EP36's Bullpen Session

[EaglesPhan36]

FASTBALL
To Citi Field for this one where we find a pair of resurgent pitchers so far in 2010 as the Cubs an Mets mee. It's Carlos Silva & Oliver Perez. Silva has been superb in two starts, yielding just 1 ER [3 runs overall] in 13.1 IP. Perez gave up 4 ER in his season debut at Citi Field against the Nationals, but then held St.Louis to just 1 ER in 6.1 IP. The ket as always with Perez is control. When he's on, he's on, but when his control is wild ... he can get pounded. With a Cubs team that has only scored six runs in its last four games, he should have a chance to put out a quality start tonight. If he can, the Mets bullpen could shut the door as they have a ridonkulous 1.01 ERA at home. Chicago is hitting .250 against lefties on the road so far. For Silva, he faces a Mets club hitting just .238 against right handed pitching at Citi Field. Silva is the key element here as the Cubs bullpen has been in meltdown mode all year. Of the 10 runs scored by NY in the first two games of this series, 7 have come against the bullpen - so the longer Silva goes, the better. The Cubs have been a pretty big UNDER squad on the road with 7 of their 8 road games going to totals of 9 or less, including their last seven straight. In this series between these two at Citi Field, the last five have hit UNDER. Also, five straight for the Cubs & six straight for the Mets have hit at 9 or UNDER. The O/U is set at 8.5 at most shops, but I'll take the extra help at 9 for -125.

Rain could delay the start of this one.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 9-3 [+5.67]
Forkball: 6-4-2 [+1.48]
Fastball: 7-6-1 [-0.36]
Change-up: 1-2 [-1.00]

TOTAL: 23-15-3 [+5.79]

Bullpens are a bitch. At least the Dodgers are still alive for the series win tomorrow.

[EaglesPhan36]

THURSDAY, APRIL 22nd

FORKBALL
Lawdy lawdy help me as I go to Target Field for an UNDER shot today. The Tribe & Twins square off in the finale of their series with young Mitch Talbot tackling Scott Baker. Baker has been an Indians killer in recent times with a 5-0 mark against Cleveland in his last seven starts with a 2.66 ERA. In 2009, Baker pitched against the Tribe four times and held them to 1 ER or LESS three times. After a shaky open to 2010, Baker has now had back-2-back solid starts with 14 IP in his last two and just 3 earned runs allowed. Talbot bounced back in his last start with a complete game win over the White Sox after allowing 4 ER in 5 IP against Detroit in his Cleveland debut. Control is the key for Talbot as he walked none in his CG after walking 5 in 5 innings against the Tigers. Baker should have his way with this lineup as the Tribe have scored on run in the 1st two games of this series and are hitting just .228 vs. righties this season. Both bullpens are adequate with the Twins better at a 3.18 ERA at home, while the Indians have a 4.00 ERA on the road. Twins pen is well rested having tossed just two innings in two games here, while the Indians definitely need a strong start from Talbot as their bullpen has been taxed for 8 innings in Games 1 & 2. The plus is they have allowed only two runs in that span. Indians road games have hit UNDER in 6 of 8 with one PUSH and UNDER has hit in 8 of their last 10 overall. 5 of the 8 games at Target Field in 2010 have hit for 9 runs or UNDER with the three OVERs coming against the Royals. Total is 9 today at -130. 8.5 available for -105. With 12 of the Tribe's 14 games this season going 8 runs or under, I'll bargain shop today on the 8.5 and hope the bullpens don't implode. Feel like I need a lick from Lady Luck, so I offer this sexy TWINS sacrifice.

[EaglesPhan36]

CURVEBALL
Uncle Charlie knows there will be a lot of nerves at Nationals Park today with the Rockies and Nationals playing. Why? Something has to give. You've got Ubaldo Jimenez fresh off his no-no against the Nationals, who again, have really flown under the radar with this one offensive stat. Washington has now scored at least 4 runs in 13 of their 15 games this season. That also includes 8 of 9 at home that they have met or exceeded the four run mark and 11 straight overall. The Nationals are mashing righties at home to the tune of .306. Jimenez has obviously been stellar not just in his last appearance, but all season so far where he has allowed 2 ER or less in his three starts. With the exception of Jimenez' no hitter, the Rockies have allowed 4 or more runs in 7 of their last 8. Nationals Team Total today is 3.5. OVER is at +100. Uncle Charles says the streak is a streak until it's broken and that Ubaldo might feel a little pressure today to be too perfect. Charles is in charge, so let's bend this one in for a winner.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 9-3 [+5.67]
Forkball: 6-5-2 [+0.43]
Fastball: 7-6-1 [-0.36]
Change-up: 1-2 [-1.00]

