Ck's 2024 mlb thread

[atthehalf]

Go OVER the total again tonight as neither of the starters have anything that they can hide now-plus Judge and Ohtani are well overdue for those bases

Dodgers/Bombers OVER 8
Dodgers (Ohtani) OVER 1.5 BASES +102
Bombers (Judge) OVER 1.5 BASES +102

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Tulane-15
Bucks-6
Rockets+6
Jets-130 ML

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Late night tweek

Clippers+4.5

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Jets-3.5 2nd half

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I made my moves already for today.

The Nets beat the Grizzlies straight up as a +12.5 underdog and must face the music now; the Nuggets are on a grueling road trip that had them play overtime games twice in a row and now face the T-Wolves a great defensive team-look for the Wolves to fall behind early and then come storming back in the 4th quarter; the Blazers won straight up as a +8.5 underdog and now face what I believe is the best team in the Western Conference. UCONN has the #1 3rd down defense in the country as well as the #50th ranked defense against the rush. With Georgia State having the #122nd ranked defense against the rush it appears that UCONN will be running the ball often and keep them off of the field for prolonged periods of time. This is a revenge game so a pairing with UCONN's ML and Georgia State's team total to go under is a viable option as well. I don't like the chalk so much as I have UCONN as a -1.5 favorite for my own spread based on in season strength of schedule.

Bulls+100 ML
T-Wolves-4
Thunder-11.5
Georgia State Team total UNDER 19.5

[atthehalf]

1-3 yesterday and I still don't know how Georgia State got over that team total.

Anyway here is what I just blasted away on at the sportsbook

12:00 Rot.#338 Miami(FL)-20.5 (5*)
12:00 Rot.#338 Duke/Miami UNDER 55
12:00 Rot.#339 Buffalo-110 ML (6*)
12:00 Rot.#347 Minnesota-145 ML (5*)
12:00 Rot.#397 Ohio State/Penn State OVER 47.5


2:30 Rot.#325 Old Dominion-150 ML (5*)
2:30 Rot.#369 Tulsa+125 ML (6*)

[atthehalf]

For the 3:30 time slot I will be looking to LIVE BET in after kickoff to be sure to get the closing line offerings so stay locked in to avoid the booby traps

[atthehalf]

So now that I have published my moves in all three places I can explain a little bit about how I arrived at my decisions

Duke is a team that has been more lucky than good to say the least and have yet to date to face a solid QB such as Cam Ward. Every statistical category with the exception of defensive havoc created is in Miami's favor-albeit the Blue Devils achieved their feat vs a much weaker strength of schedule. I went with the UNDER in that one because the Devils simply can't generate offense by the pass and Miami is #16 vs the rush and are 8th in the nation in 3rd down defensive stops. Hopefully the Devils don't turn the ball over a lot which will demolish the total.

Buffalo has all of the advantages that I look for against Akron and are ranked higher in all six categories that I look for. This game will be a very close one with Buffalo winning in the end by a field goal

Minnesota has quietly built up a good season under the radar and have advantages in 5 of the categories that I look for. Illinois like Duke has been better lucky than good and have an in season strength of schedule that is only +3.7.

Ohio State/Penn State is a battle of two teams that are looking to play their way into the CFB playoffs. Simply put, there is way too much talent on the field for them to have a low scoring game.

Old Dominion is catching Appalachian in a down year and don't expect for them to have any remorse for it either. Appalachian has a sub .500 record on a sorry ass strength of schedule and are 134th in havoc offensively and their third down defense against those weak teams is still 107th in the nation. This will be a hotly contested affair however as both teams are fighting for their chances to get to a bowl game. Gotta go with the better statistically ranked team

Tulsa is in fact in a bad let down spot-and the numbers reveal that this will also be a close game in the end. I just can't get past the fact that UAB is 132nd in the nation against the rush; 97th in defensive 3rd down stops, 131st in offensive havoc and 122 in defensive havoc. Tulsa should be able to win this game by accident

[atthehalf]

Welp...I am headed back home now-as most know this is the day of the Biggest Outdoor Cocktail party and I am having some folks over for some ribs, chicken and sirloins with a whole lot of tequila and beer for the big game! Go Gators!

