System Integrity?

allenc85 · 04-30-10, 07:29 AM

Ouch Dodgers, can somebody post the two plays for today... On a mobile phone so its difficult to view the lines

do5000 · 04-30-10, 07:36 AM

i have LAD as the play for today.

mminkovski · 05-01-10, 01:37 AM

Rays vs KC

floridagolfer · 05-01-10, 02:21 AM

Saturday's play is Tampa Bay.

Here are the season stats through the month of April.

If you skipped the first two weeks of the season, the overall record is 7-0 with five A wins, one C and one D.
If you've played the entire season, the overall record is 14-0 with eight A wins, two B, two C and two D.

Blargh · 05-01-10, 03:20 AM

I started on April 7th.
This is how it has been for me
Chase Record: 13-0
Individual Game Record: 13-11
Average Line equal to -97 (too late at night to do the math and the average will rise as season goes on)
Total Bet: 44.8u
Total won: 13u
ROI on Total Bet: 29%
Min Bankroll Needed: 13.6u

I have a slight diff on chases: 7a, 2b, 3c, 1d. I assume Aug 6th was a loss? That would make one of the C chases into a D if I had started on Aug 6th.

allenc85 · 05-01-10, 06:32 AM

When I get home I'll tally up the Chase 2's record, but off the top of my head I can tell you it will be very similar to Chase 1, with one D bet that I know of and maybe one more. Let's keep this going...

Chase 2 today is the Mariners, and it's an A bet. Yesterday's was the Yanks... BOL guys

do5000 · 05-01-10, 08:53 AM

has anybody noticed that sometimes the opening line at sbr changes. not a lot, but ive seen numbers at say -250 the night before, then -235 the morning of.

mminkovski · 05-02-10, 12:17 AM

I am facing a D bet on STL vs CIN

floridagolfer · 05-02-10, 02:41 AM

Originally posted by do5000

has anybody noticed that sometimes the opening line at sbr changes. not a lot, but ive seen numbers at say -250 the night before, then -235 the morning of.

Really? Anyone else?

I've never noticed this because I'm rarely checking lines more than once a day. I'd love some kind of explanation.

fjordo · 05-02-10, 07:46 AM

Pinnacle has the Dodgers at -241, and the Cards at -240 right now. I'm not sure who opened as the favourite though. Who is everyone playing today?

maxidodge · 05-02-10, 08:24 AM

Hi guys!

Does anybody knows what is the percentage of time the Huge Favorite of the day wins?

do5000 · 05-02-10, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

Really? Anyone else?

I've never noticed this because I'm rarely checking lines more than once a day. I'd love some kind of explanation.

i'm going to check tonight and then again tomorrow morning. the changes ive noticed are never huge, but it could affect a possible-tie breaker.

allenc85 · 05-02-10, 11:15 AM

do5000 - have you customized you books list? As mentioned before I have, and sometimes when I check the odds page it has the default list there, with Pinnacle first, then I go back to check and it has my customized list, with BetJamaica first. If you have it customized that may be why the lines sometimes have varying opening lines.

maxidodge - I'm tracking both the top two chases, which are the top two opening ML favorites played on the 1.5 RL and the -1RL. My winning % is 54.29% through 70 plays, but this number is a little misleading since many times the Chase 2 has two bets, because I play it as a -1RL so it requires two bets. I'd say right now they are winning very close to half the time, but this thread isn't just about betting the opening favorite, it's chasing a unit through a series of 6 bets. Right now I'm up 13 units for chase 1 and 13 units for chase 2, total of +26 units.

As for the plays today, I have the Cardinals opening at -260 and the Dodgers at -235. Both Chases are in B bets. BOL

do5000 · 05-02-10, 03:37 PM

in the "scoreboard" section i have NYY -300 and CHW at -170 for opening numbers for may 3.
ill check back tomorrow to see if they are the same.

i dont have sbr personalized, but i do have pinnacle as the first book listed.

mminkovski · 05-02-10, 11:05 PM

That's correct, Yankees are huge favorite today

allenc85 · 05-03-10, 10:11 AM

I got the same thing Do5000, both bets will be A bets... bol fellas

mminkovski · 05-03-10, 11:10 PM

nice one Yankees

allenc85 · 05-04-10, 07:37 AM

Looks like Yankees are the favorite again and the Dodgers are the Chase 2 play, both A bets

SkivChef · 05-04-10, 11:45 PM

way to go yanks

mminkovski · 05-05-10, 12:39 AM

it looks like yankees will get the lowest odds again

floridagolfer · 05-05-10, 06:20 AM

Originally posted by mminkovski

it looks like yankees will get the lowest odds again

Yep. They've got two straight RL wins scoring only four runs each time. That might be a bit out of the ordinary, but we'll take 'em.

do5000 · 05-05-10, 07:38 AM

i'm out of town for the weekend with no reliable internet, so gl to everybody and lets hope for continued success!

eberetta1 · 05-05-10, 08:05 AM

Have not made my first baseball bet. Still looking at possible systems.

Prime1 · 05-05-10, 09:21 AM

AllenC,

The Yankees will be the Fav1, on an "A" bet today.

When you do the Fav2 today, will it be the Dodgers as a "B" bet?

pelos879 · 05-05-10, 10:17 AM

The only bad thing about this system is when 2 teams are the highest opening favorite... Happened a bunch of times last year and can get a bit annoying.

xmen · 05-05-10, 05:01 PM

Yanks sneak it out... Good win for those following.

DukeJohn · 05-05-10, 08:24 PM

Originally posted by eberetta1

Have not made my first baseball bet. Still looking at possible systems.

Most systems in the MLB involve a chase of some sort. The 3 game series are set up for it, but if you are starting out, I would suggest, following a particular capper that is posting and only bet 1 unit plays for now; while you get your feet wet. Keep in mind, most people lose in Sports Betting, only a very small actually make a profit and smaller still are those that do this for a living.

BoL,

mminkovski · 05-06-10, 12:06 AM

Originally posted by pelos879

The only bad thing about this system is when 2 teams are the highest opening favorite... Happened a bunch of times last year and can get a bit annoying.

I spread my stake between both teams

floridagolfer · 05-06-10, 06:13 AM

For Thursday, it's Roy Halladay and the Phillies (approximately -250 to open) trying to tie a season high with four straight A wins.

xmen · 05-06-10, 09:16 AM

I like the Phillies chances today...

mminkovski · 05-07-10, 01:01 AM

Friday - STL @ PIT -230
MIN vs BAL -227

floridagolfer · 05-07-10, 06:33 AM

Originally posted by mminkovski

Friday - STL @ PIT -230
MIN vs BAL -227

This is just the second time this season, since Philadelphia on Opening Day, that the biggest opening ML favorite is a road team.

Let's make it five straight A winners, Cards.

xmen · 05-07-10, 09:45 AM

Cards today... Do you guys only go by opening lines?

slapshot · 05-07-10, 09:58 AM

this system is doing fantastically well...been playing only 1 game per day since season start..........biggest ml favorite -1......been flying so far

allenc85 · 05-07-10, 11:06 AM

I've been away for the last few days, but from what I gather Chase 2 is on a D bet due to the Dodgers losing A and B and the Twins losing last night as the C bet. My book has the Twins opening at -240 and the Cardinals at -220 today, so I'm playing the Twins as an A bet in Chase 1 and the Cardinals as a D bet in Chase 2. BOL