Exactly fellows!
Looks like BAL might not qualify after all. MIN and WAS look solid
Looks like BAL might not qualify after all. MIN and WAS look solid
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Comment -
BAl not a play as no book has odds of -116
Min right on the edge as books are at -109 , -110 and need -109.
ii come back at 2 pm to check MIn and MIL,COL and ARZ
i played. WASHComment -
Thanks barryt, as mentioned before I use killersports lines so if I can get my line, I'm taking it. Twins is currently at -117 (-108 yesterday) so it would take some major news to move that line. I'm pretty confident that it'll be a play.
PS,
happy BAL didn't qualify. LOLComment -
MIN got destroyed, WAS won.
Looking at CIN but depending on where their line closes, we might not have a play.Comment -
My bad, forgot to confirm that both of those plays were RIOF4's. The plays split so it won't have an impact on the numbers.
Still only see CIN as a ROIF and RIOF4 play. MIL's current line is +100 and anything under +104 is needed, so this could get tight.
I'm back from vacation so will be able to update more often and more precisely.Comment -
All NIGHT games. Lots of time for lines to change favourably. I'll check back at 6 pm or soComment -
Reds looking like a play.Comment -
Brewers stubbornly holding at +103 need +105. Game time 7:40. I'll wait til 730, no interference from hockey tonight.
adding..
now 732p and still 103 and most books trending from 103 to lower so it's a pass for me on CINCILast edited by barryt; 04-24-17, 06:34 PM.Comment -
Good call Barry. CIN was not a play. I'll update in a few hoursComment -
There was a huge typo in my last update! SORRY guys!
RIOF:
SU; 22-9, +18.12 units - avg odds: -158 should be +8.12 units
Combines units risked: 104
Combined units won: 33.19
RoI: 32%
Comment -
Updated Stats:
RIOF:
SU; 23-10, +8 units - avg odds: -156.3
RL; 16-17, +4.04 units - avg odds: +132.3
RIOF4:
SU; 19-4, +14.03 units - avg odds: -152.4
RL; 13-10, +7.30 units - avg odds: +135.5
Combines units risked: 112
Combined units won: 33.37
RoI: 29.8%
RIOF pending plays:
STL
BOS
(ARZ) line would need to move considerably!
RIOF4 pending plays:
STLComment -
Too bad I cant stay glued to lines because of work. Looking good so far though. Such is life.Comment -
It's actually just a matter of locating targets (games) and waiting until game time. Some games are nobrainers like the BOS play tonight. It would take a lot for it to not qualify, for example Porcello not starting, but you can lock him in to the bet. Not all games come down to the last minutes before first pitch.Last edited by TechnicalTrader; 04-25-17, 03:27 AM.Comment -
CArds vs Blue Jays looks extremely likely on both sides and I'm betting it now to lock in -140
Red Sox vs Yankees looks very likely on the REDSOX side of the equation , but Yankees must be at least +101 and their line opened +138 and Yanks have been bet down to the +100 to +110 range, so I'll have to wait til game time 7 pm.
ARZ/SD lines would have to move about 11 points from -146 to -157 to be a play. Not likely but possible as it's trending that way. Game time is 9 pm so lots of time.
I'll be back around 7 to update.
Gl
Barryt
its 6:30 STL definitely a play, but ARZ is not
gniteComment -
And that BOS game looks like a rainout anyway. I also already placed my STL bets.
Thanks again Barryt!Comment -
TT is right all you have to do is at game time go to Killer sports ,check the lines( both teams) and if the line fits, bet the game, if not pass.
But,life being what it is, one can't always do this. I have two time slots for betting, around noon( lunchtime for you workers) and around before 7 ( after supper). I like to determine if the plays look very likely at noon as ,in general, the lines on favourites tend to move against you as game time arrives, so one gets better( higher) odds on FAVs at noon as opposed to game time. If the lines are questionable at noon, I recheck about 6 and make a decision then. If still questionable and I have time, I'll recheck at game time.
But all that is superfluous as what counts is the game time odds. So just check at game time and bet accordingly.
gl
barrytComment -
BOS game cancelled.
jlani pointed out that LAD "almost" qualified. Their line went from -140 to -140 to-225. I ran a quick query and plays where fav's odds have gone from X <= XX < XXX and those plays performed just slightly lower than what I'm running now. In other words LAD looks like a decent play. I'm not going to play it but I def see some value there.
STL still looks like a play, both RIOF and RIOF4Comment -
Dropped both of the plays yesterday but it is what it is. I'll start updating numbers every other day or every three days. As for now, this is what we are looking at. Busy day!
