New Baseball Power Rating System

[TonyP]

Lilly has over 10 starts this season. Trust me its a typo.

yes he has pitched 97

[barts185]

Lilly has over 10 starts this season. Trust me its a typo.

Can't believe I'm responding, but while it might be a typo, it could easily be a typo that would be fixed by adding one word, instead of changing the team on which he says to play. This makes sense given that according to prior posts, you always look at the favorite.

So, I submit the following possible fix to the supposed typo


Take Philly W/Blanton over Chi Cubs W/Lilly NO PLAY if < -120 or > -175

becomes

Take Philly W/Blanton over Chi Cubs W/Lilly NO PLAY if CUBS < -120 or > -175


Judge for yourself, not saying I'm right, just that it's possible.


And, again, if prior posts are correct, its not even a typo since you always look at the favorite.


Anyway, good luck.

[TonyP]

does Baltimore fit the criteria

[TonyP]

It looks like the Twins fit the criteria tell me if I am reading it correctly

[TonyP]

It looks like the Twins fit the criteria tell me if I am reading it correctly

never mind I see teh CWS are on a 9 game win streak and never bet against a team that is on a 2 game win streak

[HoulihansTX]

TonyP, you are thinking out loud.

Just wait a while, and Shiva/formulawiz will post the plays.

[EXhoosier10]

Are the cubs a play for the ML at a line of -120? If i use favorites from the proj. ML colum, the Phillies are -105 and 25 cent move would be to Phi -130 or to Phi +120. If the line stays at Phi +110, does that mean no play for the ML system?

Or should I use the Actual favorite's line and go 25 cents from that? So since the cubs are the real favorites in vegas, their projected ML is +105 and 25 cents off of that is +130 (makes the play on Phi) or -120 (makes the play on ChC).

So to sum up my question, when trying to make a play, do I look at the actual favorite's proj. ML and go 25 cents off of that to make the play, or do I go 25 cents off of the favorite from the projected ML column?

[Formulawiz]

I spoke to Sam at sportrends and they did screw up. It should have been CHC

[barts185]

Your 100% correct and of course you compare the proj line whatever team is the fav to the act money line and then perform the value test.

I just want to make sure this is clear.


I take the projected line from which ever team is the favorite on the projected line.


In this case, that means PHI -105, since the proj line was CUB +105.


I then compare that to the actual line, which for PHI was +116 (the actual SBR average was +115.7, if you took RX, it comes out to +115, if you took covers it comes out to +114).


I then peform the value test, and compare the -105 to the +116/+115/+114 which in this case means that there was only a 21 cent difference (at most) and so there was no play on this game.


So please confirm that this is correct and that there was no play on the ML system on the CUBS.

Thanks,
Bart

[Joe Dogs]

Can anyone confirm these SA plays

St. Louis Cards
Padres
N.Y.Mets
Texas
Oakland
Brew Crew <-175

[madness]

Barts,

I believe since cubs where projected to be +105 and the ML was -128ish that is a 33cent difference which would qualify as a ML play (pending other filters).

[barts185]

Barts,

I believe since cubs where projected to be +105 and the ML was -128ish that is a 33cent difference which would qualify as a ML play (pending other filters).

I would have agreed up until I got the answer which I quoted.


Just trying to make sure we all are on the same page / able to know what the games are beforehand going forward.


Take Care,
Bart

[EXhoosier10]

Are the cubs a play for the ML at a line of -120? If i use favorites from the proj. ML colum, the Phillies are -105 and 25 cent move would be to Phi -130 or to Phi +120. If the line stays at Phi +110, does that mean no play for the ML system?

Or should I use the Actual favorite's line and go 25 cents from that? So since the cubs are the real favorites in vegas, their projected ML is +105 and 25 cents off of that is +130 (makes the play on Phi) or -120 (makes the play on ChC).

So to sum up my question, when trying to make a play, do I look at the actual favorite's proj. ML and go 25 cents off of that to make the play, or do I go 25 cents off of the favorite from the projected ML column?

I just want to make sure this is clear.


I take the projected line from which ever team is the favorite on the projected line.


In this case, that means PHI -105, since the proj line was CUB +105.


I then compare that to the actual line, which for PHI was +116 (the actual SBR average was +115.7, if you took RX, it comes out to +115, if you took covers it comes out to +114).


