found 2008:
Originally Posted by ScreaminPain
First, let me preface this with a disclaimer as to EXACT accuracy.
I've gone thru 2008 from May 1st thru Aug. 31st. I used opening lines and rounded to the dollar. In 2 instances the game that included "largest favorite" for that day was postponed due to weather, so I used the 2nd largest fav.
Results were 121 plays
1 6-game chase
1 5-game chase
6 4-game chases
7 3-game chases
**- the rest were either 1 or 2 game chases.
Aug. 31st ended up +65.6 units
Some interesting facts. During entire mo. of Aug. you had to lay odds on the run line....in one case -155 (yikes). In the month of May only 9 plays were at (-) money with the largest lay being -115 twice. Aug. had NO chases longer than 2 games.
Inherent with chases, is the fact you'll need to lay a big number to get back previous losses. The largest amount needed was for the single 6 game chase in July. If you were using $10 units, a lay of $327 was required......figure your own value if you chose different units.
It's apparent that this method will work, but of course, ALL chases will work if you have the bankroll. I guess it's up to individual preferences to determine if the reward is worth the risk.
This was a pain in the butt to compile, however it may answer some questions. As always, good luck with you action."
I assume this data i the -1.5RL. so $10 units, for a 4 game chase:
119-2 (WOW!)
lets assume, as before, that a series loss is -28 units... so we would be at:
0 series losses: +117U
1 series loss: +89 units
2 series losses: +61 units (what 2008 would have landed on)
3 losses: +34U
4 losses: +6U
lets hope it wouldn't go further than that.
for 3 game chase, there were 8 losses. so 113-8. Each loss=12 units. So thats 96 units right there. So the season is only at +17 units overall.
I think the 4 game chase is the way to go. Any other input out there?
Originally Posted by ScreaminPain
First, let me preface this with a disclaimer as to EXACT accuracy.
I've gone thru 2008 from May 1st thru Aug. 31st. I used opening lines and rounded to the dollar. In 2 instances the game that included "largest favorite" for that day was postponed due to weather, so I used the 2nd largest fav.
Results were 121 plays
1 6-game chase
1 5-game chase
6 4-game chases
7 3-game chases
**- the rest were either 1 or 2 game chases.
Aug. 31st ended up +65.6 units
Some interesting facts. During entire mo. of Aug. you had to lay odds on the run line....in one case -155 (yikes). In the month of May only 9 plays were at (-) money with the largest lay being -115 twice. Aug. had NO chases longer than 2 games.
Inherent with chases, is the fact you'll need to lay a big number to get back previous losses. The largest amount needed was for the single 6 game chase in July. If you were using $10 units, a lay of $327 was required......figure your own value if you chose different units.
It's apparent that this method will work, but of course, ALL chases will work if you have the bankroll. I guess it's up to individual preferences to determine if the reward is worth the risk.
This was a pain in the butt to compile, however it may answer some questions. As always, good luck with you action."
I assume this data i the -1.5RL. so $10 units, for a 4 game chase:
119-2 (WOW!)
lets assume, as before, that a series loss is -28 units... so we would be at:
0 series losses: +117U
1 series loss: +89 units
2 series losses: +61 units (what 2008 would have landed on)
3 losses: +34U
4 losses: +6U
lets hope it wouldn't go further than that.
for 3 game chase, there were 8 losses. so 113-8. Each loss=12 units. So thats 96 units right there. So the season is only at +17 units overall.
I think the 4 game chase is the way to go. Any other input out there?
