Ck's 2024 mlb thread

[atthehalf]

Good stuff! Only 1-0 yesterday but man was that one heck of a game! I will more than likely make some other CFB moves but this one was too god to pass up for a situational move

So far I made a move on

(CFL) Hamilton+4.5 (some books have it at +3.5 which is good too) 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

Okay this one would need a bit of write up

Houston Coogs head into this game against TCU an abysmal 1-4 and looking to be headed towards a season that may or may not end up in a bowl. The bowl is a prize. It brings money to the program. everyone likes money-that's why they call it money. To be sure their QB Donovan Smith has more picks 5 than touchdowns 2 and yes they have been shut out in their last 2 games. But let's look at the level of competition that they have faced. The teams that they have played have are 16-7 overall and of those they played Oklahoma and Iowa State and have the #26 ranked strength of schedule.

Conversely the Horned Frogs have played 4 division 1 teams with a combined record of 10-10 and a division 2 school in Long island and have the 39th ranked strength of schedule.

Simply put Houston is playing for much more than TCU-who has a big game against Utah coming up next-and they always say-victory loves preparation. Who in their right mind thinks that they are properly preparing for the Coogs?

I actually have this game much closer with TCU only a 3.5 favorite. So translated the points are at a premium and of course I grabbed them

Rot.#309 Houston+16.5

I have not bet against the UNLV Rebs yet this season. I do however see this as a situation where they are stepping up in class a bit. So this has the look of a 6 point teaser combined with Houston. A 6 point home favorite in CFB wins by an average of 11.93 points and straight up 80%

Houston+22.5/UNLV PK

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Be prepared to take Syracuse 2nd half to lock in the profits in a arbitrage way

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Nah. The AWAY+1.5 2nd half is a bad number boys-stand down

Take Syracuse/UNLV UNDER 27.5 2nd half

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MLB Playoffs

Tigers+124 Holton
Tigers+106 FOR SERIES VS GUARDIANS
Metropolitans+152 Senga
Fathers+116 Cease
Fathers+122 FOR SERIES VS DODGERS

[atthehalf]

I am not liking the EARLY CFB slate so I will be back around 3:00 or so with some moves for the 3:30 time slot

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Ok I just got some good information

Rot.#333 Wake Forest+3.5 2 UNITS

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I changed my mind-gimme

Army-14

Should be a blood bath for Tulsa trying to stop the triple option. Plus you already know what you're gonna get with them

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3:30 Miami(OH)+5.5
3:30 Bowling Green-15 to -17.5
3:30 Iowa+17.5
3:30 Virginia Tech-9 or -9.5

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4:00 West Virginia+3

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6:00 Colorado State+11

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Florida PK
Baylor+12.5

LIVE BETS

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Let's get Kansas+2 LIVE BET

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Cal+10

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Damn good day yesterday going 9-3 in NCAA FBALL!

Let's keep it going-even across the pond. Do away with the points in this one. Aaron Rodgers is down one receiver in Doubs but it won't matter. It is aways a good idea to buy when a team's stock is low and sell when a team's stock is high. You et the best of both worlds in this one game all wrapped up into one.

Jets+105 ML DOUBLE DOWN

[atthehalf]

There are some WONDERFUL tease numbers for underdogs today (notably +2.5) that cross key numbers

Raiders, Bengals, Jets, Cowboys and Colts all have this distinction; although I would be wary of the Colts with the Jags being winless and extremely hungry to get in the win column. The sportsbook opens up in about 15 minutes or so and you can look for me to grab a 6 point teaser that looks similar to this

Raiders+8.5
Bengals+8.5
Jets+8.5
Cowboys+8.5

[atthehalf]

MLB Playoffs

Severino vs Blunts 64 AB; 17K; 6BB; .234 AVG; .300 OBP; .406 SLG; .706 OPS
Sanchez vs Metropolitans 100 AB; 28K; 11BB; .230 AVG; .306 OBP; .400 SLG; .706 OPS

Numbers look eerily similar so may as well roll with the plus

Rot.#961 Metropolitans+140 Severino

Darvish vs Dodgers 244 AB; 71K; 24BB; .201 AVG; .272 OBP; .344 SLG; .617 OPS
Flaherty vs Fathers 68AB; 19K; 14BB; .279 AVG; .402 OBP; .515 SLG; .917 OPS

Rot.#963 Fathers+125 Darvish

[atthehalf]

Looking for the best price for Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 1.5 bases.

