***** Totals and Sides *****
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RainemakerSBR High Roller
- 12-06-12
- 138
#141Comment -
doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#144Good afternoon,
All my years handicapping I have always tried to find an edge that bookmakers have missed. For example, in baseball the starting pitcher used to be a greater factor in determining the line than it is now. Of course, "back in the day", starters would go 8 or 9 innings, now they're lucky to go 6 innings. So as the years went on, I would start to figure the bullpen stats more and more into my handicapping. I still feel to this day, the bookmakers make their line based mostly on the starters, which brings me to my point. Though I look at many different factors in determining a total, I have seen a trend this year based on relievers. I look at the last 3 days and see how rested the middle relievers and closers are. When I see they are not rested and look at no other factors, over 58% of the games have gone over so far this year. I wish I had just given out just those games, but when I factor in other data, it has taken me off many of those games.
Therefore, JUST FOR TRACKING PURPOSES, I will give out the games that are based solely on the relievers.
THESE ARE NOT OFFICIAL PLAYS!!!! I am not sure this trend will continue but I think it's worth listing. If it starts going south I will stop posting them. I am only going to calculate win/loss not units. Too much time to do that.
Of course some of these will also be my "official" plays.
The Reliever Plays for Wednesday are:
AZ/Miami over 7.5
Philly/SL over 7.5
TX/Tor over 8.5
Min/Hou over 8.5
Bos/WS under 8 -105
LAD/TB under 7.5
Good luckLast edited by doubledime; 05-04-16, 04:32 PM.Comment -
doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#145Good afternoon,
Wednesday's Play:
AZ/Miami over 7.5 - even (I bought the half point to -135 for 1/2 my play, but officially were going with 7.5)
Good luckComment -
doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#146One more thing........
I know this sounds fishy, but SF/Cin, Cubs/Pit and LAA/Milw were all over plays earlier today. They all won. Of course I am not counting them, but if you don't believe me, all you have to do is check the last 3 days of how much the relievers were worked and you will see they were not rested at all. I track pitch count, innings pitched and ERA on middle relievers and closers. I did not play them since there were other factors going against the over, but they still went over.
good luckLast edited by doubledime; 05-04-16, 04:33 PM.Comment -
doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#147Added
Bost/WS under 8
As a reliever playComment -
DU46SBR Sharp
- 10-09-09
- 368
#148Just to confirm the Bos game is not an official play, correct?Comment -
RainemakerSBR High Roller
- 12-06-12
- 138
#149I think he made it official DU..Comment -
DU46SBR Sharp
- 10-09-09
- 368
#151Thanks DD, let's get this AZ game!Comment -
doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#152Good morning,
0-1 Yesterday
Unfortunately could not get one run the last 4 innings so we move on.
No play on the early game, back later with tonight's card.
Good luckComment -
doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#153Good morning,
The "Relievers" Plays go 3-3 yesterday
Remember these are plays based strictly on the usage of relievers over the last 3 days. Many of these will have conflicting data against them, but even with this conflicting data, I have found, at least for this season, playing them would be profitable. I suggest you DON'T play them blindly for now, but use the info for your own handicapping.
Thursday's Reliever Plays:
Philly/St. L over 6.5
Mil/Cinci over 9
Wash/Cubs over ? The total is not yet posted
Det/Cle under 8.5
NYY/Balt under 7.5
TX/Tor over 8.5
Seat/Hou over 8.5
Bos/WS under 9
Good luckComment -
doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#154Good afternoon,
Thursday's Play:
Mil/Reds over 9 even
Good luckComment -
7777KaLSBR Sharp
- 04-13-16
- 383
#155Good morning,
The "Relievers" Plays go 3-3 yesterday
Remember these are plays based strictly on the usage of relievers over the last 3 days. Many of these will have conflicting data against them, but even with this conflicting data, I have found, at least for this season, playing them would be profitable. I suggest you DON'T play them blindly for now, but use the info for your own handicapping.
Thursday's Reliever Plays:
Philly/St. L over 6.5
Mil/Cinci over 9
Wash/Cubs over ? The total is not yet posted
Det/Cle under 8.5
NYY/Balt under 7.5
TX/Tor over 8.5
Seat/Hou over 8.5
Bos/WS under 9
Good luckComment -
doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#157Comment -
doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#158Good morning,
Nothing on the early game.
Back later with the night card.
Good luckComment -
doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#159Good afternoon,
This will be the "Reliever" plays update.
Yesterday: 4-3-1
YTD: 7-6-1
There are a lot of plays today so I want to repeat....... These plays are based solely on the amount of rest, or lack of it, the relievers have. NO other factors are figured in, so I am not suggesting to play these blindly, but if you want, use them as a handicapping tool.
Friday's Reliever Plays:
Phil/Miami over 7
Mil/Reds over 9
Pit/St. L over 7
Col/SF over 7
TX/Det over 8
KC/Clev over 7
Min/WS over 9
Sea/Hou over 9
Back later with the official plays for Friday.
Good luck
YTSComment -
doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#160Good afternoon,
Friday's Plays:
Phil/Miami over 7 even
Mil/Reds over 9 even
Min/WS over 9 -120
Good luckComment -
RainemakerSBR High Roller
- 12-06-12
- 138
#163Holy crap DD. You ever think about playing these 2nd half? There are a lotof solid starters throwing today. I actually am on the Grand Salami Under. I sent you a PM yesterday did you get it?Comment -
RollinDoSBR Posting Legend
- 09-04-13
- 13322
#164That may be tough to get with a 14-run game already that was a total of 7.5/8.Comment -
RainemakerSBR High Roller
- 12-06-12
- 138
#16514 runs I can handle. 23 in the giants rockies yest I can't : )Comment -
doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#167Good morning,
Regular Plays:
Yesterday: 2-1
YTD: 14-15 -2.70 units
Reliever Plays:
Yesterday: 4-3-1
YTD: 11-9-2
Back later with today's plays
Good luckComment -
doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#168Good morning,
No afternoon plays
Back later with the evening card
Good luckComment -
doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#171Good morning,
Here are the Reliever Plays for the Saturday:
Pit/St. L over 8.5
Mil/Cinci over 9
Phili/Miami over 8.5
Sea/Hou over 8.5
Min/WS over 7
TB/LAA over 8
LAD/Tor under 8.5
Good luckComment -
doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#172Good morning,
I know in an earlier post I said no afternoon plays but upon further review we do have an afternoon play.
Saturday's Play:
Pit/St. L over 8.5
We have trends, weather, umpire, and relievers all going our way. Plus I capped it at 9.4 runs.
Good luckComment -
hit_me90SBR Wise Guy
- 02-18-16
- 618
#173my pitt line went to 9, would you still play it? i guess it still makes sense i would just tie if it falls on 9, can pls tell me why the dodger game is in red and Pitt is in blue, thanks a lotComment -
hit_me90SBR Wise Guy
- 02-18-16
- 618
#174line dropped back to 8.5Comment -
doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#175
Since most of the plays are overs, when I have an under I just want to highlight it in red so people notice it. That is, if I remember to do that.Comment
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