I then peform the value test, and compare the -105 to the +116/+115/+114 which in this case means that there was only a 21 cent difference (at most) and so there was no play on this game.


So please confirm that this is correct and that there was no play on the ML system on the CUBS.

Thanks,
Bart

Barts,

I believe since cubs where projected to be +105 and the ML was -128ish that is a 33cent difference which would qualify as a ML play (pending other filters).

Example of ML system:
Team A is AWAY
Team B is HOME
Projected ML is TEAM B +115
actual line is Team A +100 and Team B -110.
What is the play? Do I take the home team's projected ML (they are the actual favorite) and take the 25 cent difference and get a play on team B? OR Do I take the favorite of the projected ML (Team A is projected at -115) and then take the 25 cent difference and come to the conclusion that there is no play for the ML system?

What if...
Team C is AWAY
Team D is HOME
Projected ML is TEAM D +120
actual line is Team C -105 and Team D -105.
What is the play?

Formula, I'm mostly asking for your help, but if anyone can shed some light on this situation, that would be great.

A good example of this situation is ChC/Phi game or the Hou/Pit game. Can you let me know which of these are official plays?

[madness]

I just want to make sure this is clear.


I take the projected line from which ever team is the favorite on the projected line.


In this case, that means PHI -105, since the proj line was CUB +105.


I then compare that to the actual line, which for PHI was +116 (the actual SBR average was +115.7, if you took RX, it comes out to +115, if you took covers it comes out to +114).


I then peform the value test, and compare the -105 to the +116/+115/+114 which in this case means that there was only a 21 cent difference (at most) and so there was no play on this game.


So please confirm that this is correct and that there was no play on the ML system on the CUBS.

Thanks,
Bart

Barts,

The money line system simply projects the money line for the game. Sportrends lists the predicted money line next to the home team only, so if its a +number that means the road team is favored. The play can be on the favorite or the dog depending on which side is off by the required 25 cents. I still think you are having confusion with the manner in which sportrends posts their lines as well as the quote referenced above. If the home team is listed at +120 projected ML (meaning the visitor is a -120 favorite)and the actual line has the home team -160. The play is on the home team as its well over the 25 cent requirement (even though the away team is the projected favorite). outside of the other filters there really is nothing more to it. I apologize if this is repetitive as its meant to be helpful.

[EXhoosier10]

Barts,

The money line system simply projects the money line for the game. Sportrends lists the predicted money line next to the home team only, so if its a +number that means the road team is favored. The play can be on the favorite or the dog depending on which side is off by the required 25 cents. I still think you are having confusion with the manner in which sportrends posts their lines as well as the quote referenced above. If the home team is listed at +120 projected ML (meaning the visitor is a -120 favorite)and the actual line has the home team -160. The play is on the home team as its well over the 25 cent requirement (even though the away team is the projected favorite). outside of the other filters there really is nothing more to it. I apologize if this is repetitive as its meant to be helpful.

mad, there is some confusion as to whether or not the 25 cent difference is to be based off of the favorite from the projected money line,
or the favorite based on the actual, vegas moneyline.
For example, Team A proj line is -115. Team B Proj line is 115. Actual moneyline is Team A +100 and Team B -110. If you take 25 cents from the Proj Line's favorite, -115+100 = 15 cent movement. So no play. But if you take the 25 cent movement based on the actual favorite, thats a 115-(-110) and you get your 25 cent movement, a play would be on Team B. So if you base the movement from the actual favorite, you can get a play while basing it on the projected line's favorite, you might not get a play. I guess bart and I are looking for which is the base # (Home team Proj, Home team Actual, Fav Proj, Fav, Actual, Road Proj, Etc...). Depending on which number you're looking at every game, some people might get a play, and others may not.

[barts185]

Barts,

The money line system simply projects the money line for the game. Sportrends lists the predicted money line next to the home team only, so if its a +number that means the road team is favored. The play can be on the favorite or the dog depending on which side is off by the required 25 cents. I still think you are having confusion with the manner in which sportrends posts their lines as well as the quote referenced above. If the home team is listed at +120 projected ML (meaning the visitor is a -120 favorite)and the actual line has the home team -160. The play is on the home team as its well over the 25 cent requirement (even though the away team is the projected favorite). outside of the other filters there really is nothing more to it. I apologize if this is repetitive as its meant to be helpful.

I can appreciate you trying to be helpful. I really can.

