New Baseball Power Rating System

[Formulawiz]

I spoke with sportrends last night and they indicated if this bashing continues in our our college and pro football and basketball thread they will pull these systems off their site.

[ArminMD]

overall record (both agree): 3-3 -0.16 units (depending on the line you got)
pitcher pr only: 1-0 +0.51

will post todays picks shortly...

Ck
its like using power ratings in bb... I dont know how they actually calculate the pr for baseball... But as long as it is free and if we can make money with it why not use it (btw the bb power ratings were pretty good last season)... I will track it... I think we will see how it goes until mid may, but as the whole power rating stuff needs a lot of data it should get better with time...we will see

gl and have a great trip

+1 ...

[ShivaBowl]

Yesterdays 08/16/10 ML plays based on early lines
BAL WIN
ATL WIN
Mets WIN
TAM WIN
DET WIN

[barts185]

Formulawiz,

I haven't even looked at this thread in a while until a couple of days ago.

I am a paying customer of Sam's, but can't get him to return a phone call, or answer an e-mail.

Other than starting to complain all over the net, a lot, about poor customer service that they give to a paying customer, looking for suggestions as to how you think I should proceed in terms of trying to get Sam to return any of my efforts to contact him.

Thanks,
Bart

[Formulawiz]

Formulawiz,

I haven't even looked at this thread in a while until a couple of days ago.

I am a paying customer of Sam's, but can't get him to return a phone call, or answer an e-mail.

Other than starting to complain all over the net, a lot, about poor customer service that they give to a paying customer, looking for suggestions as to how you think I should proceed in terms of trying to get Sam to return any of my efforts to contact him.

Thanks,
Bart

I would send him an email he always answers.

[barts185]

He just contacted me. Thanks.

[bobby29]

Formulawiz,

I haven't even looked at this thread in a while until a couple of days ago.

I am a paying customer of Sam's, but can't get him to return a phone call, or answer an e-mail.

Other than starting to complain all over the net, a lot, about poor customer service that they give to a paying customer, looking for suggestions as to how you think I should proceed in terms of trying to get Sam to return any of my efforts to contact him.

Thanks,
Bart

Hello Bart

[HoulihansTX]

This message is hidden because bobby29 is on your ignore list.

BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

When using our BPR System in any given matchup, a play on the home team is generated when the value is under 1, indicating the home teams bullpen will be expected to give up less runs then their opponents bullpen. A play on the road team is warranted when the value of home team is over 1, indicating the home teams bullpen will be expected to give up more runs.


San Diego
Boston
Kansas City
Mets
Milwaukee

As usual make sure win/loss streaks are filtered, and the ML doesnt exceed -175.

[barts185]

This message is hidden because bobby29 is on yougnore list.
r i
BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

When using our BPR System in any given matchup, a play on the home team is generated when the value is under 1, indicating the home teams bullpen will be expected to give up less runs then their opponents bullpen. A play on the road team is warranted when the value of home team is over 1, indicating the home teams bullpen will be expected to give up more runs.


San Diego
Boston
Kansas City
Mets
Milwaukee

As usual make sure win/loss streaks are filtered, and the ML doesnt exceed -175.

FWIW, if this is anything like the incorrect wording that initially appeared on some of the other systems,

a play on the home team is generated when the value is under 1

should really read

a play on the home team is generated when the value is -1 or lower.


I have no idea if it is actually misworded or not (maybe someone could check), but this is how the others eventually wound up being worded.

In other words,

-1.00 and lower is a play on the home team

-0.99 to +0.99 is a no play zone.

+1.00 and higher is a play on the road team.



Maybe this is the exception, and it really does mean under +1.00, but I would get some sort of answer before doing anything with the Bull Pen system.

Good Luck,
Bart

[Formulawiz]

FWIW, if this is anything like the incorrect wording that initially appeared on some of the other systems,

a play on the home team is generated when the value is under 1

should really read

a play on the home team is generated when the value is -1 or lower.


I have no idea if it is actually misworded or not (maybe someone could check), but this is how the others eventually wound up being worded.

In other words,

-1.00 and lower is a play on the home team

-0.99 to +0.99 is a no play zone.

+1.00 and higher is a play on the road team.



Maybe this is the exception, and it really does mean under +1.00, but I would get some sort of answer before doing anything with the Bull Pen system.