RIOF:
LAA
MIL
STL
BOS
SEA (line needs to move)
RIOF4:
LAA
MIL
STLComment -
Thanks for all your work TT! This system has been very nice to combine with other systems. Very profitable so far and we're not in the hot months yet!Comment -
In case people are curious, I believe these are the closing numbers we need:
mil>-127
laa>-137
stl>-156
bos>-104
sea>-137Comment -
MIL's line has disqualified but could bounce back. This will most likely be a gametime decision...Comment -
MILW is a DAY game. Need >-120 . Killer at -120, most books -121 to -123. I will have to wait til game time to play.
STL is NIGHT but definitely will qualify so betting it now @-185
Rest are also NIGHT and right now BOS and LAA qualify but it's marginal and could change by game time .SEA and Bal don't qualify and probably won't by game time
Back later
Near 140 pm MIL still -120 at Killer and trending to -115 at pinny nd bet online. So PassLast edited by barryt; 04-26-17, 12:38 PM.Comment -
STL postponed due to rain, not letting up today ...Comment -
MIL is not a playComment -
For those who are interested, my 1st inning thread is up and running again:
I'll be back in here later to update picks.Last edited by SBR Ivy; 05-03-17, 03:12 PM.Comment -
It's getting late out here, I played LAA, BOS & SEA as RIOF bets and also added LAA & SEA as RIOF4 bets.
Now this is what pisses me off! MIL's line on killersports.com is now at -128 which qualifies it as a play. Up until about 20 minutes ago it was -120. I might just shut this down, too many moving parts...
Also noticed that LAA's line dropped back to -130, which also is disqualifies it. There is still plent of time left until first pitches but this is very, very frustrating!
I'll get in touch with killersports and find out exactly how they determine their closing lines.Comment -
Scratch that! Better solution:
by making a very simple tweak to the query, I came up with even better results and more flexibility to place bets:
rather than playing favorites with current odds which are stronger than previous odds, which were stronger than their previous odds going up the complete opposite. I will use the following variables:
1) The Favorite's previous games' odds must be stronger (numerically lower) than their second to last games' odds
2) Their opponents odds must be (numerically) larger or equal to their previous games's odds, which were (numerically) larger than that games' previous odds.
Todays plays:
current RIOF plays:
MIL (will remove this from the stats!)
LAA
BOS
SEA (Tigers line needs to be a +120 or greater dog)
BAL
current RIOF4 plays:
LAA
BAL
Good night!Comment -
At 630p, I only see BOS as a play,as even with new criteria, the dogs still have to be increasing odds.
Tbay was 140 last game:140 this game
Det was 120 last: now 116
so betting Boston RIOF.
PS LAA are on the edge and don't play til 10 pm so worthwhile checking back at that time.Comment -
TT do you know how well this does using opening lines?Comment -
The problem we are having with the lines is that the system is based on closing lines and we have to bet before the line closes and we will continue to have them as long as any comparison between today's lines and previous lines is required. It's a fact to be lived with.
Rule 2 doesn't help or I've misread it.
If this is not the first game of a series , the favourites odds are tied to the DOGs odds. So the result of your query of requiring DOGS odds to increase will only include results for those games where the FAVS odds also decreased . They are in tandem. So we have the same results and the same dilemma!
Only for the first game of a series where the odds of the previous games are independent, will the results of the new query be unique from the original system query. But we still have the dilemma of checking the dogs odds to be higher today than previous.
Really simpler. Just run a query for today's Fav with odds comparison on just the previous and penultimate games for both Dog and Fav . Don't include any requirement for today's game, except we are only interested in the Fav.
Is this still a winner or do we lose the edge?
I think the system has significant promise, but does require some waiting for last minute to bet and I,for one, can live with it. For you in Europe 5-6 hours ahead , that may be problem You may need a surrogate or a BOT. LOL
Best regards
Barryt
Comment -
LAA was a -130 closer at KillerSports, but the highest i saw at any shop at sbr odds was -138. The odds at KillerSports are not based on any of our realities.Comment -
Not that simple because the system does not take series games in to consideration. Bets don't always land on the last day of a series.
We've had two close calls out of well over 100 plays so I am not panicking. Just going to proceed. I'll also get in touch with the killersports guy and see if he can help us out rgding closing lines, etc.
Todays' pending plays:
RIOF plays:
BOS -118 needed
STL -148 needed (first game of DH)
MIL -128 needed
SEA -133 needed (highly doubt it will qualify)
LAA -147 needed
BAL -145 needed
RIOF4 plays:
Will post later
Yesterdays' results:
RIOF:
MIL RL won (will not count this one)
MIL SU won (will not count this one
BOS RL loss
BOS SU loss
LAA RL won
LAA SU won
RIOF4:
MIL RL won (will not count this one)
MIL SU won (will not count this one
SEA RL won
SEA SU won
LAA RL won
LAA SU wonComment