I would ask that you simply go through the thread and see where I asked for examples, and where there have been games which contradict how the rules are applied. In order to prevent this going forward, just trying to get simple answers.

I was very careful to quote the ONLY time in this whole thread where Forumlawiz actually specified how to do it. If that is now NOT the way to do it, hopefully it will show how inconsistently the rules are being applied.


Take Care,
Bart

[ShivaBowl]

Can anyone confirm these SA plays St. Louis Cards Padres N.Y.Mets Texas Oakland Brew Crew <-175

Scientific Approach (SA)
07/16/10

Hey Joe, I don't have good lines and I did not double check all, I come up with,

HOU, MIL, STL, SDP, TEX, OAK

WAS Lost 2 n/p Win
Mets but SF won 3 n/p Loss
TOR but BAL won 4 n/p WIn
Nice Night
6-0
Good Work Joe
Your spot on SA
BOL
MIL <-175 Mil was the dog <-175 does not apply.
TPR 1-2 yesterday plays later today around 12PM

[ShivaBowl]

I wish sportrends would get off ARI, there killing them, this year.

[Formulawiz]

ML went 2-2 yesterday. Here were the plays. I will post them this time to clear up confusion

CUBS, ARI, DET, TEX

As fars as the new system

5-1, HOU, COL, STL, SD, TEX, OAK

These are the plays you should have for both systems yesterday.

[ShivaBowl]

Wiz, why not MIL?
COL? Cin porj-1.00 book line Cinn -120 how did you come up with COL and way not MIL?
thanks, bol

SA System

[barts185]

Okay, I'll try it this way:


I'll give 50 points to the first person who can produce the list of games for the ML and new system since the start of July (there's an all-star break in there so we're only talking about 2 weeks worth of games), showing how the proj ML relates to the actual ML making each game a play.


You can either PM me, or post the list here. In the case of multiple entries, I'll go by the timestamp on either the post, or the PM to determine the winner.

[madness]

Wiz, why not MIL?
COL? Cin porj-1.00 book line Cinn -120 how did you come up with COL and way not MIL?
thanks, bol

SA System

I also played Milwaukee and didnt have colorado

[HoulihansTX]

The ML system is great but seems flawed in principle to me. It makes its own line, but then identifies plays by line movements that are contradictory from their projected line.

Now the new system is much more practical as they have projected lines that are used as the fair line for the game. And in a logical way as the actual line deviates from their fair line, their fair line is used a the true indicator of a value play.

What I'm saying is that the new system looks to be a much better indicator of what a play should be. Does anyone else agree?

Thanks

[madness]

mad, there is some confusion as to whether or not the 25 cent difference is to be based off of the favorite from the projected money line,
or the favorite based on the actual, vegas moneyline.
For example, Team A proj line is -115. Team B Proj line is 115. Actual moneyline is Team A +100 and Team B -110. If you take 25 cents from the Proj Line's favorite, -115+100 = 15 cent movement. So no play. But if you take the 25 cent movement based on the actual favorite, thats a 115-(-110) and you get your 25 cent movement, a play would be on Team B. So if you base the movement from the actual favorite, you can get a play while basing it on the projected line's favorite, you might not get a play. I guess bart and I are looking for which is the base # (Home team Proj, Home team Actual, Fav Proj, Fav, Actual, Road Proj, Etc...). Depending on which number you're looking at every game, some people might get a play, and others may not.

Hoosier, your example for how you derived the play for team B looks correct to me. As long as you figure what the starting projected line is for both teams +115 and -115, i am not seeing how you can come up with different plays (outside of filters). If the real game line is away team -175 and home team +165 then only 1 of the teams is laying 25 cents worse than the projected line (money line system) and the other is getting more than 25 cent better value, so we should have the same team. I feel bad that i cant commit to being in the thread regularly to post daily, but i am trying to chime in as i know its frustrating to not get responses.

[madness]

The ML system is great but seems flawed in principle to me. It makes its own line, but then identifies plays by line movements that are contradictory from their projected line.

Now the new system is much more practical as they have projected lines that are used as the fair line for the game. And in a logical way as the actual line deviates from their fair line, their fair line is used a the true indicator of a value play.

What I'm saying is that the new system looks to be a much better indicator of what a play should be. Does anyone else agree?

