That's it I'm breakin out the dro.....
Dude I got an oz of blue dream...
Dude I got an oz of blue dream...
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So you're saying you know this system is a losing system, but you're willing to go with it because it will most likely provide profits? If that's your point then we have no problems and you need to learn how to clearly demonstrate your opinions. If not, the argument continues. Either way, you are a total tool. And ummmmmm why would I ever take that bet at 15-1? Proper odds based on my guestimate of an average -250 line in a 3 game series would be about 36-1 thanx thoughComment -
Dam 36-1
Holla at ya boy....Comment -
Phillies aint gonna be layin that on the road though....
Game3 starter is Blanton...Comment -
I said I was laying the 15 to win one.... your paying the 15 if Philly wins a game... whatever guy, you are right Im the tool... you win... why dont you check back on sept 2nd, because nowhere did I say this system is a losing system... I said it would lose 3 percent of the time... if you werent lazy and just in this to bash people, you would have read all the backtesting, and how this "losing system" has showed a profit the last 4 years...
check back in september and let the numbers finish the debate... until then, there is no point in the debateComment -
Philly will be about a -220 on game one.... if Halladay loses they will be about -180 on game two, and if Hamels loses, which is a ridiculous hypo that both lose... then game three would probably be about -150 and Blanton might not even start, he had a nagging muscle injury todayComment -
lol what does this philly bs even mean? "I'm laying 15-1" what does that mean? That makes no sense.Comment -
Stingy clearly controlled and won that debate....
Let's get Skip Bayless in here to go one-on-one with the Sting....Comment -
So their chances of winning go up as they lose yet the moneylines show the opposite? Books must be wrong-only logical explanation. I wish I could fight you. Honestly.Comment -
Dont fight it baby girl....
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Why don't you bet every game straight? Give me an answer to that.Comment -
We cant go straight stop.....
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lol... I will take skip anyday....
when you lay the odds, you are taking the favorite... I am laying 15... to win one... you are taking washington, laying 1 to win 15 if they win all three...
the 15 -1 came from what was figured about the average lay on these series.... obviously, with the -220, -180, -150 series, you are laying more than 15 -1... but all that means is the odds on you winning the bigger lay is statistically higher....
dude I been doing this a long time.... have I been a year in year out winner in life, no... but at the least, I certainly know what I am talking about...
I said in my first response to you, I understood your point, there is a considerable risk in a strategy like this, not for everybody for sure, I am willing to take that risk on this particular propositionComment -
You don't bet straight because there's no value in it. You say, however, that there is value in betting that a team won't get swept. So as a series goes on and your team loses they then have more incentive to win the next game. So why, then, in your hypothetical situation does the moneyline show that the phillies have less of a chance of winning after every game? Are the sportsbooks wrong? If so, bet on these teams after a loss in those series'(the sportsbooks aren't wrong with those lines btw).Comment -
to answer your last question.... I dont think team A has a better chance to win game two because they lost game one, that is not the bet I am making....
I am making a bet on the whole series.... if the book would just set that up as a prop bet... there would be no chase to create the bet... I would just bet that
something like.... Washington will sweep Philly... yes or no no -2000 yes +1800 I will be taking no all season longComment -
in my hypothetical, the changes in the moneyline reflected the pitching matchups not the fact that washington wins or not in the previous gameComment -
Good Point I'd say no -2000 all season long too unless it was a series without Doc and Strasburg is what we think he is.....Comment -
That being said the series sweep possibility is accounted for in the ML imo....
So it could rise higher than 15/1...Comment -
thats all we are really doing... is placing a prop bet... we are making a sequence of gradual increasing bets as the series goes on to create the prop and its odds that the books arent offering... so I dont even look at it as a chase, but merely a long odds prop bet on the series... and even better that they dont offer it, because if they did, your money would be tied up on the whole series... this way, you can actually bail on the bet at step one or two if you have a change of heart on it.... and cut your lossesComment -
yeah I said to our friend that my 15 -1 number probably was way off on that series... that assumes an average of -150 per game... that series may average -190 or so.... so we would be laying more like 20 -1 against the sweep....
the fact Philly is on the road will keep it from averaging -250.... although it will be above -200 in game one for sureComment -
"you can actually bail on the bet at step one or two if you have a change of heart on it.... and cut your losses."
In a prop bet If they lose game2 its a push at best lmfao!!!!!Comment -
the reason this has a strong chance to be profitable is this.... lets say on average we are laying potentially 20 -1 against the sweep.... and we are 3 % to lose.... so, 97 times out of 100 we win one... a total of 97 in the black.... and 3 times out of a hundred we lose 20... a total of 60 in the red.... 97 - 60 = 37 profit... or in gamblers speak, positive EV.... until those numbers change, I will be riding this systemComment -
Line is -175 and rising!!!!!!Comment -
Lmfao!!!!Comment -
what lines? you are looking at opening day lines?
oh todays spring training?Comment -
LMAO No their ST lines.....
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So you're going to bet $440 to win 200, $1152 to win 200, and then $2688 to win 200 if you play all 3 in the event of a LLW or LLL
Since sportsbooks have juice, the actual odds are different from the ones you are betting on. Dime-lines(typical for baseball) would make the actual odds in these games: -215, -175, and -145. Odds of losing all 3 games based on these odds(true odds):32%*36%*41%=4.7232%
If you lose all 3 games you lose 4280
.047232*4280=202.15296
.952768*200=190.5536
AND THERE YOU HAVE IT D-BAG...MAKE THIS BET 100 TIMES AND YOU LOSE 20,215 AND WIN 19,055.....YOU DO THE MATH CHIEFComment -
lol... oh yeah... I was thinking about Boston today... you were taking boston?Comment -
D-BAG Nice.......
illfuup might actually fuup in real life Sting.....
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got ya... good math... I understand the books keep the edge with the juice and there is no way around that... unless you dont pick a series where a sweep happens... and that is the plan chief...
good luck with flat betting dogs and favs that show value.... I dont knock what you are doing, which I know that is what it is.... I am going for a perfect season... not a 57% win rate.... and when your sample card has about 95% winners to chose from, you are much more likely to go without a loss...
that is what you fail to consider, and the point in me trying this...Comment -
illfuu,
Are you saying that I would be better off betting these games straight??????Comment -
Which again comes down to variance. It is a losing system but has a very good chance of winning over the course of the season, but you don't quite understand. In fact, you can't even call me a clever name, you just had to call me chief which I already labeled you as...good job. I'll continue to bet 1100 per game at 57% earning an average profit of $97 per game, while your average profit per 3 games is $200 in a perfect system lol. How about this cocklicker: We post our plays and how much we're betting in this thread all year and see who makes more. You in? Ready to see how much bigger my dick is than yours?Comment -
if you picked any combination of Bos, LAA, LAD, NYY, TB, CWS at home, or faded Wash, Pitt, SD, Hou, KC on the road last year between opening day and Sept 1 last season, you didnt lose.... that pretty much says it all...
could you catch losses, of course.... can you get through the season without one, yes.... and if you do the payoff is large...
that kind of closes this case for me... it is certainly worth a shot... I know how we are supposed to gamble... and I am choosing to try this for the year... sorry that it makes me stupid and that enrages some people lolComment