VS Flaherty he is 5-8; 3 doubles; 1 dinger; 2 walks; .625 AVG; .700 OBP; 1.375 SLG; 2.075 OPS

[atthehalf]

Rot.#454 Panthers/Bears OVER 40
Rot.#458 Texans-1
Rot.#460 Jags-3.5
Rot.#460 Colts/Jags OVER 45
Rot.#463 Browns+3
Rot.#456 Bengals+0.5 1st half

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Rot.#467 Cardinals+7

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Rot.#471 New York Football Giants+7

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Don't like the 2nd halves today so far. El Paso

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Damn Severino! Everything was smooth up until..

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Hard Rock counter boys are saying that they need the Steelers to win and the UNDER 43.5 as the joes are squarely on the other side....hmmm. Interesting

[teecee]

Hard Rock counter boys are saying that they need the Steelers to win and the UNDER 43.5 as the joes are squarely on the other side....hmmm. Interesting

I'll parlay it for funsies.

[atthehalf]

Ok lets' do it

Rot.#474 Steelers-140 ML
Rot.#474 Cowboys/Steelers UNDER 43.5

Steelers-140 ML/UNDER 43.5 2 WAY PARLAY

[atthehalf]

I'll parlay it for funsies.

As if you read my mind..

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Make no mistake about it-the straight bet is the pro's bread and butter. Without straights one cannot keep their units straight due to the probability of the parlay. that's why Don't do them too often. So keep it light and goddamn it the Metropolitans bullpen....

[atthehalf]

Pittsburg pissers...

[atthehalf]

Rot.#454 Panthers/Bears OVER 40 W

Rot.#458 Texans-1 W

Rot.#460 Jags-3.5 L
Rot.#460 Colts/Jags OVER 45 W
Rot.#463 Browns+3 L
Rot.#456 Bengals+0.5 1st half W


1:00 Giants+7 W
1:00 Cardinals+7 W


8:20 Steelers-140 ML L
8:20 Cowboys/Steelers UNDER 43.5 W
8:20 Steelers-140 ML/UNDER 43.5 2 WAY PARLAY L

[atthehalf]

Alright-no one will ever get rich by betting against the Chiefs because as i have pointed out-every time that they get close to losing some calls go their way or offensive holding doesn't get called on them but does on their opposition.

Naturally I am looking at the total

According to the chart the 43 to 43.5 are good numbers for the UNDER with 43 hitting at 75% and 43.5 hitting at 68.2% since 2023

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/odds-history/over-under/?season-filter=since_2023

So i will be looking to take the UNDER should the number close on one of those numbers

[atthehalf]

Sadly Matthew Boyd has little to no history vs the Tigers. Conversely the Tigers RL movement isn't giving the best reading today despite having Skubal on the bump. the tigers RL should go DOWN with reward, but instead they are giving MORE reward for taking it which is a bad sign. The RL started out at +145 and is now +150. Ideally it would have been nicer for the + to go down to say +135 or +130

It would have been nice to have him go on the home field where they have a pitcher's ballpark working for them

His numbers vs the Guardians are 60 AB; 14K; 3BB; .250 AVG; .286 OBP; .350 SLG; .636 OPS

Ragans vs Bombers 23AB; 9K; 4BB; .130 AVG; .259 OBP; .261 SLG; .520 OPS
Rodon vs Royals 101 AB; 32K; 8BB; .228 AVG; .284 OBP; .356 SLG; .641 OPS

Ragans has the advantages so let's go in that direction

Rot.#967 Royals+135 Ragans

[atthehalf]

IN the event that I see the RL reward go DOWN for the Tigers and the ML increase then I will get down on some Tiger

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Oh my bad y'all/ I made a move for

Saints/Chiefs UNDER 43

Live bet in if you have to if you were waiting on me!