[atthehalf]

Woops!

I missed one. I have been making moves on them all year long and I won't stop now

Rot.#330 Army-18.5 or -18 depending on your book

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QB Bryson Daily is OUT for Army-but Dewayne Coleman is no drop off at all

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Ok so here we go for 3:30

Oregon-14.5
Indiana-7.5
North Carolina-135 ML

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Arizona State/Okie UNDER 61.5 LIVE BET

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Pick up some

UMASS+19

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Indiana-3.5 2nd half

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Indiana hasn't even played well and are up by margin!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Late night tweek

Clippers+4.5

That's a sweet old-school photo. Believe that's World B Free.

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South Alabama-6

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That's a sweet old-school photo. Believe that's World B Free.

Correct

[atthehalf]

Louisville/Clemson UNDER 62

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Before I head out the door to Hard Rock-one of the weirdest line moves is that of the Chargers and the Browns. The browns are on my radar as a fade team this week after upsetting the Ravens as a 8.5 dog-yet the line has gone from Chargers-3 to -1 which is still a good number for them....

Are the Broncos 9.5 points worse than the Ravens with a secondary that good? I think not.

The Bengals have a major showdown with the Ravens up next-will they take the Raiders for granted with their horrible record? I am taking the POINTS.

The Cowboys have a banged up secondary-not a good thing when the Falcons throw the ball around the yard the way that they do and the Cowboys get absolutely NOTHING from their run game.

Anyway here is my card for the early stuff

Broncos+9.5
Chargers-1
Falcons-3
Raiders+7
Raiders/Bengals UNDER 45
Commanders-4

[atthehalf]

Ok so i also got me some

Raiders/Bengals UNDER 45 at the counter too

[atthehalf]

The Missus called me. FINALLY the City of Tampa came by to pick up yard debris from our front yard curbside from Hurricane Milton! I was getting tired of the front of my home looking like a war zone

[atthehalf]

NBA move I just made

Pistons+3

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That's it for now-gotta get back home and clean up the backyard from the cocktail party last night

[atthehalf]

Rams-1
Packers+2.5
Cardinals-135 ML

[atthehalf]

Seahawks 2nd half

[atthehalf]

Damn...I made a mistake posting and listed Seahawks 2nd half instead of the Rams my bad y'all we can get it back this way-With Flacco under center the Colts will put up some major points because that's all that they needed. I don't trust them too much for them to win outright

Colts/Vikings OVER 47 DOUBLE DOWN

[atthehalf]

Ok so an interception by the Colts in the end zone and 3 missed field goals? The football Gods are against me. Combine that with the defensive touchdown and the pace is correct for the full game total with 23 points off the board...

[atthehalf]

Colts+5.5 2nd half
Colts/Vikings OVER 23 2nd half

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With a 47 total there's supposed to be 55 points scored in this game per the season's games with such a line

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/odds-history/over-under/?season-filter=since_2024

[atthehalf]

NBA Rockets+2

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NFL Bucs+345 ML

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Good attempt by the Bucs-I knew that they would play them tough-and as per the usual-the late calls as always went the way of the Chiefs...the Rockets blew the Kings off of the floor as prescribed-watch out for this team-I will be on them often-gotta remember that it was the coach of the Rockets who masterminded the Celtics and not their current coach-so the Rockets are well coached and have assembled some decent talent from his draft selections

Anyway on to today

Bowling Green-14
Miami(OH)+12.5

[atthehalf]

1-1 yesterday and I still don't know how Bowling didn't cover that spread when they LIVED in the red zone pretty much all game long. this evening

Northern Illinois-135 ML DOUBLE DOWN
NBA Warriors+6
NBA Kings-11

PAY CLOSE ATTENTION FOR A THURSDAY MOVE

NBA Rot.#527 T-Wolves-6.5 5 UNITS