MLB Regressing vs. Increasing Odds System

[RetardStrength]

You guys are talking about the Nats RL right...? Sorry for the dumb question

[Mackballs]

You guys are talking about the Nats RL right...? Sorry for the dumb question

Nats ml ML would need to be -146 or higher at close. The runline is automatically taken as a bet if the ML number qualifies.

TT splits up his wager half on ML half on RL. To win 0.5% on each.

Wow I'm an idiot. I was looking at yesterday line. Nats are -265 today so that will be a play.

Ignore the info above. My fault.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

Crazy line movement in that Pirates game

[Mackballs]

If Pitt qualifies (-107 or more) it will be RIOF4. Cincinnati used four pitchers last night

[drfader]

Hey guys just curious, whats the record for this system? How has it been doing?

[Mackballs]

Ok I'm confusing myself and others I think.

Pitt will be a play if it is +104 or better odds because they were -106 last night and the system now allows for a 10 cent difference.

So if a team was -135, -145 and then on the third day -136 or better it's still a play. Can someone confirm this that's more seasoned than me?

[jlani93]

Sorry guys. Yes, I am here. Will try to help the best I can.

Just a reminder...RIOF4 is not RIOF + opponents previous game > 4 pitchers used.

[Mackballs]

Sorry guys. Yes, I am here. Will try to help the best I can.

Just a reminder...RIOF4 is not RIOF + opponents previous game > 4 pitchers used.

What is RIOF 4?

[barryt]

What is RIOF 4?

Mackballs
why don't you take the time to read thru previous posts!
but read post 151 this succinctly states the system RIOF and RIOF4

and same for all newcomers read post 151 at least!

PS im in no position to take over this thread, I'm just trying to help for today or when I can.

[jlani93]

ROIF4 has extra variables that I don't know. Other variables he uses in his systems.
He was the only one who posts and confirms ROIF4 plays.

[barryt]

Ok I'm confusing myself and others I think.

Pitt will be a play if it is +104 or better odds because they were -106 last night and the system now allows for a 10 cent difference.

So if a team was -135, -145 and then on the third day -136 or better it's still a play. Can someone confirm this that's more seasoned than me?

Heres what is relevant for today as I see it
one game: Pirates last 2 games and today's opening odds 120 106 -117. So Pirates are a play and will remain a play as long as its closing line is < 106 AND it is the Fav . That means the line must be at least negative.
Its also an RIOF4 play as the Reds used 4 pitchers yesterday. Which as far as I can tell is the only other restraint see post 151

(Nationals meet the requirements for a play, but because of a typo in Diamondbacks "line" they don't come up as a play, so use your judgement there.( and why would we play any game at -265))

[RetardStrength]

Nats ml ML would need to be -146 or higher at close. The runline is automatically taken as a bet if the ML number qualifies.

TT splits up his wager half on ML half on RL. To win 0.5% on each.

Wow I'm an idiot. I was looking at yesterday line. Nats are -265 today so that will be a play.

Ignore the info above. My fault.

Sorry. That's why I asked. Nats line is worlds above (146)! Lol

[Sir-Ater]

Pirates currently at -105 (looks like a rain delay). So would still be a play, correct?

[garvardntl]

(Nationals meet the requirements for a play, but because of a typo in Diamondbacks "line" they don't come up as a play, so use your judgement there.( and why would we play any game at -265))

I would greatly appreciate some advice. I'd like to find out the win % of a team fitting RIOF parameters specifically when drop in the odds from game No. 2 to game No. 3 is so drastic... -140 or so on Wednesday, and -260, and moving towards -300, on Thursday.

Could someone teach me how to do this in SDQL? A hunch is telling me favorite should win 75% of these, or more.

[barryt]

And now we have the usual,problem with this system. PIrates /Reds has started(0-0 and a delay) and the closing line at most SBR ODDS was Pirates +103 to +107 and Reds were the the FAV. However the SDQL line was still at -105.
So I didn't play it

be interesting to see if it gets changed later on

PS yes was changed to -103
so at either -105 or -103 or +103 it wasn't a play, needed -107
good news is they lost

[barryt]

Could someone teach me how to do this in SDQL? A hunch is telling me favorite should win 75% of these, or more.[/QUOTE]

Gl with the first, and even is your hunch is right, at -265 you would need to win 73% to break even, at -300: 75%.

[kilopro]

Looks like Pirates fell off on SDQL after being a hit for RIOF and RIOF4 earlier in the day. Currently no active plays that I can see based on Killer lines/queries. Of course that may change which is a challenge for this system.