TOTAL: 23-16-3 [+4.74]

Guess that's Karma for ya. Half run saves me yesterday and me choosing to bypass it burns me today.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 9-4 [+4.67]
Forkball: 6-5-2 [+0.43]
Fastball: 7-6-1 [-0.36]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 23-18-3 [+2.29]

Bullpens have ravaged me in the last couple days. Dodgers have NONE or they would have won this series against the Reds. Might have to lay off the series bets if I miss another one, don't seem to have a feel for it. Need to get on track tomorrow damn it.

[EaglesPhan36]

FRIDAY, APRIL 23rd

FASTBALL
It is Matt Garza day! But, I think this has the potential to fit into the OVER tonight - not because Garza isn't a stud, but because the Rays are flat out killing the ball right now. So, we'll steer clear from the game total and go to the team total for the Blue Jays. It's set at 3.5. Now, back to Matt Garza. His career numbers against Toronto are staggering. He's 6-3 in 10 career starts with a 1.70 ERA. Consider his first start against them in 2006 was a 2+ IP performance where he yielded 7 ER and you can do the math, he has been flat out dominant against them since. Last season in four starts, he allowed 4 ERs total. Toronto scored a total of five runs in those four games. The Jays in fact have not had great success scoring runs against the Rays period. In 9 games in TB last season, they failed to score more than three runs in 6 of 9 and in 11 of 18 overall meetings in 2009. The Jays are hitting just .225 as a team this season. The Rays have allowed 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 10 overall and in all 3 of Garza's 2010 starts. He's gone 8 in each start and that would be helpful to avoid any bullpen catastrophes. Here comes the heater. Blue Jays UNDER 3.5 tonight at -125.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 9-4 [+4.67]
Forkball: 6-5-2 [+0.43]
Fastball: 7-7-1 [-1.61]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 23-19-3 [+1.04]

[EaglesPhan36]

SATURDAY, APRIL 23rd

CURVEBALL
The Cincinnati Reds have been giving up runs at an alarming rate this season. Their team ERA stands at 6.20. Johnny Cueto toes the rubber this afternoon as Cincy hosts the Padres. SD exploded for 10 runs in the series opener last night. Quietly, SD has won 7 straight and their bats have been adequate with a .271 average against righties in their last 10. Cueto has only gotten through 16 innings in 3 starts, averaging 5+ innings pitched only. That means plenty of opportunity against a poor Cincinnati bullpen that sports a 7.04 ERA at home. The Padres may not have a great offense, but they have now scored at least 4 runs in 4 of their last 5 at Great American Ballpark. In Cueto's three starts this season, the opposition has wound up with at least 4 runs in all three. Last season i his lone start vs. SD, the Padres pounded Cueto for 6 ER in 4 IP. Wil Venable killed him with four hits. If San Diego is patient and works the count vs. Cueto, look for them to get their opportunities and have a chance to finish things off against the bullpen. The pick: Padres Team Total OVER 4 at -110.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 10-4 [+5.67]
Forkball: 6-5-2 [+0.43]
Fastball: 7-7-1 [-1.61]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 24-19-3 [+2.04]

[EaglesPhan36]

MONDAY, APRIL 26th

FORKBALL
Padres & Marlins tonight. San Diego is coming off a heart breaking late inning loss to the Reds on Sunday that broke their 8 game winning streak. Still, their offense has been clicking enough to score 4 runs or more in 7 of their last 9. Florida meanwhile is back at home where their games have gone OVER in 6 of 7 this season. This series has also been an OVER magnet in Florida with 8 of the last 9 going OVER. Latos got fried by the Fish last year in Florida and has had some trouble on the road in his young career. Despite pretty solid numbers overall, Josh Johnson's 4 starts have all found 8 runs due to run support or faulty bullpen work. Interestingly, 4 of the 5 Game 1s in series with the Marlins have gone OVER this season. 4 of 6 Game 1s for San Diego have also gone OVER. Play is OVER with the total at 8 at -105.

