Panekkkk
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 03-12-09
                                                • 2430

                                                #24
                                                May 5th

                                                POTENTIAL PLAYS

                                                HOME:

                                                2* Twins -150
                                                2* Red Sox -162


                                                ROAD:

                                                1* Rangers -128
                                                1* Braves -145


                                                Remember, if line near closing is 10 cents or more in the opposite direction = NO PLAY. Otherwise, all are a go. I'm not so confident about the Red Sox pick since it's right near the cut-point of -165. But, I can't go against the system now.

                                                STD

                                                Home: 0-0 for 0 units
                                                Road: 2-1 for +0.47 units
                                                Comment
                                                • masse
                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                  • 04-13-10
                                                  • 28

                                                  #25
                                                  like the twins tonight
                                                  Comment
                                                  • steelcity
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 04-26-10
                                                    • 488

                                                    #26
                                                    I like the bases of your system. BOL today.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Panekkkk
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 03-12-09
                                                      • 2430

                                                      #27
                                                      Adding a PERSONAL PLAY for thread followers. This is not part of the Betting Favorites system so play at your own risk

                                                      1.5* Orioles +2.5 -140
                                                      0.75* Orioles ML +255


                                                      This is a system play that has already cashed 3 big dogs this season (which incidentally makes it a bit less likely that this will cash today). But because it's a system play I have to play it. A little hint behind the play: Teams don't like losing 3 games in a row as large dogs in the same series.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Panekkkk
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 03-12-09
                                                        • 2430

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by steelcity
                                                        I like the bases of your system. BOL today.
                                                        Thanks! It's a very conservative system which suits how I like to play. Units are made over time. You from the Hammer steelcity? Or Pittsburgh?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • GGPLAYER
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-26-09
                                                          • 2981

                                                          #29
                                                          The way the ATL line is moving should that be a play now so to avoid the risk of it getting even higer?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Panekkkk
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 03-12-09
                                                            • 2430

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                                                            The way the ATL line is moving should that be a play now so to avoid the risk of it getting even higer?
                                                            Hmmm wow, that was a pretty big jump. It's always tough to say. Sometimes after a big jump it'll drop again a few points. But a jump that big makes me think that a lineup change has been reported.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Panekkkk
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 03-12-09
                                                              • 2430

                                                              #31
                                                              I'll probably wait another hour or so to see if it drops a bit.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • GGPLAYER
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 03-26-09
                                                                • 2981

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                                                May 5th

                                                                POTENTIAL PLAYS

                                                                HOME:

                                                                2* Twins -150
                                                                2* Red Sox -162

                                                                ROAD:

                                                                1* Rangers -128
                                                                1* Braves -145

                                                                Remember, if line near closing is 10 cents or more in the opposite direction = NO PLAY. Otherwise, all are a go. I'm not so confident about the Red Sox pick since it's right near the cut-point of -165. But, I can't go against the system now.

                                                                STD

                                                                Home: 0-0 for 0 units
                                                                Road: 2-1 for +0.47 units
                                                                Lock and Load on Minny? It's at -141 on Pinny right now
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Panekkkk
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 03-12-09
                                                                  • 2430

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Sorry was away. Yeah I played it. Line moved 9 points but stayed within range! Still a little scary with that much movement but I had to draw the cutoff somewhere.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Panekkkk
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 03-12-09
                                                                    • 2430

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Orioles getting lots of men on but two double plays in 2 innings is not the way to start
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Panekkkk
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-12-09
                                                                      • 2430

                                                                      #35
                                                                      10 LOB by Orioles in 3 innings... Wow!

                                                                      System play Twins are lookin' good though.
                                                                      Comment
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