[kilopro]

Still shocking to me that TT got banned. Other threads are still going strong with people winning. Lots of other system threads also. Why TT specifically?

[Mackballs]

Not really seeing anything today.

Maybe Houston line moves up 20-30 cents?

[MJ4thQuarter92]

TT probably got banned for always talking about another site

[barryt]

Not really seeing anything today.

Maybe Houston line moves up 20-30 cents?

for what it's worth, I didn't find a play either.
Nice to have a day off

[thomaschau]

so what going on

[kilopro]

Indians popped up as a RIOF4 play. Feel free to keep tabs on that one prior to first pitch.

[Mackballs]

Do we know what the RIOF4 parameters are? Jlani said that TT uses more than just simply the other team having used four pitchers the previous game.

He explained in post 151 I believe but doesn't go into detail about additional parameters.

[kilopro]

That extra parameter for RIOF4 is not known by anyone here I believe. I'm just taking the straight RIOF query and adding the pitchers parameter. The numbers matched up as of mid-month before all the additional tweaks were made, and his additional parameter to filter out additional losses (which he didn't share).

[kilopro]

Results I'm seeing for RIOF4 so far in 2017 without those additional mystery tweaks

27-10 (1.76, 73.0%)			ROI: +23.2% / -38.3%
19-18 (0.26, 51.4%)			ROI: +18.4% / -16.8%

[barryt]

That extra parameter for RIOF4 is not known by anyone here I believe. I'm just taking the straight RIOF query and adding the pitchers parameter. The numbers matched up as of mid-month before all the additional tweaks were made, and his additional parameter to filter out additional losses (which he didn't share).

As far as I know the RIOF4 is the same as RIOF with the 4 pitcher rule. Only published tweaks were to RIOF when today's line was = to previous line .
i also now see Indians as a RIOF4 ( so we must be doing it right) line needs to be -161 and t SBR books it's -167 to -175 so I'm confident to bet it now and enjoy the evening handicapping CD.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

Yep. Looks like line movement may give us Indians to bet tonight. This system really isn't too difficult to follow. Just gotta watch those lines

[SlickRick1382]

Anyone know, able to say, or hint to where TT is now posting?

[barryt]

Yep. Looks like line movement may give us Indians to bet tonight. This system really isn't too difficult to follow. Just gotta watch those lines

Actually according to the SQDL line , the Indians closing line fell back to -160 and so entered the nebulous territory of line = Previous line. TT suggested that this should be a play, but one would think that in his original study it would not have shown up as a play. I played it but for record keeping on the system it would not be.a play. This is what makes the system difficult to play and in my April trial run, I lost money whilst the system made money.
gl
barryt

[Mackballs]

Braves, red Sox, cardinals, Marlins, Orioles, Phillies (would have to become the favorite it looks like, possible though), Rockies,.

This is what I came up with as possible plays today.

TT did say there could be days when we have 5+ plays.

Barryt, how long after the game starts is the closing line posted? I monitored the Indians like yesterday up to like the minute before first pitch and it was showing -170. I see it dropped to -160 close. Im thinking if the closing line is posted within 5 minutes of the first pitch then a hedge can be made live as long as there hasn't been any real action in the game to that point. The line should be about the same.

[barryt]

The closing line isn't posted within 5 minutes as I checked on several occasions, but then I don't check it until next am. So somewhere in between.
my quick search didn't pick up the marlins nor Rockies ( I'll recheck) and you have a typo as braves play cards

ps you had better check your query as for me marlins don't qualify and while Rockies do, their opponent, diamondbacks, dont

[Mackballs]

The closing line isn't posted within 5 minutes as I checked on several occasions, but then I don't check it until next am. So somewhere in between.
my quick search didn't pick up the marlins nor Rockies ( I'll recheck) and you have a typo as braves play cards

ps you had better check your query as for me marlins don't qualify and while Rockies do, their opponent, diamondbacks, dont

My mistake was looking at wrong dates.

Looking like Boston, Baltimore, Atlanta, and Philly at the moment with current lines.

Baltimore the only one that looks like a sure thing. Other three gonna have to monitor.

If all four quality, I believe they'd all be RIOF4 plays as well as all opposing teams used four pitchers last night. Kind of hesitant though, as we really don't know the true parameters for an RIOF4 play and we'd have four of them today potentially...

[barryt]

I think we do know the parameters for RIOF4 and thinkjlan93 post was bit of a red herring

[Mackballs]

Quite possible.

I'm rolling with RIOF4 for any of the plays that qualify