[pitman]

forked the bookies with that one!!!! good stuff
i was on fla tt ov 4.5

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 10-4 [+5.67]
Forkball: 7-5-2 [+1.43]
Fastball: 7-7-1 [-1.61]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 25-19-3 [+3.04]

Pitman your avatar is exquisite!

[EaglesPhan36]

TUESDAY, APRIL 27th

FORKBALL
The Mets host the Dodgers in Game 1 of a twinbill this afternoon at Citi Field. Santana vs. Kuroda in the matinee start. Kuroda has had all sorts of problems in his brief time in MLB against the Mets with a 10.45 ERA in 3 starts. That includes giving up 5 runs in 4+ IP last season at Citi Field. He could be the tonic for an anemic Mets offense that in spite of their recent winning ways has still not gotten into a groove. Several Mets have found success in limited ABs against Kuroda, most notably Reyes, Wright and Matthews. Despite pitching well, Kuroda's 3 starts have still found the opposition scoring 5 or more runs by game's end in 2 of 3. Give thanks to the leaky Dodgers pen which has a 5.14 ERA. In all three career Kuroda starts vs. NYM, the Mets have been able to get at least four runs. Team Total for the Mets is 3.5. Taking the OVER at -120.

[Wilforth]

BOL.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 10-4 [+5.67]
Forkball: 8-5-2 [+2.43]
Fastball: 7-7-1 [-1.61]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 26-19-3 [+4.04]

Think I have found a couple of bullpens to get on the right side of as far as totals, Reds & Dodgers have been big time Napalm this season. Just a little note from me to you. Thanks Dodger Blue for sucking ass in relief and getting the Mets OVER.

[EaglesPhan36]

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 28th

FASTBALL
Mariners & Royals in matinee action. Ryan Rowland-Smith against Gil Meche. The Royals have absolutely owned lefties so far this season to the tune of .333. They've faced a lefty starter three times with the totals going OVER twice. That could be coincidental since both were against Detroit & Dontrelle Willis. Smith has been decent, but not great as he has allowed at least four runs in three of his four starts. Both road starts have gone OVER the posted total. KC counters with Meche and something definitely stinks in the state of Gil Meche ... and that would be Gil Meche. Meche has allowed 7 ER, 5 ER & 4 ER in his three starts this season with all flying into double digit totals. His lifetime numbers vs. SEA aren't much to indicate a turnaround is ready for today. He has a career 5.77 ERA vs. the Mariners. In his lone start vs. them in 2009, Meche allowed 7 ER in 4 IP at Safeco. Meche also has seen totals go OVER now in 9 of his last 12 starts at home. On top of that, you have the always giving Royals bullpen which sports a home ERA of 7.15 ready to throw their Napalm onto the fire if Seattle can get Meche out of the game early. The Seattle pen has been decent, bot not as effective on the road with a 4.91 ERA. There were a lot of men left on base in Games 1 & 2 of this series, let's see if the hitters don't cash in on this today. Total is set at 9.5 at most shops. I've got 9 at -120, taking the OVER.

[Wilforth]

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 28th

FASTBALL
Mariners & Royals in matinee action. Ryan Rowland-Smith against Gil Meche. The Royals have absolutely owned lefties so far this season to the tune of .333. They've faced a lefty starter three times with the totals going OVER twice. That could be coincidental since both were against Detroit & Dontrelle Willis. Smith has been decent, but not great as he has allowed at least four runs in three of his four starts. Both road starts have gone OVER the posted total. KC counters with Meche and something definitely stinks in the state of Gil Meche ... and that would be Gil Meche. Meche has allowed 7 ER, 5 ER & 4 ER in his three starts this season with all flying into double digit totals. His lifetime numbers vs. SEA aren't much to indicate a turnaround is ready for today. He has a career 5.77 ERA vs. the Mariners. In his lone start vs. them in 2009, Meche allowed 7 ER in 4 IP at Safeco. Meche also has seen totals go OVER now in 9 of his last 12 starts at home. On top of that, you have the always giving Royals bullpen which sports a home ERA of 7.15 ready to throw their Napalm onto the fire if Seattle can get Meche out of the game early. The Seattle pen has been decent, bot not as effective on the road with a 4.91 ERA. There were a lot of men left on base in Games 1 & 2 of this series, let's see if the hitters don't cash in on this today. Total is set at 9.5 at most shops. I've got 9 at -120, taking the OVER.