Good Luck,
Bart

This is the way I read the filters. By the way do you or anyone else have any idea as how this system was performing or what filters we should apply.

[HoulihansTX]

Yes Bart, you are correct.

Do you agree with the plays?

[barts185]

Yes Bart, you are correct.

Do you agree with the plays?

Yes, the play list looks correct.

Good Luck,
Bart

[EXhoosier10]

Anyone know if they are going to start updating the ML system again?

[HoulihansTX]

BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

San Diego (-115) W
Boston (-140) W
Kansas City (-160) W
Mets (-160) L
Milwaukee (+170) W


As usual make sure win/loss streaks are filtered, and the ML doesnt exceed -175.

Nice first day of tracking the system. Dog came through also.

8/17 (4-1) +3.1Units

[ShivaBowl]

Team Projected Runs for 8/18/2010

BOS 1.6

Comp 08/18
Take Boston W/Lackey over LA Angels W/Kazmir NO PLAY if < -155 or > -175
Comp Since A.S. break,18-6
TPR Since A.S. break , 45-34

[HoulihansTX]

BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

Milwaukee
San Diego
Florida
Colorado
Cincy
Kansas City
Mets
Boston
Seattle
NYY

As usual make sure win/loss streaks are filtered, and the ML doesnt exceed -175.

[Formulawiz]

Anyone going to post the TPR system?
Ill post them for today

TOR
BOS < -175

Peter emailed and told me he does not care if a pitcher has pitched a 20 game minimum. I am waiting for a reply whether he only played dogs, but I dont think he did.

[ShivaBowl]

Anyone going to post the TPR system? Ill post them for today TOR BOS < -175 Peter emailed and told me he does not care if a pitcher has pitched a 20 game minimum. I am waiting for a reply whether he only played dogs, but I dont think he did.

I already posted the TPR System.
Wiz take me off your ignore list. Tks


[quote=ShivaBowl;5962239]Team Projected Runs for 8/18/2010
BOS 1.6
Comp 08/18
Take Boston W/Lackey over LA Angels W/Kazmir NO PLAY if < -155 or > -175
Comp Since A.S. break,18-6
TPR Since A.S. break , 45-34

[ShivaBowl]

Are we changing the rules again? tks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Formulawiz
Anyone going to post the TPR system? Ill post them for today TOR BOS < -175 Peter emailed and told me he does not care if a pitcher has pitched a 20 game minimum. I am waiting for a reply whether he only played dogs, but I dont think he did.

Originally Posted by ShivaBowl
WIZ so we have a play on the pitcher, that has pitched at least 20 innings.
With the M/L System, The New System and TPR.
Try to play dogs only.

WIZ
Thats correct.

[ShivaBowl]

All these Systems are up on sportrends.
Major League Baseball: Pitching and Team H/A Power Ratings for 8/18/2010
Major League Baseball: Bullpen Projected Runs for 8/18/2010
Major League Baseball: Team Projected Runs for 8/18/2010

M/L and S/A are down has anyone called in to ST to see whats going on? Bart?
Tks

[barts185]

All these Systems are up on sportrends.
Major League Baseball: Pitching and Team H/A Power Ratings for 8/18/2010
Major League Baseball: Bullpen Projected Runs for 8/18/2010
Major League Baseball: Team Projected Runs for 8/18/2010

M/L and S/A are down has anyone called in to ST to see whats going on? Bart?
Tks

Bart?

I'm not getting back involved in this thread (as far as I know, I still have an official get lost invitation). I'm sorry I got involved to begin with - others must have better luck getting in touch with Sam to see what he plans on doing, my impression is that the ML and SA systems are gone.

Good Luck,
Bart

[Formulawiz]

[quote=ShivaBowl;5965575]I already posted the TPR System.
Wiz take me off your ignore list. Tks

Team Projected Runs for 8/18/2010
BOS 1.6
Comp 08/18
Take Boston W/Lackey over LA Angels W/Kazmir NO PLAY if < -155 or > -175
Comp Since A.S. break,18-6
TPR Since A.S. break , 45-34

How did you get on my ignore list. I dont know how to get to it. Can you walk me through.

[Formulawiz]

Peter just emailed me about the filters he used all last season and part of this season until he got sick. He had very good success using the TPR system and these filters.

He uses all the same filters we use for the other systems. He still plays fav up to -175 and DOGS up to +140. I think we should continue to follow these filters. If anyone can find any reason not to, give your explanation.