Thanks

I agree as its easier putting in plays where you know you are getting good value (and not only favorites). But i must say the ml system seems to be profitable especially going back to last year, so it still should be considered. If the money line projects a game at -115 and the actual line is -150, i just say to myself that the oddsmakers priced it at -150 for a reason. But overall, i agree and am hoping the new system shows to be a good long term option as it definitely has been on a nice swing short term

[Formulawiz]

ML plays today based on early lines

STL, NYY, MIN, TEX

[Formulawiz]

Wiz, why not MIL?
COL? Cin porj-1.00 book line Cinn -120 how did you come up with COL and way not MIL?
thanks, bol

SA System

Your correct. I must have missed it when I saw the -180 and that was a nice win.

[ShivaBowl]

I had MIL becuse you updated me 7-15 on the same play.Thanks Wiz.
TPR plays today based on early lines
DET, in 2nd if wins 1st, TOR, BOS, LAA if <-175
BOS lost 2 but this has been a good n/p winner.

Sportrends Comp,

Take St Louis W/Wainwright over LA Dodgers W/Kuroda NO PLAY if < -160 or > -175

[ShivaBowl]

Scientific Approach (SA)
07/17/10

WAS
TAM
TOR
SDP if <-175
LAA if <-175
CWS if >+139

[Joe Dogs]

Sportrends has an error on the Texas Rangers having a 3 game losing streak....They beat Boston last night.

[Formulawiz]

Sportrends has an error on the Texas Rangers having a 3 game losing streak....They beat Boston last night.

I noticed that too. TEX still a play

[barts185]

Scientific Approach (SA)
07/17/10

WAS
TAM
TOR
SDP if <-175
LAA if <-175
CWS if >+139

Isn't TAM filtered out since NYY are on a 2 game win streak?

Wouldn't SDP have to get to -160 in order for there to be a 25 cent difference since the Proj ML is -185?

Isn't CLE in game 2 a play at -125 or better (they are currently the dog, and the streak filter won't come into play because it will either be CLE win 2 DET lose 3 or CLE lose 1 DET win 1) ?

Do CWS have to be +139 or better, or does MIN have to be -139 or worse? Would be nice to be consistent.



But maybe I just don't understand.

[Formulawiz]

Guys whoever is posting the SA plays needs to stop until they understand the system. Your confusing the entire thread and giving out the wrong plays. In addition theres too much noise going on where people are confused asking too many questions.

Here are the SA plays

WAS, NYY, BAL, CLE, CWS

Anything else is incorrect.

Can the person who is posting the plays contact me. We need to talk.

[barts185]

Guys whoever is posting the SA plays needs to stop until they understand the system. Your confusing the entire thread and giving out the wrong plays. In addition theres too much noise going on where people are confused asking too many questions.

Here are the SA plays

WAS, NYY, BAL, CLE, CWS

Anything else is incorrect.

Can the person who is posting the plays contact me. We need to talk.

Gee, people confused? After you've done SOO MUCH to clarify the systems? Shocking.


And how is TOR not an SA play today?

Proj ML BAL +205 / TOR -205

Actual ML using current SBR on the first page, BAL +125 TOR -139

Both pitchers have 20 or more innings pitched.

BAL 1 game losing streak
TOR 1 game winning streak

Not that this is a criteria anymore, but TOR even has the 1+ run overlay on their side.


Yet TOR supposedly isn't a play.



And you wonder why people are confused?


Here's an idea - define the systems, like it's been asked MANY times.


Even just answer the straightforward questions where other posters have given examples and you just need to answer a simple question.


MAYBE, just MAYBE, that will cause less confusion.


adding

So in the NYY / TAM game, Proj ML is NYY +205 / TAM -205.

Actual line is NYY -134 / TAM +121.

And you're saying that NYY is an SA play? (They are a ML play)

Any chance YOU'RE confused between the ML and the SA systems?

[madness]

Guys whoever is posting the SA plays needs to stop until they understand the system. Your confusing the entire thread and giving out the wrong plays. In addition theres too much noise going on where people are confused asking too many questions.

Here are the SA plays

WAS, NYY, BAL, CLE, CWS

Anything else is incorrect.

Can the person who is posting the plays contact me. We need to talk.

I feel i understand the SA system pretty well and also am confused as to NYY and Baltimore being plays. I show Tampa would be a play except for streak filter and i do show Toronto is a play that would pass all filters.