Meche is definitely living up to those stats.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 10-4 [+5.67]
Forkball: 8-5-2 [+2.43]
Fastball: 8-7-1 [-0.61]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 27-19-3 [+5.04]

I love it when a plan comes together.

[EaglesPhan36]

CURVEBALL
Uncle Charlie is on the clock in Toronto tonight when the Red Sox and Blue Jays go at it. Two lefties take to the hill with Jon Lester for the BoSox and Brett Cecil for the Jays. Let's start and end this with Cecil who has given up 15 runs to the Red Sox in two career starts. Boston is raking lefties to the tune of .275, .301 in their last 10. Cecil gave up 4 ER in his lone start this season against Tampa in a 6-5 Toronto win. The quicker the Sox can KO Cecil, the quicker they get into that leaky bullpen. Toronto has a 5.65 bullpen ERA so far this season. Lester has solid #s vs. TOR and is coming off his best start of the season. Three starts at Rogers Centre last season found the total hitting OVER in 2 of 3 with Lester on the mound, all due to Boston offense. One of those was a start against Cecil. If the Blue Jays can get to the Boston bullpen, they could help add some additional runs as the Red Sox pen is also sporting an ERA over 5. Jays are hitting under .200 against lefties, so not expecting a show from their offense - but they could still make Lester work and throw a lot of pitches. Lester hasn't made it past the 6th inning in any of his four starts this season. Chuck says this one has the chance to bend in for a winner. Total is set at 8.5 at -105, taking the OVER.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 10-5 [+4.62]
Forkball: 8-5-2 [+2.43]
Fastball: 8-7-1 [-0.61]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 27-20-3 [+3.99]

[EaglesPhan36]

THURSDAY, APRIL 29th

FORKBALL
The Twins and Tigers meet this afternoon with Carl Pavano going up against Dontrelle Willis. Pavano has enjoyed some good success against Detroit with a 4-1 mark in 6 career starts against them with a 3.00 ERA. Last year with Cleveland, Pavano tossed three gems at Comerica Park, allowing just 4 ER in those three starts. He's had one poor start at home against KC this season, but otherwise has been solid with 2 ER or less allowed in his other three starts - all Minnesota wins. Willis has been pretty solid in his comeback with the Tigers this season. In three starts, he has allowed more than 2 ER just once. His main issue has been control, so the Twins need patience at the plate. Minnesota can gain another road series win today, would be their 4th in 4 tries if they win. They are 4-1 vs. lefty starters in 2010. Taking the Twins to FORK the books today at -130.

[sonnybaby]

great call twins

[EaglesPhan36]

CURVEBALL
Uncle Charlie says he's got one today that will get him back on track. Going to bend a winner in on the Houston Astros team total. Set at 4. Bronson Arroyo going for the Reds today and he's been awful lately, yielding 5 ER or more in three straight starts. Some of the Houston big bats have solid numbers against Arroyo: Berkman .298 with 5 HR, Lee .342 with 10 RBI, Matsui .357, Feliz .364 & Pence at .375. The Astros have scored at least four runs in 7 of their last 10 and 6 of 8 on this current homestand. The Reds meanwhile have allowed at least 4 runs in 18 of their 21 games this season. Their bullpen being one of the main culprits with an ERA over 5, so it would be to Houston's benefit to get to Arroyo early and often. Uncle Chuck says the OVER at 4 at -115 is what to roll on this evening.

[jbizzle]

I like it! Lets Roll with this very Intellectual Play Mr. Caveman

[Wilforth]

Always a delight to read the Caveman's unique posts.