[Formulawiz]

Are we changing the rules again? tks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Formulawiz
Anyone going to post the TPR system? Ill post them for today TOR BOS < -175 Peter emailed and told me he does not care if a pitcher has pitched a 20 game minimum. I am waiting for a reply whether he only played dogs, but I dont think he did.

Originally Posted by ShivaBowl
WIZ so we have a play on the pitcher, that has pitched at least 20 innings.
With the M/L System, The New System and TPR.
Try to play dogs only.

WIZ
Thats correct.

Shiva, I did not follow the TPR system that closely, Peter took care of it. Since we only have the TPR and Bullpen systems now, I decided to contact Peter to see the filters he used. If we agree with the new filters thats fine if not thats fine too. I personally will use Peter's recommendations unless someone has some concrete evidence to the contrary.

[HoulihansTX]

BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

Milwaukee (+245) W
San Diego (-140) W
Florida (-170) W
Colorado (+125) W
Cincy (-125) W
Kansas City (-105) W
Mets (+100)W
Boston (-175) W
Seattle (+135) W
NYY (-175) W

As usual make sure win/loss streaks are filtered, and the ML doesnt exceed -175.

8/18 (10-0) +12.05Units

[HoulihansTX]

Umm the BPR system is... awesome.

[HoulihansTX]

8/19

BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

When using our BPR System in any given matchup, a play on the home team is generated when the value is under 1, indicating the home teams bullpen will be expected to give up less runs then their opponents bullpen. A play on the road team is warranted when the value of home team is over 1, indicating the home teams bullpen will be expected to give up more runs.

NYY
Padres
Florida
Mets
Kansas City
Minny
Colorado

As usual make sure win/loss streaks are filtered, and the ML doesnt exceed -175.

[HoulihansTX]

Two days of tracking the BPR

(14-1) +15.15Units

[ShivaBowl]

Team Projected Runs for 8/19/2010
BOS 1.7

Take Minnesota W/Pavano over Chi W Sox W/Buehrle NO PLAY if < -155 or > -175
Comp Since A.S. break,19-6
TPR Since A.S. break , 46-34

[ShivaBowl]

Two days of tracking the BPR (14-1) +15.15Units

That`s just unbelievable.
Good Work.

[ShivaBowl]

8/19 BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs When using our BPR System in any given matchup, a play on the home team is generated when the value is under 1, indicating the home teams bullpen will be expected to give up less runs then their opponents bullpen. A play on the road team is warranted when the value of home team is over 1, indicating the home teams bullpen will be expected to give up more runs. NYY Padres Florida Mets Kansas City Minny Colorado As usual make sure win/loss streaks are filtered, and the ML doesnt exceed -175.

TX; are using IP along with your filters?
BPR, COL is a stronger play then Minn,
Are you using the value numbers to measure, your plays. ?
Thanks

[HoulihansTX]

TX; are using IP along with your filters? BPR, COL is a stronger play then Minn, Are you using the value numbers to measure, your plays. ? Thanks

I'm just going with their numbers. Its either a play, or not a play. Besides the plays are not determined upon starting pitching, so (IP) is not a factor.

No I'm not making one play a stronger play than the other. I taking a simplistic approach, on a simple system.

[ShivaBowl]

Pitching and Team H/A Power Rating Plays for 8/19/2010
CIN 773
LAD 418
ATL 374
MIN 329
OAK 174
PHI 136
FLA 128


IP/, W/L , > -175,
Filter H/A-TP-DIF > 100
Filter, No Negative H/A-PP-DIF # On Pitcher

OAK W/2 TB W/5

[ShivaBowl]

I'm just going with their numbers. Its either a play, or not a play. Besides the plays are not determined upon starting pitching, so (IP) is not a factor. No I'm not making one play a stronger play than the other. I taking a simplistic approach, on a simple system.

OK TX; thanks for keeping it simple,
I will look up the value numbers myself.

I know the BPR System is on the bullpen, but don't you need > +20 on the starting pitcher?
EX; Mets, are going to bet on the Mets with Misch because its a BPR play?
Im just trying to keep it simplistic, for all are simple systems.

THANKS

[Odessa]

8/19

BPR - Bullpen Projected Runs

As usual make sure win/loss streaks are filtered.

How we make filtering process working?