[EaglesPhan36]

Don't look good for the Astros. The few times they have gotten guys on base, they hit into DPs or had two outs and didn't do dick.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 10-6 [+3.47]
Forkball: 8-6-2 [+1.13]
Fastball: 8-7-1 [-0.61]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 27-22-3 [+1.56]

[EaglesPhan36]

FRIDAY, APRIL 30th

FASTBALL
Dead read at Dodger Stadium tonight. If I have to explain to you why to take the OVER when Charlie Morton is starting for Pittsburgh, you best get your head examined. Morton has been absolute crap, yielding 5 ER or more in all four of his starts this season. He's only made it past the 4th inning in one of those starts. Surprisingly the OVER has not always been a solid proposition though as the Pirates have not scored much in support of Morton - just five runs in four starts. Still, get him out early and you get the Pirates bullpen with their 5.88 ERA. Tonight, the Buccos will face Chad Billingsley who allowed just 1 ER in 5.1 IP against Pittsburgh earlier this season. The problem has been the efficiency of Billingsley who has not gone longer than 6 IP in any of his four starts. That means plenty of face time for the LA bullpen which has struggled with a 5.01 ERA although they have been better of late. Dodgers' hitters should light up tonight as they are hitting .330 against righties at home with the chance here to tee off on Morton, look for them to bust out of their recent scoring slump. Pirates road games have hit OVER in 9 of 13, while Dodgers home games are 5 of 7 on the OVER. Billingsley's starts have gone OVER in 3 of 4. Total is 8.5 in most books, but 5Dimes allows for 8 at -120 and that is where I'm going on this one.

FORKBALL
Twins & Indians meeting at Progressive Field this evening with Slowey battling Carmona. Seems like a good match-up for an UNDER with the posted total at 9. Slowey has a solid 3.55 career ERA against the Tribe. The last three starts vs. CLE for Slowey have all gone UNDER, including a 5-1 Twins win at home earlier this month. In the last eight meetings in Cleveland, the UNDER has hit 7 times. The Indians 6 home games in 2010 have gone UNDER in 5 of 6. Carmona has been solid this season with his sinker sinking as he has allowed 3 ER or less in each of his four starts. All but one of those finished with a total under 9. Carmona has struggled against Minnesota in the past, but did pitch a gem against them at Progressive Field in 2009 - allowing 1 ER in 6.1 IP in a 2-1 Cleveland win. Both bullpens have been solid with the Twins ERA at 2.90 and Cleveland at 3.81. Going with the UNDER at 9 for -105.

[Wilforth]

Tailed your forkball. BOL.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well hopefully that one hits. I don't take very many unders, but damn I think I might go to no unders with the way things have gone.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 10-6 [+3.47]
Forkball: 8-7-2 [+0.08]
Fastball: 8-7-2 [-0.61]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 27-23-4 [+0.51]

[EaglesPhan36]

SATURDAY, MAY 1st

FASTBALL
Diamondbacks and Cubs again in windy Wrigley Field. Wnds will be blowing out to left & left center at a steady 15 mph or so. Even without the added bonus from the wind, Arizona's games have been sailing into double digits lately with 8 of their last 10 in that area. Haren is on the hill and his games have gone OVER in 4 of 5 although none with a total this high. Still, runs find Haren's starts. His Wrigley ERA is in the 8's. Silva has been a resurrection project come good so far for the Cubs, but he has yet to work in these conditions with his new found success. The plus is that Chicago has scored runs for Silva no matter what he has done as they average 6.7 runs per start. Haren is also backed well with 6.3 runs per start. The Arizona bullpen could be the big helper here if Chicago can get to Haren. Arizona's bullpen ERA is 6,85 overall and almost 9 on the road. Chicago has the much steadier pen of the two with a home bullpen ERA of 3.31. 8 of 11 Arizona road games have gone OVER. Getting the total at 10.5 at 5Dimes for -122. High chalk, but worth a poke to me.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 10-6 [+3.47]
Forkball: 8-7-2 [+0.08]
Fastball: 9-7-2 [+0.39]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 28-23-4 [+1.51]

[EaglesPhan36]

FORKBALL
Washington Nationals team total is set at 4. Nationals are going against Volstad which could be good news for their offense. Last year in three starts vs. Washington, the Nationals scored four or more in all three games. Volstad has had all sorts of issues this season, giving up 3 runs or more in all four starts. By game's end, the opposition has put up 7 or more in three of those four starts. So the bullpen also is helping out. The Fish's pen has a 4.52 ERA. 7 of the last 10 Florida games have seen the opposing team score at least four runs. 8 of 11 at home have seen the opposition put up that number or better vs. FLA this season. Several Nationals have been impressive against Volstad, including Dunn who is 5 of 8 and Zimmerman who is 4 of 8. Total is at 4 at -120, go Nats go!